yisman's ATP/WTA picks thread

[B1Bomber]

just like I said

Knocks out a hot davydenko..then loses to nobody special

A "hot Davydenko?" Seriously??? This guy is the poster-boy for Russian-Mob puppets...he should be jailed...and as far as Safin...Safin & Davydenko would be cell-mates in a just world (if such a world existed)

[yisman]

Oh man...did anyone else follow the Wickmayer / Cornet match today? 19! break chances in a 1-hour, 49-minute match! Betting chick-tennis at this point is pure folly (sorry to quote myself)

It's simply not true. Repeating it doesn't change anything. Yes, women's tennis can be unpredictable. You can still make money by making smart bets. That includes not betting on players like Zvonareva and Clijsters who are huge chalk over players who are not scrubs.

Smart tennis betting works all year round, and you're not going to get burned by picking quality underdogs, except by the occasional retirement.

= 4 pts

?

[yisman]

A "hot Davydenko?" Seriously??? This guy is the poster-boy for Russian-Mob puppets...he should be jailed...and as far as Safin...Safin & Davydenko would be cell-mates in a just world (if such a world existed)

Betting on Davydenko as chalk is folly. I'll allow that. He has been known to throw matches before, and it's far too risky to lay chalk with him.


By the way, thanks for the points, beekaar.

[Ulver86]

nice call on Schnyder yisman, tailed you for a small amt on that

[B1Bomber]

[quote=yisman;2430985]It's simply not true. Repeating it doesn't change anything. Yes, women's tennis can be unpredictable. You can still make money by making smart bets. That includes not betting on players like Zvonareva and Clijsters who are huge chalk over players who are not scrubs.

Smart tennis betting works all year round, and you're not going to get burned by picking quality underdogs, except by the occasional retirement.


I must disagree w / your conclusions...betting WTA / ATP during this notorious yearly down-time can be deadly...players don't care ( most just show up for their appearance fee) ...sponsors don't care...every single match is a coin-toss...top players quit w / a hangnail...happens every year


Luckily I made a nice profit on Wickmayer today (pure luck) so I'm not complaining but I was just LUCKY

I would not classify Schnyder as a chump, but doesn't her victory today bear some fruit in support of the meaningless of post-September tennis?

[ghn999]

Looking good.

[RobbReport]

the russian mob is a mafia's mafia. OCD Psycho Vera Z. probably got strongarmed into losing. Usually she get's real panicky when she's down but not this time...smooth sailing to a loss. I bet the kremlin cup is like christmas come early to the red mafia. of course some of these heavy favorites just suck on any given day.

[yisman]

I must disagree w / your conclusions...betting WTA / ATP during this notorious yearly down-time can be deadly...players don't care ( most just show up for their appearance fee) ...sponsors don't care...every single match is a coin-toss...top players quit w / a hangnail...happens every year

Even if every single match were a coin-toss, it would make everything especially easy. A great time for betting.

I would not classify Schnyder as a chump, but doesn't her victory today bear some fruit in support of the meaningless of post-September tennis?

Maybe, maybe not. Either way, it was a great spot for bettors to take a huge line.

Don't you see? You say it's completely unpredictable. I'd love a sport which was completely unpredictable where you were still getting lines like you saw on Zvonareva and Clijsters today. You could make a killing.

[yisman]

the russian mob is a mafia's mafia. OCD Psycho Vera Z. probably got strongarmed into losing. Usually she get's real panicky when she's down but not this time...smooth sailing to a loss. I bet the kremlin cup is like christmas come early to the red mafia. of course some of these heavy favorites just suck on any given day.

Yep.

I don't like the fact that they're holding matches in Russia, at all.

[B1Bomber]

Even if every single match were a coin-toss, it would make everything especially easy. A great time for betting.



Maybe, maybe not. Either way, it was a great spot for bettors to take a huge line.

Don't you see? You say it's completely unpredictable. I'd love a sport which was completely unpredictable where you were still getting lines like you saw on Zvonareva and Clijsters today. You could make a killing.

Yes I do see...and that's my point. Congratulations on Schnyder (I've always adored her regardless)

Slightly off the topic...when I was a kid growing up in Cleveland, my cousin married a Russian guy (he was right off the boat if you will) in a church named Alysious of Russian Orthodox (my spelling is all messed up I'm sure). It was the same church where the "Deer Hunter" wedding was filmed. Anyway, at the reception there was a full bottle of vodka in front of EVERY place-setting...it was crazy...I was 9 years old and stumbled out of there like a truly seasoned Russian drunk...those folks DO NOT mess around

[yisman]

I don't think you understand. You said you see, but then you say anyone who bets tennis during the non-major seasons is crazy.

The increased "anyone can win" factor makes it easier to make money, not harder.

Back to the Schnyder thing, the reason I picked her and not other huge underdogs is because she's been underrated for quite a while now, and it was reflected in the line.

[yisman]

Schiavone over Kirilenko is worth a look. Not making it a part of my picks, though.

I like Cuevas over Kukushkin. I'll make that an official pick soon.

It's the only one for the pre-7 AM EDT matches.

[yisman]

Cuevas over Kukushkin -128, risk 2 units
Govortsova over Dushevina +210, risk 3 units


will come back in the late morning to look at the last few matches.

[yisman]

Garcia-Lopez over Soderling +1400, risk .4 units

[Enogsiwon]

I just put $100 on baghdatis to win $27.40.. How much of a Tennis Square am I?

1-10..

[yisman]

8

[Enogsiwon]

8

[yisman]

Monaco over Ouanna -128, risk 2.56 units

Line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I guess Ouanna is getting a bump because the tournament is in his home country.

[StraitShooter]

Monaco over Ouanna -128, risk 2.56 units

Line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I guess Ouanna is getting a bump because the tournament is in his home country.

The line looked like a set up

almost too good to be true

monaco a veteran of many majors against fellow clay court specialist who dwells in mostly challenger series until recently

Heck of a nice call..Monaco steam rolled him

[yisman]

one late play:

Gil over Koubek +128, risk 1 unit

[ACoochy]

Cheers yisman. Tailed you on Monaco pick, almost too good to be true

[yisman]

sure seemed that way.

A lot of strange matchups today without a lot to go on. I'll make a few picks anyway, but tread lightly.

Zeballos over Schukin -120.5, risk 2.41 units
Greul over Anderson -143, risk 1.43 units
Fognini over Marchenko -107.5, risk 2.15 units
Ram over Guez +134, risk 1 unit

[yisman]

Ramirez Hidalgo over Hrbaty +300, risk 3 units
Cuevas over Kunitsyn +104, risk 1.5 units

[pat venditto]

Whats your YTD?

[shantystar]

hope both your plays ruined yisman !

[PASS IT ON]

Whats your YTD?

was gonna ask the same question, are u making profit each year, month, week???

good luck

[yisman]

I'm up overall. I'll start scoring this thread again.

More today:

Koellerer over Nieminen +184, risk 2 units

[yisman]

May 2009: 95-128, +73.16

June 2009 (through 6/4): 5-6, +6.227

[yisman]

6/5

live betting:

Del Potro +122, risk 3 units

Betfair odds. 6-3 4-3 now

more live betting:

Del Potro +275, risk 1 unit

Federer +152, risk 3 units

+.56

6/6:

WTA final:

Kuznetsova over Safina +215, risk 3 units

Kuznetsova wins 2-1 +493, risk 2 units

1-1, +4.45

6/7:

Soderling over Federer +350, risk 3 units (Betfair)
Soderling to win 3-2 +969, risk 1 unit (Pinnacle)
Federer to win 3-2 +614, risk 1 unit (Pinnacle)
Soderling +5.5 (-106), risk 1.06 units

0-4. -6.06

June 2009 (through 6/7): 6-11, +5.18

[yisman]

Internet not working well, so I'll just grab one quick pick.

Hanescu over Becker +150, risk 5 units

0-1, -5

Navarro over Dimitrov +150, risk 10 units

0-1, -10

add:

Fognini over Anderson +250, risk 7 units - L
Hernandez over Youzhny +740, risk 2 units - W
Andujar over Malisse +580, risk 1 unit - R
Schuettler over Gicquel +166, risk 1 unit - W

6/8: 2-3, -5.54 units

A.Martin over Gulbis +680, risk .4 units - W
Koellerer over Benneteau +340, risk 1.5 units - L
Vliegen over Roddick +2400, risk .3 units - L
Phau over Kohlschreiber +680, risk 2 units - L
C.Rochus over Beck +340, risk 1 unit - L
Troicki over Kiefer +182, risk 3 units - L
Golubev over Monfils +580, risk 1 unit - L

6/9: 1-6, -6.08

Schuettler over Becker +128, risk 3 units - L
Tursunov over Kohlschreiber +215, risk 1.5 units - L
Seppi over Murray +1350, risk 1 unit - L
Martin over Darcis +320, risk 2 units - L
Mathieu over Ferrero -141, risk 2.82 units - L
Simon over Dimitrov -217, risk 3 units - W
Cilic over Mahut -200, risk 4 units - L
Gil over Hewitt +950, risk 1.5 units - L

Tursunov over Kohlschreiber +250, risk 1.5 units

6/10: 1-7, -15.94 units


June 2009 (through 6/10): 10-27, -22.38

[yisman]

ATP

Rochus over Petzschner +144, risk 1 unit: W +1.44
Garcia-Lopez over Murray +2000, risk .3 units: L -.3
Serra over Djokovic +2000, risk .3 units: L -.3
Karlovic over Mahut -145, risk 4.35 units: W +3
Simon over Youzhny +160, risk 4 units: L -4

WTA

Rybarikova over Scheepers -149, risk 2.98 units: W +2

6/11: 3-3, +1.84 units

ATP

Darcis over Ferrero +255, risk 3 units: L -3
Fish over Murray +620, risk 1.5 units: L -1.5
Zverev over Haas +340, risk 2 units: L -2
Karlovic over Roddick +215, risk 1.5 units: L -1.5

WTA

Czink over Mirza +112, risk 4 units: L -4

I'll add more before the late matches start.

add:

Youzhny over Blake +146, risk 1 unit: L -1
Melzer over Djokovic +520, risk .5 units: L -.5
Rybarikova over U.Radwanska +124, risk 3 units: W +3.72

6/12: 1-7, -10.28 units

[yisman]

Kohlschreiber over Haas +160, risk 7 units: L -7

Like a good portion of my underdog plays, this one barely lost. 6-2, 6-7, 6-7

6/13: 0-1, -7

Blake over Murray +640, risk 4 units: L -4

6/14: 0-1, -4

Robredo over Baghdatis +156, risk 5 units WTA A.Bondarenko over Rybarikova -128, risk 4.5 units Dechy over Cibulkova +260, risk .5 units

Robredo lost, Rybarikova withdrew, nulling what likely would've been a winner, and Dechy won.

add: Zvonareva over Mauresmo +124, risk 2.5 units: L -2.5

6/16: 1-2, -6.2 units

ATP Schuettler over Becker +150, risk 1.5 units Navarro over Sluiter -120.5, risk 5 units WTA Tanasugarn over Safina +440, risk 2 units Schiavone over Wickmayer +192, risk 3 units

Brutal loss by Schiavone. 6-7 6-2 3-6

6/19: 1-3, -.7 units


June 2009 (through 6/19): 16-44, -48.72

[yisman]

first pick
Lu over Federer v +9400, risk .1 units: L -.1

ATP

Serra over Kohlschreiber +390, risk 4 units L -4
Calleri over Garcia-Lopez +580, risk 1 unit: L -1
Gonzalez over Minar r +240, risk 1.5 units: L -1.5
Seppi over Blake v +440, risk .5 units: W +2.2
Golubev over Tsonga v +1450, risk .4 units: L -.4
Koellerer over Bolelli v +660, risk 1 unit: L -1
Hernych over Tipsarevic v +380, risk 1.5 units: L -1.5
Sela over S.Gonzalez -192, risk 3 units: W +1.56
Schuettler over Malisse -115, risk 1.15 units: W +1


WTA

Sprem over Kulikova +116, risk 3 units: L -3
Groenefeld over Mirza +160, risk 3 units: L -3
Schnyder over Sugiyama +126, risk 4 units: L -4
Peer over Camerin 100, risk 2.5 units: W +2.5

ok, I'll come back later with picks for late morning.

Koellerer led 2 sets to nil and dropped the last three.

adding more...

Koubek +250, risk 1 unit: W +2.5
Vliegen +250, risk 2 units: W +5

Larcher de Brito +200, risk 2 units: W +4
Morita +295, risk 1 unit: L -1

Darcis +150, risk 1.5 units: W +2.25
Cornet +156, risk 2 units: L-2

6/22: 8-12, -1.49 units

[yisman]

went through every men's match in the morning.

One lean and one strong pick.

Lean: Koellerer over Lopez +188, risk 1 unit
Strong pick: Monaco over Llodra +104, risk 10 units

Another absurd line with Monaco versus a Frenchman in France.

[Dink87522]

Thanks, I'll look into that.