Pounding Djokovic over Nadal for maximum bet $2K

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm not passing up the chance to grab Djokovic at only -135 against Nadal tomorrow. I fully understand that Nadal has been in very solid form all tournament long but once you can grab the best hardcourt player on the planet at less than -175 .....you can't pass up that opportunity. These odds don't come around much if ever again for Djokovic on this surface.

Djokovic is hungry to be back in #1 again and normally this line would be in the -175 range but books are giving Nadal too much credit here. Nadal has beaten Djokovic twice on hardcourts last year but Nadal is nowhere near that insane form he was in back in mid 2013. He's shown periods of weakness on the hardcourt and that type of form will not come anywhere close to beating Djoker.

Unless Nadal has an unreal lights out performance, he will struggle against Djoker on this surface. I'm pounding this line for the maximum at my book.



Best of Luck

[MagicDiceFlow]

Ticket Details :
Wager Type : Money Line
Wager Status : Pending
Risk / To Win Amount : 2,700.00 / 2,000.00(USD)
Accepted : 3/29/2014 9:39PM - PST


Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : N. Djokovic
Time : 3/30/2014 11:40:01AM - (PST)
Line : -135
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

[jbart28]

Holy hell gl MDF! Stick and move brother!

[lucullus]

Big balls baby. That's how you do it! Great play

I regret not taking Djokovic in his streak during the end of the year BNP Masters series, last season

[MagicDiceFlow]

I had a really good March Madness capped off with an awesome weekend thus I'm letting it ride fellas. This is the best bet of the whole tournament. I was going to ride Djokovic straight through to the finals anyways and bet on him regardless who he played. Even better that he gets to play Nadal and keep that line sweet and low.

Good luck guys

[GiveMeaBJ]

hows ur tennis track? mayb join u on this one

[tipsadontlikehim]

[tipsadontlikehim]

hows ur tennis track? mayb join u on this one

who is that chick ?

[poet]

I don't know. I think Djoker has looked shaky too (losing to Fed then almost losing to him at Indian Wells). Even Andy had his chances against him. Let me ask you this MDF, do you see this going three sets? I'm thinking of betting on the guy who loses the first set to win the match (and then hedging in the 3rd set).

[SlimZ]

Ok will join u on Djokovic as well, i totally agree with ur write up

[GiveMeaBJ]

who is that chick ?

tori black go watch her suck nd penetrate its veyr therapuetvi

[tipsadontlikehim]

thanx i'll grab the tissues and be back in half an hour

[MagicDiceFlow]

I don't know. I think Djoker has looked shaky too (losing to Fed then almost losing to him at Indian Wells). Even Andy had his chances against him. Let me ask you this MDF, do you see this going three sets? I'm thinking of betting on the guy who loses the first set to win the match (and then hedging in the 3rd set).

If Nadal serves well , he may take a set. If Nadal happens to win the first set, I would pound Djoker for the match. Djoker plays very well from behind. However, if Djoker wins the first set and you see him with good first serve percentage, I wouldnt touch it because he can straight set Nadal when he's in that zone.

[MagicDiceFlow]

thanx i'll grab the tissues and be back in half an hour

Half an hour is pretty good........15 minutes tops is all I need, especially with the genius invention of the fast forward button.

[Honeybadger44]

To me, this one is really difficult to cap. These two guys are so close, that small details will decide the winner. My initial thought is that neither can finish of his opponent easily in this one, so the over presents itself as a logical play.
Case can be build for both sides here, for sure. Yes Djoković is probably the best hardcourt player, but he doesn't look that sharp to me on this tournament. Of course, he need an opponent of the same level, to bring the best out of him and I think that will happen here and we will see his best performance of the tournament.
On the other side, Nadal played some lights out tennis in some of the matches here. He is in better tournament form then Nole, slower surface will allow him to play his game and I believe that wind will effect his game less then Novak's.
AS I said, it is very tough to call this one, on the ML. With gun to my head, I would go with Rafa, just because I think they are even, while books are giving us +120 for his win. Over seems like the best bet for this match.

[MagicDiceFlow]

To me, this one is really difficult to cap. These two guys are so close, that small details will decide the winner. My initial thought is that neither can finish of his opponent easily in this one, so the over presents itself as a logical play.
Case can be build for both sides here, for sure. Yes Djoković is probably the best hardcourt player, but he doesn't look that sharp to me on this tournament. Of course, he need an opponent of the same level, to bring the best out of him and I think that will happen here and we will see his best performance of the tournament.
On the other side, Nadal played some lights out tennis in some of the matches here. He is in better tournament form then Nole, slower surface will allow him to play his game and I believe that wind will effect his game less then Novak's.
AS I said, it is very tough to call this one, on the ML. With gun to my head, I would go with Rafa, just because I think they are even, while books are giving us +120 for his win. Over seems like the best bet for this match.

Nadal played some lights out tennis this tourney but I don't buy into it much. Take a look at his competition so far. Other than Raonic, all his opponents have been weak hardcourt players. The only other decent hardcourt player he ran into the last month at Indian Wells or Miami is Dolgopolov and Dolgo beat him thus I don't buy into his wins here so far in Miami.

The Over seems like a logical bet but I like Djokovic -135 much more. I know Djokovic will come super focused and ready to play, he always does at Masters 1000 finals especially on hard.

GL

[Honeybadger44]

It's not about the names, but how they played in those matches. For example, Istomin is not a big name, but he played very good against Nadal few rounds ago (at least in first set), and he won 1 game. Total.
Joker will definitely come to play. There is no doubt about it. But these two guys know each other so well. This is their 40th h2h match... As I said, my oppinion is that it will be very close, but that is also why the line is 23,5...

Anyway, we are going to see a great match. Good luck with your play!

[MiDNiTe]

on the joker train too rafa no way near form of u.s open last and bof 3 suits joker, rafa didnt look that great against milos too

[GoBlue77]

RAFA owns joker sorry

[tipsadontlikehim]

heart says Rafa, mind says Novak

[Brooklyn Dick]

Going to be windy. 23K.

[jjgold]

Hard to go against Joker here although I have been picking everything wrong since Jan 1

[Hardcoar]

I can't believe you don't even mention the wind factor, but I'm glad you're on the same track as I am all the same.

I made a summarizing write-up by request. Please refer to:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-betting/2751420-threads-mooooooar-threeeeeeads-my-fourth-pickin-thread-3-a-p24.html#post21516416

[Brooklyn Dick]

1

1:38pm 29-Mar-14

11:35am 30-Mar-14

Tennis Match Odds

Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic for Match.

-132

3,960.00

3,000.00

Pending

I like it and played it but it will not be easy.

[JustSomeCash]

So much bullshit in this thread lol..I dont even know where to start

First i have a Q to MDF...what "periods of weakness" you talking about? do you even watching both in Miami?

Also...."Unless Nadal has an unreal lights out performance, he will struggle against Djoker on this surface."

You say Nadal need to give "unreal lights out performance" to win,so I guess for you Joker is in top form,like in '11..
because of how it sounds, Joker dont have to do anything special. you're talking about Nadal like he was Nishikori..


And the big shit in this thread the icing on the cake....how a male can not know who is Tori Black???!

I have so much to add to slay all of your Joker-easywin-version, but I do not have that much time right now, hope I can share it later,

[JustSomeCash]

It's not about the names, but how they played in those matches. For example, Istomin is not a big name, but he played very good against Nadal few rounds ago (at least in first set), and he won 1 game. Total.
Joker will definitely come to play. There is no doubt about it. But these two guys know each other so well. This is their 40th h2h match... As I said, my oppinion is that it will be very close, but that is also why the line is 23,5...

Anyway, we are going to see a great match. Good luck with your play!

Happy to see that one guy saw waht i saw in this turny,if Nole was playing against Isto on this day,he was take him at least to TB.

[MiDNiTe]

how are you isto would take joker to a tb wtf? Different days different players different results

[JustSomeCash]

how are you isto would take joker to a tb wtf? Different days different players different results

I saw some game of Nole vs Isto,mybe it wasnt a TB but when Istom play soild he manage to finish the game with res. score line,636375 / 63 63 / and even won 1 set against him 62,than lost 46 46 . so if you saw Isto against Nadal you was know Isto play great.

[Pinocchio]

Nadal to win the first set.

[ProlificalD]

I like the Joker line too. For Tori Black, I strangled it enough in the past with her earlier shit.

[matt1216]

I've seen these exact odds on 1st set wagering come thru many times.... Djokovic 1st set ML @1.74 . I believe joker falls asleep in set 2.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Happy to see that one guy saw waht i saw in this turny,if Nole was playing against Isto on this day,he was take him at least to TB.

Not a chance. Djoker would have destroyed Istomin, it wouldnt have been close. In all their five matchups on Isto vs Djoker, Isto hasnt even come close.

He destroyed him in straight sets on four occasions , even on this same surface at Miami it was a 6-1 6-0 beating so it's foolish to think even if Istomin played his best game that he would come close. You have to realize Nadal's game is heavily dependent on guys that cannot handle that extreme topspin. On days when he leaves those groundstrokes high and lifeless, he gets pounded by guys that know how to handle that topspin ......Djoker is one of those guys (and the best of them).

[fitguy67]

I've seen these exact odds on 1st set wagering come thru many times.... Djokovic 1st set ML @1.74 . I believe joker falls asleep in set 2.

...and hopefully wakes up in the 3rd? (i hope that's what the odds are telling you, Matt)...

[sheshellsseasail]

...and hopefully wakes up in the 3rd? (i hope that's what the odds are telling you, Matt)...

OH Matt? He' so divine! He's mavelous darling! He knows! Odds say Djoker in 3, it's $O obvious.

[Honeybadger44]

Not a chance. Djoker would have destroyed Istomin, it wouldnt have been close. In all their five matchups on Isto vs Djoker, Isto hasnt even come close.

He destroyed him in straight sets on four occasions , even on this same surface at Miami it was a 6-1 6-0 beating so it's foolish to think even if Istomin played his best game that he would come close. You have to realize Nadal's game is heavily dependent on guys that cannot handle that extreme topspin. On days when he leaves those groundstrokes high and lifeless, he gets pounded by guys that know how to handle that topspin ......Djoker is one of those guys (and the best of them).

Bold: Yes and no. Of course, those guys which can't handle his topspin, have no chance. But it also depends on which surface is played. Not only the bounce, but also the speed. If surface is slow, Nadal can move to his forehand more often and also has more time to prepare for the shot and get full swing on it, which cause more spin on the ball... This surface will allow him to do that.

Also, you have to have great gameplan to beat Nadal and also execute it to perfection. Novak's plan in most of the matches was to be very defensive and patient. As soon as he got too excited, tried to attack, come to the net, he got punched in the face. I am sure that he has good gameplan for today as well, but can he execute it to perfection? We will see.

As I wrote couple of times, I am huge Djokovic's fan and one thing is sure. He needs top guys on the other side of the net, to draw the best out of him. That is why his previous matches are not so relevant, because I am pretty sure we will see his best performance tonight. That is one thing which is holding me back, not to bet Nadal here. So I will probably just watch and enjoy some great tennis tonihgt.