yisman's ATP/WTA picks thread

[yisman]

Decided to consolidate it.

record: 12-9, +7.415

[yisman]

May 4 WTA picks

ok, WTA picks posted. Will try to post ATP picks later.


WTA

Rybarikova (+215) over Razzano, risk .5 units
Wozniak (+200) over Errani, risk 4 units
Szavay (+270) over Wozniacki, risk 1 unit
Craybas (+280) over Vesnina, risk .25 units
K.Bondarenko (+235) over Vinci, risk 2 units
Safarova (+580) over V.Williams, risk .5 units
A.Bondarenko (+380) over Radwanska, risk 1 unit
Kleybanova (-175) over Rezai, risk 5 units
Pironkova (+520) over Pennetta, risk 1 unit
Chakvetadze (+310) over Garrigues, risk 2 units
Mattek (+134) over Garbin, risk 2 units

odds from Betfair

[yisman]

May 4 ATP picks

Gicquel (-150) over Andujar, risk 2 units
Devilder (+170) over Rochus, risk 1 unit
Phau (+440) over Kohlschreiber, risk 2 units
Fish (-145) over Gabashvili, risk 2.9 units
Chardy (+106) over Korolev, risk 5 units
Hernandez (-133) over Machado, risk 2.66 units
Granollers (-278) over Krajinovic, risk 3 units

odds from Betfair

[yisman]

so far

WTA

Rybarikova (+215) over Razzano, risk .5 units
Wozniak (+200) over Errani, risk 4 units: +8
Szavay (+270) over Wozniacki, risk 1 unit: -1
Craybas (+280) over Vesnina, risk .25 units
K.Bondarenko (+235) over Vinci, risk 2 units
Safarova (+580) over V.Williams, risk .5 units
A.Bondarenko (+380) over Radwanska, risk 1 unit
Kleybanova (-175) over Rezai, risk 5 units: -5
Pironkova (+520) over Pennetta, risk 1 unit: -1
Chakvetadze (+310) over Garrigues, risk 2 units: +6.2
Mattek (+134) over Garbin, risk 2 units: +2.68

odds from Betfair

Gicquel (-150) over Andujar, risk 2 units
Devilder (+170) over Rochus, risk 1 unit: Interrupted
Phau (+440) over Kohlschreiber, risk 2 units: retired
Fish (-145) over Gabashvili, risk 2.9 units
Chardy (+106) over Korolev, risk 5 units
Hernandez (-133) over Machado, risk 2.66 units: +2
Granollers (-278) over Krajinovic, risk 3 units

odds from Betfair

Gicquel match was somehow pushed back from 6:30 to 9 AM.

[yisman]

Nice day, but I just missed on the huge upsets.

Rybarikova took Razzano the distance (tied 1-1 and then lost 6-4 in the third set).

Craybas lost 6-1, 3-6, 2-6

Safarova lost 2-6, 6-4, 2-6


Could've been really good with the huge odds on those players. Oh well. It was a good try.

[yisman]

argh, Pironkova took the first set and lost as well.

Rybarikova (+215) over Razzano, risk .5 units
Craybas (+280) over Vesnina, risk .25 units
Safarova (+580) over V.Williams, risk .5 units
Pironkova (+520) over Pennetta, risk 1 unit

Really wanted the last one.

Rybarikova, a +215 underdog, lost in three sets.
Craybas, a +280 underdog, lost after taking the first set.
Safarova, a +580 underdog, lost in three sets.
Pironkova, a +520 underdog, lost after taking the first set.

On the plus side, Chakvetadze (+310) won in straight sets.
K.Bondarenko (+235) won in straight sets.
Chardy, a slight underdog, won in straight sets.

[yisman]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5h5-3cCy5OabgHv7a4P6hr5PnlTcQ

Eighth seed Christophe Rochus will return to his first-round match with France's Nicolas Devilder all square in the third set tomorrow after heavy rain forced an early end to day one in Belgrade.
Belgian Rochus had won the first set 6-3 but lost the second on a tie-break before rain forced the players off with the third tied at 5-5.
All of the other scheduled first round matches will be played on Tuesday.

[yisman]

May 5 ATP/WTA

Devilder and Granollers still pending from yesterday.

ATP

Clement (+122) over Darcis, risk 3 units
Schuettler (-128) over De-Bakker, risk 10 units
Junqueira (+265) over Serra, risk 3 units
Kunitsyn (+148) over Starace, risk 5 units
Vassallo Arguello (-159) over Gremelmayr, risk 7 units
Benneteau (-200) over Peya, risk 2 units
Navarro (+184) over Martin, risk 5 units
Kukushkin (+430) over Ferrero, risk 2 units
Gimeno-Traver (+780) over Ferrer, risk .25 units
Petzschner (+420) over Hewitt, risk 1 unit

WTA

Coin (-187) over Salerni, risk 4 units
Flipkens (+780) over Lisicki, risk 1 unit
Piedade (+265) over Ani, risk .5 units
Schnyder (+560) over S.Williams, risk 1 unit
Petrova (-111) over Suarez Navarro, risk 3.33 units
Dulko (+440) over Jankovic, risk .25 units

odds from Betfair

[yisman]

ok, I finished compiling it. Picks above.

[yisman]

Granollers won and Devilder lost to complete my Monday picks.

Disaster strikes today, as my best bet lost.

[yisman]

Monday, May 4


ATP: 5-1, +10.713333... units
WTA: 4-7, +9.63

combined: 9-8, +20.34333...units


overall record after 5/4: 21-17, +27.758333...

[yisman]

ATP

Clement (+122) over Darcis, risk 3 units: Darcis pulled out and Clement beat his replacement
Schuettler (-128) over De-Bakker, risk 10 units: -10
Junqueira (+265) over Serra, risk 3 units: -3
Kunitsyn (+148) over Starace, risk 5 units: -3
Vassallo Arguello (-159) over Gremelmayr, risk 7 units: retired
Benneteau (-200) over Peya, risk 2 units: +1
Navarro (+184) over Martin, risk 5 units: +9.2
Kukushkin (+430) over Ferrero, risk 2 units: -2
Gimeno-Traver (+780) over Ferrer, risk .25 units: -.25
Petzschner (+420) over Hewitt, risk 1 unit: -1

WTA

Coin (-187) over Salerni, risk 4 units: -4
Flipkens (+780) over Lisicki, risk 1 unit: -1
Piedade (+265) over Ani, risk .5 units: -.5
Schnyder (+560) over S.Williams, risk 1 unit: +5.6
Petrova (-111) over Suarez Navarro, risk 3.33 units: +3
Dulko (+440) over Jankovic, risk .25 units: -.25

odds from Betfair

Tuesday, May 5

4-10, -7.2 units


overall record after 5/5: 25-27, +20.558333...

[yisman]

May 6 early ATP

pre-6 AM matches

ATP

Dabul (+168) over Massu, risk 2 units
Fognini (-135) over Gaudio, risk 10 units
Rochus (-137) over Vliegen, risk 2.74 units
Blake (+158) over Gil, risk 10 units


odds from Betfair

[yisman]

May 6 rest of ATP and WTA

Oscar Hernadez (+860) over David Ferrer, risk 1 unit
Marin Cilic (+120) over Kohlschreiber, risk 4 units
Kiefer (+104) over Chardy, risk 2 units
Davydenko (-208) over Ferrero, risk 1.04 units

WTA

Strycova (+300) over Peer, risk 3 units
Govortsova (+146) over Wickmayer, risk 3 units
Barrois (+250) over Groenefeld, risk .5 units
Kirilenko (-400) over Salerni, risk 2 units
Zheng (+470) over Safina, risk 1 unit
Schnyder (+116) over Kanepi, risk 2 units
Chakvetadza (+520) over V.Williams, risk .5 units


Cirstea (over Ani) and Mathieu (over Gremelmayr) I considered, but the price was too prohibitive.

[yisman]

pre-6 am matches

atp

dabul (+168) over massu, risk 2 units: +3.36
fognini (-135) over gaudio, risk 10 units: +7.4
rochus (-137) over vliegen, risk 2.74 units: -2.74
blake (+158) over gil, risk 10 units: +15.8


odds from betfair

3-1, +23.82

[twinky99]

any picks for today yisman?

[yisman]

I'll have picks almost every day. The problem is that I usually don't have time until late to handicap the matches.

I'll submit picks as soon as I can tonight.

[yisman]

Oscar Hernadez (+860) over David Ferrer, risk 1 unit: +8.6
Marin Cilic (+120) over Kohlschreiber, risk 4 units: +4.8
Kiefer (+104) over Chardy, risk 2 units: -2
Davydenko (-208) over Ferrero, risk 1.04 units: +.5

WTA

Strycova (+300) over Peer, risk 3 units: -3
Govortsova (+146) over Wickmayer, risk 3 units: -3
Barrois (+250) over Groenefeld, risk .5 units: -.5
Kirilenko (-400) over Salerni, risk 2 units: +.5
Zheng (+470) over Safina, risk 1 unit: -1
Schnyder (+116) over Kanepi, risk 2 units: +2.32
Chakvetadza (+520) over V.Williams, risk .5 units: -.5


Cirstea (over Ani) and Mathieu (over Gremelmayr) I considered, but the price was too prohibitive.

Cirstea and Mathieu did in fact win.

Brutal losses on Zheng and Chakvetadza. They had the upsets in their grasp.

Wednesday, May 6
5-6, +6.72
3-1, +23.82
8-7, +30.54

overall record after 5/6: 33-34, +51.1

[yisman]

May 7 ATP and WTA

not much in terms of underdogs.

ATP

Bolelli (-137) over Starace, risk 2 units
Benneteau (-213) over Brands, risk 4 units
Berdych (-123) over Beck, risk 4 units
Serra (+380) over Monaco, risk 7 units
Clement (-105) over Cipolla, risk 5 units
Simon (-227) over Fognini, risk 7 units
Karlovic (-227) over Dabul, risk 10 units
Blake (-154) over Gicquel, risk 4.5 units

WTA

Groenefeld (+340) over Lisicki, risk 3 units
Jankovic (+102) over Kuznetsova, risk 4 units
Kanepi (+380) over Azarenka, risk 7 units
Cirstea (-117.65) over Wickmayer, risk 5 units
Radwanska (+215) over V.Williams, risk 1 unit

also like Montanes over Greul, but the Betfair odds were too steep.

odds and unit amounts updated

[yisman]

mixed bag so far. Brilliant call of the Serra upset, but Lisicki retired to steal another huge upset from me.

Jankovic lost in straight sets, and I had a couple of brutal losses.


Clement lost 6-1, 4-6, 2-6.

Cirstea lost 4-6, 6-1, 4-6.

[yisman]

not much in terms of underdogs.

ATP

Bolelli (-137) over Starace, risk 2 units: -2
Benneteau (-213) over Brands, risk 4 units: -4
Berdych (-123) over Beck, risk 4 units: +3.25
Serra (+380) over Monaco, risk 7 units: 26.6
Clement (-105) over Cipolla, risk 5 units: -5
Simon (-227) over Fognini, risk 7 units: +3.08
Karlovic (-227) over Dabul, risk 10 units: +4.4
Blake (-154) over Gicquel, risk 4.5 units: +2.92

WTA

Groenefeld (+340) over Lisicki, risk 3 units: retired, because Lisicki was getting her butt kicked
Jankovic (+102) over Kuznetsova, risk 4 units: -4
Kanepi (+380) over Azarenka, risk 7 units: -7
Cirstea (-117.65) over Wickmayer, risk 5 units: -5
Radwanska (+215) over V.Williams, risk 1 unit: -1

also like Montanes over Greul, but the Betfair odds were too steep.

odds and unit amounts updated

Montanes did win. I'm now 3-0 on ones I stay away from because the odds were a little too steep.

[yisman]

Thursday, May 7

ATP: 5-3, +28.95
WTA: 0-4, -17
combined: 5-7, +11.95

overall: 38-41, +63.05

[yisman]

going to try to get it up early tonight. By 1 AM, hopefully. Then I'm taking the weekend off.

[yisman]

ATP

Mathieu -116 over Youzhny, risk 2.32 units
Karlovic -161 over Cipolla, risk 8 units
Fish +390 over Davydenko, risk 2 units
Berdych +120 over Hewitt, risk 3 units
Seppi -238 over Daniel, risk 2.38 units
Cilic -172 over Chardy, risk 2.5 units
Blake -125 over Serra, risk 4 units
Troicki +840 over Djokovic, risk 1 unit

WTA

Peer -125 over Wickmayer, risk 3 units
Azarenka +200 over Kuznetsova, risk 4 units
Safina +150 over V.Williams, risk 2 units


overall: 38-41, +63.05

[yisman]

ATP

Mathieu -116 over Youzhny, risk 2.32 units: -2.32
Karlovic -161 over Cipolla, risk 8 units: +4.97
Fish +390 over Davydenko, risk 2 units: -2
Berdych +120 over Hewitt, risk 3 units: +3.6
Seppi -238 over Daniel, risk 2.38 units: +1
Cilic -172 over Chardy, risk 2.5 units: -2.5
Blake -125 over Serra, risk 4 units: +3.2
Troicki +840 over Djokovic, risk 1 unit: -1

WTA

Peer -125 over Wickmayer, risk 3 units: retired
Azarenka +200 over Kuznetsova, risk 4 units: -4
Safina +150 over V.Williams, risk 2 units: +3


overall: 38-41, +63.05

Friday, May 8

WTA: 1-1, -1
ATP: 4-4, +4.95
combined: 5-5, +3.95

overall after 9 days: 43-46, +67

[yisman]

May 10 ATP

Blake (+245) over Davydenko, risk 1 unit (betfair)
Kiefer (+385) over Robredo, risk 1 unit
Berdych (-138) over Youzhny, risk 1.38 units
Kunitsyn (+270) over Ferrero, risk 7 units

odds from Pinnacle

[yisman]

ok posted. sorry, was having Internet trouble.

[yisman]

Dunno what to say.

Great value on Kunitsyn. I'd say it was one of my top 5 best bets since I started posting tennis picks here. Another close loss, and this seems to happen an awful lot when betting underdogs. All I can say is to keep betting them and you'll hit enough to make it worthwhile.

[Spanks]

Dude...is there any kind of logic to your picks or do you just like betting heavy underdogs...you play way too many matches to turn a profit...I'll play a live dog too but Igor against a natural claycouter for 7 units is ridiculous...

[yisman]

Dude...is there any kind of logic to your picks or do you just like betting heavy underdogs...you play way too many matches to turn a profit...I'll play a live dog too but Igor against a natural claycouter for 7 units is ridiculous...

Not at all, he almost pulled the upset. It was great value.

I don't pick every underdog, and I've been turning a pretty nifty profit.

If I saw anything to indicate my system wasn't working, I'd tweak it. It's working well. The only problem I'm having is unit management.

Sunday, May 10
2-2, -4.55 units

overall after 10 days: 45-48, +62.45

I will be posting Monday's picks within the hour.

[yisman]

May 11 ATP/WTA picks

ATP

Lopez (+170) over Monaco, risk 4 units
Vassallo Arguello (+164) over Hernandez, risk 2.5 units
Fish (+134) over Tipsarevic, risk 3 units -
Schuettler (+310) over Serra, risk 5 units

WTA

Peng (+168) over Pavlyuchenkova, risk 1 unit
Sugiyama (+360) over Mauresmo, risk 1.5 units -
Rybarikova (-156) over Lepchenko, risk 3 units
Peer (+420) over Wozniacki, risk .5 units
Vinci (+156) over Martinez Sanchez, risk 1 unit

odds from Betfair

[EaglesPhan36]

Just a note for you on Vassalo-Arguello, I read that he has a back problem that has forced him to retire in a couple matches in successive tournaments. Don't know if you're already committed to the wager, but thought I'd pass that along for whatever it's worth.

[yisman]

thanks for the tip. I was not aware of that.

I'll still give it a shot, but at slightly less.

[yisman]

add Lopez (+174) over Monaco for one more unit

WTA

Dominguez Lino (+1400) over Dementieva, risk .5 units

[yisman]

ATP

Lopez (+170) over Monaco, risk 4 units
Vassallo Arguello (+164) over Hernandez, risk 2.5 units
Fish (+134) over Tipsarevic, risk 3 units: +4.02
Schuettler (+310) over Serra, risk 5 units

WTA

Peng (+168) over Pavlyuchenkova, risk 1 unit: +1.68
Sugiyama (+360) over Mauresmo, risk 1.5 units
Rybarikova (-156) over Lepchenko, risk 3 units
Peer (+420) over Wozniacki, risk .5 units: retired
Vinci (+156) over Martinez Sanchez, risk 1 unit: +1.56

odds from Betfair

add Lopez (+174) over Monaco for one more unit

WTA

Dominguez Lino (+1400) over Dementieva, risk .5 units

Monday, May 11

3-6, -10.24 units


overall after 11 days: 48-54, +52.21