After going 5-0 last night in Brazil's B league (picks posted on zizoudane10's thread well before the games started), i decided to share my pick's for tonights games. Beware that Brazil is a particularly crazy league where anything can happen and seems much more unpredictable than other leagues.
For tonight:
Flamengo vs Ponte Preta - over 2.5. Ponte preta's last 8 away games have had 3 goals or more. Flamengo's home games can go either way, with a few matches ending with 1 or 2 goals but plenty having 4 or more. Going with the over based on Ponte Preta's recent form
Nautico pk vs Vasco da Gama - Nautico sits at the middle of the table (10th) but they are actually 5th best at home. Vasco has a decent record away but they have lost their last 3 away and have only one win in their last 6 games overall.
Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro = Atl Min pk/-0.5 and over 2 and 2.5 goals - Atletico leads the league and has been playing great. They have the second best record away from home and face Bahia, who has the third worst record at home and only 2 wins in 11 home games. By getting the pk and -0.5, i see it as getting almost a freeroll, in that we're either getting a half loss if they tie or a full win if Atletico wins, very unlikely to see a win for Bahia there. As for the over, it's one of the more "iffy" bets of the day. Both teams have had few goals overall but Atletico has seen an uplift of goals when facing the weaker teams on the road (they have a 4-1 win at Recife and a 4-3 win at Figueirense). As for Bahia, the best they faced at home was Vasco da Gama (4th in the league) in a game that ended 2-1.
For tonight:
Flamengo vs Ponte Preta - over 2.5. Ponte preta's last 8 away games have had 3 goals or more. Flamengo's home games can go either way, with a few matches ending with 1 or 2 goals but plenty having 4 or more. Going with the over based on Ponte Preta's recent form
Nautico pk vs Vasco da Gama - Nautico sits at the middle of the table (10th) but they are actually 5th best at home. Vasco has a decent record away but they have lost their last 3 away and have only one win in their last 6 games overall.
Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro = Atl Min pk/-0.5 and over 2 and 2.5 goals - Atletico leads the league and has been playing great. They have the second best record away from home and face Bahia, who has the third worst record at home and only 2 wins in 11 home games. By getting the pk and -0.5, i see it as getting almost a freeroll, in that we're either getting a half loss if they tie or a full win if Atletico wins, very unlikely to see a win for Bahia there. As for the over, it's one of the more "iffy" bets of the day. Both teams have had few goals overall but Atletico has seen an uplift of goals when facing the weaker teams on the road (they have a 4-1 win at Recife and a 4-3 win at Figueirense). As for Bahia, the best they faced at home was Vasco da Gama (4th in the league) in a game that ended 2-1.
