The "Outright Tournament Winner" THREAD

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  • JC1186
    SBR MVP
    • 02-21-14
    • 1070

    #1
    The "Outright Tournament Winner" THREAD
    There should be a thread like this.

    Alright so starting with the Topshelf Open.

    Can't see Halep losing @ 2.30's this week, but I'm going with a couple of outsiders here.

    Two bets.

    Tursunov out.

    Top half:

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    Bottom half:

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    That's Bautista-Agut @ 11's.

    Seems crazy I know. But hear me out.

    The two half is filled with utter mugs.

    Sousa
    DeBakker
    Sela/Becker/Pospisil/Struff

    To make the final. This one is placed with laying off in mind.

    About as easy a draw as it gets. A big call. Sure. But I do like the play.

    The bottom half is where the better players are. Bautista-Agut gets the nod from me.

    Ebden
    Mahut (who albeit the defending champion - was horrendous against Coppejans yesterday)/Johnson
    Verdasco/Melzer

    To make the final. In which case he'd be the pretty huge favourite to take the title.

    The Spaniard was improved immensely this year. Can't see why his game wouldn't be just as good on grass as HC. Where he has beaten Berdych and Del Potro this year.

    With the exception of the Verdasco/Melzer match I think he has it very easy.
  • kenz
    SBR MVP
    • 12-09-12
    • 4879

    #2
    Halep probably tanks thats why I took Govo +6 @1.99 yesterday, wish I took 6.5 @1.75ish as my bet voided. First set was good though 7-5.

    She is not the 250s girl like last year, now she is number 3 and has to perform well in Wimbledon.

    I also tried to understand her playing pattern for 2014 yesterday. She was deep in Aus Open then tanked in Paris next week. Won Doha tanked in Dubai. Good in Indian Wells tanked in Stuttgart. Good in Madrid tanked in Rome. Very good in Roland Garros now I expect her to tank here to be fresh in Wimbledon.
    Comment
    • kenz
      SBR MVP
      • 12-09-12
      • 4879

      #3
      JC you are from Australia, I read on papers one Aussie won 200,000 Australian Dollars for Li Na * Wawrinka outright parlay betting 400(if not asparagas). Can you ask him what he thinks for Wimbledon?
      Comment
      • kenz
        SBR MVP
        • 12-09-12
        • 4879

        #4
        No love for Tomic?
        Comment
        • SirtySree
          SBR MVP
          • 12-19-13
          • 2370

          #5
          Tsonga for Wimbledon. Always done good on grass and just Murray who always gives him trouble but Murray out of form this year although that being said, Tsonga is out of form too. Only difference is could be value to win like his quarter or something depending on the draw.
          Comment
          • JC1186
            SBR MVP
            • 02-21-14
            • 1070

            #6
            Originally posted by kenz
            No love for Tomic?
            A lot of love for Tomic actually. Thought your bet was a great one from the start.

            He's value for the tournament along with Benneteau @ 23's to break his tournament duck in the bottom half.
            Comment
            • JC1186
              SBR MVP
              • 02-21-14
              • 1070

              #7
              Have to say $100 on Pavic was one stupid ass bet. It was either him or Sousa @ 16's for the top half. Went with Pavic because he was 2.50 for the match (at the time) and 51's for the tournament.

              Stupid rookie mistake. I knew those odds of 1.65/2.50 were incorrect, and poorly, allowed that to influence me.
              Comment
              • NguyenImproved
                SBR High Roller
                • 06-13-14
                • 226

                #8
                Originally posted by JC1186
                Have to say $100 on Pavic was one stupid ass bet. It was either him or Sousa @ 16's for the top half. Went with Pavic because he was 2.50 for the match (at the time) and 51's for the tournament.

                Stupid rookie mistake. I knew those odds of 1.65/2.50 were incorrect, and poorly, allowed that to influence me.

                Wow...have you ever picked a winner mate? Sousa was a shoe in.

                I always wondered who the idiots were that placed these kinda bets. But thanks for sating my curiosity.
                Comment
                • brodie
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-25-13
                  • 2212

                  #9
                  Originally posted by NguyenImproved
                  Wow...have you ever picked a winner mate? Sousa was a shoe in.

                  I always wondered who the idiots were that placed these kinda bets. But thanks for sating my curiosity.
                  this guy already starting to piss me off and he's been on here for 5 days
                  Comment
                  • baconbets
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 05-11-13
                    • 329

                    #10
                    i have a few sheckles on RBA at 16:1. if he can clear his side of the bracket, anyone he faces from the top half should be +money for easy hedging. this tournament has some of the most lopsided futures, currently. literally everyone in the bottom half is more favored to win than everyone in the top. never seen that before.
                    Comment
                    • JC1186
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-21-14
                      • 1070

                      #11
                      Originally posted by baconbets
                      i have a few sheckles on RBA at 16:1. if he can clear his side of the bracket, anyone he faces from the top half should be +money for easy hedging. this tournament has some of the most lopsided futures, currently. literally everyone in the bottom half is more favored to win than everyone in the top. never seen that before.
                      Indeed. Makes sense though given the players in the top half.

                      You never know with Sousa though. He made the KL final late last year against all odds. That was on IHC. His least favoured surface. He toughened the match out, saved a MP against the notorious Finals choker (Benneteau - something like 0-9 in Finals the poor bugger), and won the tournament.
                      Comment
                      • frugalgambler
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-30-13
                        • 3418

                        #12
                        RBA vs Mahut ? Hmm. Mahut is usually a wizard on grass and is the defending champ, why are the odds almost even ? Mahut 2-0 @+190 looks pretty enticing. Hmm.
                        Comment
                        • JC1186
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-21-14
                          • 1070

                          #13
                          Originally posted by frugalgambler
                          RBA vs Mahut ? Hmm. Mahut is usually a wizard on grass and is the defending champ, why are the odds almost even ? Mahut 2-0 @+190 looks pretty enticing. Hmm.
                          If RBA wasn't show piss poor against Ebden he'd probably be favourite.

                          Mahut's not the same player. If you saw the Coppejans (who was making his main draw debut) match you'd know why.

                          Still, even though I'm on RBA outright I'll admit the odds on Mahut are tempting. But just no way I could back Mahut given what I saw the other day.
                          Comment
                          • frugalgambler
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-30-13
                            • 3418

                            #14
                            Did not Mahut take care of another, more capable no-name dude the next day pretty efficiently ? That was his second match on grass. This would be his third. Let's see how it goes. I am not saying he will definitely win 2-0 or even win at all, but RBA is not the guy to back on grass.

                            As for making the main draw debut: that is usually a big occasion for the newcomer, while Mahut might have thought that he had nothing to worry about. I admit I am throwing darts here since I have not actually watched pretty much any tennis after RG. But still, this looks like an interesting line.
                            Comment
                            • JC1186
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-21-14
                              • 1070

                              #15
                              Would you really put Johnson ahead of RBA? On all surfaces - I wouldn't.

                              He may not be the guy to back on grass. Yet. But I do think the verdict is out on him. I don't see why he can't have similar success on this surface as he does on Indoor Hard.

                              I do specifically remember his match against Ferrer at Wimbledon last year and Bautista did impress me. He was up a break in the 4th set and almost took it to 5.

                              He does however seem to be in a bit of a form slump relative to early this year.
                              Comment
                              • Bumdeal
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-17-13
                                • 3954

                                #16
                                Tailed you on Sousa , JC. good call.

                                I have camila giorgi to win in eastborne at +1100, if she gets by wozniacki it looks like her chances just got a whole lot better.
                                Comment
                                • Bumdeal
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-17-13
                                  • 3954

                                  #17
                                  Boooo Camila. You break my heart.
                                  Comment
                                  • Cappinpicks
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 03-11-10
                                    • 14986

                                    #18
                                    take mashithut to get it bak
                                    Comment
                                    • Bumdeal
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-17-13
                                      • 3954

                                      #19
                                      I'm scared of Mahut. My morning plays were Sousa and Pospisil.

                                      Might take Chardy light.
                                      Comment
                                      • NguyenImproved
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 06-13-14
                                        • 226

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Bumdeal
                                        I'm scared of Mahut. My morning plays were Sousa and Pospisil.

                                        Might take Chardy light.

                                        Haven't seen him play but isn't Lopez in form at the moment
                                        Comment
                                        • JC1186
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-21-14
                                          • 1070

                                          #21
                                          Surprised to see RBA as fav against Melzer. Big match for me. If he comes through he'll be the strong fav in the final against either Becker or Sousa. In which case I'd definitely lay off for a 1.5K+ profit.
                                          Comment
                                          • JC1186
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-21-14
                                            • 1070

                                            #22
                                            On second thought Sousa/Becker would be an odds of 3.0+ dog at least. They're playing like shit. So I'd be able to lock 2K profit in if RBA beats Melzer.

                                            Win or lose hopefully he turns up.
                                            Comment
                                            • JC1186
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-21-14
                                              • 1070

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by JC1186

                                              Bottom half:

                                              [ATTACH]69841[/ATTACH]

                                              That's Bautista-Agut @ 11's.

                                              The bottom half is where the better players are. Bautista-Agut gets the nod from me.

                                              Ebden
                                              Mahut (who albeit the defending champion - was horrendous against Coppejans yesterday)/Johnson
                                              Verdasco/Melzer

                                              To make the final. In which case he'd be the pretty huge favourite to take the title.

                                              The Spaniard was improved immensely this year. Can't see why his game wouldn't be just as good on grass as HC. Where he has beaten Berdych and Del Potro this year.

                                              With the exception of the Verdasco/Melzer match I think he has it very easy.
                                              And through he goes into the final. I patiently await the odds. Hopefully from odds of about 11 to 1.40ish.
                                              Comment
                                              • Cappinpicks
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 03-11-10
                                                • 14986

                                                #24
                                                fart face melzhit was -650 in the 3rd set LOL not like any dogs win in atp
                                                Comment
                                                • JC1186
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-21-14
                                                  • 1070

                                                  #25
                                                  If Becker remains at 2.40ish I don't think I can lay off. I just couldn't justify it. He doesn't deserve to be that short.

                                                  I'm off to bed and hopefully the odds drift overnight.

                                                  I'd take Becker @ 2.70 or else I'm letting it ride.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • baconbets
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 05-11-13
                                                    • 329

                                                    #26
                                                    i have RBA and i'm hedging out on becker at +money. pretty rare to walk into a final with a long future on one side and the opponent is +money on the other side. usually you take future on a guy like RBA and he plays murray in the final, and murray is like -700 or something stupid, so you can barely hedge.

                                                    SEAL IN THE FRESHNESS
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JC1186
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-21-14
                                                      • 1070

                                                      #27
                                                      Indeed. It's pretty sweet.

                                                      Bautista-Agut shortening all the time. Stupid market really got it wrong last night lol.

                                                      Think I'll wait just before the start to lay off. Wouldn't be surprised if B-A shortens to 1.50 on Betfair - gifting us 3's on Becker.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JC1186
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-21-14
                                                        • 1070

                                                        #28
                                                        Have laid off. 2Kish profit. Can't trust Bautista-Agut in a final against a wily veteran, so it was a pretty logical decision.




                                                        Originally posted by NguyenImproved
                                                        Wow...have you ever picked a winner mate? Sousa was a shoe in.

                                                        I always wondered who the idiots were that placed these kinda bets. But thanks for sating my curiosity.
                                                        Oh and how could I forgot the biggest fcukwit I've come across on the Internet. Who trash talked me when my odds of 50/1 outright bet lost.

                                                        A bit too thick to realise my Bautista bet could soon put me in a solid winning position.

                                                        Suck it tosser.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pipita17
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 07-17-12
                                                          • 393

                                                          #29
                                                          now that is what i would call a nice tipping. great work jc
                                                          Comment
                                                          • NguyenImproved
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 06-13-14
                                                            • 226

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by JC1186
                                                            Have laid off. 2Kish profit. Can't trust Bautista-Agut in a final against a wily veteran, so it was a pretty logical decision.






                                                            Oh and how could I forgot the biggest fcukwit I've come across on the Internet. Who trash talked me when my odds of 50/1 outright bet lost.

                                                            A bit too thick to realise my Bautista bet could soon put me in a solid winning position.

                                                            Suck it tosser.


                                                            Credit where it's due. I will concede that was an astute bet.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Cessation
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 08-23-12
                                                              • 221

                                                              #31
                                                              It saved them some money in this case but do you think Pinny care if you take the future and the hedge with them?

                                                              Aussie based books would not like it. Pinny is different, I know, but I'm undecided on it.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JC1186
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-21-14
                                                                • 1070

                                                                #32
                                                                Given they're arbitrage friendly, I see no reason why they'd have a problem with it. Most people would lay off in said scenario (odds of 11 into 1.49) so it wouldn't be in their best interest to police it.

                                                                Comment
                                                                • JC1186
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-21-14
                                                                  • 1070

                                                                  #33
                                                                  There's lots of reason to like Safarova for the Quarter imo. It's a weak section.

                                                                  Azarenka, Muguruza and Radwanska are all hugely vulnerable. Safarova has the game, if "on it", to beat all of them in current form.

                                                                  I'll be looking to lay off in the Quarters. If it's against Radwanska whom Safarova has a great h2h against, I'll think twice.

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • beefcake
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-26-09
                                                                    • 14029

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Love the Safarova bet!!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JC1186
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-21-14
                                                                      • 1070

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by beefcake
                                                                      Love the Safarova bet!!
                                                                      Thanks.

                                                                      With Azarenka out, Safarova has a very favourable run to make the Quarters.

                                                                      Either Cibulkova/Uutynakkukduck (into a 3rd set now) next.
                                                                      Jovanovski/Smitkova in the 4th round.

                                                                      Looking quite lovely atm given the odds.
                                                                      Comment
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