Futures hedging dilemma...any suggestions?

[Fthenorm]

I have a .4 unit bet on Gonzo to win the French Open that will pay 40 units if he wins. It appears he has a decent shot at Soderling in the semis but his chances of overtaking fed in the finals will be difficult. I seek a strategy to take at least 10-15 units profit out of this (maybe more/ maybe less), regardless of if Gonzo wins it all or not. Considering the extent of potential chalk Fed may offer in a Gonzo/Fed Final (remember it was -800/+425 ish when they met in australia a few years ago, though I am sure it will be less if they meet again), is it safest to lay X units on Soderling in the next round, and also lay a prop bet for Fed to win it all? This may take DP's chances out of the picture, so perhaps he deserves a small unit lay against fed as well?

After how Fed played today, I do not like Gonzo's chances quite as much as before.

There are still infinite possibilities considering the possible finals combinations and offered lines. Any insight from those with tennis futures hedging experience would be more than appreciated. A few opinions would be very helpful before I proceed. Thanks

[SBR Lou]

I wouldn't even consider hedging, you made a great play and there's no sense chopping away at your value unless the .4 unit bet is significant to you. Gonzo will probably be +400ish in the finals, incredible equity.

[reno cool]

You need to figure out what your bet is currently worth.
If your bet wins 40 units and you will have to lay -800 to hedge a final(and you haven't gotten to that stage yet) your bets value is probably no more than a couiple units.

[EaglesPhan36]

Let it ride.

[andywend]

Fthenorm, this should be a good lesson NEVER to bet on longer priced tennis players to win a major championship as there is NEVER any value in doing so.

Even though Soderling got rid of Nadal for you and Gonzalez made it to the quarterfinals, the positive equity in your bet was still minimal.

Hopefully you hedged with Soderling.

[EaglesPhan36]

What's wrong with that shot? At the end of the day if your guy is in the final, you have a 50-50 shot to cash. And Gonzalez has a legit shot to be in the final pairing. Pretty sure .4 units on a long shot is better than 2 units on -300 for Nadal at this point.

[xyz]

Currently the price for Gonzalez to not win the French Open is -590 to -600 on Matchbook. So if you hedge there, you should keep a nice chunk of your profit.

[u21c3f6]

My recommendation would be to hedge. I personally hedge almost everything I do but I also make the initial wager with the knowledge that I intend to hedge.

In this case at -600, you will be able to guarantee a 5.37 unit win regardless of the outcome. To go for more return will probably mean that you will also have to take on additional risk in the form of a lesser guarantee or even a possible loss.

I like smaller consistent gains that help my bankroll zig-zag higher rather than wilder swings as one might experience in focusing on longshots. This is my comfort zone. If I hedged in your situation and Gonzalez went on to win, it would not bother me in the least. I know for the few times I may have been able to win the big prize, there would be many more times when I would have made nothing. The end results over time would probably be close but I find it easier to increase my bankroll as well as my wagers with consistent smaller gains than trying to manage a bankroll that has larger fluctuations. It is a personal decision.

You are in a great position and good luck with whatever you decide. Joe.

[Ganchrow]

See http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html and http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...tml#post605957.

[SBR Lou]

After doing some research, I have concluded hedging is actually the right play here.

One of the only arguments you could make against it, however, is if you believe the market is still undervaluing Gonzalez with his current price.

[single shaker]

hedge it dude, no doubt get something back

[reno cool]

My recommendation would be to hedge. I personally hedge almost everything I do but I also make the initial wager with the knowledge that I intend to hedge.

In this case at -600, you will be able to guarantee a 5.37 unit win regardless of the outcome. To go for more return will probably mean that you will also have to take on additional risk in the form of a lesser guarantee or even a possible loss.

I like smaller consistent gains that help my bankroll zig-zag higher rather than wilder swings as one might experience in focusing on longshots. This is my comfort zone. If I hedged in your situation and Gonzalez went on to win, it would not bother me in the least. I know for the few times I may have been able to win the big prize, there would be many more times when I would have made nothing. The end results over time would probably be close but I find it easier to increase my bankroll as well as my wagers with consistent smaller gains than trying to manage a bankroll that has larger fluctuations. It is a personal decision.

You are in a great position and good luck with whatever you decide. Joe.

This is an interesting strategy. Of course, I presume this lets you bet a lot more initially.

[u21c3f6]

This is an interesting strategy. Of course, I presume this lets you bet a lot more initially.

That is correct. When I know I am going to hedge, my typical initial wager is 10% of my bankroll. Dependent upon other factors such as the type of wager and/or additional wagers at the same time, my initial wager may range from 5-20% of bankroll.

In practice, based on a 10% initial wager, I very rarely have more than 3% of my bankroll at actual risk and I shoot for a 1-2% of bankroll win. Hedging across markets also allows me to set-up opportunities for a possible 5-20% of bankroll win for little or no additional risk.

Joe.