ATP: Shanghai Masters

[HeeeHAWWWW]

If he was only borderline fit he would surely have lost, so think you maybe dodged a bullet :-)

Federer-Murray in the 3rd is interesting. Fed has to win, Murray doesn't, but will Murray want to try knock him out now? Quite possibly the two that go through here will meet again in the final, and he knows he can beat Simon.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tomorrow's matches:

Tsonga-Djokovic
Davydenko-Del Potro

Will look more later, but thinking both dogs (Tsonga/Del Potro) are the way to go. Djokovic has nothing to play for & Tsonga has been playing tough even though he's been beat twice. If Del Potro plays anywhere close to the level he did against Tsonga, he should beat Davydenko. That one will be tough though since it's for a semis spot.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Federer is unwell:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/tennisNews/idUKLC05451720081112

Murray is a bad style match up for him, and will want to knock him out. On top of that, Murray was awesome today against Simon, totally outclassed him.

Only problem: Fed -133, Murray +120

[EaglesPhan36]

Roger needs to get a hotter girlfriend. That'll solve alot of his issues.


That Federer is a favorite against Murray is retarded. I'll pound that Murray line if it's that way when my book puts it up. No way in hell Murray lays down to let Federer advance. He doesn't seem to be that kind of player to me.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Murray line is dropping, be lucky to get +110 now.....

The promising thing for me is that Federer will take to court unless he's physically completely crocked - that retiral before the Blake match in Paris was the first time he's ever done that in his entire career, and he's never once retired once he's started a match. We saw it also when he lost to Fish at Miami (or Indian Wells?) - he played when he was obviously really unwell, sweating and unable to run properly.


Edit: went for Murray 2-0, at around +300. If Federer is unwell and substandard, that's highly likely the result given the way Murray has been playing. If he's recovered, it's still a decent bet. Combining the two makes it big value imo.

[meganie]

Somebody know what would happen, if Federer beats Murray and Simon beats Stepanek? Who would get the semi final spot, Federer or Simon?

And why did Stepanek fill in? He isn't near the top 8, wondering why Blake or Nalbandian or Ferrer or Wawrinka or... didn't play since they're ranked highest.

And another question: If Djokovic loses against Tsonga, will he be still the group winner? Because if not, he would want to play full against Tsonga to avoid playing against Murray. Same thing for Murray, if he loses against Federer.

[EaglesPhan36]

#1. I would assume Simon advances by verge of having beat Federer head-2-head in the Round Robin.

#2. They pick alternates prior to the tournament. They're supposed to be the next in the point standings, but from what I read everyone turned them down except for Stepanek & Kiefer.

#3. Djokovic is the top seed from that group regardless because he would hold a head-2-head advantage over either Del Potro or Davydenko having beaten both.

[meganie]

I found a source for my first question:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?p=1879890

So if Simon wins and Federer wins, all three have 2-1 W/L.
Murray (if Murray loses 0-2): 4-3 Sets
Federer(if Federer wins 2-0): 5-2
Simon (if Simon wins 2-0): 4-3

So if Federer wins he's qualified, because of better set winning percentage. And Murray would advance because of his h2h vs. Simon. But Federer would win the group and Murray would probably play against Djokovic.

Murray (if Murray loses 1-2): 5-3 Sets
Federer(if Federer wins 2-1): 5-3

If Murray loses 1-2, they both would qualifie, but they would have the same h2h and I don't know who would get the first place. I think probably Murray, if loses closely because of the game winning percentage.

If Djokovic loses (0-2) and Davydenko wins (2-0), who would be first, because they are tied at h2h? If we go with the sets, Davydenko should be first, because he would have a better setspercentage. So IF this rule applys, Davydenko could still win the group. And IF this applys, I guess Djokovic would want to win at least one set for winning the group.

[EaglesPhan36]

Really? Set percentage. That is pretty retarded. Head-2-head makes more sense to me.

[meganie]

Really? Set percentage. That is pretty retarded. Head-2-head makes more sense to me.

Set percentage only, if three players are tied, h2h, if two players are tied.

Guys, forget everything I said above, misunderstood something with the h2h (thought they mean overall h2h, not just the one meeting in the tournament).

So the thing is simple:
If Federer wins, no matter how, he's group winner. Murray advances.
If Murray wins, he's group winner. Simon advances, no matter if he wins or loses.
Djokovic is already group winner. The winner of Del Potro/Davydenko advances.

The full rules:

) The final standings of each group shall be determined by the first of the following methods that apply:
a) Greatest number of wins;
b) Greatest number of matches played;
c) Head-to-head results if only 2 players are tied, or if 3 players are tied, then:
i) If 3 players each have one win, a player having played less than all 3 matches is automatically eliminated and the player advancing to the Single Elimination competition is the winner of the match-up of the 2 players tied with 1-2 records; or
ii) Highest percentage of sets won; or
iii) Highest percentage of games won.
iv) If (i), (ii) or (iii) produce one superior player (first place), or one inferior player (third place), and the two remaining players are tied, the tie between those two players shall be broken by head-to-head record.

[meganie]

So the bottom line of this whole thing is:
- Djokovic has possibly no motivation of winning tomorrow's match.

- Murray has probably motivation winning his match against Federer to avoid playing Djokovic.
- Simon needs Murray to win to advance, otherwise he's out. There's no difference for him, if he loses or wins against Stepanek.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't see any angle in NOT taking Tsonga at + money tomorrow. He's beaten Djokovic twice in the past two months & probably wants to at least notch one win here while Djokovic as we mentioned is already through.

[meganie]

I don't see any angle in NOT taking Tsonga at + money tomorrow. He's beaten Djokovic twice in the past two months & probably wants to at least notch one win here while Djokovic as we mentioned is already through.

Definitely a great value pick here.

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY

Tsonga +185(Djokovic)
A price just too good to pass up on for a player who has already beaten this same opponent twice in the past two months. Seems as if Djokovic is getting over-valued here perhaps based more on Tsonga having two losses already here. That's fine with me. Tsonga has shown that his game is perfectly suited to beat Djokovic as the Frenchman clipped him in straight sets in Bangkok in September and then in 3 sets in Paris just a few weeks ago. Maybe a little suprising that his return game was what won those matches as he had a much better percentage of winners on 1st returns than Djokovic. Tsonga's serve won points, but wasn't dominant - so he proved he can do it without getting a ton of aces. I think Djokovic was a fortunate winner against Del Potro who did not have the dominate serve in that match that he found in beating Tsonga last time. Djokovic also could have lost to Davydenko - getting bageled in the 2nd set - but the Russian gave away the third set with an untimely double fault late in the match. Tsonga may have been just as unlucky in his first two. Losing a 3rd set tie break to Davydenko where Tsonga's return game wasn't quite up to snuff & dropping two tough tie breaking sets to Del Potro who had a wicked serve (17 aces). In the final analysis, Djokovic has ZERO to play for here. He's through as the top seed in this group. Tsonga also has little to play for other than pride, but that could be a bigger incentive than wanting to get through a match without fatiguing or injuring yourself like the Serb. Tsonga knows how to win against Djokovic and I look for him to try his hardest to leave Shanghai with at least one win to his credit.

Del Potro +130(Davydenko)
A value pick here as I think you'd want to go with the better price in what is a fairly even match-up. If Del Potro is anywhere close to his form against Tsonga where he hit for 17 aces and won 68% of his service points, he should win. If he falter more like his opener where he only won 56% of his service points, then the Russian could pounce and pick up the pieces. Expect tight sets and tie breaks, but Del Potro seems to have worked through the perverbial wall of fatigue if his last match is anything to go on and his toe seems less of a concern now than it was a couple weeks back.

I'm going with equal one unit bets on both, hoping one wins and turns a profit even if these go 1-1 overall.

[Spanks]

good luck

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

djokvic will beat tsonga easy

[Netprofit]

agreed with Tsonga

disagreed with Del Potro - he is a better shot maker and more talented, but Davydenko wins with consistency and attitude

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Davydenko would have won if he'd showed consistency against Djokovic, rather than choking at key points :-) He always seems to do that against the top guys - which Del Potro isn't yet.


Anyway, the Djokovic loss changes one thing: even if he goes on to win the tournament, and Federer loses tomorrow, he can't get the no2 spot this tournament. Might that affect Fed's motivation?

[meganie]

Davydenko would have won if he'd showed consistency against Djokovic, rather than choking at key points :-) He always seems to do that against the top guys - which Del Potro isn't yet.

Well said.

I like my Davydenko future so far, he's playing some great points.

[meganie]

Guys, anyone going with a Simon future? He's currently at +1900, which is kind of crazy, considering the fact that Fed needs to win over Murray and gets odds around +280.

I think he's got some chances, if he gets to the semi final. He beat Djokovic once this year and I'm still not very convinced about Djokovic's form.

And if Simon gets to the semi final, you could still make a Djokovic bet, so this could be a win-win situation.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Hrrm, nice idea. Is it definitely Simon vs Djoko though? Or has Davydenko won that group?

Simon vs Djoko - I'd take Simon to win that. Vs Davydenko would be about as 50/50 as you get, some looooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng rallies in that one.

Ok, sold. The futures market is all messed up - they think Federer and Djokovic are 2nd/3rd favourites. Personally I reckon Davy and Simon should be there. After Murray beats Fed tomorrow, Simon's odds will plummet.

[EaglesPhan36]

djokvic will beat tsonga easy

Uh huh

[meganie]

Hrrm, nice idea. Is it definitely Simon vs Djoko though? Or has Davydenko won that group?

No it's not, it could be Murray-Djokovic...if Murray loses tomorrow.

But yeah, Djokovic is definitely group winner.

Simon vs Djoko - I'd take Simon to win that. Vs Davydenko would be about as 50/50 as you get, some looooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng rallies in that one.

Yeah, IF Simon plays Djokovic, he could frustrate him sooner or later, I think. What I saw from Djokovic, he's still hit and miss sometimes, I guess, Simon COULD take at least one set.

Ok, sold. The futures market is all messed up - they think Federer and Djokovic are 2nd/3rd favourites. Personally I reckon Davy and Simon should be there. After Murray beats Fed tomorrow, Simon's odds will plummet.

The only question for me is: Will Murray play fully motivated? With Davydenko playing like today, I don't think he's the easier opponent for Murray. Maybe Murray thinks the same way and won't want to win tomorrow.

Federer's odds are one of the most inappropriate ones, I've seen. He has to win against maybe the strongest player in the field to even get to the semi final and with his health and injury issues he gets THESE odds?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The only question for me is: Will Murray play fully motivated? With Davydenko playing like today, I don't think he's the easier opponent for Murray. Maybe Murray thinks the same way and won't want to win tomorrow.

I have to imagine Murray's principle concern would be knocking out Federer while he has the chance. He knows he can beat Simon any day of the week, but if Fed gets through he could be physically fine for a potential (likely?) final rematch.

There's also the points issue - Murray is chasing Djokovic for no3 (I think he'll make it after the Aus Open), and the no2 spot isn't far ahead of that either. Each roundrobin is 100 points, which is a pretty chunky amount for a single match.

[EaglesPhan36]

My own opinion is that if any player starts thinking like we're suggesting - to lose to face someone else - they'll screw their momentum up. Murray of all people should keep the pedal to the metal. Don't find any reason not to take him over Federer as he at this stage of the season is a better player and probably the best player on tour. I'd take Murray even if he was the one favored here.

[meganie]

Let's hope you both are right.

GL to you, I'm on Murray for tomorrow too.

[meganie]

I think Bjorkman/Ullyett over Fyrstenberg/Matkowski at -130 is a good bet for tomorrow's doubles.
Bj/Ul were simply outclassed by Nestor/Zimonjic in the previous match. Bjorkman didn't manage to hold his serve in the first set plus Ullyett gave his service game away in the first game of the second set and that was enough for them to lose as they didn't manage to break.
The thing is, Fyrstenberg/Matkowski don't play at the same level as Nestor/Zimonjic do. That's at least what I saw in their match against Dlouhy/Paes. They both have pretty good serves, if they get the first serve in, it's pretty much a cheap point for them. But they didn't volley very well, they often stood at the baseline and tried to overpower their opponent with heavy ground strokes. This was enough against an out-of-form Dlouhy/Paes, who made too many errors themselves, but I think, if they do that against Bjorkman/Ullyett this won't work, since Bjorkman/Ullyett are on fire lately and I liked especially the way Ullyett volleyed a few times.
The question is, if Bjorkman/Ullyett can improve in their serve, they looked very breakable, if they bring in enough first serves, I expect them to hold their serve often enough and with the way they're volleying they could break Fyrstenberg/Matkowski a few times.

[wannabet]

My site finally put up some lines for this event. I don't think I will take any of them since of the next two matches, the best one is 30c difference between federer and murray. First is simon vs. stepanek. Am I right, the winner of that will move on to the knock out round if Federer loses, and if he wins, then Federer will move on? Murray, Djokovic, and Davydenko are all on to the semis. I've got Djokoci as the favorite to win, but I haven't seen any lines for futures on my site. Hoping they post soon.

[meganie]

My site finally put up some lines for this event. I don't think I will take any of them since of the next two matches, the best one is 30c difference between federer and murray. First is simon vs. stepanek. Am I right, the winner of that will move on to the knock out round if Federer loses, and if he wins, then Federer will move on? Murray, Djokovic, and Davydenko are all on to the semis. I've got Djokoci as the favorite to win, but I haven't seen any lines for futures on my site. Hoping they post soon.

So the bottom line of this whole thing is:
- Djokovic has possibly no motivation of winning tomorrow's match.

- Murray has probably motivation winning his match against Federer to avoid playing Djokovic.
- Simon needs Murray to win to advance, otherwise he's out. There's no difference for him, if he loses or wins against Stepanek.

If Murray wins:
Murray-Davydenko
Simon-Djokovic

If Federer wins:
Federer-Davydenko
Murray-Djokovic

Odds from bet365:
Andrew Murray +175
Roger Federer +240
Novak Djokovic +275
Nikolay Davydenko +550
Gilles Simon +1600

[wannabet]

Why are the sets betting so much better than picking head-head? For instance, I just selected Simon to win 2-1 & 2-0, in either case I will win the same amount. I would win a lot less if I simply select Simon to win head-head. Am I missing something there? Another way you could select federer to win 2-1 & 2-0 as well as selecting Murray to win, and you will make a little profit either, no matter who wins the match. I guess if Murray retires then you could lose out. Maybe people retire a lot in tennis, but I was pretty surprised how much different it is betting sets versus taking the head-head. Is the only reason that you could make so much more selecting 2-0&2-1 because you will lose if the opponent retires? Have you guys thought of that before??

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Is the only reason that you could make so much more selecting 2-0&2-1 because you will lose if the opponent retires? Have you guys thought of that before??

Most books void on a retiral at any time, so you wouldn't lose in that case. Pinnacle needs two sets for action though.

[wannabet]

I think I'd be scared of the rules on retiring. I just started placing a few small bets, and I lost on that 5th inning world series game, so I would have to be certain of the exact rules pertaining to sets betting etc. I really liked the Simon one, because I got very close to 2x as much as I would for just a straight-up head-head. I think I'm going to get a pinnacle account within a couple of months, that seems to have the best prices by far. two sets for action would be good for this because there was something about 1 set for action. Maybe they just changed it to two sets, which people were posting here about. Not sure if that was you or someone else, but I was def. surprised to get a much better price betting on both winning sets combinations on the same player. I would take the book price head- head on my site, not even close.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

A few of us put together a list of the rules on retiring:

http://www.rpoints.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=1022686&start=358

(need to register though)

If you think of a book that's missing from that list, give me a pm and I'll add it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Why are the sets betting so much better than picking head-head? For instance, I just selected Simon to win 2-1 & 2-0, in either case I will win the same amount. I would win a lot less if I simply select Simon to win head-head. Am I missing something there? Another way you could select federer to win 2-1 & 2-0 as well as selecting Murray to win, and you will make a little profit either, no matter who wins the match. I guess if Murray retires then you could lose out. Maybe people retire a lot in tennis, but I was pretty surprised how much different it is betting sets versus taking the head-head. Is the only reason that you could make so much more selecting 2-0&2-1 because you will lose if the opponent retires? Have you guys thought of that before??

If you're betting every possible angle on a match, there's not much profit to be made. If you're betting Murray +110, Federer 2-0 at about +175 and Federer 2-1 at +325 - here's your scenarios with one unit on each.

1. Murray wins. You lose two units on Fed & gain +1.10 on Murray. Net loss.

2. Federer wins 2-0. You win +1.75 and lost 2 units on Fed 2-1 & Murray straight up. Net loss.

3. Federer wins 2-1. You win +3.25, lose 2 units on the others. Net gain 1.25.

So you have a 33% chance of winning something off that set. That's not a good wager to me. IMO, you're better off making your pick of who you think wins & stick with it. Or you just take your stab at one try for the correct winner in the correct # of sets. Taking both Simon set prices at +105-ish and +320 doesn't do much for me either. Sure, if he goes 3 and you get the bigger win, then you make a profit. But if he wins in 2, you make +.05 units. That's why I think you just take your guy straight up if you think he's that solid of a bet. Again, this is also why I don't take faves past -170ish.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Well, no sign of Federer being sub standard.

Ungodly tennis from both of them though, what a match.