FOGNINI +110 will beat Almagro tomorrow........analysis and here's why:

kenz · 07-20-13, 07:02 AM

Tomorrow Fognini will beat Federer

Congratulations to everyone who trusted Fognini like me. I have 3 wons, set handicap, ML and over

horja1 · 07-20-13, 07:02 AM

Fognini

Semper Fidelis · 07-20-13, 07:03 AM

Good call once again MDF. I already had a little on the Italian last night after watching his incredible showing against Haas, and I put a little extra change on him this morning once I saw you had him as well as the line change in our favor.

DoggyStyle · 07-20-13, 07:04 AM

Congrats all Fognini backers

matt1216 · 07-20-13, 07:06 AM

The way Fognini was playing u would have to be stupid to put money on almagro at that price

MagicDiceFlow · 07-20-13, 07:08 AM

Hardcoar · 07-20-13, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by kenz

Agreed

Almagro is very impatient on all courts and tournaments lately

He gets bored from long rallies and matches.

He had a tough time against Monacoı beacuse of this and he lost to Robredo on RG when Robredo was @30 on live bet because of long rallies which ended with Almagro's mistakes. He also lost to Verdasco at Bastad because the game was so long. He got bored against Melzer in Monte Carlo too.

He is a very mental guy. I am sure Fognini can see this better than us.

It is so easy to touch Almagro's nerves

The odds were @ 300, not @ 30.

Also, there is no such thing as a "due factor" increasing the probability of an outcome occurring. I assure you – trust me. You're completely right in saying it's "mental", because it's an exclusively psychological phenomenon the bookmakers thrive on to cause people like you to give them money making unrealistic assessments of value.

Frugalgambler is so spot on reality in most of his posts ITT. Particularly the following:

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Dude, Fognini is not known for his mental toughness, he can be a mental Mary too. What I see is a few folks in these threads who are trying to convince themselves that this is a sure thing, while I am saying that this is not a sure thing by any thread of imagination. Almagro might very well decide, "hey I can win this tourney" and plays a good clay-court tennis which is well within his capabilities. In that case he is a favorite.

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Federer - Youzhny 16-0. By now, Youzhny should be pissing his pants every time he sees a picture of Roger. And there is no such thing as "due" factor.

Oh, and also: 'Grat's Pirate backers!

theballsflop · 07-20-13, 07:14 AM

Ship it holla balla

MagicDiceFlow · 07-20-13, 07:19 AM

Fognini continues his incredible mow down of top players. Books were way off on this one , Fognini should have been -150 or higher , clearly the more dominant player. We got him at a great price today.

Congrats fellas!!

kenz · 07-20-13, 07:23 AM

Tomorrow dont care about price, I am on Fognini set handicap and ML too.

kenz · 07-20-13, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

The odds were @ 300, not @ 30.

Also, there is no such thing as a "due factor" increasing the probability of an outcome occurring. I assure you – trust me. You're completely right in saying it's "mental", because it's an exclusively psychological phenomenon the bookmakers thrive on to cause people like you to give them money making unrealistic assessments of value.

Frugalgambler is so spot on reality in most of his posts ITT. Particularly the following:

Oh, and also: 'Grat's Pirate backers!

Youzhny is not so horrible to lose Federer every single time they play. Verdasco beat Nadal after 13-14 times. By "due" factor I just say if they make 100 matches, it is more likely for Youzhny to find Federer in bad day and win 1 game

Dont agree with everything you write, but thanks for taking time and replying

ParlayininHTown · 07-20-13, 08:11 AM

Good work, MDF. I just saw this thread now, but I didn't need to be told about Fognini at this point. The two beatdowns of Haas in Germany were awfully convincing. When I saw Fognini at +130 last night right before I went to bed I thought, "I better hop on this NOW before I wake up and it's evens at best."

Now, I just need two games in the second set from whomever drops the first set of the Federer/Delbonis match, and I'll be joining you and Fognini at Sizzler tonight.

theballsflop · 07-20-13, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by theballsflop

I like Foggy. And I like Delbs +1.5 as well.

Excellent value today. Ship itttt

MagicDiceFlow · 07-20-13, 08:20 AM

Originally posted by ParlayininHTown

Good work, MDF. I just saw this thread now, but I didn't need to be told about Fognini at this point. The two beatdowns of Haas in Germany were awfully convincing. When I saw Fognini at +130 last night right before I went to bed I thought, "I better hop on this NOW before I wake up and it's evens at best."

Now, I just need two games in the second set from whomever drops the first set of the Federer/Delbonis match, and I'll be joining you and Fognini at Sizzler tonight.

See you at Sizzler then cus Federer is definitely going to score two games this set.

Hardcoar · 07-20-13, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by theballsflop

Excellent value today. Ship itttt

Excellent winners at least. I don't know about the value...

theballsflop · 07-20-13, 09:22 AM

Originally Posted by theballsflop
I know its a bit premature, but what a matchup it'll be to see Fognini vs Delbonis. Both playing phenomenal tennis atm, assuming it does happens, anyone wanna offer their handicaps on this matchup?

Originally posted by matt1216

Lol, roger isnt losing

So............. handicaps anyone?

Hardcoar · 07-20-13, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by kenz

Youzhny is not so horrible to lose Federer every single time they play. Verdasco beat Nadal after 13-14 times. By "due" factor I just say if they make 100 matches, it is more likely for Youzhny to find Federer in bad day and win 1 game

Dont agree with everything you write, but thanks for taking time and replying

That's not the same thing though. What you're describing above is Youzhny's chances of having won one match against Federer increases the more times the play because he'll have more chances – which is completely true. This is not what is known as the logical illusion referred to as "the due factor".

His chance of winning each individual match, however, does not increase with the number of matches played. In fact one could argue it's the exact opposite due to the massive H2H in favor of Federer. The illusion that this were the case is the phenomenon known as "the due factor".

matt1216 · 07-20-13, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by theballsflop

Originally Posted by theballsflop
I know its a bit premature, but what a matchup it'll be to see Fognini vs Delbonis. Both playing phenomenal tennis atm, assuming it does happens, anyone wanna offer their handicaps on this matchup?

So............. handicaps anyone?

My bad lol .

delbonis +150. Ill have to take fognini tho. I remember a janowicz run. I think mentally delbonis must be running low on fuel. Alot of pressure situations for him. Fognini has never won a ATP 500, hes due

Hardcoar · 07-20-13, 09:42 AM

Ah yes. The good ol' "due factor"...

matt1216 · 07-20-13, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Ah yes. The good ol' "due factor"...

The due factor and system theory i tried brought be from 120$ up to just under 2000$ last 4 days Foggs isnt losing this

Hardcoar · 07-20-13, 10:15 AM

System theory might be a good bet but your illusion of being due will only cost you dearly in the long run.

matt1216 · 07-20-13, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

System theory might be a good bet but your illusion of being due will only cost you dearly in the long run.

Nahhh dude u will see. Fognini will win in straigh sets tomorrow 6-4 6-3 something like that. I dont always just go by hes "due" i was just really saying yhat for this paticular instance. Its Fogninis time. Delbonis beat Federer, people will know who he is now. Mentally he must be running on fumes. Fognini has acted like this has been a cake walk. This is that pound Fognini instance ive been talking about. The under will happen to

FightinsFan · 07-20-13, 11:35 AM

Great call on Fognini Magic Dice..tailed u but took added cushion of +2.5 games @-145 on 5D & made some nice early AM cash. Very happy I woke up suddenly around 5AM today.

Hardcoar · 07-20-13, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Nahhh dude u will see. Fognini will win in straigh sets tomorrow 6-4 6-3 something like that. I dont always just go by hes "due" i was just really saying yhat for this paticular instance. Its Fogninis time. Delbonis beat Federer, people will know who he is now. Mentally he must be running on fumes. Fognini has acted like this has been a cake walk. This is that pound Fognini instance ive been talking about. The under will happen to

If that even occurs (which is the more likely scenario obviously) what will I see? I will see that Fognini won this one match. If you seriously think that proves he won simply because "he was due" you must be criminally insane.

It certainly won't disprove thinking "the due factor" exists punishes you in the long run because this is a single f*cking match!!!

It is mental indeed, but rest assured it's all in your mind alone. No one actually knows what tomorrow will bring.

matt1216 · 07-20-13, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

If that even occurs (which is the more likely scenario obviously) what will I see? I will see that Fognini won this one match. If you seriously think that proves he won simply because "he was due" you must be criminally insane.

It certainly won't disprove thinking "the due factor" exists punishes you in the long run because this is a single f*cking match!!!

It is mental indeed, but rest assured it's all in your mind alone. No one actually knows what tomorrow will bring.

Lol, if thats the case put yur money on delbonis. I said earlier books are baiting people on the delbonis line.

Hardcoar · 07-20-13, 02:51 PM

Why would I put my money on Delbonis if that's the case?

The only reason I would ever put money on Delbonis is if I think his odds hold value. That has nothing to do with my previous post. I can tell you for a fact though there is no way anyone can know who will win tomorrow. One can guess and be either correct or incorrect though. In case you missed it that was essentially my point above...

frugalgambler · 07-20-13, 03:42 PM

Watched both matches today. Delbonis opened at +215. I like it enough to put 0.5u on it, and I probably also will put a unit on "not Fognini 2-0". Delbonis played great today and Feds really really tried to win. Delbonis gets a lot of "free" points with his serve, while Fognini's service games are almost always an adventure.

Noleafclover · 07-20-13, 03:42 PM

He may be due in the sense that he's mentally ready for it having just won another tournament, and feel like its his time, he may be due cause he wants it and is willing to work for it... he isn't due because of having failed in the past is what Hardcoar is saying.

It's as simple as flipping a coin 4 times - from the outside, I have some reasonable expectation of 2 heads/2 tails. But after 2 heads, I'd be a fool to now predict two tails as the most likely outcome.

frugalgambler · 07-20-13, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Watched both matches today. Delbonis opened at +215. I like it enough to put 0.5u on it, and I probably also will put a unit on "not Fognini 2-0". Delbonis played great today and Feds really really tried to win. Delbonis gets a lot of "free" points with his serve, while Fognini's service games are almost always an adventure.

Also, the Tennis channel was showing Feds - Delbonis match so will probably also show the final tomorrow.