Catches of the Day (Daily Tennis Picks)

[thebigfish]

1.5 units on Gulbis/Querrey over 39.5 games @ $1.75 (Betvictor)

Most likely going to 4+ sets, both these two have too much of an inconsistent streak to win in straight sets. Strong servers, high hold rates, should be at least one tiebreak.

1 unit on Roger-Vasselin/Garcia-Lopez over 38.5 games @ $1.85 (Pinnacle)

Can really see a 5 setter happening here. Went to 5 at Wimbledon '12, 10-8 in the fifth, with two 7-6 sets and a 7-5 set also. Played last year in Casablanca for two tiebreaks and a 6-2. Both played some close matches and sets this season.

[MiddleMan]

Loving the form. You remind me of Greg Norman. He was also a big fish.

[thebigfish]

1.5 units on Querrey/Gulbis over 39.5 games @ $1.75 (Pinnacle)

Most likely to be 4+ sets in this one, both players too inconsistent to win this in straights. Good servers, high hold rates, should be at least one tiebreak.

1 unit on Roger-Vasselin/Garcia-Lopez over 38.5 games @ $1.85 (Pinnacle)

Sensing a 5 set marathon here. These two played a marathon at Wimbledon '12, 6-7 6-3 7-6 5-7 10-8 to Guillermo. Also played last year, 6-7 7-6 6-2 also to Guillermo. Both already played close matches and sets this year, chance of clearing in four.

[thebigfish]

1.5 units on Querrey/Gulbis over 39.5 games @ $1.75 (Pinnacle)

Most likely to be 4+ sets in this one, both players too inconsistent to win this in straights. Good servers, high hold rates, should be at least one tiebreak.

1 unit on Roger-Vasselin/Garcia-Lopez over 38.5 games @ $1.85 (Pinnacle)

Sensing a 5 set marathon here. These two played a marathon at Wimbledon '12, 6-7 6-3 7-6 5-7 10-8 to Guillermo. Also played last year, 6-7 7-6 6-2 also to Guillermo. Both already played close matches and sets this year, chance of clearing in four.

Thought these tips didn't post already... weird...

[boss_of_um]

Rode both. Didn't expect Querrey to win in straight sets. Let's make that money tonight!

[thebigfish]

Rode both. Didn't expect Querrey to win in straight sets. Let's make that money tonight!

Yeah Gulbis had his chances, just didn't take them. Ah well, onto the next one!

[Semper Fidelis]

What do you have for tonight big fish? Already on Nishikori -8.5 and Mchale. Eyeing a few other dogs as well, though it seems like most of the favorites will win in the ATP.

[thebigfish]

1 unit on Przysiezny -3.5 games vs Robert @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Przysiezny -1.5 sets vs Robert @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Przysiezny a much more complete player at the respective stages of their career. Robert is losing to players like Maverick Banes, getting chopped by Berrer, Harrison and Ward. Feel like Przysiezny will work in the heat more.

1.5 units on Cilic/Simon over 37.5 games @ $1.90 (Betvictor)

Surprised by this line, would bet more if both of these players aren't likely fatigued. Chance of a chopping if one player gets up by a bit. Nonetheless they both love playing long matches at Grand Slams.

1 unit on Lu +1.5 sets vs Dimitrov @ $1.91 (Luxbet)

Don't think Dimitrov is ready to play long matches in the heat with his fitness level yet. Yen-Hsun is a very competitive player and took Monfils to 5 here last year. Disposed of Wang easily, can see him sticking it out.

[boss_of_um]

Looks solid! Well done.

[thebigfish]

What do you have for tonight big fish? Already on Nishikori -8.5 and Mchale. Eyeing a few other dogs as well, though it seems like most of the favorites will win in the ATP.

Good hit on Nishi!

[thebigfish]

Disappoting day yesterday. Lu and Przysiezny certainly had their chances, but that's tennis! Onto today

Record:
18-11-1(+9.27 units)
12-7-1 ATP
6-4-0 WTA
0-0-0 Challenger
0-0-0 Futures

[thebigfish]

Let's get back to winning today!

1.5 units on Janowicz/Mayer over 39.5 games @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

Gonna be a tiebreak or two here, and at least four sets. These two went to five in 2012 at Wimby. Janowicz played two matches which went overs so far, Mayer one. Pretty straightforward play here.

1 unit on Janowicz to beat Mayer @ $2.65 (TAB)

Hard to ignore these dog odds on Jano. Working himself into the tournament and with such a big serve and close sets, happy to be on the dog.

2 units on Ferrer/Chardy over 38 games @ $1.80 (Centrebet)

Really liking this one. Ferrer hasn't been playing his best tennis this year, some quite close sets. Chardy played 3 TBs last match and played 5 sets against Delpo in this stage last year. Only one of their five matches has been straights, played a 5 setter in their one Slam match.

0.5 units on Chardy to beat Ferrer @ $3.50 (Pinnacle)

Remember Chardy beating Delpo here last year. Ferrer (as above), hasn't played great this season, and hasn't played well since Paris really, or even before that. Played close matches before, think Chardy is up to the task.

[boss_of_um]

Thanks for posting Fish!

[thebigfish]

Thanks for posting Fish!

You're welcome Boss!

[boss_of_um]

I always bet Serena matches to go under so I am on that as well.

[thebigfish]

I always bet Serena matches to go under so I am on that as well.

Best of luck!

[thebigfish]

Few plays from the women's side, really liking the dogs today!

1.5 units on Safarova/Li over 19.5 games @ $1.87 (Centrebet)

Six of seven clashes have gone over this total, with the one that missed a 6-3 6-4 Li win. They've played a TB or 7-5 in 5 of 7 meetings, so if we get one of those today, should see this hit. Safarova seems to be in decent form this year and will be appreciating the faster conditions.

1 unit on Stosur to beat Ivanovic @ $2.29 (Pinnacle)

Think Stosur may finally have gotten confidence on Australian soil back. Positive H2H, 4-3, 2-0 on hard, 1-1 last year. Should be close one so will play on the underdog.

1 unit on Zheng to beat Dellacqua @ $2.40 (TAB)

Can't ignore these odds despite Dellacqua's wins. Zheng simply a more accomplished player, does well here, gotta play the dog.

[MiddleMan]

Good luck, Fish.

I have a $500 free bet on Ferrer/Chardy going to five sets @ $3.70. Judging by your summaries, you must think this is a fair chance of happening. If Chardy wins in five, we will both be laughing.

[thebigfish]

Apologies to all followers for lack of activity, illness combined with needing a break were the contributing factors!

Back with a play for the Djokovic/Wawrinka match

1 unit on Wawrinka to win a set vs Djokovic @ $2.20 (Centrebet)

Wawrinka is turning up big time for Grand Slams these days, can't forget this same match last year, plus their US Open clash. Will catch fire for at least a set.

[thebigfish]

Starting on the Challenger circuit with a couple of plays.

1 unit on Vesely to beat Bemelmans @ $2.04 (Pinnacle)

Was at Vesely's match vs Anderson at AO, really impressed with him, just didn't have the fitness to last the match, but serve is a monster and will love these indoor courts, where other big serving lefties like Michael Berrer have played well in the past. Bemelmans is decent but nowhere near the potential of Vesely, so will take the dog price.

0.5 units on Ungur to beat Copil @ $3.45 (Sportsbet)

2-0 record for Ungur, both on clay admittedly but still helps. Ungur had some decent wins on indoor last year- Stakhovsky, Herbert, Kubot and made final of Challenger WTF 2012 on indoor. Copil had a good indoor year, but will take decent odds here for a small play.

[MiddleMan]

Starting on the Challenger circuit with a couple of plays.

1 unit on Vesely to beat Bemelmans @ $2.04 (Pinnacle)

Was at Vesely's match vs Anderson at AO, really impressed with him, just didn't have the fitness to last the match, but serve is a monster and will love these indoor courts, where other big serving lefties like Michael Berrer have played well in the past. Bemelmans is decent but nowhere near the potential of Vesely, so will take the dog price.

0.5 units on Ungur to beat Copil @ $3.45 (Sportsbet)

2-0 record for Ungur, both on clay admittedly but still helps. Ungur had some decent wins on indoor last year- Stakhovsky, Herbert, Kubot and made final of Challenger WTF 2012 on indoor. Copil had a good indoor year, but will take decent odds here for a small play.

Bang!

How good is this guy?

[Rococo]

Starting on the Challenger circuit with a couple of plays.

1 unit on Vesely to beat Bemelmans @ $2.04 (Pinnacle)

Was at Vesely's match vs Anderson at AO, really impressed with him, just didn't have the fitness to last the match, but serve is a monster and will love these indoor courts, where other big serving lefties like Michael Berrer have played well in the past. Bemelmans is decent but nowhere near the potential of Vesely, so will take the dog price.

0.5 units on Ungur to beat Copil @ $3.45 (Sportsbet)

2-0 record for Ungur, both on clay admittedly but still helps. Ungur had some decent wins on indoor last year- Stakhovsky, Herbert, Kubot and made final of Challenger WTF 2012 on indoor. Copil had a good indoor year, but will take decent odds here for a small play.

had the first one as well! But sadly copil at the second one.... Should have done my research better, like you apparantly did, good job!

[thebigfish]

Here we are again! Couple of plays.

1 unit on Meusburger to beat Friedsam @ $1.81 (Pinnacle)

2-0 record, once on indoor, both last year. Friedsam qualified but wasn't great at holding serve. Meusberger decent AO, better player at the moment.

0.5 units on Sakamoto to beat Aubone @ $3.40 (Bet365)

Hitting the Futures tournaments in the US for this play. Seem to be playing similar standard opponents, and nothing in Aubone's form (or Sakamoto's) suggest the Brazilian should be this big of a dog.

[Semper Fidelis]

Hey there bigfish, nice going once again! Just wanted to get your thoughts on Sakamoto. How confident are you that he wins? The reason I'm asking is I'm looking for a decent dog to finish off the last leg of a nice little parlay, and was unsure between him or Jovanovski. Which one has a better chance of hitting? Perhaps I should just play it safe and take Suarez Navarro...

[ohdecas]

Thank you for the Meusburger pick Second time I tail you... 2W 0L

[Spinny]

Also tailed you, thanks for Meusburger pick

[thebigfish]

Jumping down to the Futures circuit tonight! Heading to Turkey F1

1 unit on Marti/Durmus under 16.5 games @ $1.66 (Bet365)Anyone who looks at Durmus' results knows he is an absolute spud. Should be bageled at least once here. Looking for a whitewash with Marti a decent Futures player.

[ohdecas]

You are my lucky charm 3W 0L

thank you, kiss kiss

[thebigfish]

Record:
25-17-1 (+11.21 units)
13-11-1 ATP
8-6-0 WTA
2-0-0 Challenger
2-0-0 Futures

Should be posting some outrights for this week, plus hopefully a few plays! Stay tuned in the next hour or two

[thebigfish]

Here are some outrights for this week:

Montpellier
1 unit on Gasquet @ $3.50 (Sportsbet)

Defending champ, decent enough draw. Can't see Benneteau/Davydenko being too much of an issue. Janowicz could easily bomb out of the semis, Richard should still win that anyway.

Zagreb
1 unit on Youzhny @ $6.00 (Bet365)
1 unit on Cilic @ $4.00 (Bet365)

See these two meeting in the semi of the bottom half. Cilic has simple draw until QF, tough against Brands/Ivo/Dodig but will be favourite and back him. Youzhny has a simple quarter: Bye; Pavic/Qualifier; Struff/Lacko/Sela/Rosol.

[roger nadal]

i think olivetti today at (1.50) in Montpellier is a good pick!!

[thebigfish]

Ok looking forward to some good plays tonight!

0.5 unit on Przysiezny to beat Roger-Vasselin @ $3.41 (Pinnacle)

Przysiezny very good on indoor last year. Hasn't had a great start to year but got a couple of matches under belt indoors at DC. ERV inconsistent and I feel uncomfortable with him as such a short favourite against such a strong server on his day. Find H2H is reduntant as Przysiezny was ranked outside top 250 both times they played a completed match.

1 unit on Przysiezny/Roger-Vasselin over 21.5 game @ $1.83 (Centrebet)

Playing the over here with two strong servers. As above, don't expect Roger-Vasselin to be on top of his game the whole match, seeing a 3 setter, or at least 2 close ones.

Might post some more later.

[Noleafclover]

Good hit on the over, tailed.

[thebigfish]

Thanks Clover!

[thebigfish]

Hard to ignore these odds

2 units on Groth to beat Puetz @ $1.79 (Sportsbet)

Groth is outclassed at ATP level but has the game to beat on Challenger/Futures level players pretty easily.