The "Outright Tournament Winner" THREAD

**Simon Gruber** · 06-25-14, 02:28 PM

I was hoping Tomic beat Bird today to improve my Cilic future bet. If he can squeeze past Bird he gets the winner of Stack/Chardy where Djokovic most likely awaits.

**Nick_685** · 06-27-14, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

There's lots of reason to like Safarova for the Quarter imo. It's a weak section.

Azarenka, Muguruza and Radwanska are all hugely vulnerable. Safarova has the game, if "on it", to beat all of them in current form.

I'll be looking to lay off in the Quarters. If it's against Radwanska whom Safarova has a great h2h against, I'll think twice.

This bet starts to look pretty good. Let me know please if you decide to lay off

**JC1186** · 06-27-14, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by Nick_685

This bet starts to look pretty good. Let me know please if you decide to lay off

It's looking better than good.

She'll be a huge favourite in her 4th round match.

But more importantly, she looked excellent against Cibulkova. Super dangerous and next to no serious mental lapses.

There's a good chance I'll let it ride. But we'll see who she's up against in the Quarters and I'll let you know what I think the best play is.

**frugalgambler** · 06-27-14, 12:52 PM

Nice bet. The thing is, grass is really not Safarova's best surface and when she meets a grass guru like A-Rad or even Makarova (not very likely) that should show. I'd hedge in the QF if I were you.

**JC1186** · 06-27-14, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Nice bet. The thing is, grass is really not Safarova's best surface and when she meets a grass guru like A-Rad or even Makarova (not very likely) that should show. I'd hedge in the QF if I were you.

Thanks. It's WTA though and she's got nothing to lose. I agree with what you're saying but also watched her closely today and know what I saw. She was exceptional really. Whether Radwanska allows her to play that way I'm not sure. However the H2H reads 4-1 Safarova and that was taken into consideration before I placed the bet.

Depends on the odds in the quarters. May take a chance at hedging live should she get a good start.

If she faces Makarova I'd almost definitely hedge given I'd be able to lock in a decent amount more profit.

**frugalgambler** · 06-27-14, 01:27 PM

I got a bit on A-Rad futures, and you are making me worried, not really as much as you bet though. We'll see, they both have to win their next matches first. I am yet to see A-Rad play, but she seems to pretty efficient right now. The first big test will be against Makarova. The h2h is indeed worrisome and if I had to guess, A-Rad would be ~-200 in the QF.

**baconbets** · 06-27-14, 04:52 PM

safarova QF future was the best tip so far on this board for this tourney. hats off to JC. only one more match against a relative lightweight until guaranteed money.

**JC1186** · 06-30-14, 06:31 AM

Cheers bacon.

Safarova through to the Quarters.

6-0 6-2

91% first serves won
19 winners
4 unforced errors

She's playing bloody brilliantly!

**kenz** · 06-30-14, 06:35 AM

Great

**beefcake** · 06-30-14, 08:53 AM

Great call man..hedge city..also took makarova..if she can manage to beat Ad Ra then I will sit back..if not ad ra would be round -200 vs safa..MONEY!!

**JC1186** · 06-30-14, 10:43 AM

Cheers beefcake.

I'm cheering on Makarova here. Basically would mean an extra K or so I can lock in.

Have to say though, watching this match between her and Radwanska, from what I've seen of Safarova she's playing the better tennis by some margin.

Of course this is WTA and like Lisicki there's often a fine line with Safarova.

If Radwanska wins here I think there's a good chance I'll let it ride if the market over rates her. She just looks flat. Not the same Agnieszka by some margin. And on this surface she needs to be at her best to counter the big hitters.

Makarova looks quite ordinary too here but the odds would likely be evens against Lucie which makes the decision to lay off that much easier.

**beefcake** · 06-30-14, 11:08 AM

Well if she loses up 5-0 after a delay..then i might not bet again this tourney..Great call man.No hedge required for me now.

**baconbets** · 06-30-14, 04:23 PM

JC, you looking to get out with makarova? im in the same boat. arad would have been too short of odds. -130 is a little worse than i was expecting but a very tolerable hedge.

**frugalgambler** · 06-30-14, 10:05 PM

Yeah, A-Rad looked really flat today. But it seems that Makarova has been improving lately. She is serving pretty well and moves a bit better too. A-Rad seems to be stuck in the place she was 3-4 years ago.

You seem to really like Safarova, but again Makarova will be her first real test. It is easy to look great against scrubs not so against good players. So far, the best quality match I have watched was Kvitova-Venus but I missed a lot of Wimby.

**JC1186** · 07-01-14, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by baconbets

JC, you looking to get out with makarova? im in the same boat. arad would have been too short of odds. -130 is a little worse than i was expecting but a very tolerable hedge.

1.70 now is the absolute best one can get with Makarova.

Not happy with that. Unfortunately even though Radwanska never really turned up, the scoreline of 6-3 6-0 has definitely shortened Makarova's price and flattered her form.

I'm undecided right now. I'll be crunching some numbers and having a good think about it. As much as I'm usually all about locking in profit, I'm definitely leaning towards at least letting it ride early on in the match.

If Safarova goes up a break I'd hedge straight away. That much I know for sure. If she doesn't I'd let it ride and hope she "switches on" and turns it around for hedging later in the match.

Anyway I'll let you know my play. It's not that I'm having a cry because the odds are low. It's more that I genuinely believe they shouldn't be. I wouldn't favour Makarova here more than 50-50. Makarova has a slightly better B or C game, but Safarova the better A game imo.

**JC1186** · 07-01-14, 07:42 AM

Update. Have locked $2,865 profit either way.

I do like Safarova here. But I'm not willing to take the gamble.

*It's worth noting 90% of the time I lay off, I shouldn't have. My original bet nearly always wins. So que Safarova taking this.

**beefcake** · 07-01-14, 08:45 AM

My 100 buck profit on Safarove vs 2865 on yours...You da man!!

**JC1186** · 07-01-14, 09:17 AM

Thanks mate.

Looks like a shit move right now though! I could have saved 1.5K after just 3 games had I waited for in-play and the break like originally planned.

Oh well.

**Nick_685** · 07-01-14, 03:26 PM

Thanks JC1186. I already cashed some nice bucks

but I also used you're tip in a parlay

Any advice to when to lay off?

**JC1186** · 07-01-14, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by Nick_685

Thanks JC1186. I already cashed some nice bucks

but I also used you're tip in a parlay

Any advice to when to lay off?

Good to hear mate.

Can't see the screenshot unfortunately. It's too small. Do you have a link to it?

**Nick_685** · 07-01-14, 03:30 PM

sure http://postimg.org/image/80gvyqodj/

**JC1186** · 07-01-14, 03:37 PM

Hmm I wouldn't worry about Novak. Can see him losing a set to Cilic but not the match.

Which leaves you with The World Cup. Which I know very little about.

Nice bet though. It must be tempting to leave it be for now and enjoy the ride.

**JC1186** · 07-22-14, 11:28 AM

Schiavone (both bets) to win the Baku Title.

**mamamonkey** · 07-22-14, 11:46 AM

think it's time to take a break JC

**NYRin09** · 07-22-14, 04:15 PM

JC don't bite. We know this guy is a troll, and we know Matt bets air. Everyone remembers what you did during Wimbledon. Keep doin you, and please keep posting plays

**JC1186** · 02-26-15, 01:27 AM

Lucie again. I'm perhaps a little bias because she has been my favourite player for as long as I can remember (around 2006 or so), but I do like her here.

She'll handle Petkovic easily, and then she has the game and confidence to get the better of either Petra (who's pretty poor atm) or CSN in the semi's.

Her opponent in the final doesn't concern me all that much, and I'll probably have the option to lay off at decent odds if I so choose.

C'mon Bright Eyes, lets do it a second time!

**Coolsmarti** · 02-26-15, 06:11 AM

Think I will tail you on this! Looks solid! BOL.

**JC1186** · 02-26-15, 08:06 PM

Lucie down to 4.20 now on Pinnacle.

Ideally she wins tonight and Venus somehow wins against Aza.

Given Lucie smashed Venus a week or two again in Dubai (where Venus had won the tournament the last 3 times she played there - so had a TON of motivation), the odds should be sweet for a lay off.

Azarenka on the other hand has a convincing h2h against Safarova. But I'm totally confident she can beat her this time around.

The market would however eat that shiite up (Aza having a 6-0 h2h) and more than likely make her the solid favourite.

In which case I'll ride Lucie all the way.

Still, Carla won't be easily. She's 2.70 on Pinnacle right now to beat Lucie, but tbh, I'd make her quite a bit shorter than that. She's playing good ball and her backhand is mint, so the lefty doesn't quite have that same advantage.

**kenz** · 02-27-15, 01:41 AM

Never liked Safarova and faded her against Stosur, Stosur first set @2.60 but lost

Should take over.

Good odds you have but both games will be tough. Venus looked exceptioannly whoreshit against Safarova last week, this week she is better. Azarenka is tough.

CSN looks phyisically weak to me, and a 3 set game might favor Safarova as she is physically stronger. But cant be easy. BOL JC, good odds you have.

**Honeybadger44** · 02-27-15, 03:47 AM

@ kenz
I don't think it's completely fair to say that Safarova won that match in Dubai, because Venus looked whoreshit. Lucie played on a high level. Haven't seen such a dominant serving performance by a women in a while...

and yeah, good luck JC! Hope Safarova comes through for you once again.

**JC1186** · 02-27-15, 06:03 AM

Cheers fellas, appreciate the comments.

Have to agree with HB that although Venus wasn't at her best, Safarova was frankly superb.

And when Lucie's executing her aggressive game to perfection, she's right up there with the Serena's, Maria's, Petra's and Vika's of the game.

**kenz** · 02-27-15, 11:54 AM

Venus did not run at all that day. She was as slow as a turtle.

BOL JC, one more!

**JC1186** · 02-28-15, 06:55 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

Azarenka on the other hand has a convincing h2h against Safarova. But I'm totally confident she can beat her this time around.

The market would however eat that shiite up (Aza having a 6-0 h2h) and more than likely make her the solid favourite.

In which case I'll ride Lucie all the way.

Decisions, decisions, decisions..

**Honeybadger44** · 02-28-15, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

Decisions, decisions, decisions..

Yeah, tough one. It's difficult to make a proper hedge at current odds. I think it all comes down to how bad you need this money. If you need it bad, then hedge. If this is 1 unit bet for you, then let it fly. Or you can go in-play and wait for better odds/situation.

Whatever you decide, good luck!

**JC1186** · 02-28-15, 07:45 AM

Cheers HB.

It's done.

Overall:

+$567 Vika

+$4098 Lucie

Going with Lucie, but always like to lock in some profit. It just feels "right". Had various amounts up in excel and this split is what sat well with me.

Sooooo, lets go Bright Eyes!