LI NA -105 to win the Australian Open is a great bet

[MagicDiceFlow]

Li will be about a -275 favorite against Cibu in the final. I guarantee it will be over -200.

[shari91]

I will prob fade Li Na

[stepanekslips]

Respect! I thought the way she handled Azarerenka, Cibs would b no trouble. Good chance she wins it all now.

The best bet I see is, Cibulkova to win it all at 8:1.

[ThaTopMoron]

just gonna take 1 stab for the tournament... especially if Stan wins again in a minute

hoping she just takes the momentum she has and jumps all over her opportunity to win like she did today

nothing against MDF at all, he is a big winner with tennis seems like this is his cash cow

just the women's side is crazy and you never know

[MagicDiceFlow]

Well fellas , looks like we made a good bet grabbing this future earlier today. All we had to do is beat Bouchard and now we get a -260 favorite for only -105 in the final.

As much as I love my girl Cibu , I'm not hedging jackshit and sticking with my conviction that Li will win this title.

Best of Luck

[frugalgambler]

Well fellas , looks like we made a good bet grabbing this future earlier today. All we had to do is beat Bouchard and now we get a -260 favorite for only -105 in the final.

As much as I love my girl Cibu , I'm not hedging jackshit and sticking with my conviction that Li will win this title.

Best of Luck

GL MDF. I will probably hedge: right now I have a couple of future bets risking 4u to win 5u+; but I would rather take 2u guaranteed and avoid relying on Li Na's nerves.

On a side note, what do you think about Berdych's chances today ? I got him to win the 1st set at +110 odds and I think it is a decent bet.

[bavaria9]

GL with your pick.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Let get it MDF

need the Li ml to complete a parlay

66438324-1 1/23/2014 9:17AM Parlay
Basketball - 502 Miami Heat -895 for Game
Basketball - 517 Florida -215 for Game
Basketball - 519 Charlotte +21 -501 buying 8 for Game
Basketball - 538 Cincinnati -1420 for Game
Basketball - 542 Arizona -1260 for Game
Basketball - 566 UCLA -245 for Game
Basketball - 584 Belmont -385 for Game
Basketball - 598 Murray State -345 for Game
Basketball - 31855 Maccabi Electra Tel Aviv -735 for Game
Basketball - 31859 Regal FC Barcelona -547 for Game
Tennis - 8257 R. Nadal -145 for Game
Tennis - 8761 N. Li -255 for Game

[MagicDiceFlow]

Let get it MDF

need the Li ml to complete a parlay

66438324-1 1/23/2014 9:17AM Parlay
Basketball - 502 Miami Heat -895 for Game
Basketball - 517 Florida -215 for Game
Basketball - 519 Charlotte +21 -501 buying 8 for Game
Basketball - 538 Cincinnati -1420 for Game
Basketball - 542 Arizona -1260 for Game
Basketball - 566 UCLA -245 for Game
Basketball - 584 Belmont -385 for Game
Basketball - 598 Murray State -345 for Game
Basketball - 31855 Maccabi Electra Tel Aviv -735 for Game
Basketball - 31859 Regal FC Barcelona -547 for Game
Tennis - 8257 R. Nadal -145 for Game
Tennis - 8761 N. Li -255 for Game

Li will take the title tonight. Good luck Heineken.

[ardacet8]

Once you said it that Li is a real good bet, I took it at evens with my 10/10 stake MagicDiceFlow. Yesterday I found +238 odds for Cibu and i placed some in order to guarantee "not to lose money". If Li NA wins I will win 6,5 units, if Cibu wins i will get a push. Seemed like good math for me! Now i will find a prop and pound it with 3units. Have fun and let's have a nice game!

I guess i have found my prop: Total breaks in the match over 6,5 at 1,714 odds. Looks solid, what do you think?

[MagicDiceFlow]

Once you said it that Li is a real good bet, I took it at evens with my 10/10 stake MagicDiceFlow. Yesterday I found +238 odds for Cibu and i placed some in order to guarantee "not to lose money". If Li NA wins I will win 6,5 units, if Cibu wins i will get a push. Seemed like good math for me! Now i will find a prop and pound it with 3units. Have fun and let's have a nice game!

I guess i have found my prop: Total breaks in the match over 6,5 at 1,714 odds. Looks solid, what do you think?

There will be probably several breaks due to this is the WTA but I'm not sure on 6. In the last several first sets, Li only needed one break to win the set. However, if Cibu pushes this to three sets, it could hit that number.

Good luck on your bets Ardace

[ardacet8]

Or double faults over 5,5 at 5Dimes since it's 7,5 in my other European or Asian books. You nearly get the same price at 5Dimes with 5,5 limit. Or Cibu under 0,5 aces? Let me choose one. Also i looked at the previous matches of both players and breaks are at least about 6, didnt notice sth under 6 and mostly it is more than 6. But this is a final. Nerves while serving or being solid at it? That's the question i guess

[frugalgambler]

Or double faults over 5,5 at 5Dimes since it's 7,5 in my other European or Asian books. You nearly get the same price at 5Dimes with 5,5 limit. Or Cibu under 0,5 aces? Let me choose one. Also i looked at the previous matches of both players and breaks are at least about 6, didnt notice sth under 6 and mostly it is more than 6. But this is a final. Nerves while serving or being solid at it? That's the question i guess

I kinda like Cibu d-faults over 3.5. The only danger is if Li Na breezes through the final, if the matches go long Cibu will reach that number: she has to take risks on the 2nd serve.

[ardacet8]

I kinda like Cibu d-faults over 3.5. The only danger is if Li Na breezes through the final, if the matches go long Cibu will reach that number: she has to take risks on the 2nd serve.

Woww, I just looked at the stats of Cibu in similar matches like todays (big game for her, really good opponent) and double faults under looks really solid "IF and only IF" the match won't go to 3 sets. Every three setter game, Cibu exceed the number 3. Mostly all 2 setter game it's under. I couldn't find a good prop (like Nadal aces under 5,5) since now, maybe i won't force it.

[ardacet8]

Ok it sounds weird and looks like a coin toss but i found it: Average second serve speed Li Na (-12,5). Stats look in my favour, and my theory is that if Cibu can't get her first serve, she won't risk her second because this is a final and she will have nerves and her 2nd service percentage is really good since now. Alright I accept it is not that solid to say but it's worth a shot. Also i will put 1 unit on even games because please look at wta matches in this tournament! They are in very good percentage ended with even games, don't know why! Mens are strictly opposite, they are mostly odd! I will try this both in both finals! BOL to you all, lets get a champion out of Li!

[frugalgambler]

Woww, I just looked at the stats of Cibu in similar matches like todays (big game for her, really good opponent) and double faults under looks really solid "IF and only IF" the match won't go to 3 sets. Every three setter game, Cibu exceed the number 3. Mostly all 2 setter game it's under. I couldn't find a good prop (like Nadal aces under 5,5) since now, maybe i won't force it.

Even if this goes two sets, I still like this prop two reasons: 1) she will be nervous in the final; 2) Li Na returns well and in principle she should be to pound weak 2nd serves so that should force the slovakian to take more risks on the 2nd serve. But yeah, this is an iffy prop and I am going small on it, just for fun to see if I am right.

[frugalgambler]

Ok it sounds weird and looks like a coin toss but i found it: Average second serve speed Li Na (-12,5). Stats look in my favour, and my theory is that if Cibu can't get her first serve, she won't risk her second because this is a final and she will have nerves and her 2nd service percentage is really good since now. Alright I accept it is not that solid to say but it's worth a shot. Also i will put 1 unit on even games because please look at wta matches in this tournament! They are in very good percentage ended with even games, don't know why! Mens are strictly opposite, they are mostly odd! I will try this both in both finals! BOL to you all, lets get a champion out of Li!

It might be just a statistical fluctuations on the odd/even number. I think this one is truly a cointoss and you just gifting the juice to the books.

[ardacet8]

It might be just a statistical fluctuations on the odd/even number. I think this one is truly a cointoss and you just gifting the juice to the books.

I know, i know. But it's 1,94 odds. And as i say it's full of luck but I don't know, I just wanted to try it out because it's the continuing trend (without any reason) and I wanted make some excitement and see if the trend continues, that's all. That's not a investment, that's a gamble like putting $10 on red in roulette.

[frugalgambler]

I know, i know. But it's 1,94 odds. And as i say it's full of luck but I don't know, I just wanted to try it out because it's the continuing trend (without any reason) and I wanted make some excitement and see if the trend continues, that's all. That's not a investment, that's a gamble like putting $10 on red in roulette.

Except you get much a better vig when putting it on red.

[matt1216]

Woww, I just looked at the stats of Cibu in similar matches like todays (big game for her, really good opponent) and double faults under looks really solid "IF and only IF" the match won't go to 3 sets. Every three setter game, Cibu exceed the number 3. Mostly all 2 setter game it's under. I couldn't find a good prop (like Nadal aces under 5,5) since now, maybe i won't force it.

She hasn't played anybody close to what Li Na has played so far. If she's stressed because she has to hold, she will double fault lots

[Semper Fidelis]

What are the chances this goes 3 sets? I see it's only gone the distance once in their h2h? Seriously considering Na Li 2-1 sets, and hedging with Cibulkova ML. Think there's a better chance of that happening than Na Li straights? Thoughts?

[frugalgambler]

What are the chances this goes 3 sets? I see it's only gone the distance once in their h2h? Seriously considering Na Li 2-1 sets, and hedging with Cibulkova ML. Think there's a better chance of that happening than Na Li straights? Thoughts?

Why would you do that ? If anything, if Cibu wins it should be in three sets so you might as well take the 3 sets option.

[frugalgambler]

Actually, after some further consideration I decided to lay off my double faults bet. Not a very solid bet, I think. I went small anyway, and I do not mind losing some juice. I have plenty of action with my futures bet anyway. If anything, Li Na tends to get very tight on big occasions and she might d-fault more than Cibulkova.

[Semper Fidelis]

Oh I see what you mean, that if Cibu does indeed win it most likely won't be in straights. So maybe just the Cibu 2-1 instead of ML for her, and maybe a stab at it ending in 3 sets. In that case it's possible to still win both. Just nervous that Na Li takes it in straights. Perhaps the Under total at + odds to hedge in case that does happen. But then again the score line could read 7-6, 6-3 or something and that total lose... Basically I'm just looking to fill the last leg of a decent parlay, and will hedge with a separate wager. So using Na Li ML for the parlay and hedging with Cibu ML (or 2-1 for crazy good odds) would probably be the best plays.

[frugalgambler]

I cannot really advise you on how to fill your parlay. I do not see a sure strategy. MDF seems to be pretty sure in Li Na, but I think Cibu does have a non-zero chance. GL on whatever you decide.

[Semper Fidelis]

I cannot really advise you on how to fill your parlay. I do not see a sure strategy. MDF seems to be pretty sure in Li Na, but I think Cibu does have a non-zero chance. GL on whatever you decide.

Thanks buddy, I appreciate your input!
Might try and make a shout out to MDF to see if he's still on. It seems like the whole forum is on the Chinese woman, but I honestly think Cibu has a decent chance, at least at those odds anyway. I should probably stop overthinking and second-guessing myself and just play it safe with Li ML, but it's hard to ignore that little voice that says 'wait, you can get a higher payout by being a little riskier!' Lol

[frugalgambler]

Thanks buddy, I appreciate your input!
Might try and make a shout out to MDF to see if he's still on. It seems like the whole forum is on the Chinese woman, but I honestly think Cibu has a decent chance, at least at those odds anyway. I should probably stop overthinking and second-guessing myself and just play it safe with Li ML, but it's hard to ignore that little voice that says 'wait, you can get a higher payout by being a little riskier!' Lol

Plenty of Cibu backers around here, just not in this thread. I hedged my Li Na futures bet so if she wins I am up 3u if she loses I break about even. If I were sure in Li Na, I would not have hedged so aggressively. I think MDF has already stated that he likes Li Na ML here.

[matt1216]

Plenty of Cibu backers around here, just not in this thread. I hedged my Li Na futures bet so if she wins I am up 3u if she loses I break about even. If I were sure in Li Na, I would not have hedged so aggressively. I think MDF has already stated that he likes Li Na ML here.

Bro Li NA is gonna beast Cibulkova. There's gonna be a lot of people wishing they didn't stay up

[innn]

cibu will drain the chi from the chinese. tears will flood down the court when na li 'll realize she must play another five or more finals here to be able to squeeze a title.

she'll have to get to a kimiko krumm age on court to get this forbidden prize

[ThaTopMoron]

looked over others opinions and what not to come to the conclusion I would be foolish to bet against Li Na

Li Na 2-0 set betting for me

MDF sitting cozy with -105 just to win

[frugalgambler]

Cibulkova already with 4 DFs midway through the 1st set. Should not have laid off my bet.

[beefcake]

Great call Dice!

[Bill_Hicks]

Great call Dice!

Second that

[MagicDiceFlow]

Cibu kept it close but wasnt even a contest in the second. Li waxed that ass 6-0.

Gratz fellas on the win