Nice write ups. I think Sijsling will wear Istomin down over 5 too.
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Parlay: Tipsy -155/Querrey -1250/Nishikori -1175/Ferrer -2300 = +101 - Ok so outside of Tipsy, Nishikori's knee doesn't worry me one bit, he is going to eat Hanescu alive on the baseline. Ferrer and Rochus have had tussles in the past but there is no way Ferrer goes down. Querrey goes up against Munoz De La Nava, a respectable veteran who is quite short and is going to eat tons of aces. Ok as for Tipsy, I'm sure his elbow is fine, withdrawing from an exhibition means nothing to me. Tipsy gets a lot of hate but the fact is he hits with incredible pace and I really doubt Hewitt's body can handle that kind of pace, the same reason I bet Istomin as a dog earlier this season against Hewitt. Everyone expects some kind of epic but I think Tipsy handles this in 3...Comment -
Andujar +415 vs Malisse - Ok here's what I'm thinking here, I know Andujar comes in here with a losing streak. The guy has consistently been putting in matches on hard courts and if we throw away indoor matches where he usually gets wrecked he isn't the worst outdoors. The guy plays consistent and makes you beat him. I think Malisse's line is way too big here and I consider Andujar a big match player of sorts, he's not afraid of the big results. Malisse played 3 hard hitters last week and went toe to toe with power, this time around nothing will be given to him, he has to create his own pace and play at his best to get through this in 3. I expect letdowns from him in a best of 5 and Malisse continues to get older and you can see how much more nervous he gets because of it. If Malisse brings his game he will win but Andujar is no pushover and Malisse needs to be way better than the odds suggest to advance.Comment -
I watched Malisse play a match in NZ and was kind of surprised how powerful and confident he looked. Was 'almost' thinking about backing him here on the back of it. But agree with you... -500 fave is way over the top against Andujar. One of those bets you can take for the value and should not care about the outcome, as there is only one good side to the bet..Comment -
Malisse is giving it to Andujar right now. Not looking too good. Let's find another longshot...Comment -
YTD 14-11 +4.89u
Kamke +6 +105 vs Wawrinka -These two have never faced off but I expect this will be a boring encounter at times. Both guys can turn into pushing but Kamke has been very solid and can ball bash all over Wawrinkas backhand with his own, Wawrinka though has a much stronger serve and will be getting much more cheap points off there but in all basic rallies it can go either way if Wawrinka is not on his best game. I think this match will be tight and Im going with the spread here against Wawrinka because he hasn't shown me enough to think he will take this in straights.
Berankis +110 vs Mayer - Florian has been struggling lately and Berankis is always a bad matchup for him, he can take the low slices and hit them back with serious pace. I think Berankis gets through this unlike Rhyne Williams who wasn't able to, Florian can be a dangerous opponent but has been struggling since late last year and seems to be on the decline.Comment -
Careful on Kamke, I think his game is crap honestly! If Stan is on, he should cover the 6 games easy. If he is off and acting like an idiot, Kamke has a shot I think. Tough play here, but good luck! Also, good luck on the Berankis play, I always like to fade Mayer, hate that guys style of play!!! BOL!Comment -
Levine +205 vs Simon - I really like Levine's form here, his inside out fh is nasty right now and Simon's serve numbers are down this year, I think Levine is gonna get many breaks. Baseline rallies are gonna be tight really, Levine has been playing with a low ue ratio and I think he matches up with Simon really well.
Kohlschreiber -1800/ Ferrer -645/Nieminen -245 = -140 - Kohli goes up against Weintraub whose also got a nice one hander but Kohlschreiber's game is way more advanced and he will get through this. Ferrer goes up against Baghdatis who has shown flashes of brilliance but his gm presents too many dips which won't match well with Ferrer's consistency off the forehand wing. Ferrer will also get the majority of Baggy's serves back in play and I just doubt Baggy will be able to hold with ease in this one. Nieminen goes up against Dodig, he was lucky to escape with Haas but Dodig has looked weak this season. Nieminen is hitting with such nice angles and Dodig plays too deep at times and I think Nieminen will be able to dictate whenever Dodig doesn't land the first serve.
Brands +6.5 games +100 vs Tomic - Tomic has been flashy but I think this will be in rhythm of consistent holds here and Tomic will have a lapse in concentration on the big stage and drop his serves a few times. Brands serve is huge right now and he will get tons of cheap points on his 1st serve and still be in control of any 2nd serve points. Tomic is gonna be hitting well often too and should be able to set up tons of winners but this will be tight.
Cilic -8 games -105 vs Ram - I think Ram doesn't present anything in rallies to trouble Cilic at all, Cilic will have a ton of winners and be able to have Ram as a target at net and if he can stay on his game should get through this quickly in 3. Ram's serve volley game I don't think will work here too well, his kick serve will still be in Cilic hitting zone.Comment -
Falla +7 games -105 vs GasquetComment -
YTD 16-14 +3.99u
Wawrinka -135 vs Querrey - I question Querrey's form right now and if Wawrinka can stay consistent here he will fare much better in this match, Querrey depends on that first serve and I expect he's going to have his fair share of dips in play. Wawrinka is also someone I would love to have my money on in a best of 5.
Verdasco +130 vs Kev Anderson - Verdasco is playing big right now and Kev Anderson has been known as a choker. I think Verdasco will have his opportunities in rallies and he plays big in Aussie typically and I think he will perform better on the big stageComment -
Love the Wawrinka pick but I'm leaning Anderson myself. Trying to muster up a playComment -
Kohlschreiber +125 vs Raonic - Kohli is playing with a lot of confidence right now and I trust him to be able to consistently hold his serve in this one. His fitness level is also really strong so Im not scared if this goes the distance, the only thing I really need to worry about is Kohli's confidence in the tight moments and I think he can overcome that with his form so far this year.Comment -
YTD 17-16 +2.99u
Sandgren +225 vs Zverev (Dallas Challenger) - Sandgren is a very respectable player out of Tennessee and besides having crowd support I think he continues to show good form and improve match after match. I followed Zverev pretty closely in Maui, he caused upset after upset and served great, while playing a very consistent baseline gm before he rolled his ankle bad late in the final. I think this price is simply way too big because I have to question the German here. I think Sandgren might get one of his biggest wins of this year today.Comment -
YTD 17-17 +1.99u
Montanes +104 vs DGT - Odds have shifted here big time and I def want to make a play on old Albert here. Massu was in really good form when I watched him lose to Delbonis so I think his tight battle with him is misleading, A lot of this match has to do with Montanes serve, hes got that slice whip serve that can be garbage if he's missing the first a lot. DGT continues to make strides but I don't trust him completely yet, his forehand is money but he won't have the edge in the basic rally here. I think Montanes is a steal at + money hereComment