Indian Wells Picks (+ Santiago and Kyoto)

[lucasdawg]

may i ask about how sure you are about kerber and anderson?

[Dmoneytx]

BOL today Flinger! I like some of those plays today, I hope you do well

[Michael_Flieger]

Stebe -230 (Herbert): 2.30/1.00 loss

-11.50 + -2.30 = -13.80 units

[Michael_Flieger]

may i ask about how sure you are about kerber and anderson?

More sure about Kerber, but I do think both win.

[Michael_Flieger]

BOL today Flinger! I like some of those plays today, I hope you do well

Thanks! Good luck to you too. I think it's easier to read today than last week, now that it's down to the usuals.

[Michael_Flieger]

Vives-Zheng -290 (Begu-Rosolska): 5.80/2.00 win

[following swiss]

10-parlay

Berdych -1500 (F. Mayer) win
Gasquet -310 (Janowicz) win
Nadal -1650 (L. Mayer) canc.
Gulbis -225 (Seppi) win
Federer -1800 (Dodig) win
Bryan-Bryan -500 (Isner-Querrey) win
Azarenka -2775 (Flipkens) win
U. Radwanska +200 (Hampton) win
Kerber -330 (Wickmayer) win
Stosur -320 (Peng) win

.62/8.40 win

[a parlay built around uradw upsetting hampton]

-13.80 + 10.40 = (~)-3.40 units

[Michael_Flieger]

Bryan-Bryan -500 (Isner-Querrey) win

10.00/2.00

[line climbed the other day, probably will here too]

-3.40 +2.00 = -1.40 units

[Michael_Flieger]

Gulbis -3 -110 (Seppi): 2.20/2.00 push

[why get off the gulbis train? i prefer the -3 -110 to -230 in this case, and already have gulb in parlay anyway.]

[Michael_Flieger]

Vesnina +300 (Wozniacki): 1.00/3.00 loss
Vesnina +5 -125 (Wozniacki): 1.25/1.00 loss
U. Radwanska +215 (Hampton): 2.00/4.30 win
U. Radwanska +4 -114 (Hampton): 2.28/2.00 win
Barthel -140 (Ivanovic): 2.80/2.00 win

[hampton overrated, think vesnina keeps it close, probably loses in end but cant pass up a unit at 300 and any kind of close match the 5 should insure no loss. barthel if on can clean up ivanovic, fair price]

-1.40 + 6.05 = +4.55 units

4.55 + -.51 (parlay Nadal canc. adjustment.) = +4.01 units

[OhMyEli]

Gulbis -3 -110 (Seppi): 2.20/2.00

[why get off the gulbis train? i prefer the -3 -110 to -230 in this case, and already have gulb in parlay anyway.]

I'm not watching this, but is Gulbis going to retire? Up 4-1, 5-2 and loses the first set? Pathetic

[Michael_Flieger]

I'm not watching this, but is Gulbis going to retire? Up 4-1, 5-2 and loses the first set? Pathetic

nah, he got pissed, smashed racket. looked like he might melt down. but he took a break after 57 and came back and won. close but clear.

[Michael_Flieger]

That poor Barthel girl. Sweet Jesus. Bad enough she's ugly as homemade sin, although with beautiful legs, her face is covered with acne so bad I thought it might be poison ivy. Someone get that girl some makeup and skin care help.

[Michael_Flieger]

Elena Vesnina @EVesnina001

Lost to Caroline.She played well.Still need time to recover afterillness.Eating watermelon inthe room,watching tennis.Life isgetting better��

[Michael_Flieger]

WBC Japan -410 (Netherlands): 4.10/1.00 win

4.01 +1 = +5.01 units

[Michael_Flieger]

3-parlay

Djokovic -2170 (Dimitrov) win
Murray -1400 (Lu) win
Del Potro -1850 (Phau) win

11.43/2.07 win

3-parlay

Raonic -135 (Cilic) win
Almagro -150 (Haas) loss
Wozniacki -155 (Petrova)

4.00/15.09 loss

Fish +425 (Tsonga): 1.00/4.25 loss
Fish +4' -125 (Tsonga): 1.25/1.00 win
Bartoli +160 (Errani): 2.00/3.20 loss
Bartoli-Errani 20 over -120: 1.20/1.00 loss

errani's roll continues, very impressive, really thought bartoli would end it. almagro wastes match point.

5.01 + -5.33 = -.32 units

[Hardcoar]

Elena Vesnina @EVesnina001

Lost to Caroline.She played well.Still need time to recover afterillness.Eating watermelon inthe room,watching tennis.Life isgetting better��

She doesn't take this very seriously, does she? :/

[Bet10Heinekens]

3-parlay

Djokovic -2170 (Dimitrov)
Murray -1400 (Lu)
Del Potro -1850 (Phau)

11.43/2.07

3-parlay

Raonic -135 (Cilic)
Almagro -150 (Haas)
Wozniacki -155 (Petrova)

4.00/15.09

Fish +425 (Tsonga): 1.00/4.25
Fish +4' -125 (Tsonga): 1.25/1.00
Bartoli +160 (Errani): 2.00/3.20
Bartoli-Errani 20 over -120: 1.20/1.00

Why Fish, he's just playing his 2nd match of the year, he struggle vs country club level Bobby Reynolds

he's not in form to challenge a perennial top 10 player like Tsonga

[Hardcoar]

Likely because of the odds...

[CaptainOmar111]

Why Fish, he's just playing his 2nd match of the year, he struggle vs country club level Bobby Reynolds

he's not in form to challenge a perennial top 10 player like Tsonga

Agree %100

[Michael_Flieger]

Why Fish, he's just playing his 2nd match of the year, he struggle vs country club level Bobby Reynolds

he's not in form to challenge a perennial top 10 player like Tsonga

Good odds. I don't think much of Tsonga. Worth a small shot. There's a tendency to judge players by their best play, but many of them, like Tsonga, don't play at their best level very often. Anything close, I get a push with the games.

[Michael_Flieger]

She doesn't take this very seriously, does she? :/

Not sure what to make of it. I wasn't aware she was ill. Maybe she's referring to something months back.

[Michael_Flieger]

Bryan-Bryan -380 (Kubot-Tipsarevic): 7.60/2.00

-.32 units + 2.00 = +1.68 units

[Michael_Flieger]

Almagro -157 (Haas): 3.14/2.00 loss

1.68 units + -2.00 = -.32 units

[Michael_Flieger]

Vecino +1800 (Sharapova): .50/9.00 loss
Vecino +7' -120 (Sharapova): .60/.50 loss
Berlocq +600 (Nishikori): 1.00/6.00 win
Berlocq +5' -110 (Nishikori) 1.10/1.00 win

-.32 + 5.90 = 5.58 units

[Sam_Hawkins]

take a look at azarenka/radwanska U. i took radwanska +7,5 myself

[Michael_Flieger]

take a look at azarenka/radwanska U. i took radwanska +7,5 myself

i learn that way but like kirilenko +4' even better. havent been able to see uradw play and dont like betting blind. you can bet azarenka shook off the rust yesterday in that 3-setter, and if uradw's not hot she'll get rolled. i reeeeaally dont like playing games unless i think it's a 50-50 on who will win. i think kiri fits that.

thoughts: probably end of line for muguruza today, what a run, have won on her last five six times i took her. i do think kerber wins here but at -370 no real value except in parlay and i like woz better. i think barthel will beat stosur but just a lean because have not seen stosur play lately. think woz will get through petrova, may well take three sets.

[Sam_Hawkins]

I really think barthel will roll over stosur. If she gets used to her high second serve. Took her

[Michael_Flieger]

I really think barthel will roll over stosur. If she gets used to her high second serve. Took her

yeah...may use her for chase if almagro doesnt come back

[Michael_Flieger]

Kirilenko +335 (A. Radwanska): 2.00/6.70 win
Kirilenko +4' -105 (A. Radwanska): 2.10/2.00 win

5.58 + 8.70 = 14.28 units

[Michael_Flieger]

Barthel -3 -110 (Stosur): 2.20/2.00 loss

14.28 + -2.20 = 12.08 units

[Michael_Flieger]

Wozniacki -140 (Petrova): 2.80/2.00

[Not entirely sure about this, but gut has mostly been right, probably right here too. ]

12.08 + 2.00 = 14.08 units

[bigdrov1x]

Barthel won first set, and I see lost the next 2. I have made a lot of $$ betting on this girl this year. In my opinion, she has the game to compete with the best of the WTA. She just needs to find a better 2nd serve, and play more consistent. She is only 22 yrs, so she has time to learn I guess. I cannot for the life of me understand how this girls skin is so bad. They have great pharmaceuticals for that stuff these days. She is like #24 or something in the world, she just won in Paris. One would think that she has enough $$ to take care of the problem. Just baffles me because as a girl it has to kill her to have such a bad complexion. Anyways I still support her tennis because she plays aggressive and goes for winners, and is not a pusher.

[Michael_Flieger]

Barthel won first set, and I see lost the next 2. I have made a lot of $$ betting on this girl this year. In my opinion, she has the game to compete with the best of the WTA. She just needs to find a better 2nd serve, and play more consistent. She is only 22 yrs, so she has time to learn I guess.

agree.

I cannot for the life of me understand how this girls skin is so bad. They have great pharmaceuticals for that stuff these days. She is like #24 or something in the world, she just won in Paris. One would think that she has enough $$ to take care of the problem. Just baffles me because as a girl it has to kill her to have such a bad complexion. Anyways I still support her tennis because she plays aggressive and goes for winners, and is not a pusher.

did you see the match. the feeds were messed up all day, i dont know why. if i lose, i like to at least have paid for a lesson but i didnt see a shot in that match, and the woz match was screwed up too.

i do agree barthel has a big upside. a little more weight and experience, she has the height and movement to be on the azarenka / kvitova level - assuming she has a head equal to her body. generally these 6' 160-lb girls are going to win, other things being near equal.

[Michael_Flieger]

ended up being a good day, around 10 units, and would have been a great day if almagro had seized his match point. more tomorrow. or later today i guess it is.

[bigdrov1x]

Cannot watch WTA, it is way too stressful for my taste. I come from the standpoint of you hold your serve, try to get a break here and there. With these women it is like nothing to get broken, break back, 3 or 4 times a freakin set. I cannot take it. The matches were on Tennis Channel later, and no problems, but I did not see the Barthel match. Mona had a great 1st set against Ivanovic, and then destructed in the 2nd. I figure that she had the same problem with Stosur. Maybe with her topspin? Also these courts do not favor a player like Barthel who seems to like to hit a flatter ball. The thin desert air seems to demand heavy topspin to keep the ball in from what I have seen and heard. Also the court is like mega slow, and Barthel is a fast court player I think. I would look to clay court players, and heavy topspin players to close this tourney out. What are the odds of Rafa winning it all? I would think Rafa and then Joker would be my picks. Also on a tennis board, a guy who says he has a friend who hits with a pro said that once the balls are used a little and worn a little, they are losing some compression, and not going anywhere. I take it with a grain of salt, but I have heard from a lot of sources about the speed of the court being really slow. Also Larry Ellison skipped a Joker match to go practice with Rafa? Are they friends? He is paying for all of this investment into the Indian Wells facility. So the new courts are playing really slow this year? Favoring a clay court type game? Ellison and Rafa? Rafa would be a hugely popular champion? Who knows? Am I crazy? Opinions?