The Italian Job

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Not good at all.

Guidolin said, "We didn't do anything to win the match. We are so lucky to get a tie."

??? When he said this?
He said something like "I'm not disappointed of course, because a 1-1 on the road is a positive outcome, but I'm a little bit worried too. Honestly, we have to say we didn't deserve the win, we had the best goal chances but we made too many mistakes on the passing game and Braga is for sure ahead of us phisically. We have to step up. Anyway since now we'll start to think about Fiorentina."

He said they made too many mistakes to win the game, not they didn't do anything to win or they were lucky to got a tie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDcjwhUbbwg&feature=relmfu

I think he was very angry with the team.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Latest news on today's matches:
Di Natale likely to start from the bench for Udinese, Jovetic will play for Fiorentina but his future in Viola is still hanging by a thread.
Parma with many absents and a lot of problems on defense.

[hotelis]

hi analyst.my bookie offers a LIVE risk free bet on A serie matches. i couldnt gather from your thread any picks i might take. And also, i have no idea about Italian soccer whatsoever. ( all i know is Toldo was my favourite goal keeper lol ) can you please recommend something for fiorentina match? ( if Juve match is to be avoided)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

hi analyst.my bookie offers a LIVE risk free bet on A serie matches. i couldnt gather from your thread any picks i might take. And also, i have no idea about Italian soccer whatsoever. ( all i know is Toldo was my favourite goal keeper lol ) can you please recommend something for fiorentina match? ( if Juve match is to be avoided)

Do you have to place it today or the offer will be valid tomorrow? Because it could be interesting a bet on Inter Milan to win in Pescara if the game will be still tied at around 25'-30'...

[hotelis]

<br>oh well, too late, took fiorentina - udinese under 0.5 HT. thanks anyway

[BHS]

??? When he said this?
He said something like "I'm not disappointed of course, because a 1-1 on the road is a positive outcome, but I'm a little bit worried too. Honestly, we have to say we didn't deserve the win, we had the best goal chances but we made too many mistakes on the passing game and Braga is for sure ahead of us phisically. We have to step up. Anyway since now we'll start to think about Fiorentina."

He said they made too many mistakes to win the game, not they didn't do anything to win or they were lucky to got a tie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDcjwhUbbwg&feature=relmfu

I think he was very angry with the team.

That's what I've read on La Gazzetta Dello Sports.

Sei italiano? Di dove sei?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

That's what I've read on La Gazzetta Dello Sports.

Sei italiano? Di dove sei?

Italiano al 100%
Reggio Emilia, 60km a NW di Bologna, la conosci?
E tu? Sei italiano o hai vissuto qui?

[Vaughany]

Livorno take the lead against 10 men

[Vaughany]

3-1 Livorno BOSH

[TheSportsAnalyst]

3-1 Livorno BOSH

Congrats Pal.

Not a bad start for the thread I think.


My picks record:

2 W - 1 L - 2 P (66.67% SR)
+0.98u (+32.67% Yield)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

6. Atalanta v Lazio (Serie A)
Pick: Lazio +0.25 @1.86 (12Bet)

Market is moving on the opposite side and many experts don't like Lazio, especially after their effort in Europa League just a couple of days ago.
Actually this is a very risky pick because Atalanta, especially at home, is a very tough team and they didn't change much from last year great team, while Lazio still have some question marks.
On paper this seems (to me) like a low-scoring 1X2 type of game, quite unpredictable but probably boring.
Even the recent H2H in Bergamo is pretty much 33%-33%-33%.
Following my reasoning I expected Lazio straight win to be offered around 2.90/3.00 at best, not 3.25 and more...
Draw alert very high. Storm forecasted for this night so probably the pitch could be bad tomorrow.

7. Pescara v Inter (Serie A)
Pick: Inter -0.5 @1.88 (PinnacleSports)

Another risky bet but Inter impressed me against Vaslui and maybe Pescara is a little bit overrated despite having lost Verratti, Insigne, Immobile, Sansovini and coach Zeman.
This is a very interesting match for betting purposes because Pescara didn't play against Inter in Serie A since 1992 (20 years ago) and I see some difficulties by the bookies on identifying the real value of the home team for this season opener.
I see Inter as a clear, clear fav for this match but I don't underrate "Adriatico" impact on players on the field so I don't advise to bet strong on this one.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

8. Chievo v Bologna (Serie A)
Pick: Under 2.25 @1.78 (BetVictor)

Two teams with a lot of unexposed players and another match with the draw alert at max level.
Last 6 away games of 2011/2012 for Bologna went under 2.5 and Chievo went under this mark 7 times out of the last 8 home matches of last season.
Last 10 years record for this matchup is 7 O 11 U with the latter well over the 60% mark.
But the most interesting trend is the one about past H2H in Verona: since Chievo popped out in Serie A in 2001 they met Bologna at home 9 times and 8 matches went under. Not enough? 4 of this games had 0 or just one goal scored.
In 2011 Bologna defeated Chievo 1-0 at Bentegodi.

[nyyanks773]

My line on inter moved from -120 to +101 today ... .. penso che la camorra piace il X ... haha... ho bisogno a practicare il mio italiano

[TheSportsAnalyst]

penso che la camorra piace il X

Hahahahahaha!!!

[nyyanks773]

haha guess not, 2-0 inter already! unless it ends 2-2 haha

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I close the weekend with a very good night, 2 full hits and a half win.

4.5 W - 1 L - 2.5 P (81.82% SR)
+3.11u (+56.55% Yield)

[BigBurk]

It's always safer to bet in Italian and Spanish League over German and Dutch League.

Less surprises.

Do you really believe this?

[Vaughany]

Great job buddy!

2 hits and one push for me on Italian football. Made a few hundred more from Everton winning and WBA drawing at Tottenham.

12:54pm 24-Aug-12

25-Aug-12

Soccer Handicap

Empoli (+0) vs Reggina for Game.

-127

100.00

Cancelled

12:54pm 24-Aug-12

11:44am 25-Aug-12

Soccer Handicap

Juve Stabia vs Livorno (+0) for Game.

+173

200.00

346.00

4:31pm 24-Aug-12

26-Aug-12

Soccer 1X2

Pescara vs Inter Milan for Game.

-115

250.00

217.39

[BHS]

Do you really believe this?

Yes, so are all the bookies.

Just like Argentinian league too. Anybody could beat anybody in German, Dutch (few exceptions), Argentinian leagues. That's why odds are so much higher than the ones in La Liga or Serie A.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Yes, so are all the bookies.

Just like Argentinian league too. Anybody could beat anybody in German, Dutch (few exceptions), Argentinian leagues. That's why odds are so much higher than the ones in La Liga or Serie A.

The difference IMHO is all about the top clubs.
In Italy there are (politically and not only) just five clubs, Inter, Milan, Juve, Roma, Lazio (six if we include Napoli, they say they're persecuted but imho it's all in their mind).
All the matches which not include this top 6 clubs could end in every possible way (bc of the mafia or the chance, doesn't matter).
And the more you goes down (up to Prima Divisione, because Seconda isn't offered by asian bookies and it doesn't have appeal) the worst you could see.
Probably around 60% of Prima Divisione matches are fixed (because of common interests, betting purposes, willing of the players to force the board to sack the manager or to pay the wages...).
I'll try to explain you how it works during this season.

But yes, IMHO betting on italian football it's even easier when matches are fixed but of course if you don't know anyone involved you've to understand the signals in order to be on the right side...

[BHS]

Italiano al 100%
Reggio Emilia, 60km a NW di Bologna, la conosci?
E tu? Sei italiano o hai vissuto qui?

Sono Italiano, di Milan ma io vivo a New York ora.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Sono Italiano, di Milan ma io vivo a New York ora.

Beato te!

[Vaughany]

That's what I've read on La Gazzetta Dello Sports.

Sei italiano? Di dove sei?

BHS, Im thinking of going with Kayserispor PK at +128 today, what you think about this?

[BHS]

Ehh.. Nobody really knows about this match, not even coaches.

They are playing in Antalya and it's very hot and humid there. Plus, field is really really bad. Everybody said federation shouldnt have let them play on that field but Kayseri pick is pretty good for that odds.

[Vaughany]

Ehh.. Nobody really knows about this match, not even coaches.

They are playing in Antalya and it's very hot and humid there. Plus, field is really really bad. Everybody said federation shouldnt have let them play on that field but Kayseri pick is pretty good for that odds.

yeah just saw the photos on Kayserispor website which shows the pitch condition. Looks really bad like you say! Think I may stay away from this one

[Vaughany]

yeah just saw the photos on Kayserispor website which shows the pitch condition. Looks really bad like you say! Think I may stay away from this one

ha glad I stayed away...3-0 thrashing!

[BHS]

Yeah. Those games are really dangerous. I watched the first half, i thought it was going to end 0-0. Those games are not predictable at all.

[BHS]

Beato te!

Udinese - Braga?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I respect Udinese a lot but this match is a no play for me.
If I had a gun at my head I'll lean Braga (+0.50 or X2) but I don't see any value... @1.85/-120 could be somewhat interesting (of course only with a gun in front of me) but not at this price.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

The match I like the most in CL tonight is Anderlecht v AEL.

AEL +1.25 is offered @-123 on Pinny (and -120 on the asians).
I mean, Anderlecht is very overrated and in Jupiler League have still to face competitive teams like Bruges, Standard, Gent. They didn't impressed in their first 5 matches at all.
AEL was dog (!!!) at home on the first leg and won 2-1 dominating the game (even if 11 v 10) and showing no fear.
They're not there by chance (a double 1-0 against Partizan is simply impressive) and a +1.25 means 1/2 win even with a loss by 1 goal (and offered with reasonable juice).

Maybe this game will end 3/4-0 but I don't think so.

[Vaughany]

yeah agree the +1.25 AEL is probably most attractive play right now. Anderlecht need to win 1-0 to go through right? So even if they do take the lead, they may then just play defensive and hold out for the 1-0

[Vaughany]

I respect Udinese a lot but this match is a no play for me.
If I had a gun at my head I'll lean Braga (+0.50 or X2) but I don't see any value... @1.85/-120 could be somewhat interesting (of course only with a gun in front of me) but not at this price.

I only just realised how many players Guidolin rested for the Fiorentina game. Armero, Di Natale, Benatia, Basta.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

An Italian sports program just showed the different approaches to this evening match.
Udinese and Guidolin are very sensitive and concentrated, a lot of pressure on them.
Braga is training in Udine with a lot of joy in players eyes and even their coach seems very queit and faithful for tonight knockout game.

This could be Udinese lineup:
Brkic, Benatia, Danilo, Domizzi; Basta, Pinzi, Willians, Pereyra, Armero; Fabbrini, Di Natale.

[BHS]

Guidolin said that this is the most important match in his career.

I think Udinese will beat Braga today and they will finally be able to play in Champions League.

[Vaughany]

SportsAnalyst....do you know if any of Reggina's key players will be back such as Colombo, Bonnazoli, Stuani for game against Pro Vercelli this wknd (I cant see any info on their website)? Thinking of playing Reggina straight up or at least putting the PK at -275 in a parlay.

I've put a small play on Spezia +0.5 at +102 so far. I know Verona has one of the strongest teams on paper but Spezia also look very solid this season even if more than half their squad is made up of young players on loan. Sammarco in centre mid is a great signing and could be one of best and most consistent midfielders in the league if he stays fit. And obviously they have one of the best forwards in the league in Sansovini, and Pichlmann is going to be motivated to to get on the score sheet against his former club. Then they've got Okaka and Evacuo who aren't bad players to bring on up front if needed. Di Gennaro has always been an awesome talent and this could be his breakout year this season...another great talent. Then the likes of Porcari, Andrea Bovo, Garofalo, Goian, Benedetti, and Schiavi are all solid signings. I'll be really surprised if Spezia don't finish in top 4 this season even though they are newly promoted. Will be betting on them a lot in home games for sure...they've got Brescia at home on 9th Sept...could be a big play for me!

Also considering play Juve Stabia PK or +0.5 away at Brescia. After watching the highlights of the Livorno game we actually got quite lucky with that bet as Juve Stabia could of scored at least 2 or 3 in the first half, and then the Jidayi sending off helped tremendously in second-half. If not for that it could well of ended 1-1

Modena PK and Varese PK are other ones Im considering but I dont really wanna be betting on away teams too much!