Been following SBR for about 6 months now and I thought I would contribute to the picks and discussion for 2014!
Stay tuned for my first picks soon
Stay tuned for my first picks soon
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So here are my rules:
I will bet mainly on the men's game, and on all levels, i.e ATP, Challenger and ITF Matches.
I will bet on the women's game sometimes, mostly just at the top level.
As an Australian, I will be using decimal odds and Australian books, along with Betvictor and pinnacle.
I will be recording my units frequently.
Please feel free to follow and discuss, would love to have some input!Comment -
First play will come from the Hopman Cup.
0.5 units on Pennetta to beat Stosur @ $2.93 (Pinnacle)
Hard to ignore a 4-0 record, especially with Stosur's issues when playing in Australia.Comment -
Welcome! Good start. Hope you'll do well!Comment -
Record:
1-0; +0.97 units (rounded)
0-0 ATP
1-0 WTA
0-0 Challenger
0-0 FuturesComment -
Couple of plays here.
1 unit on Panfil +4.5 games against Tomic @ $1.90 (TAB)
Aussies 0-2 so far, possible lack of motivation (he is questionable on a good day). Panfil obviously big serve, playing with confidence. Tomic likes to guess on return so Panfil should be able to get enough free points to cover.
1 unit on Pospisil 2-0 against Lu @ $2.10 (Bet365)
Due to the news of Lu being injured (thanks to @Bet10Heinekens), this has a bit of value. Hopefully Yen-Hsun plays the match out.Comment -
specially for coaches and trainers
Improve Your Tennis Game with SM(Split Method) exercises, Forehand or Backhand bio-mechanics can improve after maximum 3 lessons in 3 days (not beginners!)Comment -
New week, new play!
Record:
1-1-1; -0.03 units (rounded)
0-1-1 ATP
1-0 WTA
0-0 Challenger
0-0 Futures
2 units on Benneteau to beat Ebden @ $1.76 (Pinnacle)
Benneteau is simply a better player. Defending SF points here. Hard to ignore the odds.Comment -
WTA HOBART
1 unit on Sanders/Peng Over 18.5 games @ $1.93 (Pinnacle)
Good fade spot for a small play on Peng. Played the final in Shenzhen a couple of days ago, so has to be some sort of fatigue factor flying to Hobart. Sanders is a talented junior, watched her play at Aus Open quals last year. Good ball striking ability and is confident. Beat Begu last week and took a set off Hsieh. Also defeated Bouchard last year in Aus.Comment -
ATP Sydney
1 unit on Istomin/Andujar under 21.5 @ $1.80 (Betvictor)
Istomin has never had an issue breaking Pablo's serve before, and has performed well at Sydney in the past (SF in '12, QF in '13). Only broken once against Cilic and should get the job done here.Comment -
ATP Sydney Qualifying
1 unit on Struff/VeselyOver 22.5 games @ $1.83 (Betvictor)
Smelling a 3-setter here. Both will be keen to qualify. 7 of Jiri's last 10 gone the distance, 5 of Struff's too. Couple of decent servers, could clear in two. Small play on the lean.Comment -
A great day yesterday going 3/3! One play still pending, thanks to the rain in Hobart, Peng gets an extra day to get over jet lag which doesn't help
Will look at today's games soon and post my thoughts in the next hour or two.
Record:
4-1-1; +3.12 units (rounded)
3-1-1 ATP
1-0 WTA
0-0 Challenger
0-0 FuturesComment -
Couple of plays to kick off the day!
WTA Hobart
2 units on Riske to beat Dellacqua @ $1.74 (Pinnacle)
Impressive yesterday against Pavs and last week against Ana, has much better hold/break stats than Casey does.
ATP Sydney
1 unit on Mahut to beat Harrison @ $2.05 (Betvictor)
Harrison has struggled in Australia historically, lost to Groth last week (similar game to Mahut but worse). Mahut been fairly impressive so far. Battle of two big servers, like the underdog.Comment -
Another late play
ATP Sydney
1 unit on Matosevic to beat Mayer @ $2.15 (Centrebet)
Marinko looked inspired last week, seems to have improved in offseason, couple of solid wins at a similar price against Querrey and Benneteau. Mayer travelling from Doha after a pretty big week. Mayer also had a poor Australian campaign in 2013 and was poor for the most part on hard. Best win was Ferrer in Shanghai, but everyone was beating Ferrer at the end of the year.Comment -
Hey bro just checking in to give you props - you certainly know your tennis man! Thanks for the winners, and keep up the good work buddy!
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I am very impressed. The Big Fish could be SBR's Nostradamus. Your tips are simply amazing, champ. Welcome on board.Comment -
Thanks for the love Middle and Semper! Very happy with how things have started. Taking today off, going to go watch the Aus Open qualies and see how the courts are playing. Will potentially post some plays based on that later.Comment -
Updated record before the Open begins!
Record:
7-2-1 (+5.8 units)
5-1-1 ATP
2-1-0 WTA
0-0-0 Challenger
0-0-0 FuturesComment -
Alright time to kick things off!
1.5 units on Querrey/Giraldo over 38.5 games @ $1.90 (Betvictor)
Querrey strong serve, poor break rates. Giraldo also has a decent serve too and can win plenty of free points. Querrey not great at finishing things quickly so expect Giraldo to take a set, maybe two.
1 unit on Youzhny/Struff over 37.5 games @ $1.93 (Pinnacle)
Youzhny poor record in Australia, 5 set win over Ebden last year, lost in 5 to Donskoy. Not much practice under his belt. Struff is a good shot maker and can get hot while Youzhny very inconsistent at times. Struff good enough to take a set.
1 unit on Sousa to beat Thiem @ $1.78 (Sportsbet)
Feel like Thiem will struggle both in heat and with length of match. Sousa shown his ability to outlast opponents (ie Dimitrov and Nemo at USO) and will want to at least repeat last year's performance here.
2 units on Anderson/Vesely to play a tiebreak @ $1.61 (Bet365)
Hard to ignore this one. Both strong servers, new balls they're using will help the bigger servers. Not a huge return game for Anderson and Vesely played plenty of TBs already this season.
Will post some more before play begins! Good luck all.Comment -
Some more plays:
1 unit on Hradecka to beat Vekic @ $2.30 (Centrebet)
Think experience wins this one. Ever since her run at Birmingham Vekic has mostly failed to impress. Hradecka gets some wins under her belt at qualies so in a match that is probably a flip, I'll take the dog odds.
1 unit on Kvitova/Kumkhum over 17.5 @ $1.84 (Pinnacle)
Kvitova isn't one to always do things easily, and Kumkhum has a decent power game when she gets going. Kvitova also struggled a lot with breathing in the heat this time last year so that could once again be a factor.
1 unit on Lucic-Baroni +6.0 vs Lisicki @ $1.95 (Centrebet)
Their two meetings so far have been close, particularly last year's on grass, where Lisicki only won one more point. Obviously she is nowhere near as good on hard court. New balls come into play here too and should help Lucic hold easier.Comment -
I tailed your Kumkhum pick cause i thought was going to be a good bet, it seem that we are hitting it
Thank you and keep the good work!!
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Bum Bum Kumkhum!!!Comment -
Good to see that one come through for you!
Overall an alright day going 4/7.
Record:
11-5-1 (+7.51 units)
7-3-1 ATP
4-2-0 WTA
0-0-0 Challenger
0-0-0 FuturesComment -
solid work FisherComment -
A few plays to start things off:
2 units on Barbora Zahlavova Strycova -3.5 vs Hsieh @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Gave her a good 2 and 2 thrashing a few months ago on hard. Hsieh getting done these days pretty easily. Strycova finished off the year well and has made a decent start.
1 unit on Matosevic/Nishikori over 36.5 games @ $1.90 (Pinnacle)
This one should be at least four sets. Can't see Nishikori appreciating the 40+ degrees Celsius heat which will give Marinko a chance. Matosevic improved a lot in off season it seems, played a few tight matches so far with multiple TBs.
1 unit on Klahn +6.5 vs Dimitrov @ $2.07 (Pinnacle)
Still not completely sold on Grigor, particularly in a Slam. Klahn has shown decent serving ability. Think he has a chance of taking a set, or at least getting to a TB.
0.5 units on Yung-Jan Chan to beat McHale @ $3.11 (Sportsbet)
Chan impressed at AO last year, defeated Hantuchova and took a 6-1 set off Ivanovic. Then got injured and didn't play for 8 months. Got a solid win over Shuai Zhang last week and a set off Niculescu. McHale is inconsistent and didn't perform particularly well on hard court outside the States. Decent value I think.Comment -
Thanks Bet10!Comment -
Aarghh i am in the opposite side of your Yug-Jan Chan / McHale bet :P
I like your Zahlavova bet
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Can't agree on everything
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A more plays for today's action!
1 unit on Schiavone +1.5 sets vs Cibulkova @ $2.11 (Pinnacle)
Cibulkova had pretty poor Slams last year, dropped a set to Barty then lost to Savinkyh at AO, lost to Erakovic at FO, dropped set to Camerin at Wimbledon, chopped by Vinci, lost to Svitolina at USO. Schiavone was decent on the flipside, losing to Kvitova in 3 at AO, beating Flipkens and Bartoli at FO, then losing to Lisicki and Serena at Wimby and USO. Despite Schiavone getting worse, she shouldn't be above $2.00 for this market, think she'll appreciate the heat more.
1 unit on Cilic/Granollers over 36.5 games @ $1.92 (Pinnacle)
Can't see Cilic winning this in straights. Granollers will scrap and fight, especially in the heat, and is no stranger to five set matches.
1 unit on Mladenovic/Voegele over 20.5 games @ $1.87 (Pinnacle)
See this one going to three, but could clear in two. Mladenovic played two three-setters so far, both involving a tiebreak, with 5 of 6 sets being 6-4 or more. Voegele played 3 sets against Azarenka, beat Keys 4 and 3. Their one meeting (albeit in 2010), went to three including a TB. Six of Voegele's last eight completed matches have been 3 setters.Comment -
Good luck.Comment -
Tailed a couple of your late plays and hit them. Was hoping to come back and see some more future winners!Comment -
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