World Cup Group Stage Picks

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  • Alexgurv
    SBR MVP
    • 10-24-09
    • 1770

    #1
    World Cup Group Stage Picks
    South Africa pick (+0) +106 to bet 1 unit

    I expect this to be a draw to be honest, but to go on the safe side I'm gonna go with the pick. This time last year I wouldn't have expected S. Africa to get a single point but I have changed my tune a little. First of all the obvious factor is that they have the whole country behind them. Second, they have played some tough teams over the last year and have played well against them. This includes taking Spain to the brink in last years Confederation Cup. They also nearly got a draw with Brazil until Dani Alves scored a goal in 88th minute. They struggled in the few months after but they got it back together the last few weeks and this is exactly how I expect them to play. Including a victory against a pretty decent Denmark team. The team will be able to put up some goals because of Parreira's attacking type game plan and I could see Pienaar having a great tournament.

    Mexico is the better team without question on paper but I think that S. Africa's advantage of being on there home ground, in the opening game will surely even the odds a little bit more for S. Africa. They haven't exactly impressed in the last few World Cups. They couldn't beat an Angola team that was in its first world cup and as I recall were dominated by the Portuguese. It's been mentioned that S. Africa has a ton of pressure on it because expectations for a host country is to always qualify. I actually don't agree with that statement. I've mentioned before I have a friend who is in South Africa as we speak and was there last year for the Confederation Cup. He said expectations are not really that high and the team is almost considered a joke. I think any result at all would be a great victory. While Mexico has a ton of pressure on them. I was just in Mexico 3 weeks ago and World Cup fever was on. Talking to a few people there at the hotel I was at that were Mexican they actually expect to win this thing, at worst make the semi-finals. When you talk about pressure, I think there is a ton of Mexican pressure to perform in this because they haven't gotten past the Round of 16 since 1986 (when Mexico was t he host).

    Also I know its been mentioned that a host country has never failed to get into the knockout stage but something I found interested is that a host country has never lost there first game as well. I believe there has been 3 draws and the rest were victories. I pretty much expect a draw in this game, but to be on the safe side going with the "pick" just in case S. Africa manages a win.
  • Alexgurv
    SBR MVP
    • 10-24-09
    • 1770

    #2
    Uruguay +288 to bet 1 unit

    I just love the value in this pick. Uruguay 2 great forwards in Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. Forlan scored 7 goals in qualifying while Suarez scored the most goals in the Erdevisie for Ajax. The team has a lot of experience but a lot of young players as well which is a good mix. Also Oscar Tabarez is leading the way, the last time Uruguay made the Round of 16 in 1990 he was also the manager.

    France some may argue they shouldn't be in the World Cup. I've seen a lot of people saying they will just turn it on for the World Cup but I see nothing that signify's this other then the fact that they are France. They've struggled against teams like China and Tunisia in the last couple of weeks. They struggled with teams like Faroe Islands and Romania in qualifiers. The last time this team played in a major competition (Euro 2008). They scored a grand total of one goal. The team hasn't changed much since then, I expect a lot of the same. Don't forget that Domenech is still managing this team which can't possibly help them. They aren't scoring like they should be, and Uruguay certainly has the capability of putting the ball in the net.
    Comment
    • JOHON8
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 01-28-10
      • 7712

      #3
      Originally posted by Alexgurv
      Uruguay +288 to bet 1 unit

      I just love the value in this pick. Uruguay 2 great forwards in Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. Forlan scored 7 goals in qualifying while Suarez scored the most goals in the Erdevisie for Ajax. The team has a lot of experience but a lot of young players as well which is a good mix. Also Oscar Tabarez is leading the way, the last time Uruguay made the Round of 16 in 1990 he was also the manager.

      France some may argue they shouldn't be in the World Cup. I've seen a lot of people saying they will just turn it on for the World Cup but I see nothing that signify's this other then the fact that they are France. They've struggled against teams like China and Tunisia in the last couple of weeks. They struggled with teams like Faroe Islands and Romania in qualifiers. The last time this team played in a major competition (Euro 2008). They scored a grand total of one goal. The team hasn't changed much since then, I expect a lot of the same. Don't forget that Domenech is still managing this team which can't possibly help them. They aren't scoring like they should be, and Uruguay certainly has the capability of putting the ball in the net.
      Personally I think you're making a mistake putting your logic on 2 forwards and some friendly games France played. Uruguay plays a 3 man defense, they are going to be punished and outplayed by Mexico, France and even South Africa.

      I think Mexico has the best value to qualify after dominating Italy, England and Netherlands in the friendlies, purely based on the way they are organized. Mexico's only problem is finishing goals, they need ti fix that problem in the WC.
      Comment
      • Alexgurv
        SBR MVP
        • 10-24-09
        • 1770

        #4
        Originally posted by JOHON8
        Personally I think you're making a mistake putting your logic on 2 forwards and some friendly games France played. Uruguay plays a 3 man defense, they are going to be punished and outplayed by Mexico, France and even South Africa.

        I think Mexico has the best value to qualify after dominating Italy, England and Netherlands in the friendlies, purely based on the way they are organized. Mexico's only problem is finishing goals, they need ti fix that problem in the WC.
        Not true, not basing my France outlook on how they played in friendlies. Im basing it on how theyve played the last 2 years. They struggled in the WC Qualifying to teams like the Faroe Islands and Romania. They scored one goal in Euro 2008. In the last 2 years this team just hasn't played well.. Like I said Uruguay has a good mix of veterans and young talent. Even in the back they have a guy like Caceras. I mentioned the fact that there two forwards can score is the fact thats gone help them beat a team like France and I think they will move onto the next round.

        About Mexico I just think they are at a complete disadvantage playing in the opening game. I know they played well against all 3 of those teams but S. Africa really hasn't been playing poorly. I expect Mexico to go by but just struggle in this first game.
        Comment
        • Alexgurv
          SBR MVP
          • 10-24-09
          • 1770

          #5
          South Korea/Greece Draw +216 to bet 1 unit

          Moving onto the June 12th games Group B starts. This is actually a tough matchup for me to predict. I don't play totals at all but if I had to the under would be the one I take. Both teams play a defensive style. S. Korea has some speedy players but Rehhagel says this team is going back to the defensive soccer that won them the Euro 2004 Championship.
          Comment
          • Lincoln73
            SBR Sharp
            • 02-12-10
            • 454

            #6
            France is vastly overrated, look for Mexico and S. Africa to advance to the knockout stages.
            Comment
            • protein
              SBR MVP
              • 12-20-09
              • 1231

              #7
              France is undderrated to my mind. Call me crazy but there is a chance to have the final between same teams than 6 Years ago.
              Comment
              • Jimmy0607
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-09-09
                • 7785

                #8
                Originally posted by JOHON8
                Personally I think you're making a mistake putting your logic on 2 forwards and some friendly games France played. Uruguay plays a 3 man defense, they are going to be punished and outplayed by Mexico, France and even South Africa.
                Absolutely wrong , they play with a 3 man defense that turns into 5 when they are being attacked and they are used as midfielders when Uruguay attacks
                Comment
                • Jimmy0607
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 04-09-09
                  • 7785

                  #9
                  JOHN you totally counterdict yourself by saying that he puts his logic only on a few friendlies that France played and then you say that Mexico has the best value because of the friendlies they played
                  Comment
                  • spartiatis
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 12-31-09
                    • 252

                    #10
                    I agree with some of what has been written above - if there is one underdog that is likely to make you money during the wc, it is South Africa. Not only do they have home field advantage, they are also guaranteed to get favourable calls from the refs (host teams always do).
                    Comment
                    • minet123
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-17-07
                      • 10280

                      #11
                      You think home pitch will mean that much for South Africa against a better team Mexico
                      Comment
                      • Alexgurv
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-24-09
                        • 1770

                        #12
                        Originally posted by protein
                        France is undderrated to my mind. Call me crazy but there is a chance to have the final between same teams than 6 Years ago.
                        but why, like I've been saying they have proven nothing the last 2 years. I feel like the only reason this team is talked about as a contender is because they are France but not based on the quality of play they have had of late...

                        About the Mexico friendly against England, Holland and Italy. I can't say I watched any of those games being that I have work ( reading about the games I saw they played well) but I watched the Italy-Switzerland game today. If Italy played like they did today against Mexico I can see why Mexico won. Italy looked completely disinterested.
                        Comment
                        • Alexgurv
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-24-09
                          • 1770

                          #13
                          Originally posted by minet123
                          You think home pitch will mean that much for South Africa against a better team Mexico
                          yes, particularly in the opening game. I know friendlies don't mean a ton but this team has played pretty well the last few weeks in them. Also they showed up last year in the Confederation Cup, they surprised I'm sure a lot of people. I'm also just not that sure about Mexico. They can attack really well but the defense isn't that great and it leaves them vulnerable for the counter attack. There also not very good against set pieces.
                          Comment
                          • JOHON8
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-28-10
                            • 7712

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Jimmy0607
                            JOHN you totally counterdict yourself by saying that he puts his logic only on a few friendlies that France played and then you say that Mexico has the best value because of the friendlies they played
                            Mexico outplayed England, Netherlands and Italy, even if they are friendlies shows something more than friendlies vs (FRANCE:China, Tunisia, Costa Rica) and (Uruguay: Israel, Switzerland). By the way I'm not Mexican so I don't have a bias, it's just what I saw on the field that makes me say they are going to surprise a lot of people in the WC.

                            I understand why you like to defend Uruguay that's okay, but Mexico dominates Uruguay H2H, should dominate SA, and can dominate a French team that was horrible in WC qualifying without even looking at friendlies.

                            You know more about Uruguay then I do, will they beat Mexico and why?
                            Comment
                            • Alexgurv
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-24-09
                              • 1770

                              #15
                              Originally posted by JOHON8
                              Mexico outplayed England, Netherlands and Italy, even if they are friendlies shows something more than friendlies vs (FRANCE:China, Tunisia, Costa Rica) and (Uruguay: Israel, Switzerland). By the way I'm not Mexican so I don't have a bias, it's just what I saw on the field that makes me say they are going to surprise a lot of people in the WC.

                              I understand why you like to defend Uruguay that's okay, but Mexico dominates Uruguay H2H, should dominate SA, and can dominate a French team that was horrible in WC qualifying without even looking at friendlies.

                              You know more about Uruguay then I do, will they beat Mexico and why?
                              So you must really think Uruguay is a pretty bad team if you think that Mexico will dominate France. But France will dominate Uruguay

                              BTW not sure why you are so stuck in these friendlies. I mentioned those, qualifiers and Euro 2008 and how they've struggled since then. Not sure where it came that I was putting too much stock into the French friendlies. Just pointing out they have sucked in those too
                              Comment
                              • Alexgurv
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-24-09
                                • 1770

                                #16
                                By the way I think your failing to acknowledge that Mexico could be beat by the counter attack and its well known they are not a good team when it comes to set pieces.
                                Comment
                                • Jimmy0607
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-09-09
                                  • 7785

                                  #17
                                  I never said that Uruguay is gonna dominate anybody, I'm just saying that you told Alex that he's basing his logic on a few friendlies but then again all your logic on Mexico is based on a "few friendlies" , I'm not saying Mexico is bad or anything I was just pointing that out
                                  Comment
                                  • Alexgurv
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-24-09
                                    • 1770

                                    #18
                                    pending plays -

                                    S. Africa pick -106
                                    Uruguay +288
                                    S. Korea/Greece Draw +216


                                    Nigera +1 (+118) to bet 1 unit

                                    Argentina is one of the most talented teams in the World Cup right now. But Maradona has not been a good manager. The team should have never struggled to make the World Cup with all this talent, but yet there hopes hinged on the very last day of qualification for them to get in without going to a playoff.

                                    But yet Nigeria has also struggled of late in friendlies and losing there best player John Obi Mikel to a knee injury. They came out of the African Cup of Nations with some inner-team fighting which led to them eventually firing there coach Shaibu Amodu

                                    I think these are two teams with a lot of question marks and it will come down with who can score. Argentina has a few question marks at defense letting up 6 goals at one point to a team like Bolivia and losing 3-1 to Brazil at home. Victor Obinna showed up in the Olympics and Aiyegbeni is there top scorer. Nigeria has a good coach now in Lars Lagerback and I think he can turn this team around.
                                    Comment
                                    • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-17-09
                                      • 11939

                                      #19
                                      Your South Africa pick is hilarious South Africa is terrible they won't even match-up close to Mexico. You can throw that bet out the window.
                                      Comment
                                      • Alexgurv
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-24-09
                                        • 1770

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks
                                        Your South Africa pick is hilarious South Africa is terrible they won't even match-up close to Mexico. You can throw that bet out the window.
                                        thanks for the insight bro
                                        Comment
                                        • phatperp3
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 06-06-10
                                          • 1

                                          #21
                                          i'm tailing all these picks. BOL to us.
                                          Comment
                                          • JOHON8
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 01-28-10
                                            • 7712

                                            #22
                                            Alex I'm on the oppositite side of some of your bets, but you make good points on Nigeria/South Africa, keep up the thread we support you on this forum. GL

                                            Ignore the haters, some of them are betting on France to win the WC this year.
                                            Comment
                                            • Alexgurv
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-24-09
                                              • 1770

                                              #23
                                              thanks Johon, appreciate it

                                              Phatperp your a good dude
                                              Comment
                                              • Alexgurv
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-24-09
                                                • 1770

                                                #24
                                                USA/England - not gonna play it, will certainly be cheering for the USA and hoping they will win, thinking a 2-0 England win. Hoping otherwise


                                                Algeria pick -106 to win 1 unit

                                                Slovenia is either one of the most overrated or underrated teams in the world I can't tell. Slovenia seems to get by teams like Russia with tough defense. They beat Slovakia twice as well but for some reason I'm just not buying it. (I've kind of changed my tune after looking over there team a little more) I kind of expect Algeria to pull always with this one. They have a couple of Premier League and Ligue One players. There forward Ghezzal also plays for Siena. They seem to step up in the big games, they Egypt 1-0 in Egypt to make the World Cup. Then they beat Ivory Coast in the African Cup of Nations. I think this team can be very competitive and play brutal defense when it matters. I can see a 0-0 type game, but can also see Algeria beating Slovenia easily. I know most will disagree
                                                Comment
                                                • JOHON8
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 01-28-10
                                                  • 7712

                                                  #25
                                                  ^^

                                                  I saw a documentary on Algeria NT last night, they are definitely ready to upset in this group. For anyone who likes betting O/U cards, the Algeria - USA game should be a good one.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • suckerforparlays
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 02-15-10
                                                    • 4536

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Alexgurv
                                                    South Korea/Greece Draw +216 to bet 1 unit

                                                    Moving onto the June 12th games Group B starts. This is actually a tough matchup for me to predict. I don't play totals at all but if I had to the under would be the one I take. Both teams play a defensive style. S. Korea has some speedy players but Rehhagel says this team is going back to the defensive soccer that won them the Euro 2004 Championship.
                                                    hey Alex you see my picture??? Go Taeguk Warriors!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • constrictor
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 06-08-09
                                                      • 668

                                                      #27
                                                      Alex how u got so many points--from soccer bets?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Alexgurv
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-24-09
                                                        • 1770

                                                        #28
                                                        Serbia +115 to bet 1 unit

                                                        A pretty good team that I think will advance to the Round of 16. They have a very solid back, one of the best in the world. They have one of the best defenders in the world. With Antic leading the helm he will also have this team score making them IMO very dangerous. While Ghana just lost Essien which will hurt them a lot. They will also struggle to score goals. They havent scored more then one goal in a game since November 2009. In the African Cup of Nations, they advanced to the Finals, but still only scored 4 goals, with 3 of them coming from Gyan. Being on the home continent will help, but a great defensive Serbia team, and a young Ghana team with little offense, I expect Serbia to win.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Alexgurv
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-24-09
                                                          • 1770

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by constrictor
                                                          Alex how u got so many points--from soccer bets?
                                                          nop just post daily and don't spend them on anything, they add up
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Alexgurv
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-24-09
                                                            • 1770

                                                            #30
                                                            Germany -1 (-115) to win 1 unit

                                                            It's hard to ignore Germany's dominance in this situation. They always play well in the World Cup. They always get by the group stage. Even with injuries, Klose and Podolski are both capable of scoring goals. This is isn't the Germany of old but they are still capable of dominating. While I watched a bit of Australia against the USA last week (i'll be honest a very little) and I just wasn't impressed. To be honest I think Australia compares with the USA in a lot of ways. Even though they moved to the Asian confederation they still aren't playing great competition in Asia which I think they need, to play well in the World Cup. Not a good situation to have to open with Germany for Australia IMO. Think Germany wins by at least one here.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Alexgurv
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 10-24-09
                                                              • 1770

                                                              #31
                                                              Netherland -186 to win 1 unit

                                                              Juicy line but I'm willing to take it. Even with injuries this team offensively is unbelievable. They always play well early on in every major tournament. The question is how they will perform after the group stage. Even with a Robben injury, Van Persie seems to be playing great, and they have guys like Huntelaar coming off the bench. The team is simply offensively stacked. Denmark has played poorly of late in there friendlies. They've been shut out two games in a row and I just don't see how they hang with a team like Holland.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Alexgurv
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-24-09
                                                                • 1770

                                                                #32
                                                                Tough start today but only the first day, but as it turns out South Africa could hang with Mexico

                                                                Japan +0.5 -137 to win 1 unit

                                                                This should be an interesting game. Samuel Eto'o is the best player on the field in this game but other then him the scoring might struggle. There #1 problem won't be scoring but there defense. In the African Cup of Nations they gave up 8 goals . Japan doesn't really have any stars on the team. But there defense is good enough and I think they will do a lot of what Uruguay did against France and kind of sit back and at times try to counter attack. I for the most part expect this game to be a draw but going the safe route once again and taking the +0.5
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Alexgurv
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-24-09
                                                                  • 1770

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Paraguay +0.5 -122 to win 1 unit

                                                                  Another one that I'm sure I will be in the minority of. I think that Paraguay actually has a decent shot of winning the game. Italy is historically bad against South American teams and they are historically slow starters in major tournaments. The team is old and it plays tough. It plays a lot in the midfield and doesn't score a lot of goals. Paraguay is a team that can say that they beat Brazil and Argentina in the same year. I think there one struggle might be in the midfield, were Italy is strong. I think it will end up being a pretty evenly matched game and hopefully Paraguay sneaks a win.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Alexgurv
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-24-09
                                                                    • 1770

                                                                    #34
                                                                    so far, no good


                                                                    Ivory Coast +0.5 (-146) to win 1 unit

                                                                    The ball is bouncing too funny and people are missing chances they should have for me to go on ML on this though I really wanted too. Portugal is a good team but they have struggled the last couple of years without Scolari leading the way. Ronaldo didn't score at all in Euro qualifying. Nani was there best player but now hes out of the World Cup. The team overall has struggled as well. They picked it up towards the end of qualifying but at one point they went on a run of losing to Denmark and drawing with Sweden and Albania. They also couldn't find the back of the net, only scoring 1.6 goals per game. We are talking about teams like Malta and Albania. Teams like Portugal should crush these guys. Ivory Coast is favored to be the best team coming out of Africa. Drogba will play in this game and Kalou is a very capable striker as well. Both the Toure brothers are reliable as well. The team is older and more experienced and I think they have a pretty good shot at beating Portugal
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JOHON8
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 01-28-10
                                                                      • 7712

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I like the Paraguay play. Italy are without Pirlo and De Rossi might be coming back from injury. It's one of those games that if Paraguay play well they actually win with the potential they have.

                                                                      Ivory Coast is a solid play too, Drogba might be back to help them out, but I think Ronaldo needs to bring something special to save Portugal in this match.
                                                                      Comment
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