LI NA -105 to win the Australian Open is a great bet

[MagicDiceFlow]

I noticed Li Na's odds today were basically a pick em to win the tournament at this stage. This is an excellent bet in my opinion. When (not if ) she beats Bouchard later today , she will be at least a -200 or higher vs Radwanska and at least -350 against Cibulkova in the finals.

This is Li's tournament to win. None of these players remaining in the tourney(including a top form Radwanska) will be able to beat Li in this form.

To grab her right now at only -105 is tremendous value in my opinion. Wish I could put a dime or more but Heritage max bet is $500 on the future so I'm down for a nickel on this bet.



Best of Luck

[MagicDiceFlow]

Ticket Details :
Wager Type : Future/Prop
Wager Status : Pending
Risk / To Win Amount : 525.00 / 500.00(USD)
Accepted : 1/22/2014 3:11PM - PST


Sport / Event : Tennis Futures
Event : 2014 Australian Open
Selection :
WTA - 2014 Australian OpenOdds to win the 2014 WTA Australia Open
Time : 1/22/2014 8:30PM - (PST)
Line : N. Li-105
Game Notes : All wagers have action, no refunds

[leeloo]

You've been very hot lately and probably right on this but after watching Radwanska's last few games I've become a big fan and think she will win it all.
Best of luck.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Radwanksa played great against Azarenka but the reason why Vika lost is she didnt have the movement to defend those crafty shots by Radwanska. With Li you're getting better movement plus the power. Those crafty shots by ARad won't work on Li all match long. She'll chase them down a lot better than Azarenka.

Good Luck

[lucasdawg]

anymore picks for later?

[frugalgambler]

I was impressed by Li Na's last two rounds that I took her at +170, before Aza lost last night. Remember when Henin won the French Open after saving match points to Kuzzy in an early round. I think Li Na can do the same after saving the match point to Safarova. GL MDF. I did hedge a bit with Bouchard 2-1, just in case.

[lucullus]

I see ur not as confident with li na as u were with federer. Props to the fed bet but i think bouchard may win this tourny

[leeloo]

Radwanksa played great against Azarenka but the reason why Vika lost is she didnt have the movement to defend those crafty shots by Radwanska. With Li you're getting better movement plus the power. Those crafty shots by ARad won't work on Li all match long. She'll chase them down a lot better than Azarenka.

Good Luck

Li Na has been playing well but she can also be fragile and get frustrated specially by someone like Radwanska. With Serena, Sharapova & Azarenka out this is the perfect time for Radwanska to win. Thanks for your comments, I should probably listen to you but have to go with my gut and put a little on Radwanska. Will keep an eye on your other picks and follow as you have been on fire. Keep up the good work.

[Hardcoar]

I think someone who has reached the semifinals may win this tournament too. Am I not a good capper???

[toga toga]

I know li na is going to be a crowd favorite. I will be pulling for radwanska. However, I do believe it is a solid bet and your logic is spot on. Good luck

[frugalgambler]

Li Na is 5-1 over A-Rad on hardcourts, Li Na's her best surface. I am just saying. That being said, I really do not think Li Na will more than a -150 fav A-Rad in the finals. I think you are way off with your -200 prediction, MDF. I think she will be around -140.

[Pinocchio]

The best bet I see is, Cibulkova to win it all at 8:1.

[Hardcoar]

How is that a good bet when the accumulated market odds are at least @ 10:1?

[EaglesPhan36]

Was a lot better at +1475 when it began.

[stepanekslips]

Anything other than ARAd at 2:1 is silly. You kids are a joke.

[MiddleMan]

If Li Na goes one set up in the Final again, will she be mentally strong enough to stay in front and win, unlike her last two attempts in the Aus Open Final?

[MagicDiceFlow]

Li Na is 5-1 over A-Rad on hardcourts, Li Na's her best surface. I am just saying. That being said, I really do not think Li Na will more than a -150 fav A-Rad in the finals. I think you are way off with your -200 prediction, MDF. I think she will be around -140.

I think Li will be more than -140 , Frugal.

The books have already calculated that matchup into the current odds which is why she's still relatively cheap right now at -105. . I think she'll be at least -175 and if she straight sets Bouchard with minimal problems today, closer to -200 or more.


Good Luck

[MagicDiceFlow]

Li Na has been playing well but she can also be fragile and get frustrated specially by someone like Radwanska. With Serena, Sharapova & Azarenka out this is the perfect time for Radwanska to win. Thanks for your comments, I should probably listen to you but have to go with my gut and put a little on Radwanska. Will keep an eye on your other picks and follow as you have been on fire. Keep up the good work.

Li is intimidated by Williams and Azarenka which is why she can get mentally fragile against those two. Against competition that she knows she can dominate, she plays in beast mode and Radwanksa is a great matchup for her.

Thanks for the kind words Leeloo and best of luck on your picks.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Looks like Heritage has just increased it to -120 now.

[Hardcoar]

Was a lot better at +1475 when it began.

[frugalgambler]

Li Na won, but she looked pretty shaky late in the 1st and throughout the 2nd set, to say the least. If she will as shaky against A-Rad, she will probably lose. I am hedging the hell out of my futures bet.

MDF, what are you thinking about Cibulkova-A-Rad ? I think it will be tight, I am leaning A-Rad 2-1.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I got Cibu +4 games against Rad

[MagicDiceFlow]

Well, Li won her match against Bouchard as expected so now for tomorrow's match, we got some good value in a Li bet as a pickem instead of laying heavy chalk.

[Bill_Hicks]

I got Cibu +4 games against Rad

How many units you throw down on this one?

[shari91]

I got Cibu +4 games against Rad

Not sure why most are convinced it'll be Aggie in the final but anyway... I've got Cibu on the ML. Let's get this

[frugalgambler]

Not sure why most are convinced it'll be Aggie in the final but anyway... I've got Cibu on the ML. Let's get this

I think A-Rad will prevail mainly based on her experience. And she is not a good matchup for Cibulkova, I think. Although, Cibulkova has looked scary good at times. I would not be upset if A-Rad loses: the odds for Li-Na to win it all will be -200 or lower then; good for hedging purposes.

[PAYTON20]

Why is the match off the board already?

[MagicDiceFlow]

Not sure why most are convinced it'll be Aggie in the final but anyway... I've got Cibu on the ML. Let's get this

Cibulkova blowing Radwanska off the court right now. She's looking great early on here.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Boooooom .....that's my girl CIBU!

Unless something miraculous happens, she pretty much sealed the deal for us spread bettors with that 6-1 destruction of Rad.

[shari91]

Cibulkova blowing Radwanska off the court right now. She's looking great early on here.

Yeah she's looking awesome so far! Almost scarily too good. Part of me is tempted to put a bit on Aggie now live because I'm wondering if Cibu can keep this level up but I'm going to pretend I'm not watching the match and just ride it out. Normally with a dog at this price I'd take the handicap also but I didn't this time so it's do or die for me. If she manages to win this match though, I think that'll be a scarier prospect for your Li Na future than if Aggie does.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Yeah she's looking awesome so far! Almost scarily too good. Part of me is tempted to put a bit on Aggie now live because I'm wondering if Cibu can keep this level up but I'm going to pretend I'm not watching the match and just ride it out. Normally with a dog at this price I'd take the handicap also but I didn't this time so it's do or die for me. If she manages to win this match though, I think that'll be a scarier prospect for your Li Na future than if Aggie does.

Ride it out ......Cibu is in a zone right now.

[lucasdawg]

MDF whats your call on rinka v berdych

[frugalgambler]

Wow. Let's see what the line will be on the final. From what I saw today, Li Na should actually be the dog. But I hope she will get a -200+ line. A-Rad clearly did not want to play today, but Cibulkova also humiliated Halep and overcame Sharapova. Wow.

[ThaTopMoron]

I will prob fade Li Na

[frugalgambler]

I will prob fade Li Na

And I will probably hedge the hell out of my Li Na futures. Let's hope the line will be set based on rankings and h2h.