Indian Wells Picks (+ Santiago and Kyoto)

Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 03:11 PM

3-parlay

De Bakker -195 (Minar) win
Meffert -675 (Takeuchi) win
Gojowczyk -1500 (Niki) win

1.22/1.04

-1.60 + 1.04 = -.56 units

Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 03:45 PM

Bouchard +120 (Svitolina): 1.00/1.20 loss
Min -155 (Kristina Pliskova): 1.55/1.00 win
Torro-Flor +110 (Panova): 1.00/1.10 win
Cepelova +120 (Burdette): 1.00/1.20 loss
Cohen +200 (Czink): 1.00/2.00 loss
Biernova +190 (Daniilidou) 1.00/1.90 loss
Puig -280 (Crawford) 2.80/1.00 win

-.56 + -.90 = -1.46 units

postp. will be counted when played: [Puchkova -180 (Karolina Pliskova) 1.80/1.00]

Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 04:44 PM

Can anyone explain how the post editing works, or point me to a thread? I correct the spacing but it does not appear.

PROBLEM SOLVED

Hardcoar · 03-04-13, 04:52 PM

Edit: Nope! All you should need to do is click "edit" on your own post of choice, rewrite things however you wish, and click "save changes".

What change in particular are you referring to?

Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Edit: Nope! All you should need to do is click "edit" on your own post of choice, rewrite things however you wish, and click "save changes".What change in particular are you referring to?

The first 3-4 times I edited posts it worked fine. After that, it messed up the spacing, and will not acknowledge hard returns, it seems.

Hardcoar · 03-04-13, 05:05 PM

Hard return means "new line/row", doesn't it? Or paragraph, even...

Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Hard return means "new line/row", doesn't it? Or paragraph, even...

yes. i didnt mean my stuff all jammed together, it was line-spaced when i started. now when i edit the line breaks dont appear so i used .... I'm familiar with these vB forum, so not sure what's going on.

Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 05:13 PM

......................

Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 05:17 PM

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Michael_Flieger · 03-04-13, 06:38 PM

Marino +145 (Karatantcheva): 1.00/1.45 loss

-1.46 + -1.00 = -2.46 units

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 12:06 AM

Saville +170 (Chiudinelli): 1.00/1.70 loss
Millman -350 (Matsui): 3.50/1.00 win

-2.46 units

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 02:53 AM

WBC Brazil-China 8 under -125: 1.25/1.00 win

-2.46 +1 = -1.46 units

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 03:25 AM

Burnett -115 (Dellacqua): 1.15/1.00 loss
Larcher De Brito +110 (Rodionova): 1.00/1.10 win
Tomljanovic +130 (Svitolina): 1.00/1.30 loss
Torro-Flor -150 (Gacon): 1.50/1.00 loss
Candela +105 (Min): 1.00/1.05 loss
Tsurenko -210 (Bratchikova): 2.10/1.00 win
Puchkova -180 vs (Karolina Pliskova): 1.80/1.00 win

-1.46 + -1.55 = -3.01 units

Hardcoar · 03-05-13, 05:05 AM

Tell me please, what made you think there was value in Birnerova?

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 06:23 AM

WBC Korea -105 (Taipei): 1.05/100 win

-3.01 + 1.00 = -2.01 units

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 06:27 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Tell me please, what made you think there was value in Birnerova?

The number and her opponent. +200 for anyone to beat Daniilidou - I'll take that most times.

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 06:39 AM

Should say, since I'm new here - I've read this forum in years past but never posted. I do tennis mostly, so I'll post in here almost exclusively. If I have other picks, as with the World Baseball Classic tonight, I will post them in my tennis threads. I welcome any questions or discussion. Not here to make friends or enemies, just to discuss tennis and try to learn more than I know.

Hardcoar · 03-05-13, 07:03 AM

It's just that Danii has been rather good lately, while Birnerova seems to be the opposite case, looking at her history.

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 07:53 AM

Neither of them are any good. Look at the result - Danii nipped it at the end. I think it could have gone either way, and that means I had the right side, though it lost. That's how I look at it, anyway. If you bet three of this type and cash one, you're even. Anything more than that, big money. And sometimes you lose all three. But you can't play weak favs like Danii at that high a price or you'll be in the hole forever. Again, my opinion, based on experience, though, if you're going to pay that high a price, over 200, there are many better options than Danii in that particular match.

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 08:11 AM

Lucic-Baroni +165 (Voegele): 1.00/1.65 win
Muguruza -335 (Koehler): 10.05/3.00 win

-2.01 + 4.65 = +2.64 units

Hardcoar · 03-05-13, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by Michael_Flieger

Neither of them are any good. Look at the result - Danii nipped it at the end. I think it could have gone either way, and that means I had the right side, though it lost. That's how I look at it, anyway. If you bet three of this type and cash one, you're even. Anything more than that, big money. And sometimes you lose all three. But you can't play weak favs like Danii at that high a price or you'll be in the hole forever. Again, my opinion, based on experience, though, if you're going to pay that high a price, over 200, there are many better options than Danii in that particular match.

I really need to have this in my signature by now, but:

The incidental outcome of a particular match does little to determine the value of the odds. It's impossible to draw decisive conclusions based on one instance.

I agree it could have gone either way, but being on the "right" side depends on whether "right" means "winning" or "value". A winning bet is vastly different from a winning bet, by definition.

I agree with the rest of your claim, but if I were forced to make a bet in that match up, it would have been on Daniilidoooooooooou @ 1.3 or higher. I still don't see how you could think there was enough value in Birnerova odds to justify a bet. Daniilidou isn't that bad at all, in my opinion. Then again perhaps you think she really is that bad, lol...

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

I really need to have this in my signature by now, but:

The incidental outcome of a particular match does little to determine the value of the odds. It's impossible to draw decisive conclusions based on one instance.

That's both true and false. We're betting on individual matches, not a series. If Danii an Birn were playing ten matches in a row, +200 on Birn would surely be the right side. But they're only playing once. If our goal is to make money, all that matters in this instance is whether we win or lose in our bet.

But my point is what you're saying: although these matches are unique, they are also very much alike. They fall into the class: inferior players where one side is heavily favored. I have learned through experience, just take the dog and don't worry about it, you'll end up ahead in the end. That wasn't born out yesterday, but more often than not it is.

And again, I'm not betting hugely on this or any of those matches. You save your heavy hitting, especially on favs, where you have strong, specific reasons to think the side you're on will win. And you expect to be right. And you have to be, or you go backward. With Birn in that situation, I'm just playing the odds. With, say, Mugu today, I fully expect her to win. That's why it's a heavy play, the first one I've posted here. As I write, she's up a set, so it looks good. But that's how I look at it: Mugu -300 over Koehler is 100x as attractive to me as Danii -200 over pretty much anybody.

I agree it could have gone either way, but being on the "right" side depends on whether "right" means "winning" or "value". A winning bet is vastly different from a winning bet, by definition.

Superficially the bottom line is whether you win a particular bet. The deeper level, though, is that you often lose when you're right and win when you're wrong. That's just ordinary variation. I assert but can't prove that Birner +190 was the right side. I just know it is based on experience.

I agree with the rest of your claim, but if I were forced to make a bet in that match up, it would have been on Daniilidoooooooooou @ 1.3 or higher. I still don't see how you could think there was enough value in Birnerova odds to justify a bet. Daniilidou isn't that bad at all, in my opinion. Then again perhaps you think she really is that bad, lol...

Yes, exactly. The truth is, I am familiar with Danii but not with Birnerova at all. As I said, my bet was purely against Danii, and I would play it for pretty much anybody where Danii is favored at that price. I play these small/big dogs for a small amount, and find I win, while looking for the plays I can really pound. Yesterday, both the 200 dogs cohen and birner went bad at the very end of the third set. So we could say they were very competitive, even though they lost. To me, that means I had the right side, they just didn't happen to come through this particular day.

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 02:32 PM

Petkovic -250 (Puig): 5.00/2.00 loss

-2.64 + -5.00 = -2.36 units

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 02:37 PM

4-parlay

Ram +115 (Odesnik) loss
Devvarman -290 (Viola)
Ignatik +135 (Bachinger)
De Voest +195 (Darcis)

.53/10.09

-2.36 + -.53 = -2.89 units

Hardcoar · 03-05-13, 03:45 PM

Not sure about ignatik.

Liking Ram.

Edit: Actually, he's playing Bachinger, not Brands.

Huge difference!

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Not sure about ignatik.

Liking Ram.

Just playing dogs for the odds, like the women.

Edit: Actually, he's playing Bachinger, not Brands.

Huge difference!

Corrected, thanks. Bachinger, Brands, Berrer - I pretty much only go against them, they're all weak minded. Like what I saw from Ignatik last tournament, worth a small shot.

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 04:01 PM

Ram +115 (Odesnik): 1.00/1.15 loss
Zverev +195 (Roger-Vasselin): 1.00/1.95 win
Ignatik +135 (Bachinger): 1.00/1.35 win
Sousa +170 (Munoz-De La Nava): 1.00/1.70 loss
Sergeyev +534 (Brands): 1.00/5.34 loss
Czink +165 (Burdette): 1.00/1.65 loss

-2.89 + -.65 = -3.54 units

Hardcoar · 03-05-13, 04:11 PM

Doesn't work as well with the men, from my experience.

I was going to bet against kitchen sink, but come the fk on these odds movements are ridiculous rofl.

Honestly thought I feel you need to pick your dogs more carefully. For example I'd stay the FK awawy from Zverev, Ignatik and Segeyev. Did you actually see Ignatik play recently? In that case I should STFU on that one.

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Doesn't work as well with the men, from my experience.

Somewhat less well I would say, but still works ok.

I was going to bet against kitchen sink, but come the fk on these odds movements are ridiculous rofl.

I'm not sure what you mean. Two mediocre players, I'll take the +165.

Honestly thought I feel you need to pick your dogs more carefully. For example I'd stay the FK awawy from Zverev, Ignatik and Segeyev. Did you actually see Ignatik play recently? In that case I should STFU on that one.

I saw Ign play a little for the first time in Cherbourg, I think it was. I thought he looked ok. There is no great thought in these picks, unlike when I go big on favs, or on dogs later in tournament. My thinking is: R-V and Munoz went deep last week, maybe their heart isn't in it here. If either one loses, I make money. Ram is a tossup and I'm getting odds on. Ignatik, seems to me he might be strong minded, I see that, again, as a 50-50 so I'll take odds on. Sergeyev I really dont know anything about, but what I do know is Brands sucks mentally and can lose to anyone anytime. As for Czink-Burdette, again, that's a 50-50 so I'll take the +165.

The way I do it, I don't need a great reason to bet on any of these dogs, just the rough feeling the match will be competitive. I'm betting the line.

I'll chase results too. Sort of a pseudo-progressive approach. I saw Voegele play at Memphis and was not impressed. I won going against her today, but it was about the third time, and the earlier two I lost (before I started posting here). I will chase a result just a little bit but not true progressive, just something I'm pretty sure will kick in if I keep after it.

Hardcoar · 03-05-13, 05:09 PM

I mean I wanted to bet on Burdette, but expected odds at about evens. These odds are fking insane.

Hardcoar · 03-05-13, 06:50 PM

You know I'm actually gonna try Sousa and De Voest as I rather like them, but there's no way in hell I'm betting Ignatik or Sergeyev @ these odds. Good luck with those two though!

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 09:58 PM

Barton -220 (Uchiyama): 4.40/2.00 win
Przysiezny -210 (Bhambri) 2.10/1.00 win
Meffert -250 (Arnaboldi) 10.00/4.00 win

-3.54 units +7.00 = +3.46 units

Michael_Flieger · 03-05-13, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

You know I'm actually gonna try Sousa and De Voest as I rather like them, but there's no way in hell I'm betting Ignatik or Sergeyev @ these odds. Good luck with those two though!

Avoiding Petkovic was the bet of the day, and I missed it. Looks like De Voest and Ignatik will cash.

Michael_Flieger · 03-06-13, 04:00 AM

WBC Japan +1' -160 (Cuba): 1.60/1.00 loss
WBC Japan-Cuba 7' under -140: 1.40/1.00 loss

3.46 + - 3 = +0.46 units