Is Federer/Djokovic OVER 37.5 the easiest tennis bet of the year?

[andywend]

Bookmaker and Greek took the sets and total games line off the board and my limits at 5 Dimes are at 20% so I can only bet $50 there.

BoDog's line on the Djokovic 3-0 is +150 on the Yes and -200 on the No even though the line at BetFair is @ +215. No way I can take +150 when the true line is +215.

Crap, I sure hope I wind up being wrong about this.

[horja1]

How isin't Djokovic close to winning the FO?

He has dominated every opponent he has seen on clay recently

Remember the match vs T.Belluci in Madrid? Only Belluci's choke saved Djokovic in that match ... Belluci only needed to hold his serve in second set to win the match

[JOHON8]

I think the over is a great play. Djokovic is a big favorite to win here, deservedly, but Federer has to put up a fight. I know his personal life with the family and all has removed the edge he used to have in the game but he has a lot to prove vs Djokovic. Djoko ML is the safest way to go though IMO.

[makman]

Remember the match vs T.Belluci in Madrid? Only Belluci's choke saved Djokovic in that match ... Belluci only needed to hold his serve in second set to win the match

Holding his serve in second set was possible only if Joker had continued to send him easy balls, (just as he was doing in the first set, and in the second set until he let young Bellucci break his serve.). Joker was toying with Bellucci...made him tired, made him take things easier, than started to play his game... how the hell you didnt notice that ???

In top players games, it is better to watch the body language of the players instead of watching the scoreboard.

BTW Joker was in trouble just one time lately, and it was against Murray in Rome semis

[Lord and Master]

1. Federer has a much better overall serve than Soderling so not sure what you mean there.

wow how thick are you? i didn't say anything close to that....the wind has a huge affect on serve, therefore fed's serve is alot less effective. therefore the wind favors djokovic.....soderling has an incredible serve and it was useless against nadal because of the wind

3. If you think Rolland Garros is like playing on hard courts because of wind and the ball change you are nuts.

AND weather its been dry and hot all month. all the clay court specialists were getting upset, nadal was struggling, and the hard court players were crushing. there is a reason for all this

The conditions are way trickier and playing on clay is no where near hard courts no matter how fast its playing, i play on both every year, and i play on the red clay and the gravel clay. and carpet.

you have not watched any of this year's french open or you are just stupid or blind

[Goat Milk]

wow how thick are you? i didn't say anything close to that....the wind has a huge affect on serve, therefore fed's serve is alot less effective. therefore the wind favors djokovic.....soderling has an incredible serve and it was useless against nadal because of the wind



AND weather its been dry and hot all month. all the clay court specialists were getting upset, nadal was struggling, and the hard court players were crushing. there is a reason for all this



you have not watched any of this year's french open or you are just stupid or blind

Who's ghost are you? Do you like just going around calling everyone dumb? We'll see if the bet wins. The wind favors federer in my opinion. maybe i'm stupid then because i have watched the entire open for the most part and the clay is no where near the hard courts it doesn't matter how fast they are playing. last time i checked the top 4 players in the world were in the semis and those guys are the best in the world on every surface

[stc9357]

Here's the best bet goat N.Djokovic Sets Won -1.5 (-147) if you want to put $600 down this is it no way Fed takes two off joker.

[Sawyer]

Nice value on Fed but..Fed cannot beat Djoker right now. Djoker is hot and playing like frenzy. Even Nadal couldn't stop him.

Over 3½ Sets @ 1.65 safe bet imo.

Djoker will be the New King!

[nastradamus]

I like over too! 4 sets are minimum tomorow!

[Goat Milk]

lots on federer ml

[yisman]

^ You bet Fed ML? You were saying you wouldn't due to the futures bet.

For the record, I hope it goes over.

[shari91]

For the record, I hope it goes over.

For Goatie's sake, I do too. He has much more on this than my measly $100 on the under.

I just want to see a great match but with this wind I have a feeling I'm going to be disappointed yet again.

[SRBI]

Djoko 3-0 or 3-1, book it.

[pattymayo]

good luck Goat Milk

[Tsonga]

If I had to pick I would say Djoker in 3 - outside chance at Djoker in 4.

[Dr.Gonzo]

No.

[yisman]

Line discrepancy at 5 Dimes:

Fri 6/3 153 R.Federer Games Won +5½ -155 o37½ -165 10:00AM 154 N.Djokovic Games Won -5½ +125 u37½ +135 Fri 6/3 155 R.Federer Games Won +5 -120 o37 -160 10:00AM 156 N.Djokovic Games Won -5 -110 u37 +130


basically over 37.5 is favored by more than over 37.

[Goat Milk]

^ You bet Fed ML? You were saying you wouldn't due to the futures bet.

For the record, I hope it goes over.

no just have the future.

Fed takes the first set. What he lacks in consistency from the baseline he makes up for with his cerebral adjustments with the outdoor conditions (wind, pace, etc). Lord and Master did not believe me

[jordigs]

OMG what an amazing first set

[koscheckbaby]

I like this bet. You just need 25 more games to go. I think Djokovic has this match. Federer played as well as possible and still only won 7-6 and had to save set point

[shari91]

Good start so far Goatie!

Now I have to basically hope for Fed to take it in 3 for my under to hit.

Hate this damn wind though. This would be so much more of an exciting match if they both could just play instead of battling the wind constantly.

[Goat Milk]

djokovic is -110 live right now

[Tsonga]

I just got into this match with Djoker at 1.952, I figured this was a better rate to grab.

[yisman]

Who's ghost are you? Do you like just going around calling everyone dumb? We'll see if the bet wins. The wind favors federer in my opinion. maybe i'm stupid then because i have watched the entire open for the most part and the clay is no where near the hard courts it doesn't matter how fast they are playing. last time i checked the top 4 players in the world were in the semis and those guys are the best in the world on every surface

They're clearly the top four in the world, but I don't agree about every surface. I think David Ferrer, for example, has a case for being in the top 4 on clay (3rd after Djokovic and Nadal). For some reason he has never excelled at Roland Garros, but his other clay work is very impressive.

[koscheckbaby]

Uh oh. With Federer turning into Milos Raonic with these aces and getting a free break by Djokovic, this could be a straight setter. I swear to God, Federer did not earn this match. But he's gonna get so much credit, it's gonna be ridiculous

[yisman]

Federer now up a break and favored to win the match.

Djokovic in big trouble.

[goduke]

federer was +900 to win 3-0.

[shari91]

Fed has too many errors for me to back an over here. If he's going to win, he'll do it in 3. He'll come out like a flash of lightning and destroy Djokovic. He's not going to beat him in a grinding match - definitely not on clay.

I still don't think Fed is going to win this in 3 but does anyone remember the odds on Fed 3-0 just so I can laugh my arse off if it hits?

[shari91]

federer was +900 to win 3-0.

[Goat Milk]

fukin novak

[letsgo]

I don't know that this goes past 3, which is a problem for the over.

[yisman]

Problem? If Djokovic doesn't win this set, the under wins, period.

For all the expectations, the bet is now simply "Will Djokovic win the third set?"

Djokovic was favored at Pinnacle -129/+110 for the set if anyone cares.

[Gaskan]

Uh oh. With Federer turning into Milos Raonic with these aces and getting a free break by Djokovic, this could be a straight setter. I swear to God, Federer did not earn this match. But he's gonna get so much credit, it's gonna be ridiculous

Are you on crack? Federer is tearing up Joker's serve. He has had 22 break chances to Novak's 6. He is taking care of his serve better plain and simple.

[Goat Milk]

Federer as a +230 dog to anyone but Nadal on clay is a joke. I firmly believe Federer is as good a clay court player even at this stage in his career than Djokovic. I think Djokovic has taken over the hard courts but clay still goes to Nadal and Djokovic is being wayyy overvalued, its pretty insane because Federer is probably the better clay court player and has proven it

I took Federer to win the French at +1300. What a joke of a line. Djokovic was +125 or something before the tourny. No way he has separated himself that much from Federer. We have yet to see what Djokovic can do on the clay. I'm not saying he won't win I'm just saying there is a very fine line between him and Fed on clay

Locked in for $200 to win $181 so far. Will put more on this probably. We'll see Hall. Djokovic is a great player and I'm not underestimating him but I'm not gonna make the mistake of underestimating Federer like everyone in this thread.

Federer's best surface is now the clay I'm telling you, with the ball change, and his regression on the hard/grass from the dominance he used to show, he is finding his game on the clay this open and fed hasn't been an underdog like this is probably a decade. it must feel good that there is no pressure on him. i expect federer to win a minimum of 1 set, and would not be suprrised to see him win the match.

Shari, I read the post from that guy. He made the same point as EaglesPhan. I see all your points but it seems as though everyone has just come to the conclusion that Federer is gonna lose this match 100% and to be honest, I see Federer having a really good shot to win this match. I don't see any 6-1 sets in this match.


Yisman my arguments are all above
-Djokovic has been off for awhile and could start rusty
-The new balls favor Federer because he has the better serve
-Any windy conditions favor Federer imo
-Djokovic is being way overvalued so the O/U line seems off. It should probably be around 39.5.
-Federer is getting no credit, when its clear that Federer is in the same discussion as Novak on the clay courts. The Hard courts are not Federer's best surface anymore
-Fed hasn't dropped a set the entire open and has barely broke a sweat.
-All the pressure is on Novak to win. Federer hasn't been an underdog like this in a decade.
- The regular season can't be relied on. That's like saying Derrick Rose is a top 5 player in the nba because of the unreal season he have, and clearly, Rose is no where near the top 5. He is top 10.

Cash the over bet unless Fed wins the 4th set 6 love which won't happen.

[yisman]

Good one, Goat.

it sounds like they won't be able to get in a 5th set today, so if Djokovic wins the 4th, they'll either postpone it then or they'd have to do it mid-set.