The "Outright Tournament Winner" THREAD

**kenz** · 06-18-14, 03:33 AM

Halep probably tanks thats why I took Govo +6 @1.99 yesterday, wish I took 6.5 @1.75ish as my bet voided. First set was good though 7-5.

She is not the 250s girl like last year, now she is number 3 and has to perform well in Wimbledon.

I also tried to understand her playing pattern for 2014 yesterday. She was deep in Aus Open then tanked in Paris next week. Won Doha tanked in Dubai. Good in Indian Wells tanked in Stuttgart. Good in Madrid tanked in Rome. Very good in Roland Garros now I expect her to tank here to be fresh in Wimbledon.

**kenz** · 06-18-14, 03:36 AM

JC you are from Australia, I read on papers one Aussie won 200,000 Australian Dollars for Li Na * Wawrinka outright parlay betting 400(if not asparagas). Can you ask him what he thinks for Wimbledon?

**kenz** · 06-18-14, 03:37 AM

No love for Tomic?

**SirtySree** · 06-18-14, 03:45 AM

Tsonga for Wimbledon. Always done good on grass and just Murray who always gives him trouble but Murray out of form this year although that being said, Tsonga is out of form too. Only difference is could be value to win like his quarter or something depending on the draw.

**JC1186** · 06-18-14, 04:30 AM

Originally posted by kenz

No love for Tomic?

A lot of love for Tomic actually. Thought your bet was a great one from the start.

He's value for the tournament along with Benneteau @ 23's to break his tournament duck in the bottom half.

**JC1186** · 06-18-14, 07:41 AM

Have to say $100 on Pavic was one stupid ass bet. It was either him or Sousa @ 16's for the top half. Went with Pavic because he was 2.50 for the match (at the time) and 51's for the tournament.

Stupid rookie mistake. I knew those odds of 1.65/2.50 were incorrect, and poorly, allowed that to influence me.

**NguyenImproved** · 06-18-14, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by JC1186

Have to say $100 on Pavic was one stupid ass bet. It was either him or Sousa @ 16's for the top half. Went with Pavic because he was 2.50 for the match (at the time) and 51's for the tournament.

Stupid rookie mistake. I knew those odds of 1.65/2.50 were incorrect, and poorly, allowed that to influence me.

Wow...have you ever picked a winner mate? Sousa was a shoe in.

I always wondered who the idiots were that placed these kinda bets. But thanks for sating my curiosity.

**brodie** · 06-18-14, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by NguyenImproved

Wow...have you ever picked a winner mate? Sousa was a shoe in.

I always wondered who the idiots were that placed these kinda bets. But thanks for sating my curiosity.

this guy already starting to piss me off and he's been on here for 5 days

**baconbets** · 06-18-14, 08:54 PM

i have a few sheckles on RBA at 16:1. if he can clear his side of the bracket, anyone he faces from the top half should be +money for easy hedging. this tournament has some of the most lopsided futures, currently. literally everyone in the bottom half is more favored to win than everyone in the top. never seen that before.

**JC1186** · 06-18-14, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by baconbets

i have a few sheckles on RBA at 16:1. if he can clear his side of the bracket, anyone he faces from the top half should be +money for easy hedging. this tournament has some of the most lopsided futures, currently. literally everyone in the bottom half is more favored to win than everyone in the top. never seen that before.

Indeed. Makes sense though given the players in the top half.

You never know with Sousa though. He made the KL final late last year against all odds. That was on IHC. His least favoured surface. He toughened the match out, saved a MP against the notorious Finals choker (Benneteau - something like 0-9 in Finals the poor bugger), and won the tournament.

**frugalgambler** · 06-19-14, 12:30 AM

RBA vs Mahut ? Hmm. Mahut is usually a wizard on grass and is the defending champ, why are the odds almost even ? Mahut 2-0 @+190 looks pretty enticing. Hmm.

**JC1186** · 06-19-14, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

RBA vs Mahut ? Hmm. Mahut is usually a wizard on grass and is the defending champ, why are the odds almost even ? Mahut 2-0 @+190 looks pretty enticing. Hmm.

If RBA wasn't show piss poor against Ebden he'd probably be favourite.

Mahut's not the same player. If you saw the Coppejans (who was making his main draw debut) match you'd know why.

Still, even though I'm on RBA outright I'll admit the odds on Mahut are tempting. But just no way I could back Mahut given what I saw the other day.

**frugalgambler** · 06-19-14, 03:05 AM

Did not Mahut take care of another, more capable no-name dude the next day pretty efficiently ? That was his second match on grass. This would be his third. Let's see how it goes. I am not saying he will definitely win 2-0 or even win at all, but RBA is not the guy to back on grass.

As for making the main draw debut: that is usually a big occasion for the newcomer, while Mahut might have thought that he had nothing to worry about. I admit I am throwing darts here since I have not actually watched pretty much any tennis after RG. But still, this looks like an interesting line.

**JC1186** · 06-19-14, 03:25 AM

Would you really put Johnson ahead of RBA? On all surfaces - I wouldn't.

He may not be the guy to back on grass. Yet. But I do think the verdict is out on him. I don't see why he can't have similar success on this surface as he does on Indoor Hard.

I do specifically remember his match against Ferrer at Wimbledon last year and Bautista did impress me. He was up a break in the 4th set and almost took it to 5.

He does however seem to be in a bit of a form slump relative to early this year.

**Bumdeal** · 06-19-14, 08:38 AM

Tailed you on Sousa , JC. good call.

I have camila giorgi to win in eastborne at +1100, if she gets by wozniacki it looks like her chances just got a whole lot better.

**Bumdeal** · 06-19-14, 09:38 AM

Boooo Camila. You break my heart.

**Cappinpicks** · 06-19-14, 09:53 AM

take mashithut to get it bak

**Bumdeal** · 06-19-14, 09:57 AM

I'm scared of Mahut. My morning plays were Sousa and Pospisil.

Might take Chardy light.

**NguyenImproved** · 06-19-14, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by Bumdeal

I'm scared of Mahut. My morning plays were Sousa and Pospisil.

Might take Chardy light.

Haven't seen him play but isn't Lopez in form at the moment

**JC1186** · 06-20-14, 08:04 AM

Surprised to see RBA as fav against Melzer. Big match for me. If he comes through he'll be the strong fav in the final against either Becker or Sousa. In which case I'd definitely lay off for a 1.5K+ profit.

**JC1186** · 06-20-14, 09:47 AM

On second thought Sousa/Becker would be an odds of 3.0+ dog at least. They're playing like shit. So I'd be able to lock 2K profit in if RBA beats Melzer.

Win or lose hopefully he turns up.

**JC1186** · 06-20-14, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by JC1186

Bottom half:

[ATTACH]69841[/ATTACH]

That's Bautista-Agut @ 11's.

The bottom half is where the better players are. Bautista-Agut gets the nod from me.

Ebden
Mahut (who albeit the defending champion - was horrendous against Coppejans yesterday)/Johnson
Verdasco/Melzer

To make the final. In which case he'd be the pretty huge favourite to take the title.

The Spaniard was improved immensely this year. Can't see why his game wouldn't be just as good on grass as HC. Where he has beaten Berdych and Del Potro this year.

With the exception of the Verdasco/Melzer match I think he has it very easy.

And through he goes into the final. I patiently await the odds. Hopefully from odds of about 11 to 1.40ish.

**Cappinpicks** · 06-20-14, 12:58 PM

fart face melzhit was -650 in the 3rd set LOL not like any dogs win in atp

**JC1186** · 06-20-14, 02:41 PM

If Becker remains at 2.40ish I don't think I can lay off. I just couldn't justify it. He doesn't deserve to be that short.

I'm off to bed and hopefully the odds drift overnight.

I'd take Becker @ 2.70 or else I'm letting it ride.

**baconbets** · 06-20-14, 05:06 PM

i have RBA and i'm hedging out on becker at +money. pretty rare to walk into a final with a long future on one side and the opponent is +money on the other side. usually you take future on a guy like RBA and he plays murray in the final, and murray is like -700 or something stupid, so you can barely hedge.

SEAL IN THE FRESHNESS

**JC1186** · 06-21-14, 02:06 AM

Indeed. It's pretty sweet.

Bautista-Agut shortening all the time. Stupid market really got it wrong last night lol.

Think I'll wait just before the start to lay off. Wouldn't be surprised if B-A shortens to 1.50 on Betfair - gifting us 3's on Becker.

**JC1186** · 06-21-14, 06:46 AM

Have laid off. 2Kish profit. Can't trust Bautista-Agut in a final against a wily veteran, so it was a pretty logical decision.

Originally posted by NguyenImproved

Wow...have you ever picked a winner mate? Sousa was a shoe in.

I always wondered who the idiots were that placed these kinda bets. But thanks for sating my curiosity.

Oh and how could I forgot the biggest fcukwit I've come across on the Internet. Who trash talked me when my odds of 50/1 outright bet lost.

A bit too thick to realise my Bautista bet could soon put me in a solid winning position.

Suck it tosser.

**pipita17** · 06-21-14, 07:57 AM

now that is what i would call a nice tipping. great work jc

**NguyenImproved** · 06-21-14, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

Have laid off. 2Kish profit. Can't trust Bautista-Agut in a final against a wily veteran, so it was a pretty logical decision.

Oh and how could I forgot the biggest fcukwit I've come across on the Internet. Who trash talked me when my odds of 50/1 outright bet lost.

A bit too thick to realise my Bautista bet could soon put me in a solid winning position.

Suck it tosser.

Credit where it's due. I will concede that was an astute bet.

**Cessation** · 06-22-14, 12:18 AM

It saved them some money in this case but do you think Pinny care if you take the future and the hedge with them?

Aussie based books would not like it. Pinny is different, I know, but I'm undecided on it.

**JC1186** · 06-22-14, 05:17 AM

Given they're arbitrage friendly, I see no reason why they'd have a problem with it. Most people would lay off in said scenario (odds of 11 into 1.49) so it wouldn't be in their best interest to police it.

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/betting-promotions/arbitrage-friendly

**JC1186** · 06-22-14, 09:38 AM

There's lots of reason to like Safarova for the Quarter imo. It's a weak section.

Azarenka, Muguruza and Radwanska are all hugely vulnerable. Safarova has the game, if "on it", to beat all of them in current form.

I'll be looking to lay off in the Quarters. If it's against Radwanska whom Safarova has a great h2h against, I'll think twice.

**beefcake** · 06-22-14, 11:02 AM

Love the Safarova bet!!

**JC1186** · 06-25-14, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Love the Safarova bet!!

Thanks.

With Azarenka out, Safarova has a very favourable run to make the Quarters.

Either Cibulkova/Uutynakkukduck (into a 3rd set now) next.
Jovanovski/Smitkova in the 4th round.

Looking quite lovely atm given the odds.