★ computer generated totals ★

tukkk · 07-25-12, 04:38 AM

0-3 yesterday, lol

tukkk · 07-25-12, 07:55 AM

Pending :
25.07 Brazil Ser A Figueirense Internacional RS over 2,25 @ 1,85 0,49%
27.07 Norwegian T Stromsgodset Fredrikstad over 3,25 @ 2,17 1,24%
27.07 Irish Div1 SD Galway Longford Town over 3 @ 2,46 1,00%
27.07 Irish Cork City Shelbourne over 2,25 @ 1,90 0,85%
27.07 Irish Div1 Wexford Youths Mervue United over 3 @ 2,46 1,20%
29.07 J2 League Roasso Kumamoto Tokushima Vortis under 2 @ 2,07 2,00%
29.07 Allsvenskan Mjällby AIK Solna under 1,75 @ 2,71 0,41%
29.07 Finnish V Vaasa VPS MyPa under 1,75 @ 2,45 0,46%
29.07 Norwegian T Honefoss BK Haugesund under 2,75 @ 1,65 0,91%
29.07 Norwegian 1 Ranheim Baerum SK Sandvika over 3,25 @ 1,83 0,84%
30.07 Finnish V Inter Turku IFK Mariehamn over 3 @ 2,21 0,92%
31.07 Allsvenskan IFK Goteborg Syrianska FC over 2,25 @ 1,59 0,62%
Adding :
28.07 Brazil Ser B Guarani SP Atletico Paranaense under 2,5 @ 1,84 0,86% 188Bet
28.07 Brazil Ser B Vitória BA CRB Maceio over 3 @ 2,02 0,88% Pinnacle

tukkk · 07-25-12, 05:53 PM

Pending :
25.07 Brazil Ser A Figueirense Internacional RS over 2,25 @ 1,85 0,49%
27.07 Norwegian T Stromsgodset Fredrikstad over 3,25 @ 2,17 1,24%
27.07 Irish Div1 SD Galway Longford Town over 3 @ 2,46 1,00%
27.07 Irish Cork City Shelbourne over 2,25 @ 1,90 0,85%
27.07 Irish Div1 Wexford Youths Mervue United over 3 @ 2,46 1,20%
28.07 Brazil Ser B Guarani SP Atletico Paranaense under 2,5 @ 1,84 0,86%
28.07 Brazil Ser B Vitória BA CRB Maceio over 3 @ 2,02 0,88%
29.07 J2 League Roasso Kumamoto Tokushima Vortis under 2 @ 2,07 2,00%
29.07 Allsvenskan Mjällby AIK Solna under 1,75 @ 2,71 0,41%
29.07 Finnish V Vaasa VPS MyPa under 1,75 @ 2,45 0,46%
29.07 Norwegian T Honefoss BK Haugesund under 2,75 @ 1,65 0,91%
29.07 Norwegian 1 Ranheim Baerum SK Sandvika over 3,25 @ 1,83 0,84%
30.07 Finnish V Inter Turku IFK Mariehamn over 3 @ 2,21 0,92%
31.07 Allsvenskan IFK Goteborg Syrianska FC over 2,25 @ 1,59 0,62%
Adding :
28.07 Superettan Brommapojkarna Landskrona BoIS over 3 @ 2,05 0,72% Pinnacle

tukkk · 07-26-12, 08:14 PM

something got lost in translation, technical problems

peru and canada left for this week, should be coming out <24h

tukkk · 07-26-12, 08:21 PM

Pending :
27.07 Norwegian T Stromsgodset Fredrikstad over 3,25 @ 2,17 1,24%
27.07 Irish Div1 SD Galway Longford Town over 3 @ 2,46 1,00%
27.07 Irish Cork City Shelbourne over 2,25 @ 1,90 0,85%
27.07 Irish Div1 Wexford Youths Mervue United over 3 @ 2,46 1,20%
28.07 Superettan Brommapojkarna Landskrona BoIS over 3 @ 2,05 0,72%
28.07 Brazil Ser B Guarani SP Atletico Paranaense under 2,5 @ 1,84 0,86%
28.07 Brazil Ser B Vitória BA CRB Maceio over 3 @ 2,02 0,88% + 3 @ 2,02 0,10% Pinnacle
29.07 J2 League Roasso Kumamoto Tokushima Vortis under 2 @ 2,07 2,00% + 2 @ 2,08 0,20% Dafabet
29.07 Allsvenskan Mjällby AIK Solna under 1,75 @ 2,71 0,41%
29.07 Finnish V Vaasa VPS MyPa under 1,75 @ 2,45 0,46%
29.07 Norwegian T Honefoss BK Haugesund under 2,75 @ 1,65 0,91%
29.07 Norwegian 1 Ranheim Baerum SK Sandvika over 3,25 @ 1,83 0,84%
30.07 Finnish V Inter Turku IFK Mariehamn over 3 @ 2,21 0,92%
31.07 Allsvenskan IFK Goteborg Syrianska FC over 2,25 @ 1,59 0,62%

PuffPaffy · 07-27-12, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by tukkk

i think you can conclude the profitability even now, the theoretical value im getting from beating closers is going up and will continue to do so
all in all soccer market closers are quite efficient, if you analyse pretty much whatever soccer league that Pinnacle provides, you can see that overall the closing odds reflect the probability

You are saying in the pinny euro-soccer CL isnt any value? i dont agree atall,

tukkk · 07-27-12, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by PuffPaffy

You are saying in the pinny euro-soccer CL isnt any value? i dont agree atall,

i wasnt saying that, there are CL's that have value

i was just stating the fact, that overall the %s run very close and anybody with a database of even 1k games can see that

thats why i wrote "overall" and thats why i bet the games when the line moves against me

we were talking about my model's profitability and there really is only one way to analyse that if you dont have a 2000+ sample size, wouldnt you agree?

im at the moment achieving 4% ROI versus no-vig closing lines and that leads me to believe that my ROI is >4%

">" because of two facts: 1) i have a good asian handicap calculator that solves all markets & finds the market with best value and 2) i believe i hit those CL's that have value, so i do agree with that POV (to some degree)

tukkk · 07-27-12, 04:42 PM

uphill climb ahead

tukkk · 07-29-12, 06:58 AM

... can i at least get one winning day

tukkk · 07-29-12, 07:07 AM

Pending :
29.07 Allsvenskan Mjällby AIK Solna under 1,75 @ 2,71 0,41%
29.07 Finnish V Vaasa VPS MyPa under 1,75 @ 2,45 0,46%
29.07 Norwegian T Honefoss BK Haugesund under 2,75 @ 1,65 0,91%
29.07 Norwegian 1 Ranheim Baerum SK Sandvika over 3,25 @ 1,83 0,84%
30.07 Finnish V Inter Turku IFK Mariehamn over 3 @ 2,21 0,92%
31.07 Allsvenskan IFK Goteborg Syrianska FC over 2,25 @ 1,59 0,62%
Adding :
29.07 Canadian SL Brantford Galaxy SC Waterloo Region over 3,25 @ 1,88 2,31% 188Bet

tukkk · 07-29-12, 03:16 PM

Pending :
29.07 Canadian SL Brantford Galaxy SC Waterloo Region over 3,25 @ 1,88 2,31% + 3,25 @ 1,98 0,45% Dafabet
30.07 Finnish V Inter Turku IFK Mariehamn over 3 @ 2,21 0,92%
31.07 Allsvenskan IFK Goteborg Syrianska FC over 2,25 @ 1,59 0,62%

tukkk · 07-30-12, 01:01 PM

results at the moment

tukkk · 07-31-12, 05:26 PM

Adding :
31.07 Brazil Ser B Goias ABC RN over 2,25 @ 1,63 0,84% Pinnacle

tukkk · 07-31-12, 06:43 PM

Pending :
31.07 Brazil Ser B Goias ABC RN over 2,25 @ 1,63 0,84%
Adding :
01.08 Brazil Ser B CRB Maceio Ipatinga over 3 @ 2,15 0,81% Dafabet

tukkk · 07-31-12, 07:45 PM

Pending :
01.08 Brazil Ser B CRB Maceio Ipatinga over 3 @ 2,15 0,81% + 3 @ 2,29 0,58% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-01-12, 05:31 AM

Adding :
05.08 Norwegian 1 Bryne Notodden FK over 3 @ 2,11 0,95% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-01-12, 09:30 AM

Pending :
05.08 Norwegian 1 Bryne Notodden FK over 3 @ 2,11 0,95%
Adding :
03.08 Irish Div1 Finn Harps SD Galway over 3 @ 2,19 3,75% Pinnacle
05.08 Finnish V Haka Inter Turku over 2,25 @ 1,79 1,00% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-02-12, 08:22 AM

Pending :
03.08 Irish Div1 Finn Harps SD Galway over 3 @ 2,19 3,75%
05.08 Finnish V Haka Inter Turku over 2,25 @ 1,79 1,00%
05.08 Norwegian 1 Bryne Notodden FK over 3 @ 2,11 0,95%
Adding :
05.08 Brazil Ser A Sao Paulo Sport Club do Recife over 3 @ 2,37 0,71% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-06-12, 12:08 AM

Adding :
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-06-12, 08:58 AM

Pending :
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69%
Adding :
09.08 Brazil Ser A Atletico Mineiro Coritiba over 3 @ 2,18 1,24% Pinnacle
08.08 Brazil Ser A Sport Club do Recife Vasco da Gama under 2 @ 2,52 3,21% Pinnacle

yysmer · 08-06-12, 01:18 PM

Enough data base to prove that your system doesn't work.

yysmer · 08-06-12, 01:19 PM

Oh wait, actually if works if you fade it.

tukkk · 08-06-12, 01:56 PM

i would appreciate it if you cared to explain your reasoning

tukkk · 08-06-12, 05:02 PM

Pending :
08.08 Brazil Ser A Sport Club do Recife Vasco da Gama under 2 @ 2,52 3,21%
09.08 Brazil Ser A Atletico Mineiro Coritiba over 3 @ 2,18 1,24%
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69%
Adding :
08.08 Icelandic FH Hafnarfjordur Selfoss over 3 @ 1,89 5,44% Pinnacle
08.08 Icelandic Stjarnan Gardabaer Keflavik over 3 @ 1,99 1,33% Pinnacle
08.08 Icelandic Valur Reykjavik Breidablik under 2,5 @ 2,00 0,59% Dafabet

tukkk · 08-07-12, 10:47 AM

Pending :
08.08 Icelandic FH Hafnarfjordur Selfoss over 3 @ 1,89 5,44%
08.08 Icelandic Stjarnan Gardabaer Keflavik over 3 @ 1,99 1,33%
08.08 Icelandic Valur Reykjavik Breidablik under 2,5 @ 2,00 0,59%
08.08 Brazil Ser A Sport Club do Recife Vasco da Gama under 2 @ 2,52 3,21%
09.08 Brazil Ser A Atletico Mineiro Coritiba over 3 @ 2,18 1,24%
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69%
Adding :
11.08 J-League Kashiwa Reysol FC Tokyo over 3 @ 2,13 2,03% Pinnacle

yysmer · 08-07-12, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by tukkk

i would appreciate it if you cared to explain your reasoning

Look at your curve it's constantly decreasing. 90 bets is a big enough sample size.

tukkk · 08-07-12, 07:55 PM

Pending :
08.08 Icelandic FH Hafnarfjordur Selfoss over 3 @ 1,89 5,44%
08.08 Icelandic Stjarnan Gardabaer Keflavik over 3 @ 1,99 1,33%
08.08 Icelandic Valur Reykjavik Breidablik under 2,5 @ 2,00 0,59%
08.08 Brazil Ser A Sport Club do Recife Vasco da Gama under 2 @ 2,52 3,21%
09.08 Brazil Ser A Atletico Mineiro Coritiba over 3 @ 2,18 1,24%
11.08 J-League Kashiwa Reysol FC Tokyo over 3 @ 2,13 2,03%
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69%
Adding :
12.08 Norwegian 1 Sarpsborg 08 Strommen over 3,25 @ 2,07 0,57% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-08-12, 02:09 PM

Pending :
08.08 Icelandic FH Hafnarfjordur Selfoss over 3 @ 1,89 5,44%
08.08 Icelandic Stjarnan Gardabaer Keflavik over 3 @ 1,99 1,33%
08.08 Icelandic Valur Reykjavik Breidablik under 2,5 @ 2,00 0,59% + 2,5 @ 2,08 0,36% Dafabet
08.08 Brazil Ser A Sport Club do Recife Vasco da Gama under 2 @ 2,52 3,21%
09.08 Brazil Ser A Atletico Mineiro Coritiba over 3 @ 2,18 1,24%
11.08 J-League Kashiwa Reysol FC Tokyo over 3 @ 2,13 2,03%
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69%
12.08 Norwegian 1 Sarpsborg 08 Strommen over 3,25 @ 2,07 0,57%

tukkk · 08-10-12, 08:29 AM

Pending :
11.08 J-League Kashiwa Reysol FC Tokyo over 3 @ 2,13 2,03% + 3 @ 2,19 0,44% Pinnacle
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69%
12.08 Norwegian 1 Sarpsborg 08 Strommen over 3,25 @ 2,07 0,57%

hotelis · 08-10-12, 08:33 AM

Computers/scientists once predicted Cleveland Cavaliers to win NBA championship.

tukkk · 08-11-12, 04:41 AM

Pending :
11.08 J-League Kashiwa Reysol FC Tokyo over 3 @ 2,13 2,03% & 3 @ 2,19 0,44% + 3 @ 2,36 0,52% 188Bet
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69%
12.08 Norwegian 1 Sarpsborg 08 Strommen over 3,25 @ 2,07 0,57%

tukkk · 08-12-12, 06:00 AM

Pending :
12.08 Norwegian T Sogndal Rosenborg under 3 @ 1,56 2,69% + 3 @ 1,59 0,22% Pinnacle
12.08 Norwegian 1 Sarpsborg 08 Strommen over 3,25 @ 2,07 0,57%
Adding :
12.08 Canadian SL Brampton City United Mississauga Eagles over 3,5 @ 1,90 1,47% SBObet
12.08 Canadian SL York Region Shooters Serbian White Eagles over 3 @ 2,11 4,91% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-13-12, 04:58 AM

Pending :
13.08 Canadian SL Brampton City United Mississauga Eagles over 3,5 @ 1,90 1,47%
Adding :
26.08 Norwegian T Haugesund Stabaek over 3,25 @ 2,10 0,82% Pinnacle

tukkk · 08-13-12, 07:58 AM

Pending :
13.08 Canadian SL Brampton City United Mississauga Eagles over 3,5 @ 1,90 1,47%
26.08 Norwegian T Haugesund Stabaek over 3,25 @ 2,10 0,82%
Adding :
18.08 J-League FC Tokyo Omiya Ardija over 2,25 @ 1,78 1,78% Pinnacle
18.08 J-League Sagan Tosu Shimizu S Pulse over 2 @ 1,83 3,34% Pinnacle

PuffPaffy · 08-16-12, 06:32 AM

He Tukk, I'm wondering at which point you'd give up on your model. You obviously run terrible, but what is the determing factor to abandon your model? Z-score 3.0+? Or you just grind it out untill a certain #bets to get a better sample-size?

Anyway, best of luck!