Denmark ML +435 - best value play of the opening round of the world cup!

[lakerboy]

Denmark are a solid team. The ML has incredible value. The pressure is on the Dutch and an opening game upset by the danes could turn this group on its head. The Danes did well in the qualifying and while the dutch qualified easily there group was not competitive. I have noticed in the past that the Danes start tourneys well before fading. The Danes have been in 3 world cups and have made it past the group stage all 3 times. It is of paramount importance for them to get a result in the opening game to move forward. At +1 the Danes are an easy play but im taking them on the ML now as i see this line dropping by gametime. It might be too early too make bets like this for some but not for me. Take a close look at this boys cause we all know how the Oranje struggle in big tourneys. Im not convinced the Dutch defenders and midfielders are good enough to handle the style the Danish bring to the table. Great value here.

[Mirar Baseball]

I just spent 10 minutes searching for the hockey line for Denmark vs Holland. Couldn't find it, since Denmark has USA Finland and Germany in their IIHF World Championship group.

But they did beat what I am assuming is a strong Team USA, must have been an upset.



This is what happens when you've just gone through a dozen baseball and hockey bets. It's now time to look at some soccer plays

[SRBI]

I really like this LB...you always got a way of pickin these gems out. Did you read this?

Denmark is returning to the World Cup tournament, and Nicklas Bendtner and his team mates want to continue the legacy of Preben Elkjær and the Laudrup brothers for another successful run in South Africa. Bendtner and his goals were crucial for Denmark during the qualifying round, and who can forget his hat-trick performance with Arsenal in the Champions League against Porto.

Both his coaches Morten Olsen in Denmark and Arsène Wenger in Arsenal have complete trust to the charismatic striker, with the latter supporting the player when British media doubted the abilities of the 22 year old player. Nicklas Bendtner wants to repeat the triumph of 1998 with Denmark, when the national team went all the way to the World Cup quarter-finals before getting eliminated by Brazil. The young player would also love to be the biggest goal scorer of the tournament, and he cannot hide his excitement.

“I am expecting some amazing performances in South Africa. If we do not go past the group stage it will be a huge disappointment, but if we make it to the next round anything could happen. According to the schedule most likely we will go against World Cup Champions Italy in the play-offs, this will be a huge test for Denmark. I want to help my country win the World Cup and be the top scorer of the competition! We do not have many options like the bigger teams, so it is important that all our good players are available. If everybody is healthy then we can definitely do something in this World Cup.”

Denmark will be participating for the fourth time in the World Cup, and the team has always qualified to the second round. Denmark is competing against Cameroon, Japan and the Netherlands in Group E of the tournament.

Encouraging to say the least

[diamond]

Wondering if Sorensen (goalie of Denmark will be ready). Btw, the danish and the dutch are quite similar when it comes to the supporters. Both are not happy just with the win, both also want their team to play entertaining soccer. Do not e x pekt any cynical style from the Danes.

[SRBI]

Can I also add that Denmark to qualify to R16 at +EV is a play?

Denmark is competing against Cameroon, Japan and the Netherlands in Group E of the tournament

...yeah, I'd say so. I'm thinking hard about investing in this one now, before it moves the wrong way any more...

[SRBI]

Wondering if Sorensen (goalie of Denmark will be ready). Btw, the danish and the dutch are quite similar when it comes to the supporters. Both are not happy just with the win, both also want their team to play entertaining soccer. Do not e x pekt any cynical style from the Danes.

Some info on Sorensen...

Injuries plague the Danish national team, with goalkeeper Thomas Sørensen’s being the most notable.

Stoke goalkeeper Thomas Sørensen tore a minor ligament in his elbow during his club’s Premier League match against Chelsea this past weekend – good news in so far as the damage could have been much worse.

Sørensen told he thinks he’ll be ready to play again when the Danish national team takes on The Netherlands in the teams’ first World Cup match on 14 June.

Fill-ins in the net, should Sørensen not be healthy by June, are FCK keeper Jesper Christiansen, Brøndby’s Stephan Andersen, and Kim Christensen of IFK Göteborg.

Two wild-card possibilities are Brian Jensen of Premier League club Burnley and Kasper Schmeichel, son of goalkeeping legend Peter Schmeichel.

The younger Schmeichel has been outstanding in goal for English third division club Notts County and is rumoured to soon be on his way to a top level club.

National team head coach Morten Olsen has said he will absolutely not take more than two goalkeepers with him to South Africa for the tournament. He said Sørensen is his obvious top choice, but would not comment on who is in line to be his replacement in the worst case scenario.

Sørensen is one of several Danes slated for a spot on the national roster who have been battling injuries that have kept them out of many of their club’s league games over the past two months. Daniel Agger, Jon Dahl Tomasson, Nicklas Bendtner, Leon Andreasen and Christian Poulsen have all been out for periods with injuries that can still jeopardise their World Cup participation.

More on Sorensen and the team...

The recovery of injured goalie Thomas Sorensen is making that much progress that Denmark coach Morten Olsen included him in his 30-man provisional World Cup squad.

Sorensen dislocated his elbow last month while playing for Premier League club Stoke and faces a race against the clock to be fit for the tournament in South Africa.

Other names in the squad include Feyenoord striker Jon Dahl Tomasson, Ajax winger Dennis Rommedahl and Liverpool defender Daniel Agger. Olsen also included veterans Christian Poulsen of Juventus and Martin Jorgensen who plays for Danish club Aarhus.

A less expected pick was 29-year-old Malaga defender Patrick Mtiliga, who has only played one match for Denmark. Olsen said Mtiliga was a team player who would fit in well with the Danish squad.

“A football team is like a symphony orchestra. There are of course soloists but the team should be able to hold the rhythm,” Olsen said.

Denmark has been drawn in Group E with the Netherlands, Japan and Cameroon. Olsen said he and assistant coach Peter Bonde have been studying their opponents’ most recent matches.

“It would surprise me if they completely change the way they play,” Olsen said.

Twenty-six players in the provisional squad were included for Denmark’s friendly against Senegal on May 27. Olsen said the remaining four are on “standby.”

Goalkeepers: Thomas Sorensen, (Stoke), Jesper Christiansen (Copenhagen), Kim Christensen (IFK Goteborg), Stephan Andersen (Brondby)

Defense: Daniel Agger (Liverpool), Lars Jacobsen (Blackburn Rovers), Patrick Mtiliga (Malaga), Per Kroldrup (Fiorentina), Simon Busk Poulsen (AZ Alkmaar), Simon Kjaer (Palermo), William Kvist Jorgensen (Copenhagen)

Midfielders: Christian Poulsen (Juventus), Christian D. Eriksen (Ajax), Daniel Jensen (Werder Bremen), Jakob Poulsen (Aarhus), Michael Silberbauer (Utrecht), Mikkel Beckmann (Randers), Thomas Enevoldsen (Groningen), Thomas Kahlenberg (Wolfsburg), Dennis Rommedahl (Ajax), Jesper Gronkjaer (Copenhagen), Martin Jorgensen (Aarhus), Michael Krohn-Dehli (Brondby)

Forwards: Jon Dahl Tomasson (Feyenoord), Nicklas Bendtner (Arsenal), Soren Larsen (Duisburg)

On standby: Anders Moller Christensen (Odense), Leon Jessen (Midtjylland), Mikkel Thygesen (Midtjylland), Morten Rasmussen (Celtic)

[diamond]

cheers.

[SRBI]

[lakerboy]

This play is good just for value purposes. The Danes should not be +435. The books will clean up here if Denmark wins. Lots of public bettors who only bet on big soccer events like this will take the Dutch big time.

[Jimmy0607]

Denmark is always good comes world cup time

[TheLock]

Interestingly enough, Denmark is like +315 at BetUs

[Brock Landers]

Are there Camel jockeys from Iran, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia in this thing?

[Justin7]

If I had to make a bet in this group, it would be Japan advance NO -345. Even if they win a game (amazingly) and push another, they are a big long shot to advance after goal differential. I have a small lean on under 2.5 points as well for them.

But Denmark to beat Netherlands? It's a longshot, and I don't see the value.

[minet123]

Are there Camel jockeys from Iran, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia in this thing?

[lakerboy]

If I had to make a bet in this group, it would be Japan advance NO -345. Even if they win a game (amazingly) and push another, they are a big long shot to advance after goal differential. I have a small lean on under 2.5 points as well for them.

But Denmark to beat Netherlands? It's a longshot, and I don't see the value.

Obviously its a longshot based on the odds but the odds are too high for 2 teams that arent that much apart. Lets see what happens.

[mlb]

This is why I love Lakerboy threads ... going to look into this .. thanks for the info and thanks for stirring up the World Cup

[fedtpels]

Had no idea LB was into soccer!? And now he's pushing my country. I agree that +435 is too high and so for value it's a great bet. The expectations here in Denmark are very high after finishing the qualifying on top ahead of Portugal and Sweden, but we're also aware that Holland are on a roll and not only in the qualifying - their playmakers, Robben (Bayern Munich) and Sneijder (Inter Milan) have had a great prelude to the World Cup (Both being in the Champions League Final).

I see a game where Dutch will dominate control of the ball, but those are usually the teams that Denmark do well against because it gives them space to counter attack. Looking at the group we would be more than pleased with a draw against Holland and then focus on beating Cameroun and Japan, but a win for Denmark is far from impossible and so +435 looks good to me.

[phenomenon]

Honestly I am only waiting Holland VS Denmark match to watch, this match will be the best match of tournament I guess... I think Denmark come to pitch for draw,they don t want to conciede goal(s) they will sure score IMO but the important thing is their defence...
draw is my fav. here ...

[michalis]

are you phukin crazy? denmark is a mediocre team at best, netherlands is and always is a star studded team with so many talented players that their bench at times appears to be better than the starting 11, and they are hungry for an international trophy

denmark could technically win, but to put any money on them? give that money to charity and help those in need rather than pay for your booky's dinner

[tonyhomo]

i dont see any value in betting denmark
if you think these teams are not far apart than you havent watched a lot of soccer in your life.

[Dark Horse]

Take a close look at this boys cause we all know how the Oranje struggle in big tourneys.

I don't remember them struggling in the big tournaments. They may have a hard time closing out tournaments, but that's a different story. Big tournaments: runner up in 1974 and 1978 World Cups (both times to home team); lost in semis in 1976 Euros. Winner Euro 1988. Early exit World Cup 1990. Out in semis (I believe) in Euro 1992. Lost 2-3 to Brazil in quarter finals 1994 WC. Lost after penalty kicks in semifinal to Brazil in 1998 WC. Lost 2000 Euro semis after pk's to Italy. Had a very strong start two years ago at the 2008 Euros, beating both WC finalists Italy and France by three goals, but lost in OT to Russia (newbie coach van Basten was totally outcoached by Dutch coach Hiddink, who knew Oranje inside out).

If anything, the Dutch style gives these players an advantage early in the tournament. Where teams like Italy typically find their form during the tournament and start out slow, the Dutch already know exactly how they will play.

The Danes are tough and physical, but lack finesse. They don't have world class players like Robben, Sneijder, or Van Persie. Much depends on the Dutch defense. If they are solid, as they were during qualifying, this team is in my top three.

[jayc88]

lb i dont see any value here,
denmark is just an average squad which is not that much better than cameroon or japan, and netherlands are on of the title contenders.
Denmark will not get more than a draw from this match and most likely lose.

[Josu]

Netherlands are the better team by far, Denmark will be lucky to escape with a draw. I do think they will qualify from the group by beating both Cameroon and Japan though. Netherlands will win all their games in their group. Denmark during the qualifying stages were nothing impressive. More luck and fighting spirit then skill. And their toughest opponents during the qualifying, Portugal and Sweden both sucked during the qualifying stages. Terrible showing by both teams.

Denmark will advance from the group, and then be eliminated in the first knockout round.

[SRBI]

This play is good just for value purposes. The Danes should not be +435. The books will clean up here if Denmark wins. Lots of public bettors who only bet on big soccer events like this will take the Dutch big time.

You know I was thinkin about this...and I do see your point on the last part where public betters who only bet on big soccer events would take the Dutch, but I honestly think that those "public bettors" will really overlook this match for the most part and instead hit a more popular team, like Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Spain, Germany, etc. in the opening round.

I know squares, I do test runs on them and just have a strange feeling Netherlands won't be one of their first picks.

Just a thought G...

[SRBI]

Denmark during the qualifying stages were nothing impressive. More luck and fighting spirit then skill.

Luck and fighting spirit, that can get you to the finals, or at least semi-finals

Just look at Yugoslavia in WC 1930 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_FIFA_World_Cup

[lakerboy]

I don't remember them struggling in the big tournaments. They may have a hard time closing out tournaments, but that's a different story. Big tournaments: runner up in 1974 and 1978 World Cups (both times to home team); lost in semis in 1976 Euros. Winner Euro 1988. Early exit World Cup 1990. Out in semis (I believe) in Euro 1992. Lost 2-3 to Brazil in quarter finals 1994 WC. Lost after penalty kicks in semifinal to Brazil in 1998 WC. Lost 2000 Euro semis after pk's to Italy. Had a very strong start two years ago at the 2008 Euros, beating both WC finalists Italy and France by three goals, but lost in OT to Russia (newbie coach van Basten was totally outcoached by Dutch coach Hiddink, who knew Oranje inside out).

If anything, the Dutch style gives these players an advantage early in the tournament. Where teams like Italy typically find their form during the tournament and start out slow, the Dutch already know exactly how they will play.

The Danes are tough and physical, but lack finesse. They don't have world class players like Robben, Sneijder, or Van Persie. Much depends on the Dutch defense. If they are solid, as they were during qualifying, this team is in my top three.

The dutch have failed to win any tourney ever with some of the most talented teams of all time.They have been to only the 1990/1994/1998 and 2006 world cups since there great total football teams in the 1970's. There performance at italia 90 was a disgrace. They couldt even beat egypt or ireland in the group stage. They lost in euro 92 to Denmark(who won the tourney). They barely beat Saudi Arabia in usa 94 and lost to belgium in the group stage but did okay after that. They lost there opening match to belgium at france 98 as well. 2002 they didnt even qualify with all that talent. They are beatable in this game and i feel Denmark will give them a tough game. The Dutch never live up to expectations and thats sad considering they are always fancied.

[lakerboy]

i dont see any value in betting denmark
if you think these teams are not far apart than you havent watched a lot of soccer in your life.

Not surprised coming from you. At least present an argument other then saying Holland is better. Jeez we see the odds we kind of figure that they have more talent. I have watched every world cup since 1978. How about yourself ?

[LinWin]

I'm from Denmark and I followed the team in the qualification.
It's true it's an average team and Holland should win. I will wait with
putting money on any teams until at least the first game has been played.

[michalis]

I have this to say to you my man:

Robin van Persie
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Arjen Robben
Ryan Babel
Dirk Kuyt
Wesley Sneijder
Rafael van der Vaart
Nigel de Jong
Mark van Bommel
Giovanni van Bronckhorst

Go check out the rest of the squad, you cant go against a team with so much talent

[pavyracer]

Too early to make a call. I usually make a bet on WC games 20 minutes before kick off after studying the line formations and starting line-ups. You can tell from the formations if a team will play for a draw or a win which is the case with Denmark being such a big underdog.

[Justin7]

Too early to make a call. I usually make a bet on WC games 20 minutes before kick off after studying the line formations and starting line-ups. You can tell from the formations if a team will play for a draw or a win which is the case with Denmark being such a big underdog.

Interesting insight.

Pavy, how do you interpret formations regarding playing to tie or win? Is it just based on the number of forwards/strikers and defensive backs?

[lakerboy]

I have this to say to you my man:

Robin van Persie
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Arjen Robben
Ryan Babel
Dirk Kuyt
Wesley Sneijder
Rafael van der Vaart
Nigel de Jong
Mark van Bommel
Giovanni van Bronckhorst

Go check out the rest of the squad, you cant go against a team with so much talent

Okay thanks for the advice. BTW did you bet on Real Madrid to beat Lyon in the second leg?

[pavyracer]

Interesting insight.

Pavy, how do you interpret formations regarding playing to tie or win? Is it just based on the number of forwards/strikers and defensive backs?

Justin,

If a team plays with only 1 forward 4-5-1 formation or other variations with 1 forward they are playing not to lose meaning they wouldn't mind taking up one point for the draw.

If a team plays with 2 forwards or 3, (4-3-3, 4-4-2, 3-4-3, or 3-5-2) formations they will seek to score goals meaning they are playing to win.

90% of my over/under plays are based on the starting formations. Also you got to look up who is available on the bench for subs. If the coach puts all his strong players in the starting eleven and doesn't leave any good ones on the bench it means he is going for the win in the first half so that will influence your HT bets.

Also you got to look at the amount of defensive midfielders in the second number of the formation. If 2 of the 3 or 4 midfielders are defensive midfielders it will be hard to break them down or them creating any scoring chances.

[lakerboy]

Justin,

If a team plays with only 1 forward 4-5-1 formation or other variations with 1 forward they are playing not to lose meaning they wouldn't mind taking up one point for the draw.

If a team plays with 2 forwards or 3, (4-3-3, 4-4-2, 3-4-3, or 3-5-2) formations they will seek to score goals meaning they are playing to win.

90% of my over/under plays are based on the starting formations. Also you got to look up who is available on the bench for subs. If the coach puts all his strong players in the starting eleven and doesn't leave any good ones on the bench it means he is going for the win in the first half so that will influence your HT bets.

Also you got to look at the amount of defensive midfielders in the second number of the formation. If 2 of the 3 or 4 midfielders are defensive midfielders it will be hard to break them down or them creating any scoring chances.

Good information Pavy. In this match for this thread it will be pretty obvious that Denmark will look to counterattack and i can see them playing a 4-4-1-1 formation type scheme. Holland will dominate possession and the Danes will get 1 chance and score- happens all the time in soccer at the big tourneys.

[polsefest]

I like them at +1 handicap

I don't think that is that easy of a play, but do you think that will get another half-goal by kick off time?