The more I look at the math behind the claims of all these Matchbook players who claim to make thousands weekly (total - not just at Matchbook, I understand this) - the more it makes no sense at all.
Indulge me please..
Lets assume that "thousands" to be $2,000 a week. The first plural thousand.
1) If you are betting and winning at a clip that allows you to make $2,000 a week - you are so good that you could bet at ANY book that pays you and your money is safe and wont cut you off. So that obviously isnt the point here.
2) The other option is scalping/arbing. Assuming the average scalp to be a 4% total profit potential. (And that is very generous - And I do have experience with this as on the website I operate, we have an arb finder program that constantly posts up current odds - and Most are between 1 and 5%). So if we are dealing with E/+104. You will make 2% on either side. Thus meaning you would need to wager $200,000 a week, $100k total on winning sides, 100k on losing side (+/-) Adjustments.
I see alot of problems with this.
1) How many arbs are available per day where you can get good money down? 3? 4? - 20 for the week?
2) You will need to get $5,000 to $10,000 down per side, per game to make this kind of money. The problems here are: What books will allow you to make those kind of wagers? Im interested to know. 5 dimes wont, Bet Jamaica wont, SIA, BetEd, etc.. all no. Bet US, nope. So as you eliminate books that take this kind of action - that limits your arb opportunities. And the fact that everyone is upset about Matchbook means they are US players and cant use the Euro outlets that dont allow us. If so many people are hitting this same arb for the money necessary to make thousands a week, and the margin is so small, the lines are going to move.
5) The timing of getting these huge plays in is absurd. What if you find them - then by the time you get the other in - the original has changed? If 100 guys on this site are making thousands a week - the amount being wagered on each side is crazy. And its all about getting there first.
4) Money movement - Because it wont be perfect - you cant put 20k into one book, lose a 10k wager, then win a 10k wager, then lose a 10k wager. You will zero accounts, and end up with huge sums in other accounts. This will not now allow you to wager at the accounts that you lost in. Thus, you will now have to withdraw. Assuming you lost 20k from one account and it ended up in another, you now have to roll your winnings over to be able to use book to book (or pay a fee which would eat away at the profits). You can roll over safely because you are arbing - but again its not an exact science knowing which side would win. So you would need another extreme amount of money sitting it your bank account - so you can fund the accounts that goto zero. So how do you make these 20k (or more) withdrawals? Check? Wire? That wouldnt set off any bells. How do you make these deposits? Go to 30 different Money Gram locations and send $700 each to Lucia Suarez Navarro and her 29 family members? Send a few 10k or 20k international wires a week? The P2P money transfer is not feasible. The wire would take 3-4 days, this eliminating that book from arb opportunities, and the B2B would require at least another bet or two to roll over the money!
Seems to me like you would need a bankroll of about $500,000. To keep all your accounts funded, and then free cash to refund the ones you lose at while you are waiting to fund them again.
1) Would you be willing to risk that kind of capital at offshore outlets that can go from A+ books to not paying in a matter or a few months? (See WSEX)
2) The money movement of $20k, 50k a week thru your US accounts would set off bells.
3) Couldnt you find something much better to do with your 500k? I know I certainly could.
If someone said they were making $200 a week doing this - very believable. Because you could put $5k in each account, and not zero them quickly.
Im certainly not one.. But to all you millionaires.. congrats.
Indulge me please..
Lets assume that "thousands" to be $2,000 a week. The first plural thousand.
1) If you are betting and winning at a clip that allows you to make $2,000 a week - you are so good that you could bet at ANY book that pays you and your money is safe and wont cut you off. So that obviously isnt the point here.
2) The other option is scalping/arbing. Assuming the average scalp to be a 4% total profit potential. (And that is very generous - And I do have experience with this as on the website I operate, we have an arb finder program that constantly posts up current odds - and Most are between 1 and 5%). So if we are dealing with E/+104. You will make 2% on either side. Thus meaning you would need to wager $200,000 a week, $100k total on winning sides, 100k on losing side (+/-) Adjustments.
I see alot of problems with this.
1) How many arbs are available per day where you can get good money down? 3? 4? - 20 for the week?
2) You will need to get $5,000 to $10,000 down per side, per game to make this kind of money. The problems here are: What books will allow you to make those kind of wagers? Im interested to know. 5 dimes wont, Bet Jamaica wont, SIA, BetEd, etc.. all no. Bet US, nope. So as you eliminate books that take this kind of action - that limits your arb opportunities. And the fact that everyone is upset about Matchbook means they are US players and cant use the Euro outlets that dont allow us. If so many people are hitting this same arb for the money necessary to make thousands a week, and the margin is so small, the lines are going to move.
5) The timing of getting these huge plays in is absurd. What if you find them - then by the time you get the other in - the original has changed? If 100 guys on this site are making thousands a week - the amount being wagered on each side is crazy. And its all about getting there first.
4) Money movement - Because it wont be perfect - you cant put 20k into one book, lose a 10k wager, then win a 10k wager, then lose a 10k wager. You will zero accounts, and end up with huge sums in other accounts. This will not now allow you to wager at the accounts that you lost in. Thus, you will now have to withdraw. Assuming you lost 20k from one account and it ended up in another, you now have to roll your winnings over to be able to use book to book (or pay a fee which would eat away at the profits). You can roll over safely because you are arbing - but again its not an exact science knowing which side would win. So you would need another extreme amount of money sitting it your bank account - so you can fund the accounts that goto zero. So how do you make these 20k (or more) withdrawals? Check? Wire? That wouldnt set off any bells. How do you make these deposits? Go to 30 different Money Gram locations and send $700 each to Lucia Suarez Navarro and her 29 family members? Send a few 10k or 20k international wires a week? The P2P money transfer is not feasible. The wire would take 3-4 days, this eliminating that book from arb opportunities, and the B2B would require at least another bet or two to roll over the money!
Seems to me like you would need a bankroll of about $500,000. To keep all your accounts funded, and then free cash to refund the ones you lose at while you are waiting to fund them again.
1) Would you be willing to risk that kind of capital at offshore outlets that can go from A+ books to not paying in a matter or a few months? (See WSEX)
2) The money movement of $20k, 50k a week thru your US accounts would set off bells.
3) Couldnt you find something much better to do with your 500k? I know I certainly could.
If someone said they were making $200 a week doing this - very believable. Because you could put $5k in each account, and not zero them quickly.
Im certainly not one.. But to all you millionaires.. congrats.
