braves are garbage, i would have taken seattle if i had any balls.
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why cant braves hit a lick iwakuma been giving up bombs latelyComment -
im annoyed that 5D doesn't have any live bet options for murray / monfil - wtf is that.Comment -
ya, i just don't trust iwakuma to make it to the bullpen without giving up a run or two. i'll take the home team here, also really like Minor.Comment -
bummerComment -
eat shit minor giving up 2 hits to scrubComment -
feel bad for monfils sticking to tennisComment -
Yeah we're typically one of the best home teams in the league, very rarely getting swept (other than 2 gm series like today) - somehow got swept by the Marlins, but that was at the beginning of the year when they were pretty hot. Our Achilles heel lately ironically enough has been our normally consistent bullpen, so I definitely feel better about our chances if Minor can go deep.Comment -
why is Blow joke upton hitting 2nd? talk about wanting auto outs to start your lineupComment -
ah yes. walking the american league pitcher. that's good stuff.Comment -
lol nadalComment -
ok seattle inplay minor and upton are unwatchableComment -
upton auto out killed another rallyComment -
it's a "grams of diamonds" vs. "tons of coal you have to sift thru" thing
a big part of the latter is the sloppiness/crudeness of the posting style...the guy definitely is crap on the expression of how he's thinkin' and why and exactly what he's playing...and (most maddening of all) when he posts
as for the former: there's an underlying sharpness to the challenger games he singles out for his "free money" alerts...and many of these are posted pre-game...and his crude posts got me to look at an interesting match i'd have otherwise overlooked...and i far more often than not have concurred that the books are often, probably intentionally (if only to avoid hanging a 1.9/1.90) making a near-coin flip (no h2h/similar rank) look like a clear mismatch...
so i appreciate the crude "heads ups" from our low-netiquette (but definitely not low-IQ) friend...especially in the Challenger-tennis level...
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Cappin': new plan--post here in any style you like, bud...seems like we've got a little thread-following building
I'll digest them and turn them into CP-inspired/FG-filtered plays and keep a detailed record...starting NOW
the stuff from you i'm clearly most interested in is that which deals with
*Challenger tennis (aka 'da Scrubs) and to a lesser extent
*WTA "tennis" (aka 'da Broads)...
so please post any of your comments on these two markets in this thread (I'll try to digest them and turn them into plays with clear amounts risked/targeted specified)
Last edited by fitguy67; 06-04-14, 04:28 PM.Comment -
can we count the 8-0/parlay atleast since im not getting credit for the 11/12 winners singles on my 12 teamer that shoulda hit without the fa ggot klahn? only makes sense check the bouchard thread for first 5Comment -
Winner murryComment -
Cap you think youll ever post a pick in this thread before the match starts or is it all in play?Comment -
i'll start with a fresh...all "inspired by CappinPicks" (mostly daScrubs & daBroads) tennis plays
meaning all the $/units that show up here will be thanks to you and your "holy shit, books are giving away free money again by making that bleep-bleepin' _____ a favorite"
at the same time
if you think i'm missing anything...you can start posting your own plays in a precise way so that actual $/units (you choose) won or lost can be calculated once they're graded. Just saying who you think will win isn't good enough.Comment -
good point...unless you got an in-play line that's gettable as you hit the submit button at or very near what you're crowing about...you've better off NOT posting at all...
but "hurry...such and such is still available at b365 near ____ where i got it a minute ago" posts are ok...but only as a public service...
in-play efforts can be used to pad your account, enjoy the money if you hit some there...and bear your losses like a man too...but in-play shit is strictly off-record
i'm sure HC is pretty sharp with his careful occasional in-play efforts...but he never clutters his thread with 'emComment -
For me, Cappin' it's all about the challengers...don't force it, pal...just pop in here the next time u wanna post that the line is f'd up...i'll look into it, and if i agree (which i usually do...cuz it's usually 2 guyz with no h2h, similar-ranking...and one guy'll be -175 or so...and more often it's the lower-ranked dude they put the chalk-stripe on...i'm always happy to get a near coin flip with a fat bonus payout on the one they seem to just call the "dog" without good reason) ...i think one of the reasons is the books don't wanna hang 1.9/1.9 (-110/-110), cuz they don't want the truth--that they don't REALLY...have a freakin' clue about the match--to be obvious...so instead they pick one at random...put him at 1.57...to make it look like they know something the rest of us don't
anyhow, unless there's a reason to do something else, for any of these questionable challenger lines i'll play to win a single unit...and i'll keep track of 'em right here...
Anyone else notice a similar thing at Challenger level of tennis when two no-h2h/similar-ranking guys are scheduled...almost never see anything like coin-flip odds? They seem to pick one at random and make him a surprisingly-big fave...when the match is played, it usually turns out to be a 3-set war with the fat-payout dog either winning or losing by a hair...
i think there's a ton of money to be lost by auto-backing big challenger faves with no h2h and less than 50 ranking places between players (unless there's some obvious extenuating factor, such as a long layoff)...cuz i suspect the books are much more than we'd think possible...just designating one emphatically as a favorite, almost at random...to avoid hanging a "we don't have a fukkin' clue 1.9/1.9 line"...it also serves as a "conversation starting" line to generate some action, at least initially on the snubbed dog...
so when i see something like this...rather than suspect a "trap" on the dog side...i suspect "wonder bra" odds on the favorite...Last edited by fitguy67; 06-04-14, 08:24 PM.Comment -
Fit, you must be some kind of clairvoyant or something, cause when I try to back into Cappins record looking earlier in the thread I;m completely lost. Maybe you speak Cappin and thats good if he is really a winner. You can translate for the rest of us that don't know what the heck he is talking about.Comment -
Cappin and Fitguy, to be honest, if any record of plays is to be kept it should be pre-game. Don't get me wrong, it does take some capping skill to be able to make money live wagering - I made a decent sum myself with a system I developed with college hoops - but the bottom line is most of us can't live wager anything other than the grand slam tennis matches. I'd like to see an American book that offers something other than moneylines for Challenger/ITF. 5dimes is very limited (didn't even offer anything live for the Murray/Monfils match earlier), and certainly doesn't have live for Challengers, etc.
Cappin, the bottom line is that people will respect you much more as a capper if you post picks before the matches start, and more than just 10 or 15 min before too. This is your turn to prove yourself and haters that you know what you're doing! BOL with everything!
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I agree completely...that's 100% my intention...Cappin and Fitguy, to be honest, if any record of plays is to be kept it should be pre-game. Don't get me wrong, it does take some capping skill to be able to make money live wagering - I made a decent sum myself with a system I developed with college hoops - but the bottom line is most of us can't live wager anything other than the grand slam tennis matches. I'd like to see an American book that offers something other than moneylines for Challenger/ITF. 5dimes is very limited (didn't even offer anything live for the Murray/Monfils match earlier), and certainly doesn't have live for Challengers, etc.
Cappin, the bottom line is that people will respect you much more as a capper if you post picks before the matches start, and more than just 10 or 15 min before too. This is your turn to prove yourself and haters that you know what you're doing! BOL with everything!
Cappin' is heavily netiquette-challenged...but when i investigate some cryptic thing he says (on those semi-rare occasions when it happens to be pre-game) about some scrub-league or gash-racket match...i do tend to agree...scares me, really...
but yeah...only the stuff posted pre-game is worth anything...and it's the only thing i'd bother to post and track...
the angle here is contrarian in essence...give some credence to a source that most ignore just because they find it so annoyingComment -
ok tennis winner 9 in a row make it D evans tomorrow morning parlay with mullerComment -
open an account with bovada if you want the easy money winners can only post so much pre game not paid to waste my time here
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bovada live betting tools are very powerful. the match win money line changes with every point, which allows for some amazing hedging opportunities.
pre-match betting is just for fun, in my opinion. the only real way to consistently win in tennis is watch the first set, get an idea of who is actually trying (yes, even in a major this needs to be investigated), and then bet the rest of the match accordingly.
other options include game money lines. assuming the pre-match line was about even, the server will have maybe a -400 chance to win the game, depending on style and surface. but, as we know, there is a big difference between trying to hold serve when you are serving at 0-0 and trying to close out the set when you are serving up 5-1. the player behind in the set will generally be happy to tank away the return game, saving energy for the next set and to begin on serve. pointless to hustle for a break back when the set is still out of reach. but you generally won't find that the game money line odds take these kinds of intangibles into account, so there is a ton of value (yes, there can be value in a -500 line). nothing works every time, but betting on a 5 set match before it even starts seems insane. you get a decent idea of where guys are at after watching the first set.Comment -
me too...see post #64 above...
guy's posts are autistically cryptic...but on the rare occasions he posts something before gametime...especially in the fringe tennis markets...i've learned to at least "ef hutton" the match that somehow got him riled up in one way or another...
one thing i remember from several weeks ago, clear as a bell, was how he'd be on this challenger player..."muller" as being free money every day...for days and days and days...and nobody listened/responded to his ridiculous "more Muller free money today" posts cuz it was just CP being CP....well this was in the earliest days of what we now know to be the guys amazing streak...finally the rest of the "normal folk" on this board started taking note of the guy's resurgence...but by then it's too late...he's only challenger-level parlay fodder now...also CP has noticeds something actually exploitable about americans being made favorites over and over and over, almost as a knee-jerk default (perhaps to attract square american bettors)...
anyhow, i thought if i could at least corrall some of this guy's musings into one place i'd be able to make more "heads/tails" of it...but as you've noted, the product refuses to be refined
still, i'll do my best to be the "CappinWhisperer" here...and cull whatever is useful from what most others find merely annoying ... and translate it into actual plays that might be considered for tailing or fadingLast edited by fitguy67; 06-04-14, 11:11 PM.Comment
