Putting another 2 units on Verdasco

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-09, 10:10 AM

Just like Roddick was gonna roll last night?

You should stick to your one unit play on him. It's worth a shot, but loading up on him in my opinion is not. I say it again. Nadal has gotten less "pub" as the #1 seed than most any men's player I can remember in a recent Grand Slam. Murray & Djokovic getting ousted got more pub than Nadal rolling. Federer's comeback and subsequent dismantling of Del Potro & Roddick has gotten a lot of pub. But Nadal? Maybe because he's played a lot of the evening matches in Melbourne that air in the middle of the night, he doesn't get as much. But it sure seems to me that he's been under the radar, which is weird to say for a #1 seed.

Guy hasn't dropped a set yet and for all the "worst surface" talk, I think that lights a fire under him. Sure, Verdasco has nothing to lose. Sure, Nadal is still fighting to get to that first hard court Grand Slam final, nevermind title. But, I think people have really not noticed how well Nadal is playing on this surface. The big difference for me is that Nadal is not giving his opponents many break chances & he does capitalize on his opponents. Verdasco has been giving more break chances in the last two rounds (26), but hasn't found someone who can capitalize. Rafa will. If Verdasco offers up double digit break opps, he has little chance to advance. I like Nadal in 4 and have a play on the over here for total games at 34.5, because I would be surprised to see this go in straights.

**single shaker** · 01-29-09, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Just like Roddick was gonna roll last night?

You should stick to your one unit play on him. It's worth a shot, but loading up on him in my opinion is not. I say it again. Nadal has gotten less "pub" as the #1 seed than most any men's player I can remember in a recent Grand Slam. Murray & Djokovic getting ousted got more pub than Nadal rolling. Federer's comeback and subsequent dismantling of Del Potro & Roddick has gotten a lot of pub. But Nadal? Maybe because he's played a lot of the evening matches in Melbourne that air in the middle of the night, he doesn't get as much. But it sure seems to me that he's been under the radar, which is weird to say for a #1 seed.

Guy hasn't dropped a set yet and for all the "worst surface" talk, I think that lights a fire under him. Sure, Verdasco has nothing to lose. Sure, Nadal is still fighting to get to that first hard court Grand Slam final, nevermind title. But, I think people have really not noticed how well Nadal is playing on this surface. The big difference for me is that Nadal is not giving his opponents many break chances & he does capitalize on his opponents. Verdasco has been giving more break chances in the last two rounds (26), but hasn't found someone who can capitalize. Rafa will. If Verdasco offers up double digit break opps, he has little chance to advance. I like Nadal in 4 and have a play on the over here for total games at 34.5, because I would be surprised to see this go in straights.

completely agree with your analysis Eagle, i've been considering over 34.5 as the only value bet. nadal might lose anything can happen but i would not put a lot on Verdasco in the grand slam against the player he has never beaten before, champions rise for the occasion like this one. i am not making the same mistake like i did yesterday betting against Serena.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-29-09, 02:23 PM

Main odds look about right to me, but can't see Verdasco winning if it goes the full 5 sets. You can get +1000 on combined 3-1 and 3-0, which is probably where I'll be looking.

A major interesting part of the match for me will be whether Nadal will consistently go crosscourt with his forehand, his standard fare - with the topspin those will rear up nicely into Verdasco's hitting zone. There's no other lefty on tour who can hit thunderbolt forehands from up there, and if Nadal doesn't adapt there's the real potential for damage.

**meganie** · 01-29-09, 04:02 PM

With you Lou, but only small.

**Tchocky** · 01-29-09, 06:17 PM

Verdasco has a chance at upsetting Nadal but I think Rafa will pull through:

1. Verdasco +6.5 games
2. Over 34.5 games

**Stacocakes** · 01-29-09, 07:32 PM

Verdasco is not the play here. Same reason why I told everyone that dementieva was not the play yesterday. There is a fine line between the elite players in tennis and everyone else. The difference, how they handle pressure. Verdasco hasn't been this far in a slam before.He is happy just to be at this point.Considers it a great accomplishment to get to here.

Verdasco is the same as dementieva. He is known throughtout the gambling community as a player that chokes when the pressure is greatest. Sure you can say that "So and so won this one tournament. They can handle pressure". Same argument I heard from a poster yesterday when I said serena was going to beat dementieva because serena knows how to play when it matters and dementieva doesn't. Sure Verdasco can get lucky and play over his head and beat nadal but how often will that realistically happen?Hardly ever. Reason is that to beat a player like Nadal, you must play at your very best and keep up that play for a whole best of five match. Next to impossible to do. If you are playing a three set match, a player will sometimes come out flat and the underdog can grab a couple sets and win the match.In a best of five, you often see the underdog get out to a one or two set lead and then completely bottle it and lose in four or five sets.Thats because the elite player has upped his level and the underdog player couldn't keep up his high level of play for the whole match.

Verdasco might grab a set off Nadal but he won't win.

**xxxvince** · 01-30-09, 12:45 AM

nadal vs federer in final.. and i might bet on nadal on final game

**baseballstud** · 01-30-09, 01:37 AM

what does +6.5 games mean again?

is each time a person wins a game. and the goal is to get to 6 games for each set? I know a dumb question, just curious.

**dlw902** · 01-30-09, 02:39 AM

there must be less than a 7 game differential between games in the match.. for instance.. if the final was :

6-4, 6-4, 7-5.. then it's a 6 game differential in favor of Nadal so it would cover the +6.5. If it was 6-2, 7-6, 7-5.. then that's a 7 game differential, therefore, you lose.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-30-09, 04:20 AM

Good start for Forehando, winning just over half the rallies, serving 75% FS so far. Missed his breakpoint chance though.

Nadal is trying to break down his backhand, with mixed success. A couple of times the topspin has resulted in Verdasco misjudging and hitting his reply long, but mostly it's been solid.

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:29 AM

Something doesn't seem right about this match. I'm hoping Nadal can break here so I can offset my Nadal bet with live-betting. Just feeling really weird about this match right now

**dlw902** · 01-30-09, 04:32 AM

where do you do live betting at? I joined matchbook where I could do live betting but i was told that they don't have it for this tennis mathc.

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:33 AM

Pinnacle has live betting for the matches. Betfair also does
Bet 365

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-30-09, 04:36 AM

First set is key. If Forehando wins it, he'll loosen up - he's making a lot of errors at the moment, which is keeping Nadal in it.

If Nadal wins it, probably match over.

**dlw902** · 01-30-09, 04:36 AM

ohh ok, I"m in the US so I can't have pinnacle. I think it's just that I don't know how to use matchbook lol. I think Verdasco missing the easy break point that he hit long may be the difference in this set... can't miss shots like that against Nadal.

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:37 AM

Something is not right with Nadal. Don't usually see him shank this much

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:38 AM

Odds for Nadal have gone from -600 prematch to -340 currently.....

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:40 AM

0-30 **** me
This is not good

**dlw902** · 01-30-09, 04:40 AM

Verdasco has a chance to win this set here.. 0-30 right now...

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-30-09, 04:41 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Something is not right with Nadal. Don't usually see him shank this much

Only 4 errors - Verdasco has 15 :-)

**dlw902** · 01-30-09, 04:42 AM

Verdasco making way too many errors when he has a chance to break.. if he loses this set, I don't like his cahcnes to win.

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:43 AM

Just used to seeing nadal control so many rallies and always keep the ball in play.Hes having alot of trouble with the spin on verdascos serve

Who do you have heehaww?

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-30-09, 04:45 AM

Yeah, Verdasco's serve has been amazing all tournament.

I'm on Forehando to win 3-0 and 3-1, total about +1000 (basically didn't see him having any chance in 5 given Nadal's fitness and mental strength).

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:46 AM

How about give nadal the first set so I can offset my bet and then verdasco wins three straight so you can hit one of yours.Win win for both of us

**dlw902** · 01-30-09, 04:47 AM

this is a big service game for Verdasco, can't lose this one.

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:49 AM

thank god the hawkeye guy has nadal

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:50 AM

bp take it rafa

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:51 AM

great serve to save it

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:53 AM

wow this is definately not good.Odds are plummeting

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-30-09, 04:54 AM

Very impressive mental strength from Verdasco that service game. He's 15-15 and wrongly challenges to lose the point, then takes the big pressure point with a winner. At 30-30 he errors badly, then hits a great winner to equalise. At deuce he goes long, then wins the next point. Old Verdasco would have lost that service game, should do his confidence a lot of good.

18 errors so far for Verdasco, he's very, very nervous and giving away a huge number of points, yet still it's dead level. If he loosens up he's going to run away with it.

On the other hand, lose the set here, I don't fancy his chances winning from a set down.

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:56 AM

I agree.Verdasco needs this set if he wants to win the match

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:57 AM

Can't believe this is the same verdasco that has bagged so many matches and cost me tons of money in the past.Where the **** was this all those years

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 04:59 AM

Yay tiebreaks.Time to take another year off my life

**Stacocakes** · 01-30-09, 05:00 AM

1-0 verdasco.I think he will win this tiebreak.I have just had the worst feeling all match.Just feeling nautious almost