I asked Copilot AI how it would have worke out if we bet every draw Bet365 offered over the last 12 months to see if we can get an approx loss % to aim for.
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You might be able to improve the loss % by only betting draws up to odds of +240 (or a figure you choose)
You can probably even turn the loss rate into a win rate if you want to get serious about it. (and if DSI allow you to keep doing it long enough without limiting you further)
But if we are talking about $2000 starting roll, it should only be $100 odd difference in outcome whatever you do to select the best matches... so maybe just go hard and get it done as fast as possible?
Here's a breakdown of the soccer leagues with the highest percentage of drawn matches, based on recent full-time draw statistics: Top Leagues by Draw PercentageThese leagues consistently produce a high number of draws, making them potentially more favorable for draw betting strategies. Lower-scoring leagues or those with evenly matched teams tend to have more stalemates.1 Singapore S-League 66.67% 2 Saudi Arabia Division 1 66.67% 3 Scotland Premiership 54.55% 4 Bahrain Premier League 50.00% 5 Scotland Championship 45.45% 6 Italy Serie B 45.00% 7 Albania Super Liga 44.44% 8 Iran Azadegan League 44.44% 9 Egypt Premier League 44.00% 10 France Ligue 2 42.86%
⚽ Average Draw Odds by LeagueStrategic TakeawaySingapore S-League 3.20 – 3.50 High draw rate, but low liquidity can affect odds. Saudi Arabia Division 1 3.30 – 3.60 Often undervalued due to less global attention. Scotland Premiership 3.10 – 3.40 Competitive matches, especially mid-table clashes. Bahrain Premier League 3.40 – 3.70 Smaller market, odds vary widely by bookmaker. Scotland Championship 3.20 – 3.50 Known for tight contests and unpredictable outcomes. Italy Serie B 3.00 – 3.30 Defensive style contributes to frequent draws. Albania Super Liga 3.30 – 3.60 Limited data, but draw odds tend to be generous. Iran Azadegan League 3.40 – 3.70 High draw rate, but odds fluctuate due to volatility. Egypt Premier League 3.10 – 3.40 Balanced league with frequent stalemates. France Ligue 2 3.00 – 3.30 One of the most consistent leagues for draw betting. - Higher draw rates don’t always mean better odds—bookmakers adjust for trends.
- France Ligue 2 and Italy Serie B are popular among draw bettors for their consistency and relatively stable odds.
- Smaller leagues like Bahrain or Iran may offer higher odds but come with more volatility and less reliable data.
If you’re thinking about building a draw-betting model or want to simulate returns based on these odds, I can help you crunch the numbers or even identify specific teams with high draw tendencies. Just say the word.
yes please do that for me
You got it, Opti. Let’s build a simple simulation to estimate how profitable a draw-betting strategy could be if you focused on teams with the highest draw rates. I’ll use real data fromFootyStats to guide this.
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From what I can tell, DSI isn't offering all these lower level leagues (at least in my account). Attached is what appears to be my only choices. At a 4% neg EV, I suspect the bankroll will be chewed up by the time the rollover is complete. My sample size will be so dang large that I will definitely progress towards the expected value.
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I guess you are right. 30k of bets with 5% loss wont leave you with much.Originally posted by tklemansFrom what I can tell, DSI isn't offering all these lower level leagues (at least in my account). Attached is what appears to be my only choices. At a 4% neg EV, I suspect the bankroll will be chewed up by the time the rollover is complete. My sample size will be so dang large that I will definitely progress towards the expected value.
But I would not take the AI analysis as gospel numbers. Just posted it to help give an idea why draws are a better target for this sort of rollover than other markets. I 'think' you will find it does better than that in real life.
Plus I don't really have any other good idea
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