ATP: Shanghai Masters

[EaglesPhan36]

Still waiting for a book to post some futures prices. When I see that, I'll do a little break down if anyone cares. Looks like books are just starting to work on the lines for the first Round Robins.

1st Round Match-ups
Djokovic (SRB) v del Potro (ARG)
Davydenko (RUS) v Tsonga (FRA)
Federer (SUI) v Simon (FRA)
Murray (GBR) v Roddick (USA)

[meganie]

I've got some from bet365:

Roger Federer +138
Andrew Murray +250
Novak Djokovic +450
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +750
Juan Martin Del Potro +1400
Nikolay Davydenko +1600
Andy Roddick +1800
Gilles Simon +3300

[meganie]

Some thoughts on the matches? Didn't see write ups for Doha, maybe we can turn around your bad streak.

I'm pretty sure that I'm going with Murray and Daydenko for the first round.
Davydenko, if the price gets over +160 or +170. Tsonga is still a little streaky imo and Davydenko seems to get in form right in time.

Roddick and Simon seem to have no chance in their group. The other group is a lot tighter, you have basically 4 players at pretty much the same level at the moment. So I'm going with the highest value.

I think I'm going with Murray, I found +330 and Davydenko at +2400. If Davydenko makes it to semi final, I'm gonna secure it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I've passed on most of the Doha match-ups head-2-head. There haven't been alot of good prices to play single matches for me. Maybe the semis or final.

I'll have to start digging into the stats before I make any futures picks, but every price on the list you have - has some value in my opinion. Maybe even more so than the women in Doha, the men's tourney in Shanghai is pretty wide open. Only one I'm pretty sure I won't consider without even thinking about it is Djokovic. He's been shit down the stretch and I think he's probably the most gutless guy among the 8.

I can see taking 3 futures picks with varying levels of money wagered to try and get a profit.

[meganie]

I'll have to start digging into the stats before I make any futures picks, but every price on the list you have - has some value in my opinion. Maybe even more so than the women in Doha, the men's tourney in Shanghai is pretty wide open. Only one I'm pretty sure I won't consider without even thinking about it is Djokovic. He's been shit down the stretch and I think he's probably the most gutless guy among the 8.

Lol, that was my first thought too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Schedule of Play

SUNDAY
Djokovic -170 vs. Del Potro +160
Davydenko +140 vs. Tsonga -150

MONDAY
Federer vs. Simon
Murray vs. Roddick

Will update when I find Monday's prices.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The question of tiredness makes this really difficult for me. For example, Murray was a little fatigued in Paris and has played a lot recently. Simon also. Del Potro was exhausted in his match against Fat Dave.

Think I might watch and bet live. If Del Potro looks energetic he could easily beat Djokovic, who just sucks recently.

[EaglesPhan36]

MONDAY

Simon +600(Federer)
There is absolutely no reason that anyone in this Shanghai Masters event should be carrying a tag like this. All 8 guys here are fully capable of knocking each other off on any given day. And that includes Gilles Simon over Roger Federer. Simon will certainly be happy to be here after missing out on qualification for the event, only to get in when Nadal withdrew. Simon beat Federer in their only career meeting this summer in Toronto on the hard surface. Not suprisingly, it was a 3 setter. The match was tremendously even & really cemented Simon as a player on the ATP tour after his win at Indy the week prior to Toronto. Simon has kept pretty solid form down the stretch beating Nadal in Madrid and playing Murray tough in the final there. Federer for his part has been playing well lately, but withdrew from the Paris tourney with a back issue that I don't expect will have any lingering effect here. Simon's game seems suited well to play Federer if Federer is off his game any, Simon has a shot. He'll look for those long rallies & try to wear Federer down into making forehand mistakes. Federer certainly will be looking to make a statement at this event with a chance to end 2008 with a band and set the tone for 2009. He's been stellar at this event in the past, but we all know by now that this version of Roger Federer isn't quite the same as those in the past. And note that Federer while winning the event in 2007, did lose his first Round Robin match last year in Shanghai. Simon has a chance to further cement himself as a top 10 player to watch out for in 2009 & he should go all out here to try and do just that.

**A good backup to this bet would also be Federer in 3 sets (+325) if you have set betting available. Even if Simon loses, the Frenchman still has a solid shot to at least win one set off the Swiss**

[meganie]

MONDAY

Simon +600(Federer)

You got it back!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Nice one :-)

By the way, Murray wins the TMC. He's serving superbly, and when that happens he's near unbeatable.

[meganie]

Perferct start for my futures.
Added Tsonga at +2100 and Del Potro at +6400 for securing my Davydenko bet.
And I'm thinking about Federer at +350. Just don't know, if he can beat Murray. Did anyone see his match against Simon and can tell me, how he played? Did he make his usual backhand errors or was Simon just too good?

Forgot to mention that these odds are from betfair. You probably won't get these high odds for Tsonga and Del Potro at any bookie.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yee Haw! This was nice to wake up to!

Didn't see the match, so I can't provide any info there. Looks like his second serve from the numbers didn't help him much. Simon's stats just look solid.

[meganie]

Didn't see the match, so I can't provide any info there. Looks like his second serve from the numbers didn't help him much. Simon's stats just look solid.

Ok, read some posts from TI, Federer still seems to have issues with his back.

And the odds for Davydenko against Djokovic are currently +200, could be worth a small bet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hmmm. I really thought the back was going to be a non-factor. I skipped the futures bets and decided to just go match betting for this one. Not sure about anything tomorrow. I think I'd like Tsonga if the price was a little better. I'm still not sure Del Potro is healthy. Not sure about the other match. -215 is what I see for Djokovic and that is just too high for the way he's played here of late. Davydenko is probably worth a stab, but gotta think about it more.

[meganie]

Don't wanna open a new thread:
Nadal won't play Davis cup due to his knee injury.

I'm glad that I played Argentina earlier, the odds are now around -400. Considering to go big on them despite the odds, Spain winning seems to me impossible.

Edit:
I think the players will be:
Verdasco
Robredo/Ferrer
Verdasco & Lopez

Bench: Robredo/Ferrer/Lopez

vs.

Nalbandian
Del Potro
Nalbandian & Canas

Bench: Acasuso/Monaco/Schwank/Canas

Spain has probably the better doubles players and the better bench, other than that Argentina has clearly the edge.

[vanman]

Is there anybody in this tourney who hasn`t got an injury concern.?

[EaglesPhan36]

Only Del Potro & Federer have physical ailments that I am aware of. Any other player it is perceived fatigue.

That Argentina bet looks as solid as you can get. Although -400 is still a hefty price to bite.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yeah, I lumped on Argentina at -145 as soon as I heard that. They've moved to an indoor court too, where Del Potro/Nalbandian are are really happy. That's maybe not such a factor without Nadal though - obviously on clay he wins almost every time, but for the rest of the Spanish lineup maybe it isn't such a huge difference. Lopez might actually get a game too, especially instead of Robredo.

[meganie]

Yeah, I lumped on Argentina at -145 as soon as I heard that. They've moved to an indoor court too, where Del Potro/Nalbandian are are really happy. That's maybe not such a factor without Nadal though - obviously on clay he wins almost every time, but for the rest of the Spanish lineup maybe it isn't such a huge difference. Lopez might actually get a game too, especially instead of Robredo.

I agree mostly, though Nadal on carpet is still better than Robredo or especially Ferrer on that surface in their recent form imo.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yeah, definitely.

Also quite surprising how poor Verdasco's record is indoors. OK, he's not the best returner known to man, and can't volley well, but with the serve improvements he's made this year and THAT forehand there's potential there. He has the weapons to do well, but (rather like Almagro) it seems he just can't get out of a clay court mentality.

Saw him at St Petersburg, and Murray absolutely destroyed him. Bagel in the first set, then eased up. He did nothing in Paris/Madrid as well.

Of course, Verdasco is a raving lunatic and could probably beat anyone if his head was in the right place for more than an hour. The way he annihilated Berdych for two sets at Wimbledon was stunning, as was the way he fell apart in the next three.

[meganie]

Yeah, definitely.

Also quite surprising how poor Verdasco's record is indoors. OK, he's not the best returner known to man, and can't volley well, but with the serve improvements he's made this year and THAT forehand there's potential there. He has the weapons to do well, but (rather like Almagro) it seems he just can't get out of a clay court mentality.

Saw him at St Petersburg, and Murray absolutely destroyed him. Bagel in the first set, then eased up. He did nothing in Paris/Madrid as well.

Of course, Verdasco is a raving lunatic and could probably beat anyone if his head was in the right place for more than an hour. The way he annihilated Berdych for two sets at Wimbledon was stunning, as was the way he fell apart in the next three.

Yeah, his mental weakness is definitely a problem. E.g. in Paris against Robredo, he should've won that match with ease in straight, but started to choke when he had to close it out. Numerous other matches where he did a similar thing.
That's probably the reason, why players like Simon get to the Masters and Blake or Verdasco don't. They've got no fighting mentality.

Tomorrow I'm going with Davydenko at +200. Djokovic had one decent match the whole month and gets these crazy odds against a quality player, who is obviously finding his form again. And in this one decent match he still allowed 5 breakpoints and lost 36% of his serving points. He was somehow between genius and insanity, he made some beautiful points, followed by horrible mistakes. There is definitely value in backing Davydenko imo.

I'm not sure about the Del Potro match. The odds seem to be a little bit exaggerated, but his motivation and health is a concern to me.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

With you there - fading Djokovic has been a good ploy for ages :-)

I'll also be on Tsonga. DP is dead on his feet.

[EaglesPhan36]

TUESDAY

Davydenko +175(Djokovic)
Again, just no reasoning for lines like this among a group of very even players. Djokovic beat a hurt & fatigued Del Potro in his first match here. Del Potro was pedestrian with his serve & Djokovic had little problem winning points off his serve, while protecting his own. For Djokovic, it was his first Shanghai win in 4 matches, so that was a plus. Still, beating a player who definitely appears to be less than 100% doesn't inspire the confidence that a player at -200 or more should be at. Prior to the win, Djokovic had a pair of forgettable indoor tourneys in Paris & Madrid, losing in the 2nd round in both to the big serves of Tsonga & Karlovic. Davydenko meanwhile seems to be surging at the right time after a pretty poor summer. The Russian came back in Paris after a wrist injury in Russia the week before & proved his health with a run to the semis where he lost to an in-form Nalbandian. His first round match here was impressive as he outlasted the in-form Paris Champ, Tsonga, in a 3 set grinder. Particularly nice to see was his serve picking up 11 aces and winning 87% of his 1st serve points & 73% of his service points in all. He did an admirable job returning Tsonga's wicked serve, by winning 40% of the points off his opponent. If Davydenko can continue his form that led him through Paris and here to Shanghai, there's no reason to believe he won't have a chance to pull off a win over Djokovic here with the winner likely cementing a spot in the semifinals.

[WestsidePete]

Excellent selection with Simon....I also took him and Roddick, figuring at least one dog would win....Like the Joker to go down to Davy and Tsonga to pull through

2 units on Tsonga -155
1 unit on Davydenko +170

[EaglesPhan36]

Del Potro beats Tsonga in straights, 7-6, 7-6. Del Potro had 17 aces! Tsonga's serve not as crispy as usual apparently being the big difference.

Djokovic/Davydenko in the 3rd set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Davydenko choked late and got broke when it was 5-5. Djokovic wins in 3. 7-6, 0-6, 7-5.

[meganie]

Damn, why didn't I go with Del Potro?

No singles for me tomorrow, just two doubles:
Bjorkman/Ullyett over Nestor/Zimonjic +120
Fyrstenberg/Matkowski over Dlouhy/Paes -140

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Irritating matches today :-(

Tsonga's backhand completely self-destructed, he could barely keep the ball in court. Something like 21 errors off that side - for a few games Del Potro was just winning every point by patting the ball to that side, and Tsonga would dump it in the net or wildly punt it out of court. Really bad tactics too - everybody knows that the low slice is how you trouble Del Potro, yet he almost never used it, even during the periods where he couldn't hit a topspin backhand anywhere near the court.

The Djoko-Davydenko match was bizarre:

First set very high quality, Fixer gets a break up, then chokes when serving for the set. Goes to tiebreaker, he chokes again, doublefaults to lose it.

Second set Davydenko goes mental, and wins it 6-0.

Third set very tight, gets to 5-5, Davydenko chokes and throws it away.


Djokovic was OK, very good at times. However, Davydenko was clearly the better player, especially in that 2nd. Loser :-(

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn, why didn't I go with Del Potro?

No singles for me tomorrow, just two doubles:
Bjorkman/Ullyett over Nestor/Zimonjic +120
Fyrstenberg/Matkowski over Dlouhy/Paes -140

Don't think many saw Del Potro raising his play up as much as he did today. From his last couple matches, he looked gassed & the toe was a major concern.

I'm sniffing around tomorrow. The trigger finger is thinking about Roddick straight up with a Federer set bet to cover the opposite side. Roddick's got the win over him this year and I just don't see how Fed is a -400 favorite at this point.

[meganie]

Don't think many saw Del Potro raising his play up as much as he did today. From his last couple matches, he looked gassed & the toe was a major concern.

I'm sniffing around tomorrow. The trigger finger is thinking about Roddick straight up with a Federer set bet to cover the opposite side. Roddick's got the win over him this year and I just don't see how Fed is a -400 favorite at this point.

It's about value, which I saw in Del Potro, but didn't pull the trigger, because most people saw Tsonga winning. And I didn't see Tsonga's match against Davydenko, so I couldn't rate his performance.

If there's a single match with value tomorrow, it's probably Roddick's. Federer gets these odds, because he's Federer. Same thing for Nadal on hard recently.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well everything I had read about the Tsonga-Davydenko match made it out that Davydenko played exceptionally well and Tsonga also played pretty well, but not good enough to win. I liked Tsonga too, but I didn't like him at -160 or so. Might have bit at -130, but that wasn't happening thankfully!

[WestsidePete]

Excellent selection with Simon....I also took him and Roddick, figuring at least one dog would win....Like the Joker to go down to Davy and Tsonga to pull through

2 units on Tsonga -155
1 unit on Davydenko +170

fukk me

[EaglesPhan36]

WEDNESDAY

Roddick +320(Federer)
As long as the books want to continue to value Roger Federer at his 2007 prices, I think you have to take a shot at the underdog here. Roddick wasn't great against Murray by any means, but still found a way to take a set in his opener in Shanghai. Roddick MUST find his serve however. Not that it didn't win points, but it was not dominant. Just 3 aces. He needs to have it working at that fear factor level that produces double digit aces and makes returns almost impossible to win against Federer. Fed for his part will have to put the Simon match behind him and not question himself even after a slew of unforced errors and solid play from the Frenchman doomed the Swiss in his Shanghai opener. Fed's serve itself was pretty average and will need improvement to take out Roddick. Fed won just 62% of his service points, well below his average of 70% for the year. This court will be slower than the Miami surface that A-Rod took Federer out on in March, but his game needs to be similar. Roddick pounded 17 aces and did an adequate job returning, winning 30% of the points. The price of -400 on Federer with his form here at the end of the year is ridiculous, so Roddick is worth the hail mary chance here. And don't think that Roddick isn't gonna be pumped for the chance to KO Federer from Shanghai with a win here. That would send Fed packing from this tournament for the first time EVER in the Round Robin stages. For those of you prone to covering yourself, I might also suggest taking Federer in 3 sets at +285 for a half unit to cover a one unit bet on Roddick. Federer could very well win if Roddick can't find his serve, but I'd find it hard for him to do it in straight sets.

I'm not doing it, but intriguing prices to take Simon or Murray in 3 sets in the other match.

Simon +600
Murray +285

[WestsidePete]

Agree...one unit on roddick +350 to take out fed in this one

[EaglesPhan36]

Roddick pulled out after spraining his ankle in practice. Stepanek stepped in. Federer beat Stepanek in straights. At least the wagers got cancelled. Disappointing though not to see Roddick get a shot.