[Goat Milk]

I have Federer to win the French open at +1300 and I took Nadal to win before the Soderling match for +180 just for 100. I am 100% confident that this match will go the distance. Federer is being underestimated big time here, getting +5 and a nice ML price. He has been disposing of his opponents with ease and he looks better than he ever has at the French.

Djokovic has had feds number in the past 2 majors but is there anyway this match doesn't go AT LEAST 4 sets????

Any reason why I shouldn't unload 6 bills on this?

[ha1ogen]

fed was cruising along just fine at the australian too and than along comes djokovic who beats him 3-0, so probably not wise to unload on it

[Goat Milk]

fed was cruising along just fine at the australian too and than along comes djokovic who beats him 3-0, so probably not wise to unload on it

Djokovic will not win in 3 at the French, no way. Fed is a different player too

[EaglesPhan36]

Four sets isn't necessarily going to win this bet though on clay though. A lot more of a propensity to see lopsided sets on clay than hard surfaces. Hell, just look at their last five matches, only a couple sets that saw 7-6 or 7-5 scorelines.

I don't know how you can say you're 100% confident that any match is going to go five sets. Would think if you are that confident, you should unload instead that the match goes over 3.5 sets. Then all you need is both to win one set and the scorelines don't matter.

[shari91]

I will most likely be on the opposite side of this one Goatie so at least one of us will win some cash. If you're betting $600 then I guess I should hope for you. Best of luck

[yisman]

No.

I don't know how you can say you're 100% confident that any match is going to go five sets. Would think if you are that confident, you should unload instead that the match goes over 3.5 sets. Then all you need is both to win one set and the scorelines don't matter.

Agreed.

[petermans23]

Hi Goat Milk,

I´m on Federer ml. They have him at odds 3,55 at 5dimes. When did you get that odds on Federer?

I think the 4 days rest (after the w.o. win against Fognini) is not in Djokovics favour.

[Goat Milk]

I will most likely be on the opposite side of this one Goatie so at least one of us will win some cash. If you're betting $600 then I guess I should hope for you. Best of luck

And your reaosning? I agree with Eagles that its been tough to consistantly hold serve on clay but Federer has held serve throughout the entire tournamnet pretty easily and only slipped a bit against Monfils in the first set until he recovered quickly after. Same story with Djokovic. I don't see any lopsided 6-2 sets in this match, Federer will not make the same mistakes he did against Djoker last time

Don't foget Djokovic played the match of his life against Fed last major and Fed did not play as good as he's playing now. Djokovic is playing no where near the level at the French that he played at the Open in the match with Federer....guy barely made a mistake in that match, played flawless and the match still probably went over 37 games in a 3 setter....

[Goat Milk]

Federer as a +230 dog to anyone but Nadal on clay is a joke. I firmly believe Federer is as good a clay court player even at this stage in his career than Djokovic. I think Djokovic has taken over the hard courts but clay still goes to Nadal and Djokovic is being wayyy overvalued, its pretty insane because Federer is probably the better clay court player and has proven it

I took Federer to win the French at +1300. What a joke of a line. Djokovic was +125 or something before the tourny. No way he has separated himself that much from Federer. We have yet to see what Djokovic can do on the clay. I'm not saying he won't win I'm just saying there is a very fine line between him and Fed on clay

[shari91]

And your reaosning? I agree with Eagles that its been tough to consistantly hold serve on clay but Federer has held serve throughout the entire tournamnet pretty easily and only slipped a bit against Monfils in the first set until he recovered quickly after. Same story with Djokovic. I don't see any lopsided 6-2 sets in this match, Federer will not make the same mistakes he did against Djoker last time Don't foget Djokovic played the match of his life against Fed last major and Fed did not play as good as he's playing now. Djokovic is playing no where near the level at the French that he played at the Open in the match with Federer....guy barely made a mistake in that match, played flawless and the match still probably went over 37 games in a 3 setter....

My reasoning is the same reasoning I gave in chat before the Nadal/Sod match and believed before the Fed/Monfils match. My problem is that I got bored and bet the other matches today for fun.

Anyway my reasoning is this: Every time one of these "big" matches happens, in any tournament, men or women, people naturally lean or even bet the over. Stats don't normally support it - just like they don't here regardless of who wins (even worse so because they're on clay) - yet it's almost like people NEED to see an epic match.

And it doesn't happen more often than not. I've fallen into this trap many times. There are no stats to support this play. This is sheer hope. Hope that Federer can keep it close and ruin Djoko's streak, hope that Fed can keep it close but Djoko can ultimately prevail, etc...

I've been sucked into this too many times and the numbers don't lie. Four months ago Djoko beat Fed on his best surface in straight sets. For me to think that this will be a close match now, on clay, would be ridiculous of me. Fed didn't look infallible yesterday - not even close. He merely came up against a jackoff player who is lucky to have enough natural talent to allow him to get to that stage. He's a twit - no consistency, physical form is off, etc...

I'm not saying Djokovic is going to smoke Federer here but I've learned my lesson after too many times doing the opposite. In fact I was most likely on the over in the Aussie Open. Fed has too many errors for me to back an over here. If he's going to win, he'll do it in 3. He'll come out like a flash of lightning and destroy Djokovic. He's not going to beat him in a grinding match - definitely not on clay. If Djoko is going to win, I think he'll do it in 3, MAYBE 4. I'd be very surprised if this is an epic 5 setter and I'll be more than happy to suck up my $200 loss if I'm on the under and it is

[yisman]

Djokovic beat Nadal in two straight finals on clay without losing a set.

Not giving him his due is a joke.

We have yet to see what Djokovic can do on the clay.

I'm not saying he won't win I'm just saying there is a very fine line between him and Fed on clay

Speechless.

[yoshiments]

When you say djoko beat fed on his best surface in straight sets, I think your "his" is referring to fed which would be grossly wrong. Even if you make the argument that hard courts are better for feds game than grass at this stage of his career, they would most certainly be the faster courts in New York.

That being said, I agree with most everything you said and did bet soderling/nadal under as well as monfils/feds under. However, I do get the feeling that federer will hold it together for a set here. This is the first time that hes played nole in a grand slam as an underdog, and a relatively large one at that. He is relishing this position, which I think will allow him to swing more freely. I do think that he is way too wildly inconsistent to win a best of 5 here, but he has enough weapons to put it together for a set.

Furthermore, if your breaking down how nole has beaten feds and rafa this year, it has been because his backhand has just been so deadly. He's been able to change directions and flatten out balls that rafa and fed cant do. Feds though will be giving nole a heavy down of the slice backhand in backhand rallies which is gonna neutralize a lot of that edge - its just very difficult to hit winners off of balls so low to the ground. Forehand wise, they are relatively comparable. Feds has a bigger serve, while nole moves slightly better and gets a ton more returns in play. Worst comes to worst, feds is at the very least, a better version of delpo on clay, and he took a set off of nole (bad logic I know, but still...).

As far as a 4 set under, I don't see that happening between these two. There is a much better chance of a 12 game set happening in this match than there is an 8 game set. One 12 or 13 game set and over on 4 sets is locked.

[Goat Milk]

My reasoning is the same reasoning I gave in chat before the Nadal/Sod match and believed before the Fed/Monfils match. My problem is that I got bored and bet the other matches today for fun.

Anyway my reasoning is this: Every time one of these "big" matches happens, in any tournament, men or women, people naturally lean or even bet the over. Stats don't normally support it - just like they don't here regardless of who wins (even worse so because they're on clay) - yet it's almost like people NEED to see an epic match.

And it doesn't happen more often than not. I've fallen into this trap many times. There are no stats to support this play. This is sheer hope. Hope that Federer can keep it close and ruin Djoko's streak, hope that Fed can keep it close but Djoko can ultimately prevail, etc...

I've been sucked into this too many times and the numbers don't lie. Four months ago Djoko beat Fed on his best surface in straight sets. For me to think that this will be a close match now, on clay, would be ridiculous of me. Fed didn't look infallible yesterday - not even close. He merely came up against a jackoff player who is lucky to have enough natural talent to allow him to get to that stage. He's a twit - no consistency, physical form is off, etc...

I'm not saying Djokovic is going to smoke Federer here but I've learned my lesson after too many times doing the opposite. In fact I was most likely on the over in the Aussie Open. Fed has too many errors for me to back an over here. If he's going to win, he'll do it in 3. He'll come out like a flash of lightning and destroy Djokovic. He's not going to beat him in a grinding match - definitely not on clay. If Djoko is going to win, I think he'll do it in 3, MAYBE 4. I'd be very surprised if this is an epic 5 setter and I'll be more than happy to suck up my $200 loss if I'm on the under and it is

ok I see your points. I don't see how the Soderling Nadal match compares because I bet Nadal -5 and was pretty convinced Soderling would get smoked. I told Yisman this but he always wants to take the underdog. When you say Djoker beat fed on Fed's best surface, you are kind of discounting the fact that hard court is Djokovic's best surface by far and the line he has separated himself from everyone else on the hard courts is pretty dramatic. On the other hand, Djokovic is still behind Nadal on the clay courts and the balls at the French are only helping Federer with his serve. I really always value your advice more than anyone but I think that you are wrong here about Federer and he is being underestimated big time. All the pressure is on Novak in this match and Fed hasn't had this type of underdog role since he was 20 years old.

Djokovic beat Nadal in two straight finals on clay without losing a set.

Not giving him his due is a joke.



Speechless.

Don't take words out of my mouth. I said the line between Fed and Novak on CLAY is not as big as you think. You talk about the regular season of tennis like it matters. Just like you think the regular season in basketball means anything. Novak beating Nadal on clay in a non-major doesn't mean dick

[yisman]

Don't take words out of my mouth. I said the line between Fed and Novak on CLAY is not as big as you think. You talk about the regular season of tennis like it matters. Just like you think the regular season in basketball means anything. Novak beating Nadal on clay in a non-major doesn't mean dick

How did I take words out of your mouth? I directly quoted what you said.

The line between Fed and Novak on clay is pretty big right now.

Novak beating Nadal doesn't mean anything if it's not in a major? Evidently almost no one agrees with you, because Djokovic is the favorite to win the FO.

Not only did Djokovic win two tournaments heading into the FO, he's also been dominating in the FO itself. And you say he hasn't proven himself on clay?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Djoko looks unplayable this year.

Over is interesting though. The problem on clay though is the doublebreak sets, 61 and 62. Something like 64 46 61 64 doesn't cover.

[Goat Milk]

How did I take words out of your mouth? I directly quoted what you said.

The line between Fed and Novak on clay is pretty big right now.

Novak beating Nadal doesn't mean anything if it's not in a major? Evidently almost no one agrees with you, because Djokovic is the favorite to win the FO.

Not only did Djokovic win two tournaments heading into the FO, he's also been dominating in the FO itself. And you say he hasn't proven himself on clay?

Djokovic was made the favorite to win the French because of the extra rest he got. Federer has barely been broken and he loves these new balls they are using. I am well aware of Djokovic's run and I think he's the second best overall player in the world after a Healthy Nadal. But that stuff means nothing. This is a major last time I checked and Novak has 2 of those, and I don't think he's even ready to win on clay which is why I took Nadal to win the French at +180 for a bill and Federer at +1300.

The line between Fed and Novak on clay is big? No way. Fed is getting better and better on clay every year while he is regressing on the hard courts.

The hard courts on not federer's best surface anymore.

[Hall2Collie]

How isin't Djokovic close to winning the FO?

He has dominated every opponent he has seen on clay recently

He beat Nadal with ease two times in a row

He has breezed through the FO thus far including a win over a legit opponent in Del Potro

What are you waiting to see from him? Is dominating pretty much every set in the clay court season not enough?

[Goat Milk]

Locked in for $200 to win $181 so far. Will put more on this probably. We'll see Hall. Djokovic is a great player and I'm not underestimating him but I'm not gonna make the mistake of underestimating Federer like everyone in this thread.

Federer's best surface is now the clay I'm telling you, with the ball change, and his regression on the hard/grass from the dominance he used to show, he is finding his game on the clay this open and fed hasn't been an underdog like this is probably a decade. it must feel good that there is no pressure on him. i expect federer to win a minimum of 1 set, and would not be suprrised to see him win the match.

[Hall2Collie]

I'm not saying Federer can't win (unlikely imo) but I just think your reasoning against Djokovic is a little odd

He is more than ready to win the FO

Will he? who knows

[yisman]

Djokovic was made the favorite to win the French because of the extra rest he got.

That is absolutely not true. He was favored to win the French before Fognini withdrew. I can bump the thread about it if you'd like.

He was made the favorite because he was better than Nadal in the early rounds.

I am well aware of Djokovic's run and I think he's the second best overall player in the world after a Healthy Nadal. But that stuff means nothing. This is a major last time I checked and Novak has 2 of those, and I don't think he's even ready to win on clay which is why I took Nadal to win the French at +180 for a bill and Federer at +1300

What does this even mean? What's the argument? That Djokovic can't win a major?
How does it mean nothing? He's been clearly the best player in the world this year, and that goes for hard court and clay. He's not ready to win on clay? What about the entire clay season to this point? That doesn't count?

[Goat Milk]

That is absolutely not true. He was favored to win the French before Fognini withdrew. I can bump the thread about it if you'd like.

He was made the favorite because he was better than Nadal in the early rounds.



What does this even mean? What's the argument? That Djokovic can't win a major?
How does it mean nothing? He's been clearly the best player in the world this year, and that goes for hard court and clay. He's not ready to win on clay? What about the entire clay season to this point? That doesn't count?

Well my argument is in the posts above for why Fed has a good shot in this match. Anyway you are underestimating Federer big time on clay. Fed can't compete with Djokovic on the hard courts anymore, but this is a best of 5 on clay so we'll see what happens.

[yisman]

These are two quotes from you:

This is a major last time I checked and Novak has 2 of those, and I don't think he's even ready to win on clay

We have yet to see what Djokovic can do on the clay.

I wanted to know what the argument was, because it looks pretty flimsy from where I'm sitting.

[shari91]

Goatie, you know I don't argue with you and you DEFINITELY know I never want to see you lose a penny. You and I both love tennis. We talk about it, debate players, etc...

But if you're going to ignore every single other post in this thread, look at the one I quoted. Below you'll find probably the sharpest tennis bettor on any forum anywhere. So much so that he features PROMINENTLY on another forum. He said much more eloquently what Yiser and I were figuring out in another thread - even in 4 sets, you can be sunk. This is NOT worth $600. Seriously. Not this bet.

The guy below has maybe twice popped in my thread in a year that I remember and rarely posts on here about tennis as he has somewhere else to post first (although I'd pay him to if I could). He came in here and told you something. Whether he's right or wrong, please just think about it. This bet is not worth $600. Honestly xo

Djoko looks unplayable this year. Over is interesting though. The problem on clay though is the doublebreak sets, 61 and 62. Something like 64 46 61 64 doesn't cover.

[Goat Milk]

These are two quotes from you:

I wanted to know what the argument was, because it looks pretty flimsy from where I'm sitting.

Shari, I read the post from that guy. He made the same point as EaglesPhan. I see all your points but it seems as though everyone has just come to the conclusion that Federer is gonna lose this match 100% and to be honest, I see Federer having a really good shot to win this match. I don't see any 6-1 sets in this match.


Yisman my arguments are all above
-Djokovic has been off for awhile and could start rusty
-The new balls favor Federer because he has the better serve
-Any windy conditions favor Federer imo
-Djokovic is being way overvalued so the O/U line seems off. It should probably be around 39.5.
-Federer is getting no credit, when its clear that Federer is in the same discussion as Novak on the clay courts. The Hard courts are not Federer's best surface anymore
-Fed hasn't dropped a set the entire open and has barely broke a sweat.
-All the pressure is on Novak to win. Federer hasn't been an underdog like this in a decade.
- The regular season can't be relied on. That's like saying Derrick Rose is a top 5 player in the nba because of the unreal season he have, and clearly, Rose is no where near the top 5. He is top 10.

[Goat Milk]

I just put another $200 so its

$400 to win $362.

Shari I will take your advice and just leave it at 400

[yisman]

I don't think Federer is going to lose 100%.

I think he has a shot, but Djokovic is clearly the superior player right now.

I'd rather bet Federer ML than the total, though, and if I had to get involved with totals, I'd bet over 3.5 sets as opposed to over games.

[Goat Milk]

alright well thanks for the advice from everyone. I have the future bet on Fed so its not really worth it to take the ML, but the over 3.5 sets seems good. I'm already locked in so we'll see what happens.

I'll probably look like an idiot after this match is over

[Lord and Master]

-The new balls favor Federer because he has the better serve
-Any windy conditions favor Federer imo

this is a contradiction, windy conditions make a serve alot more unrealiable(see soderling today). its to the advantage of the player with the weaker serve. fed's serve is not about power its about hitting the lines how in the world do you expect him to be so precise with 15+ mph gusts

-Fed hasn't dropped a set the entire open and has barely broke a sweat.

he has had a bunch of cakewalks, he hasn't been less than -600 all tournament

so you sound pretty damn convinced federer is alot better than djokovic. why then are you betting an over in games? you seem convinced fed could easily win in straight sets and then you lose. or fed drops a set but makes easy work like 6-3 or 2 in the other 3 sets and you still lose. makes no sense at all: you think fed is clearly better but would rather take a bet for even money THAT INCLUDES A SCENARIO WHERE YOU LOSE IF FED WINS rather than getting +250 for fed to win. mind boggling

[Lord and Master]

Fed can't compete with Djokovic on the hard courts anymore, but this is a best of 5 on clay so we'll see what happens.

wow you are just clueless but this year with the new ball they are basically playing on hard courts. conditions are faster at roland garros than they have ever been and its dry and hot. have you even watched a game this french open?

[Lord and Master]

alot of really good clay court players got upset(ferrer, almagro, etc.), djokovic and andy murray are cruising, del potro got a set off djokovic, soderling could've easily beat nadal today if there was no wind...this all equals really fast conditions dude....there's a reason nadal isn't favored to win

[MCherry281]

37.5 seems so low. Four sets will almost surely do it as you'd have to think at least one set will be 7-6 or 7-5. I think Fed will get at least one.

[Goat Milk]

1. Federer has a much better overall serve than Soderling so not sure what you mean there.

2. I am making arguments for Federer here because the argument for Djokovic is clear. He is the best overall player in the world right now. He's had an unbelievable run and has played flawless tennis. Do I really need to make an argument for the Djoker holding up his end of the bargain?

3. If you think Rolland Garros is like playing on hard courts because of wind and the ball change you are nuts. The conditions are way trickier and playing on clay is no where near hard courts no matter how fast its playing, i play on both every year, and i play on the red clay and the gravel clay. and carpet.

[makman]

Joker is the favorite here, he will win here, It depends on his game, and how may times he will break Fedex's serves.
Under 37.5 or over 37.5 both may happen..For now just Djokovic knows the answer. But in such games i would lean under... Nadal-Soderling game was also similar character, and went under...This one will probably go under as well....For over, i would choose Murray-Nadal game...But i dont want to be misunderstood...Murray got no chance against Nadal ....

[makman]

alot of really good clay court players got upset(ferrer, almagro, etc.), djokovic and andy murray are cruising, del potro got a set off djokovic, soderling could've easily beat nadal today if there was no wind...this all equals really fast conditions dude....there's a reason nadal isn't favored to win

You mean, Nadal won because of the wind ??????? Huh????
Strange theory mate, very strange, God helped the king of clay ????

[andywend]

GoatMilk,
Federer has no chance to win this match and Djokovic will beat him in straight sets.

The French Open has ALWAYS been Federer's worst event of the 4 majors as he hates the clay surface of Roland Garros.

Djokovic to win 3-0 and the match will go under 37 1/2 games. Time to put money where my mouth is.

Holy Crap, Djokovic to win in 3 sets is priced at +215 at Betfair. Incredible value!!!!