WTA clay-courting in Madrid

**aortega521** · 05-01-16, 02:33 AM

For some reason I feel same way. I like sbr but tennis forum at covers is better

**Conqueror** · 05-01-16, 03:54 AM

Nice thread. Not much going on in the tennis subforum because tennis has been brutal the last few weeks. Non-slam events are hard to bet on, IMHO.

Can't comment on all your picks, my take on some:
A-Rad, yes.
Kohly: My capping of the game says Kohly is the play, but my reading of the line says Thiem will win.

Good plays, IMHO:
Bouchard
Tsurenko
Stosur in straights
Schmiedlova +7.5
Babos +1.5 sets

**frugalgambler** · 05-01-16, 05:41 AM

Originally posted by aortega521

For some reason I feel same way. I like sbr but tennis forum at covers is better

I cannot stand the tennis forum @covers, but they got EP36 now or at least he was posting there after SBR kicked him out. Dumb move SBR. EP36 was a good poster and a decent guy. And he generated lots of traffic.

**frugalgambler** · 05-01-16, 05:43 AM

Good luck Conq. I am not touching those matches you quoted, mainly b/c I do not know much about those girls on clay. Madrid is actually a bit different from your usual clay tourney b/c of the altitude. Last year, Kvitova won it and she is no clay-court specialist. Too bad MGT is not posting about this one. Always enjoyed his informative previews and picks.

**MGTennisTipster** · 05-01-16, 09:51 AM

Hello frugalgambler hope you're doing well.

We haven't published the articles lately because of some issues but you can always head to http://www.sportsbookreview.com/tennis/ and check if there is any article about the tournaments that are taking place. We hope that those issues will be solved quickly and after that the articles will be shared again on SBR forum.

Thanks for the positive feedback and interest on them, best of luck on your bets.

**frugalgambler** · 05-01-16, 08:02 PM

Well, that was an unpleasant surprise from Cibu. -1.1u on the day. But at least the mystery of MGT's absence is solved. Some other interesting upsets today. Wanted to take Tig and Sorana ATS only, but did not. Hindsight 20/20.

So far I am liking only Svitolina o20.5 @-110 for 1u. Gavrilova did well in Madrid last year, but Svitolina is no slouch either. Should be a fun match.

Interesting to see the defending champ Kvitova only -200 fav over Vesnina. What's up with that. GL folks.

**frugalgambler** · 05-01-16, 08:18 PM

Ah, I see that Kvitova opened at -150; MGT has her ML as one of his free picks. Is Vesnina really playing so great this year to warrant so much respect ?

**frugalgambler** · 05-02-16, 11:37 AM

Back to evens. Kinda tempting to back Begu: Romanian chicks are what Spanish dudes to clay. But I am not so sure. OK, why not, Begu +5 for 0.5u @-105.

**frugalgambler** · 05-02-16, 04:08 PM

What do you know, Begu won SU. Back in black, +0.4u on the thread. Some interesting lines tomorrow, but not sure what to take, yet.

**frugalgambler** · 05-02-16, 11:36 PM

Well, let's throw some more darts. All for 0.5u.

Sorana 1st set @+120. Her pattern lately has been to win the first set and then she usually loses the next two sets. But Sorana is trying to make a comeback to top-50, and I have no idea who Kovinic is.

Lucic +4. Siegemund has been on fire lately, but Lucic is one tough mama.

Garcia +3. I think the line is a bit of an overreaction after Cibu's upset of A-Rad. Garcia has had some success at Madrid before.

CSN -4 @-130. CSN on clay, at home, vs Sabine who is not so good on clay. What can go wrong ? Plenty, this is WTA after all.

GL dudes. Any feedback would appreciated, as usual.

**fitguy67** · 05-03-16, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

CSN -4 @-130. CSN on clay, at home, vs Sabine who is not so good on clay.
What can go wrong ? Plenty, this is WTA after all.

well said...

without the weapons-grade serve we're left with a situation where--to quote the "late" EP36 (thanks sbr, for turfing out that trouble-maker

)
"holding service is frowned upon"...

making it all the harder to justify any amount of chalk on a favorite...and more harrowing to sweat out such a bet when we do

**frugalgambler** · 05-03-16, 12:08 PM

Fitguy, while I do agree with that WTA can be pretty unpredictable, this also makes it pretty entertaining and even charming. The key is not to get too discouraged and enjoy watching girls in short skirts. From the betting point of view, WTA is no different than NBA: a lot of the time it's a game of "runs." On the other hand, ATP, especially at non-Slams, is such a bore.

**fitguy67** · 05-03-16, 12:53 PM

exactly...like the table game, baccarat, where the house "holds serve" only slightly more than not...

but visually a whole lot cuter thing to gamble on...throw in the audio-dimension of "screamers" and/or "moaners"...

and just as your faves are harder to sweat, the dogs always seem to hold more hope than similarly-priced tickets in other sports...seems always just a rally (a break AND hold) or two away from coming thru and cashing for you,
so if an in-play turnaround's what you need, the higher-frequency of breaks actually makes for a better sweat than fukkin' basketball or football (where you fear the frustrating zebra-intangibles far more than the swings in player-performance)

higher volatility and cuter to watch than the men's game, with the same low-occurrence of officiating-gaffes that tennis in general enjoys over team-sports

your formula of betting WTA to bridge the gaps between the slams is a good one
________

good hit on Garcia, actually winning the games-tally battle while losing the match to the cute little energizer bunny...

good 2-0 start to the day

**frugalgambler** · 05-03-16, 04:40 PM

I think you are too fixated on the whole "holding serve" issue. I do not like watching serve-bots, Raonic-style. My least favorite player of all time is probably Sampras, he basically ruined ATP for a decade with his serve. Glad he never won RG. It is actually great that none of the big four are dominant on their serve and are winning using an all-around game. Nothing sweeter than to see a serve-bot like Raonic or Isner shredded by a brilliant returner like Feds or Novak. Although, to be fair Raonic is a bit more than a serve-bot these days.

Anyway, a pretty good day today: 3-0-1; +2u on the thread. Disappointed to see only a push from Lucic. Funny, I usually prefer to take an over in her matches against decent but not brilliant opps. But I was dumb enough to put too much weight in her easy 1st round win. Some interesting matches tomorrow. I'll have to think a bit more though. And I usually bomb after a good day.

**frugalgambler** · 05-03-16, 04:46 PM

Also, I do not bet ATP that much even at Slams. I can tolerate watching it at Slams though.

**frugalgambler** · 05-03-16, 07:46 PM

Hmm, OK, let's keep them darts flying. All for 0.5u, unless stated otherwise.

Aza -6 @-130. No idea who Chirico is, not a bad looking chick according to google. But it should not matter: Aza has been pretty efficient this season in saving energy and thoroughly dominating lesser players.

Gavrilova +5 @-115. OK, Kvitova is a defending champ and all, and Gavrilova has been in a slump since Aus Open, but I still think this is too generous for Kvitova.

Tig +5. Pretty much the same as above. Yeah, I have no idea who Tig is but she is a Romanian up-and-comer and Keys will be Keys and she is playing on clay (although on a Madrid clay). That is not to say that Keys will not bagel Tig tomorrow.

Pav to win 1st set @+160 for 0.3u. Yeah, Pav is not that good on clay, but I think she still might feast on Cibu's serve tomorrow. And from what I am seeing the conditions in Madrid are not that bad for hard-court specialists (Cibu btw is also one of those).

Kinda thinking about Sorana, ATS or over or 1st set. Don't have the odds yet anyways. GL dudes. Any input welcome.

**frugalgambler** · 05-04-16, 12:28 AM

OK, Sorana's line is out. Lets throw some darts at Sorana +4.5/o20.5/1set @+180 for 0.2u each. I know Siegemund has been the honey of the year, but this match is a big deal for Sorana. She needs to crack ~top-80 to stop playing qualies and challengers.

I feel adventurous and buoyed by the great Warriors comeback. Blazers actually had me sweating my -600 bet on Warriors to win the series. I overextended myself there a little. GL dudes.

**frugalgambler** · 05-04-16, 02:30 AM

Just a quick update in case anybody cares, I feel like these darts might be crooked today. Would not be surprised to go 0-5.

**fitguy67** · 05-04-16, 02:02 PM

fortunately it was your crookedness-meter that was off...

would be nice if every day's batch of darts could fly so straight...

__________

Frug, any idea what happened to Reedy?...was firing on all cylinders, WTA-wise, then just stopped posting
(we all miss that great Diyas avatar...)

**frugalgambler** · 05-04-16, 02:45 PM

No idea, bud. This forum is unfortunately, almost dead. Used to be a lot more lively. I miss punters like hardcoar and MDF. Let's hope reedy comes back for RG.

PS It also does not help that there are a couple of idiots who start daily useless threads that clog up the forum.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 05-04-16, 02:47 PM

Tig +325 for me.

Lets GO!

**frugalgambler** · 05-04-16, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Tig +325 for me.

Lets GO!

Yeah, I'd be careful with that. Keys has the game to beat anybody, anywhere. Her main problem is that she is a mental Mary, but against lesser opps she usually prevails. For me, the question is if this Tig chick is resilient enough to cover. But GL.

**frugalgambler** · 05-04-16, 05:06 PM

Wow, finally watched a bit of WTA this week. Tig looks like Halep on stilts and plays like that: as consistent but with more power. That chick might have a bright future, depending on her mental fortitude. Of course, it helped that Keys played like crap on big points, but this is what she does.

Anyhoo, 4-0 today. About +4.1u on the thread. I am surprised, did not expect to do so well two days in a row. The good news is that there only 7 matches left, so I am more or less guaranteed a profit on the thread. The bad news is that the lines are gonna be sharper and sharper, and I usually do not do so well in later stages. Not to mention that I almost never string together three winning days.

Looking at the matchups tomorrow, I am not liking much, yet, but there are a couple of interesting lines. I'll have to think more on that.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 05-04-16, 05:19 PM

**fitguy67** · 05-04-16, 07:18 PM

Dig hits big on tig

and for once i discover and start to follow a thread just in time for the solid UP- move...FG calling & betting 7 matches perfectly these last 2 days...including 3 variations on Cirstea

gotta enjoy a nice blast of positive variance like that when it comes

**frugalgambler** · 05-04-16, 08:16 PM

Well, I made up my mind. Let's keep them darts flying. Both for 0.5u each.

Gavrilova -3@-120. Like I said no idea who Chirico is, but she sure is getting a lot of respect, or conversely, Gavrilova is being disrespected. The dogs have been covering left and right, but I feel like some of the favs should be coming through tomorrow. So I'll take a more experienced player.

Sorana o21. Cibu is on a streak of three-setters and that might continue tomorrow, at least I hope so. Might also drop a little on Sorana 1st set but I do not have that line yet.

GL dudes. Any input would be appreciated, as usual.

Kinda tempting to take Stosur over Tig, who overachieved big time this week, but I do not like backing Stosur: she can be flaky. On paper, Halep should have an easy time with Begu, but matchups between country-women can be tricky, and Begu is one determined chick.

**frugalgambler** · 05-04-16, 09:03 PM

BM released all the lines, so I am gonna add a couple of long-shots.

Sorana 1set @+155 for 0.2u; and Steroid-Stosur -4 & Begu o19.5 0.3u to win 0.75u.

I think tomorrow is the day for my regression to the mean, so 0-4 is probably what I am expecting to see in the morning. GL dudes.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 05-04-16, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Dig hits big on tig

and for once i discover and start to follow a thread just in time for the solid UP- move...FG calling & betting 7 matches perfectly these last 2 days...including 3 variations on Cirstea

gotta enjoy a nice blast of positive variance like that when it comes

Fitguy, it's been a while... How you been, bud?

**Conqueror** · 05-04-16, 11:40 PM

Cibu is always a risky bet as a huge favorite. Just saying.

**frugalgambler** · 05-05-16, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Cibu is always a risky bet as a huge favorite. Just saying.

I would not call -220 a huge fav. The line seems to be right where it should be.

From my point of view, the most surprising line would be -180 on Gavrilova. I would expected it to be closer to -250. Perhaps, I missing something there, like an injury. But I did not find anything about that. Anyhoo, all four QFs look dodgy.

**Conqueror** · 05-05-16, 12:59 AM

FG,

Gavrilova is an easy play. The books are overreacting to Chirico's conquest of our beautiful Ana Ivanovic.

**frugalgambler** · 05-05-16, 01:20 AM

Ain't nothing easy in WTA !

**Conqueror** · 05-05-16, 06:45 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

FG,

Gavrilova is an easy play. The books are overreacting to Chirico's conquest of our beautiful Ana Ivanovic.

Lines never lie. I eat my words. Chirico is for real.

**frugalgambler** · 05-05-16, 12:47 PM

Yeah, I dunno how for real Chirico is, she did get double-bageled by Kvitova and bageled by Kasatkina just a couple of weeks ago. I missed the "letdown after a big upset" angle here. The books were begging for money on Gavrilova, and when something looks too good to be true, it usually is. There was no crowd to carry her, as opposed to when she plays down under.

But the good news Cibu did follow her usual script. I am having second thoughts on backing Stosur though. Let's hope the crafty and experienced Stosur shows up today, without her mental Mary side.