Sooooo. It's Rogers Cup time. I usually do a futures write up before each week, and regardless of whether you like betting on futures or not, hopefully you find it an interesting read.
ATP
When I look at each tournament, I research who won it the last year. I'm sure a lot of you know, but the points system takes into account the last 52 weeks (more or less). You get a certain amount of points for how far you get into a tournament. If you return the next year and fail to reach that same level, you lose points (and fall in the rankings). If you get to that same level, you get those points again. If you surpass that level, you get more points. Unfortunately, those that win it one year are unable to gain more points when they return, but it means they have a LOT of points to defend. That generally (note: generally) means that try a lot harder to win - something that is always appreciated. There is nothing worse than seeing Fabio Fognini sitting at the back of the court trying to drop shot his way out of trouble at 3-1 down in the last set.
So, last year, Murray won it. Djokovic lost in the final. The other two semi-finalists were Chardy (don't ask me how) and Nishikori. Tsonga, Nadal, Isner and Gulbis were the other quarterfinalists.
I'm not going to bother going any further down. We have eight guys, one of whom will most likely win it. Murray's not here. Djokovic ($1.67), Chardy ($301) and Nishikori ($13) are all here. Tsonga and Nadal aren't. Isner ($51) and Gulbis ($501) are.
Now, I'm not really suggesting that Chardy or Gulbis are going to win. I would use them as possible smokies for a 'to win a quarter' type bet, but I can't find those odds yet. So, out of those, the only realistic possibilities are Djokovic, Nishikori and MAYBE Isner.
Taking a look at other seeds, I don't think Cilic is huge value because he has a lot of good players in his 'eighth', let alone quarter. You'd imagine Thiem and Wawrinka will meet in the quarterfinals, but Wawrinka holds a 2-1 h2h record, and has the only victory on hard. Nishikori is capable of and should beat anyone in his quarter. Djokovic will be motivated as hell after his Wimbledon loss. Isner lies in his path, though. Djokovic is 8-2 against him, but narrow that down to Masters tournaments in North America and it's 3-2. Regardless though, Djokovic should win, and you couldn't punt on Isner knowing that he's got Novak in his way.
FUN FACT: Djokovic has 'lost' one match on hard court this year - a retirement against Lopez in Dubai. Basically, he hasn't lost on hard court this year.
Raonic has probably got the easiest quarter, but I still think that he's overrated. I also don't like his draw - Zverev, then Fognini, and then Monfils or Goffin (working on probabilities). That's pretty tough, so I'd rather go for a smoky like Monfils, who is in great form.
So, my prediction for the semis:
Djokovic vs. Monfils and Nishikori vs. Wawrinka
I think Djokovic will win through, and Wawrinka should be too strong, setting up a Stan vs. Djoker final.
So, with that in mind:
- Novak Djokovic to WIN - $1.62 (Crownbet) - 10 (TEN) STAKES
- Stan Wawrinka to REACH THE FINAL - $2.88 (Sportsbet.com.au) - THREE STAKES
They also have a 'name the finalists' market on sportsbet, and Stan and Novak are $3.75, which isn't bad.
WTA
Over on the womens side, Bencic beat Halep in the final. Williams and Errani were the other semi-finalists. Vinci, Ivanovic, Radwanska and Tsurenko made up the numbers. Of those, Bencic, Williams, Tsurenko and Ivanovic aren't playing. That leaves Halep, Radwanska, Errani and Vinci as those who have the points to defend.
Kerber actually has a really nice draw until the semi-finals, so I can see her getting there. Halep has it a lot tougher, with possible matches against Gavrilova, Pliskova/Errani and then Kuznetsova/Kvitova. Even so, I think she'll have the motivation to get through.
On the other half, I really like Keys to win her quarter. She'll most likely come up against Radwanska in the quarters, but she has improved so much with her power game that I'm not sure Radwanska will cope.
In the other quarter, Muguruza will win if she plays her best, but I can't count on that. This is the toughest quarter to predict, so I'll throw a hometown smoky in Genie Bouchard in.
My predicted semi-finals:
Kerber vs. Halep and Bouchard vs. Keys
I think Kerber with her recent history and increased level will be able to beat Halep. I would love Genie to win but it probably won't happen, so I'll take Keys to get into the final.
So... Kerber vs. Keys.
Because I'm unsure, I'm going to go with fewer stakes.
- Kerber to WIN - $9 (BET365) - ONE STAKE
- Keys to MAKE THE FINAL - $8 (Crownbet) - ONE STAKE
Let's hope for a successful tournament!
ATP
When I look at each tournament, I research who won it the last year. I'm sure a lot of you know, but the points system takes into account the last 52 weeks (more or less). You get a certain amount of points for how far you get into a tournament. If you return the next year and fail to reach that same level, you lose points (and fall in the rankings). If you get to that same level, you get those points again. If you surpass that level, you get more points. Unfortunately, those that win it one year are unable to gain more points when they return, but it means they have a LOT of points to defend. That generally (note: generally) means that try a lot harder to win - something that is always appreciated. There is nothing worse than seeing Fabio Fognini sitting at the back of the court trying to drop shot his way out of trouble at 3-1 down in the last set.
So, last year, Murray won it. Djokovic lost in the final. The other two semi-finalists were Chardy (don't ask me how) and Nishikori. Tsonga, Nadal, Isner and Gulbis were the other quarterfinalists.
I'm not going to bother going any further down. We have eight guys, one of whom will most likely win it. Murray's not here. Djokovic ($1.67), Chardy ($301) and Nishikori ($13) are all here. Tsonga and Nadal aren't. Isner ($51) and Gulbis ($501) are.
Now, I'm not really suggesting that Chardy or Gulbis are going to win. I would use them as possible smokies for a 'to win a quarter' type bet, but I can't find those odds yet. So, out of those, the only realistic possibilities are Djokovic, Nishikori and MAYBE Isner.
Taking a look at other seeds, I don't think Cilic is huge value because he has a lot of good players in his 'eighth', let alone quarter. You'd imagine Thiem and Wawrinka will meet in the quarterfinals, but Wawrinka holds a 2-1 h2h record, and has the only victory on hard. Nishikori is capable of and should beat anyone in his quarter. Djokovic will be motivated as hell after his Wimbledon loss. Isner lies in his path, though. Djokovic is 8-2 against him, but narrow that down to Masters tournaments in North America and it's 3-2. Regardless though, Djokovic should win, and you couldn't punt on Isner knowing that he's got Novak in his way.
FUN FACT: Djokovic has 'lost' one match on hard court this year - a retirement against Lopez in Dubai. Basically, he hasn't lost on hard court this year.
Raonic has probably got the easiest quarter, but I still think that he's overrated. I also don't like his draw - Zverev, then Fognini, and then Monfils or Goffin (working on probabilities). That's pretty tough, so I'd rather go for a smoky like Monfils, who is in great form.
So, my prediction for the semis:
Djokovic vs. Monfils and Nishikori vs. Wawrinka
I think Djokovic will win through, and Wawrinka should be too strong, setting up a Stan vs. Djoker final.
So, with that in mind:
- Novak Djokovic to WIN - $1.62 (Crownbet) - 10 (TEN) STAKES
- Stan Wawrinka to REACH THE FINAL - $2.88 (Sportsbet.com.au) - THREE STAKES
They also have a 'name the finalists' market on sportsbet, and Stan and Novak are $3.75, which isn't bad.
WTA
Over on the womens side, Bencic beat Halep in the final. Williams and Errani were the other semi-finalists. Vinci, Ivanovic, Radwanska and Tsurenko made up the numbers. Of those, Bencic, Williams, Tsurenko and Ivanovic aren't playing. That leaves Halep, Radwanska, Errani and Vinci as those who have the points to defend.
Kerber actually has a really nice draw until the semi-finals, so I can see her getting there. Halep has it a lot tougher, with possible matches against Gavrilova, Pliskova/Errani and then Kuznetsova/Kvitova. Even so, I think she'll have the motivation to get through.
On the other half, I really like Keys to win her quarter. She'll most likely come up against Radwanska in the quarters, but she has improved so much with her power game that I'm not sure Radwanska will cope.
In the other quarter, Muguruza will win if she plays her best, but I can't count on that. This is the toughest quarter to predict, so I'll throw a hometown smoky in Genie Bouchard in.
My predicted semi-finals:
Kerber vs. Halep and Bouchard vs. Keys
I think Kerber with her recent history and increased level will be able to beat Halep. I would love Genie to win but it probably won't happen, so I'll take Keys to get into the final.
So... Kerber vs. Keys.
Because I'm unsure, I'm going to go with fewer stakes.
- Kerber to WIN - $9 (BET365) - ONE STAKE
- Keys to MAKE THE FINAL - $8 (Crownbet) - ONE STAKE
Let's hope for a successful tournament!
