JNic's Tennis Thread

[JNic]

YTD 0-0
I got 2 plays for tonight, a unit on every play and if I go down 10 units then I stop no matter what
1u Istomin -110 over Klizan - Klizan saw a very strong hot streak turn into a meltdown last year when he choked in his final match against Seppi. Istomin wanted nothing more than last year to end, he had success in Aussie last year and I expect a different kind of Istomin to show up.
1u Harrison -190 over Robredo - Harrison had quite a horrible end of last year and had that horrible Olympics thing where he smashed his racket and was forced to apologize, basically he was completely ashamed of the way he ended the year. He became too passive. I expect Harrison to have gone all out in the off-season and he chose to do qualies in order to be 100% prepared. The old Harrison will let Robredo dictate play on his forehand, hopefully this new Harrison will come strong. I expect him to scrap to the fullest and expect nothing less than a win from him to start his 2013 campaign.

[MakinItHappen]

You've won the Istomin bet, jus seen the courts and they are way too fast for Klizan. GSM. Nice hit.

[JNic]

YTD 0-0

1u Istomin -110 over Klizan - win
1u Harrison -190 over Robredo - loss -That was disgusting from Harrison, the same guy as last year. His serve bails him out but he's useless against a guy like Robredo who dictated the majority of points w/ forehand

YTD 1-1 -.09 -
1u - Ram +135 - Ram has made serious strides in becoming a respectable singles player instead of just doubles. Ram provides such a unique attacking net game that it's hard to trust Sela here, Sela can come up with some good passes but Ram has a big chance to overpower him and make him uncomfortable. Sela's first match, I will gladly fade him against Ram, let's see if he can come up with the passes.

[JNic]

YTD 1-1 -.09 -
1u - Ram +135 - L - Sela was making some dumb errors to start off and then he was picking apart Ram at net... should have known

YTD 1-2 -1.09
1u - Baghdatis -170/Soeda -270 = +117 -I don't trust Mayer at all, I saw a couple of his indoor matches and he brought absolute dog shit form. Baghdatis has tons of success in Aussie and is a much better outdoor hc player. Courts are pretty fast but I really doubt Mayer can keep up with Baggys ballstriking, Mayer is going to do everything to break Baggys rhythm but I doubt he will have what it takes. Soeda is defending semis here and goes against homeboy Armitraj, Armitraj has literally played too much tennis right now and Rufin kept going to net and giving him free points. Soeda needs to handle the crowd and I don't think Armitraj has enough to last in a long match with a seasoned ball striker like Soeda. I respect Armitraj because he can come up with some big serves and come to net often but he will need something really special to win this one.

[JNic]

1u - Kohlschreiber -140 - Monfils favors the h2h 7-1, and also has that win last year when he was coming back from injury. I think Kohlschreiber conquers his h2h demon here and gets through this. He showed stellar form against Dodig and I think he may continue to rise after his career year. Monfils is still on the comeback and mentally is what holds Kohlschreiber back here, I'm willing to take that risk though.

[JNic]

YTD 1-2 -1.09
1u - Baghdatis -170/Soeda -270 = +117 -W
1u - Kohlschreiber -140 - L -Fukking Joke, unreal

YTD 2-3 -0.92
1u - Istomin +115 - Hewitt is pumped up and Klizan didn't even really let Istomin play because constant unforced errors. I want to back Istomin here because his weight of shot on this surface is immense and it will be a serious test for Hewitt. Istomin doesn't look that effective but neither does Hewitt. I like the odds here, an auto play for me

[JNic]

1u - Verdasco +130 - "http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-betting/2102912-1-2-13-i-spy.html#post17339256" Post #3 gonna tail EaglesPhan36

[JNic]

YTD 2-3 -0.92
1u - Istomin +115 - win
1u - Verdasco +130 - void Isner pulled out

YTD 3-3 +0.23
1u - Lacko +270 - Lacko is on fire right now after a horrible run, he's always been one of the most relaxed guys and I want to go with him against Gasquet. Gasquet had a serious fight with Zemlja, a high quality match, It def took a lot out of Gasquet and Lacko will be another similar tough matchup. Lacko is serving well atm and his backhand is what really has come on, I think Lacko can step up head to head with Gasquet's backhand if he's on. I like the odds here, GL

[davopnz]

like lacko, do you like nishikori?

[JNic]

like lacko, do you like nishikori?

I honestly have no idea with that one. Nishikori and Dolgo I don't feel comfortable with gauging either of them atm

[JNic]

1u - Davydenko/Bolelli o20.5 -102 - I like Davydenkos newfound form and he leads Bolelli 3-0 in the h2h but things are going to be way tougher here than it seems imo. Bolelli had a weak year last year but has a very very capable game, he can stand with Davydenko on the baseline and step in to cut off his angles. I think with 2 tight wins Bolelli will come out with extra confidence here and the pressure is firmly on Davydenko's shoulders and we have seen in the last year how Davydenko can suffer from letdowns. I expect a tight encounter

[JNic]

YTD 3-3 +0.23
1u - Lacko +270 - Loss - Lacko had some heel problem that made him mentally lose that first set easily but he was just outmatched in the 2nd
1u - Davydenko/Bolelli o20.5 -102 - Loss

YTD 3-5 -1.77u
1u - Baghdatis -140/Nishikori -135 +198 - Vintage Aussie Baghdatis here, I think if he can keep a positive winner/ue ratio then he can get through this. His serve in the Mayer match was very strong and he's bound to get tons of cheap points. Simon is always a capable opponent but I think Baggy can get through him with the superior ballstriking hes shown thus far. Nishikori is just such a good matchup for Dolgo, Dolgo consistently has a weak first serve % and Nishikori is just such a great 2nd serve returner and consistent on the baseline. Dolgo needs to be on fire to get through this one.

[JNic]

I honestly have no idea with that one. Nishikori and Dolgo I don't feel comfortable with gauging either of them atm

Haha davo I actually changed my mind on Nishikori, hope it doesnt come back to bite me

[JNic]

1u - Paire +255 - Paire has been held back mentally and his main problem is usually his thought process. I want to get on him early because I think he is going to play another really composed match against Cilic. His speed on court is unreal and I think he has the power etc to stay with Cilic. Cilic can be prone to those UE streaks and I think Paire has a really solid shot here

[JNic]

YTD 3-5 -1.77u
1u - Baghdatis -140/Nishikori -135 +198 - Win1u - Paire +255 - Win

YTD 5-5 +2.76u
1u - Ferrer -300 vs Davydenko - This is a line I simply do not agree with, Davydenko is bringing very good form here and holds a good h2h with Ferrer but it will take a lot to take out Ferrer here. I will gladly accept defeat if Davydenko brings world class form to advance.

[Optional]

I think I thought about this match exactly the same way you did, yet took Davy +265.

I'll gladly accept defeat if he does not bring world class form for the third match in a row.

GL

[Djoking]

Davydenko never have good form he is play only for bookmakers. His brother made bets against Nikolay opponents

[JNic]

YTD 5-5 +2.76u
1u - Ferrer -300 vs Davydenko - L Bravo davydenko

YTD 5-6 +1.76u
1u - Davydenko -155

[JNic]

1u - Harrison -210 v Kavcic

[JNic]

YTD 5-6 +1.76u
1u - Davydenko -155 L
1u - Harrison -210 v Kavcic Win

YTD 6-7 +1.24u
1u Lorenzi +190 v Lacko - Lorenzi continues to get no respect on HC. Lacko had a strong week last week but the public needs to chill. Lacko had a slight heel problem and while he can easily win this if he's on, you gotta question him right before Aussie Open where hes gotta defend a few rounds. Lorenzi never makes it easy and Lacko's flat strokes can produce a lot of UEs at times.

[JNic]

1u - Falla +100 vs Zemlja - a lot of stock is being put into Zemlja last week against Gasquet. Falla also brought some good form last week and he should not have + money here.

[JNic]

Also to explain the line movement now, I just read about Zemlja posting shit on facebook. http://www.facebook.com/grega.zemlja?fref=ts He wrote 39.1 C ! 18 hours ago, so that would explain a fever of some sort and he will most likely withdraw

[JNic]

YTD 6-7 +1.24u
1u Lorenzi +190 v Lacko - loss
1u - Falla +100 vs Zemlja - win

YTD 7-8 +1.24u
1u - Levine +100 vs Baker - Baker caught a little hot streak off the return against Janowicz but Levine is clearly the better outdoor hc player. Levine is bringing some strong form here, qualifying last week and getting to the 2r here. He leads the h2h 2-0 against Baker and I give him the edge in any rallies, the key is for Levine to keep his 1st serve % high bc Baker is going to be taking swings off his 2nd serve, he served almost 70% last night and he's not giving his opponents much. Baker is way too streaky for Levine and I really doubt he can string enough to take him down in 2 sets. This will be close and Levine at + money makes no sense to me

[tevari]

they're both mugs, man. especially BB. shows up and plays when he feels like it. also has a knack for playing to the level of his competition, so levine may be gold here. GL.

[Optional]

I looked quickly at this match and thought to myself I need to work out why they have Levine as the dog here. Kind of smelled of a possible opportunity to go Baker, just based on the odds and no research.

ie: the books know Baker has an edge somewhere. And maybe also hope most of us would jump on Levine +odds as well?

Normally I'd quite like Levine over Baker too.

[JNic]

YTD 7-8 +1.24u
1u - Levine +100 win

8-8 +2.24u
Munoz de la nava -175 risk 1u

[JNic]

8-8 +2.24u
Munoz de la nava -175 risk 1u w

9-8 +2.81u
Monfils +145 vs Haas - This is a tough match to cap but I think the odds are a little too much here, Monfils is obv recovering right now but giving everything he has to get his ranking up. He sorta ran out of steam in Doha but here he got an easy Aussie after his 3 setter and should be ready for this match. Monfils has something to prove in my mind and his serve has been coming up big in the past 2 weeks. I think he can cause some fits for Haas, Haas showed some good form at Hopman cup before that beating to Djokovic. He did well to take out Sijsling but I feel like if he wants to take this match he needs to bring it all and you know Haas is going to have an eye looking at Aussie Open coming up. Monfils needs to keep attacking on his serve and not settle back and let Haas dictate.

[tevari]

I've faded Monfils for a week now, with little to no results. I am on Haas (straight wager) and have him in a parlay. Sucks that one of us will have to lose.

[JNic]

His match against Kohli showed me something, he was clearly the 2nd best player on court but the guy is playing the big points big and his serve is as good as ever. I hate his game style sometimes, reminds me of defensive Harrison but the guy gets himself in winning positions

[JNic]

9-8 +2.81u
Monfils +145 vs Haas - win

YTD 10-8 +4.26u
Kohlschreiber +130 vs Querrey - I think Kohli is in stellar form right now and is pretty loose right now in terms of nerves. Both guys are def going to come to play but I'm not sure about these huge odds Kohli is opening up at. I think if Kohli plays his game he can hold serve as easily as Querrey can. This one will be tight but I think Kohli has the fight and belief in him here to keep going.

[JNic]

1u-Ferrer -450 vs Monfils - I'm gonna go ahead and cash this real quick

[JNic]

YTD 10-8 +4.26u
Kohlschreiber +130 vs Querrey - win.
1u-Ferrer -450 vs Monfils - win

YTD 12-8 +5.78u (every single play will be 1u)
Vesnina +110 vs Barthel - Yes I look crazy backing Vesnina who is 0-6 in finals now but this is her moment. Vesnina maybe a choker but Barthel is also a choker. I watched Vesninas match with Stephens and she was tactically sound the whole match. Barthel can go on double fault runs sometimes and the difference in level of both of them in semis was big. I really think she's going to get her first title here, she's brought a new resurgence to her singles game to open up this year.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

thoughts on ferrer? can he lose today?

[JNic]

thoughts on ferrer? can he lose today?

Yea, Kohli is in very good form. I think Ferrer wins regardless but there is no point playing it. Just skip

[JNic]

YTD 12-8 +5.78u (every single play will be 1u)
Vesnina +110 vs Barthel - win

YTD 13-8 +6.88u
Parlay: Kamke -250 vs Cipolla/Dolgopolov -155 vs Monfils = +130 - I've had my eye on Kamke and Cipolla throughout last year and have seen one player making moves and the other beginning to fall off. Kamke is a pusher/ballbasher whatever you want to call it, what I noticed though is this guy is returning really really well, especially stepping in on his backhand. Cipolla likes to slice and dice and change the pace but this matchup doesn't work that well with Kamke. I think Kamke is gonna take him out in straights here, he's at a way higher level atm in my opinion compared to Cipolla, I know Cipolla can do some damage on the hardcourts but he can't really hit through Kamke and Kamke is going to eat up his serve. Monfils is getting way too much credit here, I've been all over his matches and while his serve looks tremendous and his head is in the right place I still think his game is not there. He fvkcs around on the baseline and decides to open up once in a while and pound some groundstrokes, Dolgo isn't afraid to go toe to toe serving wise with Monfils, I expect Dolgo to win in 3 or 4 here.
Sijsling +195 vs Istomin - Down under Istomin's pace and heavy serve are looking good in the heat, he's picking up some wins and while the guy's talent and potential are immense I need to fade him here. We haven't exactly seen him tested in any of his wins, Klizan came up with shit, Hewitt wasn't that good that day, that match with the Aussie was won completely through his serve and Verdasco completely mugged it up. I want to see Istomin under pressure, we haven't exactly seen him fully tested and Sijsling is the kind of guy that can do that. Sijsling keeps rising and rising and has quite the offensive game himself. Istomin also had some neck problem in his match vs Anderson and the guy can be very fragile, something i've noticed ever since he retired to Federer on some baby bs. I expect a tight match.