Del Potro to win Australian Open @11.00?

[rankslash]

Delpo usually wakes up around February/March... but this year is different. He was impressive last week, especially against Tomic in the final. He deserves a 20 $ bet in my opinion.

[frugalgambler]

As long as you are going small. I would not put too much stock in that win over the Tomic schmuck. I also think if you wait a couple of rounds the odds will not change that much, but I might be wrong.

[rankslash]

As long as you are going small. I would not put too much stock in that win over the Tomic schmuck. I also think if you wait a couple of rounds the odds will not change that much, but I might be wrong.

No bro, they will change a lot! The odds won't change for someone like Djokovic.
For example: If Djokovic is now at 2.20, after Round 3 he will be at 1.90 ... Del Potro is now at 11, after Round 3 he will be at 8.
And as much as i like Juan Martin, i'll never put money on him for another GS if the odds are below 10.
20 $ to win 200 $ sounds decent.

[Hardcoar]

Have you asked yourself the following extremely basic question: Would he win the entire thing more than one out of eleven times?

[MiddleMan]

The heat will be a telling factor on a player like Del Potro. He isn't as fit as Novak and Rafa, and playing in the swelling Melbourne heat, especially if he plays long matches, will take a lot out of him and, as a result, his serve will suffer late in games.

It's funny, actually. I would expect Del Potro and Nadal to both advance through to the Quarters. The Argentine actually has an easier draw than GOAT, but watch fatigue set in if they play in the QF. I would give Del Potro a decent chance to take the first set, but as the game goes on, Nadal will wear him out and get on top. Instead of taking Nadal at $1.20 pre match, I might take him at $1.60 if he does indeed lose the first set.

In summary, there is no way Del Potro is getting past Nadal.

[Hardcoar]

The heat will be a telling factor on a player like Del Potro. He isn't as fit as Novak and Rafa, and playing in the swelling Melbourne heat, especially if he plays long matches, will take a lot out of him and, as a result, his serve will suffer late in games.

It's funny, actually. I would expect Del Potro and Nadal to both advance through to the Quarters. The Argentine actually has an easier draw than GOAT, but watch fatigue set in if they play in the QF. I would give Del Potro a decent chance to take the first set, but as the game goes on, Nadal will wear him out and get on top. Instead of taking Nadal at $1.20 pre match, I might take him at $1.60 if he does indeed lose the first set.

In summary, there is no way Del Potro is getting past Nadal.

I would argue "no way" is a factually incorrect claim, but I agree he isn't the favorite in that match-up.

[rankslash]

The term "no way" is the main reason why bookmakers exist.

[matt1216]

Have you asked yourself the following extremely basic question: Would he win the entire thing more than one out of eleven times?

Yes, he's got a diffrent swagger early on. Change is inevidable.

[Hardcoar]

Yes, he's got a diffrent swagger early on. Change is inevidable.

Cute. Now do the multiplication.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Delpo is not winning this year. This year's open will be about the battle of the fittest and all the big lumbering guys like Delpo/Berdych/Raonic will struggle with the heat in the later rounds.

It will be either Nadal or Djokovic with slight possibility in Wawrinka.

[matt1216]

I'm not sure guys, I think his match vs Tomic was sending a message.

[Hardcoar]

I wasn't joking or being smart (well it is smart, I can't argue with that: Seriously please do the multiplication and find out what you actually think.

[matt1216]

Cute. Now do the multiplication.

Hardcoar.... Obviously he's never won it here, so the math dosnt really matter. Logic just states that Eventually there will be a new champion. Outside of the Top this guy has easily the best chance of winning it.

[Hardcoar]

Your reply is completely irrelevant to the subject at hand as well as my question.Allow me to do it myself in an attempt to explain what the point is:

Suppose all the most likely (hardest-to-beat) opponents advance until they face Del-Potro: Del-Potro will then play the following opponents on his way to the title:

Williams
Bautista-Agut
Paire
Raonic
Nadal
Murray
Djokovic

Then give all of Del-Potro's resulting matches your most realistic (non-void) odds estimate:

Williams @ 1.05
Bautista-Agut @ 1.075
Paire @ 1.15
Raonic @ 1.3
Nadal @ 3
Murray @ 2.25
Djokovic @ 3.5

Then multiply the total odds:

Product = ~36.5

Finally, ask yourself the very same question (considering error-margins and possible upsets of difficult opposition):

Would Del-Potro win one out of eleven 2014 Australian Opens??

[Hardcoar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QL0Xcjis38

[Noleafclover]

Decided to give it a whirl, although it didn't look good to begin with. I got a 4.3% chance of him winning. But I adjusted some that I had less of a sense of from previous odds upward to even reach the 4.3.

.96 rhyne williams
.92 probably bautista agut
.9 (likely paire, from here going forward the guessed odds begin to indicate the possibility of an upset)
.75 raonic
.33 nadal
.55 murray, tsonga, federer
.4 djokovic

Edit: Looks like Hardcoar already illustrated. I think you've got to give a little friendly consideration to the possibility that he DOESN'T face the exact hardest route by upping all the odds slightly (since you don't know where the upset will happen, although you know it likely will), but we still agree he doesn't do it 1 in 11 times.

[Hardcoar]

Decided to give it a whirl, although it didn't look good to begin with. I got a 4.3% chance of him winning. But I adjusted some that I had less of a sense of from previous odds upward to even reach the 4.3.

.96 rhyne williams
.92 probably bautista agut
.9 (likely paire, from here going forward the guessed odds begin to indicate the possibility of an upset)
.75 raonic
.33 nadal
.55 murray, tsonga, federer
.4 djokovic

Edit: Looks like Hardcoar already illustrated. I think you've got to give a little friendly consideration to the possibility that he DOESN'T face the exact hardest route by upping all the odds slightly (since you don't know where the upset will happen, although you know it likely will), but we still agree he doesn't do it 1 in 11 times.

Please see the second to bottom line in my post (not changing the fact that you are correct, merely pointing out that I am on top of things).

I doubt he would be the favorite against Murray, by the way. I will admit this is by far the toughest line to call.

[snufflyjoe]

I actually like wawrinka to win at 41/1 . Jokers in the same half granted but if joker was to be upset Warwinka is a strong contender.
$25 to Win $1000 is worth a punt IMO

[Hardcoar]

I actually like wawrinka to win at 41/1 . Jokers in the same half granted but if joker was to be upset Warwinka is a strong contender.
$25 to Win $1000 is worth a punt IMO

Please see my previous posts ITT.

[Noleafclover]

Please see the second to bottom line in my post (not changing the fact that you are correct, merely pointing out that I am on top of things).

I doubt he would be the favorite against Murray, by the way. I will admit this is by far the toughest line to call.

Yeah, I saw. You just did odds from hardest and then said even if he gets some favorable breaks, prolly still not enough to reduce 36 to 11. I did the other way. And no- but he'd be a mod fav against tsonga, and a small fav against federer, so I kinda averaged. I tried to give the most favorable odds I could and still got 4.3%.

Shame you can't take the other side on this.