Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

[MatI]

I think the fight will be between RB and McLaren at the front but with a new track im going to take it conservatively. Just one h2h at this stage.

F1 United States Grand Prix
Race H2H, Rosberg @ 1.85 v Schumacher - 1u

[MatI]

A-League: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners, Both To Teams Score @ 1.73 - risking 1u

[zizoudane10]

Hey pal, any thoughts on Newcastle - Wellington tomorrow? I like the over 2.5 there, but maybe I'm missing something. Any important news from down under for this one?

[MatI]

Hi mate, yeah I do like the over in that game as well. Especially with Wellington needing a strong result here. There will be plenty to play for here and should be an attacking game. The odds are getting slightly better so I have held off but I i'll be taking it.

[MatI]

Hey Matt, do you know why these 2 head to heads are so skewed? Can't see any news to explain it.

Fri 11/16 1011 Daniel Ricciardo (Qualifying) -350
10:00AM 1012 Jean-Eric Vergne (Qualifying) +260

Fri 11/16 1017 Pastor Maldonado (Qualifying) -485
10:00AM 1018 Bruno Senna (Qualifying) +350


I get why the faves are faves... but +260 and +350??

Vernge got up! Did I scare you away from this?

[Optional]

I wasn't planning to bet them. Just hadn't noticed team mate h2hs at odds like that before.

[MatI]

Alonso has been about -700 for most of the year. Crazy really, no matter the stats.

Good to see Marcos sign for '13. Here's hoping the new crew chief works out this time.

[MatI]

A-League: Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC, Over 2.5 @ 1.68 - risking 1u - WIN

A-League: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners, Both To Teams Score @ 1.73 - risking 1u - WIN

Thread Total YTD-
246-243-18
+2.215 units


Pending:
F1 United States Grand Prix
Race H2H, Rosberg @ 1.85 v Schumacher - 1u

[MatI]

A-League: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix, Both To Teams Score @ 1.83 - risking 1u

[MatI]

Live Bet: Perth Glory vs Western Sydney
Perth Glory DNB @ 1.83 - 1u

[Puda]

victory game was classy!1 pity we couldnt find the winner.. and dam marco flores ... useless red.

[MatI]

I didnt see the game until this morning, but that first half was great footy. Three points would have been very nice though.

[MatI]

SPL: Inverness vs Motherwell
Inverness DNB @ 1.70 - risking 1u

[zizoudane10]

Hi mate, yeah I do like the over in that game as well. Especially with Wellington needing a strong result here. There will be plenty to play for here and should be an attacking game. The odds are getting slightly better so I have held off but I i'll be taking it.

Thx my friend, lucky hit with a penalty in the 87., but feels good after a shitty friday and saturday

[MatI]

Glad you got it mate. I ended up talking myself out of it for some reason..

[MatI]

NASCAR Sprint Cup: Homestead Miami
Top 5 Finish, Kyle Busch @ 1.90 - 1u

[MatI]

MLS: DC United v Houston Dynamo, Over 2.5 @ 1.95 - 1u

[MatI]

MLS: Seattle Sounders v LA Galaxy, Over 2.5 @ 1.85 - 1u

[MatI]

A-League: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix, Both To Teams Score @ 1.83 - risking 1u - LOSS

Live Bet: Perth Glory vs Western Sydney
Perth Glory DNB @ 1.83 - 1u - LOSS

SPL: Inverness vs Motherwell
Inverness DNB @ 1.70 - risking 1u - LOSS

F1 United States Grand Prix
Race H2H, Rosberg @ 1.85 v Schumacher - 1u - WIN

NASCAR Sprint Cup: Homestead Miami
Top 5 Finish, Kyle Busch @ 1.90 - 1u - WIN

MLS: DC United v Houston Dynamo, Over 2.5 @ 1.95 - 1u - LOSS

MLS: Seattle Sounders v LA Galaxy, Over 2.5 @ 1.85 - 1u - WIN

Thread Total YTD-
249-247-18
+0.96 units

[MatI]

CRICKET: 2nd Test - Australia vs South Africa
Australia to WIN @ 3.00 - 1u

[MatI]

International Friendly: Argentina vs Brazil, Over 2.5 @ 1.813 - risking 1u

[Optional]

CRICKET: 2nd Test - Australia vs South Africa
Australia to WIN @ 3.00 - 1u

Tailed. Gives me a reason to watch some of it.

[MatI]

Early days, but so far, so good.

Hope you are doing well mate.

[Optional]

Huge start! Any thoughts of hedging the draw?

Thanks Matt. Same.

[MatI]

CRICKET: 2nd Test - Australia vs South Africa
Australia to WIN @ 3.00 - 1u

South Africa to WIN @ 26.00 - 0.1u

I actually don't think South Africa will win the 2nd test, but im adding this on to cover my original wager. There is obviously a risk of still losing if the result is a draw but I will cover that also in the next day or so. Having said that, im pretty sure this match will be over by late day 4 or early day 5.

[MatI]

Huge start! Any thoughts of hedging the draw?

Thanks Matt. Same.

Ha, we are thinking the same way. Def a good opportunity to guarantee profit for this one.

[Optional]

I figure if the Saffies lose a couple of early wickets the odds should move up over $4.00 for the draw? These sort of epic contests often seem to come back near even at some point. I think...

[MatI]

I figure if the Saffies lose a couple of early wickets the odds should move up over $4.00 for the draw? These sort of epic contests often seem to come back near even at some point. I think...

Yep, we need a day or half a day with a few wickets falling, and jump on the draw then.

I'd like to get the draw at closer to 8-10.00 and im expecting/hoping Aus bat for another half a day and take the total to 650+. So im willing to hold out until Day 3 if necessary, but the chance will arise at some stage. I have tomorrow & Saturday off work so i'll be watching all of it.

[Optional]

Oh nice. Glad I asked sounds like I am underestimating where it could go.

[Optional]

How about this scenario Matt?

I have 1.25u on Aussies at $3.10 right now, giving potential 2.6u clear profit after BF fees.

But if I now lay 1.25u against Aussies at $1.71, resulting in 1.75u profit if Aussies win or break even otherwise.

And then take that 'free' 1.75u and put it on Saffies at $30.00

Then put up an offer to lay the Saffies at $10.00 for 5.25u

Which leaves you with a net result of 5.1u if Aussies win or 3.3u if either of the other 2 outcomes occur... all for no extra risk... but relying on the Saffies coming into $10.00 at some time over the next 4 days.

Whatcha think?

1) keep the current bet. 1.25 at risk for 2.6 profit
2) Sell the 1.25u now for a risk free shot at 1.75u if Aussies win.
3) Roll the dice with the 1.75u and go for a risk free 5.1u if Aussies win, but also relying on SA getting close enough for their win odds to come in from $30 to $10 at some stage.

[MatI]

Im a little more conservative than you and lean toward either of the first two options. One thing that worries me about the third option is relying on SA making a game of it.

It's hard to know how the next few days will pan out but I think the aussies have a good psychological edge at the moment. If they can get some key wickets when they eventually take to the field it could be over very quickly imo.

[MatI]

A-League: Sydney FC vs Adelaide United, Over 2.5 @ 1.75 - risking 1u

[BrownSugarUSA]

Sydney are absolutely awful (apart from ADP of course) why not take Adelaide @ 2.30?

[MatI]

I was tempted, but i just don't feel confident about an adelaide win in this one. I would much more rely on the leaky Sydney defense and both teams have strong scoring options.

[Optional]

Im a little more conservative than you and lean toward either of the first two options. One thing that worries me about the third option is relying on SA making a game of it.

It's hard to know how the next few days will pan out but I think the aussies have a good psychological edge at the moment. If they can get some key wickets when they eventually take to the field it could be over very quickly imo.

I forgot all about this this morning before play started. So did nothing. Option 3 would have paid already