Well, what do you know, another winning day. 3-1; +5.1u on the thread. Still not happy about backing Gavrilova, but should not really be complaining. Interesting SFs tomorrow. I'll have to think some more about this, but I think I know in which direction those darts will be flying tomorrow.
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Fricking BM takes forever to release ATS and totals. This is starting to piss me off.Comment -
Finally, got the lines. Let's throw a couple of darts, just for the hell of it. Both for 0.5u each.
Cibulkova -3.5. This is the third time I am trying to go against Chirico. Now, Cibu has been pretty resilient but she has already spent a lot, and I mean a lot, of hours on the court in Madrid. On the other hand, Chic-chiric should be fresh as a daisy. But I just gotta go with experience here. Would not be surprised to see Cibu lose a set though, so this is not exactly a sure thing. Cibu might even lose straight up, if she runs out of gas and the teenager keeps hitting those winners left and right.
Stosur o21. I am hoping this will be a tight match. Both players seem to be in a pretty good shape and both players are not exactly mentally strong. I am hoping Stosur will make a match out of it and Halep does not go completely bananas or medieval on Stosur's ass.
ATP long-shot: Raonic +4.5 & Berdych +3.5 0.3u to win 0.8u. Just a gut feeling, so I am probably completely wrong here.
GL dudes. Not exactly confident in the above darts, so I'd say 0-3 tomorrow might be a pretty likely outcome. Any input would be appreciated, as usual.Last edited by frugalgambler; 05-05-16, 11:26 PM.Comment -
I'm begging you as much as possible, please don't go against this Chirico girl. If you can't back her, then just pass.Comment -
Hmm, OK... Out of curiosity just watched the QF highlights. That reminds me, they really should get hawk-eye on clay courts too; that would avoid all the arguing about the marks. Anyway, this is Chirico's first SF against an experienced top-20 player. So why exactly is she so awesome that I should not go against her ?
Yeah she has been hitting a lot of winners, but this is similar to shooting ~20% above you usual percentage in one game. Does not mean it will happen the next game. But it might, so you never know, you might be right.Comment -
I managed to catch some of the Stosur match this morning, it amazes me that Tig girl was able to make it as far as she did based off some of the comments around the forums with her overpowering style etc. Didn't see it at all. Was Keys really that bad? And everyone else she played?
I thought Stosur played ok but she didnt set the world on fire, Tig had some glaring weaknesses that Stosur exposed from time to time that she (Tig) absolutely could not hit and were UE.
But Stosur didn't make as many UE as usual so that was a telling sign too. BOL with that.
The 0-40 serving out the match was also a worrying sign, but since you have overs that shouldnt matter :PComment -
I did not watch that much of Tig, just a bit of her match against Keys. As I mentioned above, Keys is mentally fragile and she is also not a very smart player; I guess she just could not figure out that she needed to load up on Tig's backhand, they way Stosur did. But I gotta say after Tig got the lead vs Keys, she played much better. Against Stosur, Tig was always playing from behind and looked pretty shaky.
That was also her first "big-stage" match ever, so a major case of nerves was expected. I am just glad I managed to get on that at the right moment. But I'd say if Tig works hard on her backhand, she has a top-30 potential.Comment -
I am hoping she will not have to "set the world on fire" against Halep, b/c Halep is not exactly killing it right now either. In fact, if you look at WTA, no player has any sort of real momentum going into RG. Might be fascinating. Would not be surprised to see players like Tig or Chirico in QFs there as well. Remember when Majoli won it ? Somebody like Begu might win it this year.
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Yeah it's very strange time to be at, there isn't even a standout dominant clay court player at the moment the way there is in the men's.
It seems Serena only won it in previous years because no one else was good enough but it seems like the records have gotten to her mentally and she has crumbled under the pressure. The US Open must have scarred her as she still isn't handling it well.Comment -
Good thread
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So much for Chirico. The angle of "going against a player playing her first big-stage match" is probably my favorite. I wanted to go a full unit on Cibu, but I got scared by the time she has already spent on court in Madrid.
But I should not have ventured into the muddy waters of ATP.Last edited by frugalgambler; 05-06-16, 09:23 AM.Comment -
The obvious problem with Serena is that she is yet to play a match on clay this year, and she is yet to win a tourney this year. I am hoping she will be playing in Rome.
Based on the current form, my player of choice would have been Aza, but she just got injured, and a back injury is the worst, right up there with knee injuries. Then there is Kerber, but she seems to be flaky right now. Halep might be dangerous, especially if she wins Madrid and does well in Rome. That's it, more or less.Comment -
Well, that was a cold slap in the groin from Stosur, losing 11 games in a row is a bit much even for that mental Mary. More often than not semis and finals at big WTA events turn into lopsided affairs. Halep looked good from what I saw in the 2nd set but I think she only looked good b/c Stosur was completely derailed. So back to normal, 1-2 today; +4.7u on the thread. I was way too optimistic with Stosur there; the h2h also affected my judgement, but I forgot that Halep's h2h from before ~2014 should be largely ignored.
Looking at the final, I gotta say my final dart at Madrid will be
Halep -3.5 for 0.5u. Yeah, Cibulkova seems to have rediscovered her winning ways and she was pretty resilient in Madrid pulling off four 3-set wins in a row, before the easy romp over Chirico. But that also means she should be pretty tired. I am not completely sold on Halep being back to her stellar form, but taking away that bizarre 2nd set bagel from Begu, she has won 10 straight sets at 6-3 or better. And the stat I like the best is that Halep is 11-4 in the finals against players not named Serena or Maria. Cibulkova's stat is a rather pedestrian 5-7. Moreover, Cibulkova is not that great on clay, and she has never won a tournament on clay. On the other hand, Halep loves clay, as she must b/c she is Romanian. But this is WTA after all, and Halep might still be mentally vulnerable. So you never know.
GL dudes. Any input would be appreciated, as usual.Last edited by frugalgambler; 05-06-16, 06:21 PM.Comment -
Btw, the favs went 6-0 ATS in WTA/ATP today. Jeff was right that today would be a good day to be square.Comment -
Yay, Halep! 1-0 today; +5.2u on the thread.
This was lotsa fun, but the forum is still as quiet as a church mouse.
Just doing some book-keeping for fun (parlays broken up into individual plays):
ATS 9-2
O/U 4-3
1st set 4-0 (thank you, Sorana and Cibu !)
ATP 1-1
Not sure if I will do the same for Rome next week. And in any case, even if I do find time to post, I would be lucky to break-even there. I am not nearly that good. Talk to you later, dudes.Comment
