If Mexico beats France I have a LOCK for you

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  • SamsNCharge99
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-22-08
    • 41242

    #36
    gl Paver

    could easily see a tie happening as well as pound the UNDER
    Comment
    • mathdotcom
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-24-08
      • 11689

      #37
      cougar,

      go all-in
      Comment
      • Cougar Bait
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-04-07
        • 18282

        #38
        Originally posted by pavyracer
        Treat it as a regular game. Never bet over your head. Also if you bet it right on live bet you can win more or hedge. If Mexico takes the lead you can live bet the draw but if Uruguay takes the lead they will probably win. So bet the draw before the game starts and as long as no scoring is done let it stand. Then bet accordingly if a goal is scored. But do not bet the farm by any means.
        I will keep it as a small wager, might parlay it with something else as well.

        Mathy, fooseball is the devil
        Comment
        • DwightShrute
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-17-09
          • 103316

          #39
          Thought I'd pass it on for what it's worth




          Mexico won't play for draw
          The two teams meet at the Royal Bafokeng Stadium in Rustenburg and a point apiece would see France and South Africa exit the competition. As Uruguay currently boast a superior goal difference to Mexico, it would be Oscar Tabarez's side who would finish top of Group A.
          The team finishing second in the group would likely face in-form Argentina though, so Aguirre is not contemplating the possibility of playing for a draw, whatever the conspiracy theorists may suspect.
          "Tomorrow we're going to try and win,'' Aguirre said. "We can be first, second, third or even fourth [sic] in the group. The law of the Mexican side is to win.
          "If as a consequence of what happens on the pitch there's a draw or a defeat and we both qualify with no major goal differences, then we'll both be happy. But I can guarantee that the Mexican side is going to go out there to try and win.
          "My players are very relaxed and know they can be either first or second in the group. They know they have to be fully focussed because we still haven't achieved anything, so we have no reason to feel happy.
          "Mathematically we still don't have our ticket to the next round and tomorrow we have to try and take those three points, so that we can achieve our aims for the first round."
          Uruguay coach Tabarez has also dismissed suggestions that both teams will be happy to see the game end in a stalemate.
          "I think it's just lots of people being creative and also lacking respect for those of us, the players and the coaches, that are going to be playing in that match tomorrow," Tabarez said. "But people can talk for free, so let's just leave it there."
          Mexico, who drew with South Africa in their opening game before defeating France 2-0, will be without forward Carlos Vela due to a hamstring injury and Efrain Juarez due to suspension on Tuesday. Aguirre admits Vela's injury is worrying the country's medical staff.
          "We are very sad about Vela, that's a concern," Aguirre said. "But I've got 21 players available and they're all physically and mentally very strong."
          Comment
          • pavyracer
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 04-12-07
            • 82839

            #40
            Not sure why Mexico will risk. Vela is their best forward and is out. C.Blanco is 38 years old and can't play the whole game. J.Hernandez is only 20 years old. Mexico will be very conservative. They are one injury away from not having adequate forwards for next match.
            Comment
            • DwightShrute
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-17-09
              • 103316

              #41
              ya all good points. I still say the Draw is likely. Just passing on the article.
              Comment
              • rfr3sh
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-07-09
                • 10229

                #42
                even if they were playing a regular match a draw is a likely outcome i feel
                Comment
                • Pokerjoe
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 04-17-09
                  • 704

                  #43
                  The draw is way overpriced. Mexico can certainly risk the loss to go for the win. Winner gets South Korea, Greece or Nigeria in the next round.

                  Remember, Mexico can lose the game and STILL most likely advance. They'd have to lose (and have France or SA win) by a total of 4 goals to not advance. Do you know how unlikely that is? A 4 goal total deficit? No, Mexico has every reason to gun for the win here. I'm betting no draw.
                  Comment
                  • vitalogist
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-11-08
                    • 2820

                    #44
                    Draw -110 at Bodog...
                    Comment
                    • D3 Mighty Ducks
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-17-09
                      • 11939

                      #45
                      Correct score 0-0
                      Comment
                      • lakerboy
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 04-02-09
                        • 94379

                        #46
                        Pavy is right, For those of you trying to fight the oddsmakers have fun.
                        Comment
                        • MyLuck888
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 06-09-10
                          • 84

                          #47
                          over is the play for me good luck
                          Comment
                          • suicidekings
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-23-09
                            • 9962

                            #48
                            France needs to blow out SA to have a chance, and they haven't even scored a single goal yet. Mexico and Uruguay will almost definitely advance, and with that in mind, there is a strong incentive to play to win this game, but accept the draw if necessary. I think both teams will be aggressive to start the game, and I think Uruguay is better equipped to score first. I'm taking a chance on the +360 ML.
                            Comment
                            • chaseheitmann
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 06-17-10
                              • 4

                              #49
                              Sounds Good Im on it.
                              Comment
                              • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 12-17-09
                                • 11939

                                #50
                                I think its a trap. I like Mexico ML +293
                                Comment
                                • pokernut9999
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 07-25-07
                                  • 12757

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks
                                  I think its a trap. I like Mexico ML +293

                                  I was thinking of taking both sides at these odds.
                                  Comment
                                  • Sawyer
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 06-01-09
                                    • 7761

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by pavyracer
                                    Unload on the Draw in Mexico - Uruguay. The draw will drop like a hammer. It may end up being -200!!
                                    Thanks Pavy!

                                    Backed draw at 3.20 (+220)
                                    Layed draw at 1.88 (-113) for guaranteed profit



                                    Nothing feels like sure money
                                    Comment
                                    • Karayilan9
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-10-09
                                      • 3742

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by Sawyer
                                      Thanks Pavy!

                                      Backed draw at 3.20 (+220)
                                      Layed draw at 1.88 (-113) for guaranteed profit



                                      Nothing feels like sure money

                                      You using any trading software kardesim?

                                      Nothing like greening up all day
                                      Comment
                                      • Sawyer
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 06-01-09
                                        • 7761

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by Karayilan9
                                        You using any trading software kardesim?

                                        Nothing like greening up all day
                                        I don't use betangel or fairbot. I like manual style kardeeeşşş
                                        Comment
                                        • brumbies
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-21-09
                                          • 1489

                                          #55
                                          Guaranteed profit? How does that work?
                                          Comment
                                          • flyingillini
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 41219

                                            #56
                                            I think that Mexico wins tomorrow!
                                            המוסד‎
                                            המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                            Comment
                                            • COOGI
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-05-10
                                              • 1510

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by acarmelo1
                                              if this games ends in draw Uruguay will end as Number 1 and Mexico as Number 2 on Group A Number 2 will go againts Argentina on the next round. SO maybe mexico will try to win this game so they dont get eliminated with argentina on the next round.
                                              .. i agreed....i like the over 1.5
                                              Comment
                                              • McBa1n
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-02-06
                                                • 2642

                                                #58
                                                The thing that surprises me is the lack of looking at the Uruguay money line play. They match up very very well versus Mexico, who, in my opinion, struggle with marking at the back. If Uruguay comes out with a two striker front, I think they can create strong chances with great opportunites to score in the counter-attack. Forlan has been on form and Suarez is due to put one home and has been very good at drawing whistles. I think there's good value in Uruguay tommorrow... I'd also be stupid to not mention the strength of their defense. It's been very strong so far in the tournament. I also don't think Uruguay is exactly scared of Argentina (with good results in qualifiers against them). I just can't see them NOT playing their game of counter attack.
                                                Comment
                                                • GroundnPound
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-12-09
                                                  • 4070

                                                  #59
                                                  Guys we also have to factor in for people who play the under that Mexico or Uruguay can lose and still qualify even if France or South Africa win. Only way they don't go through is if France or South Africa beat other with a scoreline or Uruguay or Mexico lose to each other with a scoreline or both.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Slainte
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                    • 2442

                                                    #60
                                                    The only value left is on 0-0 correct score
                                                    Comment
                                                    • rm18
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 09-20-05
                                                      • 22291

                                                      #61
                                                      no hat trick is a lock
                                                      Comment
                                                      • GiveMeaBJ
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-08-09
                                                        • 8449

                                                        #62
                                                        Mexico Pk and the draw. The pk for more. If they draw you win one and push. If Mex wins you win enough to cover the draw + some profit.

                                                        Sure you drop a good amount if Uruguay wins but I really think there is value there based on the factors that go into this game. Uruguay just wants to draw and lock up the group and no game in the first round against Argentina.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SoV
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-21-10
                                                          • 6420

                                                          #63
                                                          Mexico and Uruguay will be going for a win so that they win the group and avoid playing Argentina in the Round of 16.
                                                          FML

                                                          http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-han...scussions.html
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Sawyer
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 06-01-09
                                                            • 7761

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by brumbies
                                                            Guaranteed profit? How does that work?
                                                            You back draw at +220 (when the odds for draw are high)
                                                            Then as Pavyracer predicted, odds for draw dropped to -113.

                                                            Then you lay draw (you say draw won't win so you back Uruguay Win & Mexico Win at +112)

                                                            You hedge/middle your bet.

                                                            So you have 2 bets..

                                                            Draw +220
                                                            No Draw +112

                                                            You're guaranteed to make profit. There's no way you can lose money. (but you would lose money if odds for draw move above +220. Odds for draw moved to -113, that's why we made profit)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Karayilan9
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 01-10-09
                                                              • 3742

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by Sawyer
                                                              I don't use betangel or fairbot. I like manual style kardeeeşşş
                                                              Its worth getting hold of some software, the free programs available are just as good.

                                                              Have a green day

                                                              Good luck kardeş
                                                              Comment
                                                              • rm18
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 09-20-05
                                                                • 22291

                                                                #66
                                                                see I told you one team would get up and play good defense, better chance to draw than the average game but not a good play
                                                                Comment
                                                                • dmolition
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-10-08
                                                                  • 106

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by Karayilan9
                                                                  Its worth getting hold of some software, the free programs available are just as good.

                                                                  Have a green day

                                                                  Good luck kardeş
                                                                  Can you share which software is free to use with betfair?

                                                                  thanks.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • wtf
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 08-22-08
                                                                    • 12983

                                                                    #68
                                                                    another lock from the pavmiester !
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • terpkeg
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-26-09
                                                                      • 2364

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by Sawyer
                                                                      You back draw at +220 (when the odds for draw are high)
                                                                      Then as Pavyracer predicted, odds for draw dropped to -113.

                                                                      Then you lay draw (you say draw won't win so you back Uruguay Win & Mexico Win at +112)

                                                                      You hedge/middle your bet.

                                                                      So you have 2 bets..

                                                                      Draw +220
                                                                      No Draw +112

                                                                      You're guaranteed to make profit. There's no way you can lose money. (but you would lose money if odds for draw move above +220. Odds for draw moved to -113, that's why we made profit)
                                                                      What would be the formula to get the odds on no draw in this situation? I have not studied any Math since Calc 1 about 10 years ago and I am stuck with trial and error.

                                                                      Thanks.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • rm18
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 09-20-05
                                                                        • 22291

                                                                        #70
                                                                        if you think it is a fix draw you should just take under 2.5, it is not like they are going to tie at a higher number than 1.
                                                                        Comment
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