Denmark ML +435 - best value play of the opening round of the world cup!

[Justin7]

Good stuff, Pavy.

Why do you have points disabled?

Also... How have you done betting soccer (generally)?

[pavyracer]

Good information Pavy. In this match for this thread it will be pretty obvious that Denmark will look to counterattack and i can see them playing a 4-4-1-1 formation type scheme. Holland will dominate possession and the Danes will get 1 chance and score- happens all the time in soccer at the big tourneys.

Good stuff. But you may want to place maybe a small bet now on the Denmark line you like and wait to see what happens in the next 4 weeks. Let me give you an example. Most teams starting on Monday of next week are starting a 3 week minicamp to prepare for the World Cup. During that time the rosters and finalized and some players actually get hurt in training. So you don't want to take a chance on Denmark now and then find out before the game starts that their best goalkeeper or forward is unavailable for that game.

[pavyracer]

Good stuff, Pavy.

Why do you have points disabled?

Also... How have you done betting soccer (generally)?

I asked John to disable them. Long story..

I did well in soccer but I don't have a spreadsheet documenting my results year long like you guys like to see.

If you remember I had a thread during Euro 2008 here and did well with all the plays documented. I know you like to bet props and I also bet props on the WC. Looking at the formation again will help you bet on props regarding corner kicks and offsides. Also look at the ref to see if he has a history of giving yellow cards in numbers or if he is more lenient.

[kmarinouofm]

my favorite bet of the opening round is USA +1.5 vs England .. u can't even find the +1.5 in any US books anymore

[knightof7]

Alrite I'm on it

[IrishTim]

I asked John to disable them. Long story..

I did well in soccer but I don't have a spreadsheet documenting my results year long like you guys like to see.

If you remember I had a thread during Euro 2008 here and did well with all the plays documented. I know you like to bet props and I also bet props on the WC. Looking at the formation again will help you bet on props regarding corner kicks and offsides. Also look at the ref to see if he has a history of giving yellow cards in numbers or if he is more lenient.

Do you have a good source for ref information?

[michalis]

Okay thanks for the advice. BTW did you bet on Real Madrid to beat Lyon in the second leg?

I bet them to qualify, how about you? stop being so smug

[facasto]

Best Bet? Italy out 1st round

[Sanka]

Oranje's attacking force is too much for the Danes too handle. I'm expecting van Persie to play a great tournament after his injury, maybe even similar to van Basten in '88. I'm not expecting us to win the world cup though, to win a tournament like this you need to have a strong defense, which we lack.

I'm not saying Denmark will not score against us, I'm just expecting us to score more. Will probably play the ML in this match, but I'm thinking about the -1 European Handicap +230 and over 3,5 goals +260.

[pavyracer]

Do you have a good source for ref information?

I found a list of the appointed referees from FIFA for this World Cup. This is where we need people who have seen these refs in action to chime in. I will look for more info.

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/01/16/67/00/trios2010fwcfeb20106p.pdf

[lakerboy]

I bet them to qualify, how about you? stop being so smug

I didnt bet that tie. I am not being smug but you are basing everything on talent. The danes play well against big name teams. Its not all about talent otherwise we could easily bet on that basis. Dont discount the danes- they play well in big matches.

[StewiE]

hey pavyracer are u gonna have a thread this world cup ?

[looch10]

Best Bet? Italy out 1st round

never.

[michalis]

I didnt bet that tie. I am not being smug but you are basing everything on talent. The danes play well against big name teams. Its not all about talent otherwise we could easily bet on that basis. Dont discount the danes- they play well in big matches.

I actually did a quick search and found at least one thread where you said with all implied confidence that real would beat lyon by a big margin so I assume you must have bet real

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-handicapping/372427-champions-league-march-9-10-a.html

if you didnt actually bet on them you shouldnt go around telling people real will win, I know you are aware that people follow you and I am sure people put money on real because of your statement

and you definately should not be calling me out for putting my money on real since you either had your money on them as well or urged others directly or indirectly to do so with their money

and if talent is not a reason to bet on a team then what is? strategy? holland usually is a team that plays good tactics and sensible soccer, nomatter who the coach is, they are disciplined

denmark is outclassed in this match, they could win, but I consider that putting money on them is like playing craps, you have to rely on chance to win

[warriorfan707]

Waste of money

[lakerboy]

I actually did a quick search and found at least one thread where you said with all implied confidence that real would beat lyon by a big margin so I assume you must have bet real

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-handicapping/372427-champions-league-march-9-10-a.html

if you didnt actually bet on them you shouldnt go around telling people real will win, I know you are aware that people follow you and I am sure people put money on real because of your statement

and you definately should not be calling me out for putting my money on real since you either had your money on them as well or urged others directly or indirectly to do so with their money

and if talent is not a reason to bet on a team then what is? strategy? holland usually is a team that plays good tactics and sensible soccer, nomatter who the coach is, they are disciplined

denmark is outclassed in this match, they could win, but I consider that putting money on them is like playing craps, you have to rely on chance to win

Honestly this thread wasnt meant to argue with you but you have turned this thread into that. Just because i said real will cruise it doesnt mean i bet them and if people followed my statement by making a bet on real thats absurd. I doubt anyone follows statements of thoughts of a game and goes and makes bets- jeez.

Anyways lets see what happens in this match. Am i to assume that you are playing the dutch at -135ml- i mean based on talent that is a pretty good line and not that expensive.

[michalis]

Okay thanks for the advice. BTW did you bet on Real Madrid to beat Lyon in the second leg?

Honestly this thread wasnt meant to argue with you but you have turned this thread into that. Just because i said real will cruise it doesnt mean i bet them and if people followed my statement by making a bet on real thats absurd. I doubt anyone follows statements of thoughts of a game and goes and makes bets- jeez.

Anyways lets see what happens in this match. Am i to assume that you are playing the dutch at -135ml- i mean based on talent that is a pretty good line and not that expensive.

this thread wasnt meant to argue with me? but in your first reply to me you felt the need to talk down at my intelligence and/or my betting skills by referencing a match in which you either bet on the losing side or predicted on the loosing side to win, assuming I wouldnt think of looking it up and calling you on it

and coming onto the board and saying a team will cruise to victory before the game and saying you didnt have money on it after the fact is just plain insulting, you want me to believe you had a sure thing and didnt put money on it?

And in regards to your final question, I know I said holland will win, but I think I will wait until after the game and then I'll let you know if I put money on it or not

[JOHON8]

Too many people are on Netherland's balls. Denmark has beaten the likes of Portugal away from home, have a rock solid WC qualifying record and are in the WC instead of Sweden. They can easily pull an upset against better players with tactics. This isn't indoor football, Robben can do as many step overs as he likes in the center of the field.

If I could pick a winner it would obviously be Netherlands, but Lakerboy's point is that if there is an upset, which is likely, then the price is right on Denmark. Netherlands need to be almost 100% to close out teams like Denmark.

By the way stop with the negativity, if you got problems at home don't bring it on here. thanks

[michalis]

Too many people are on Netherland's balls. Denmark has beaten the likes of Portugal away from home, have a rock solid WC qualifying record and are in the WC instead of Sweden. They can easily pull an upset against better players with tactics. This isn't indoor football, Robben can do as many step overs as he likes in the center of the field.

If I could pick a winner it would obviously be Netherlands, but Lakerboy's point is that if there is an upset, which is likely, then the price is right on Denmark. Netherlands need to be almost 100% to close out teams like Denmark.

By the way stop with the negativity, if you got problems at home don't bring it on here. thanks

sweden? sweden is not better than Denmark, it is no shocker they were disqualified,

their best player is not even swedish and he said he doesnt want to play for the national team anymore cause they are a dead end team

they have some decent players that play in competitive teams, but many of them play in medium/bad leagues/teams and some are still playing just to make a quick buck before they retire *cough*melberg*cough*


Portugal? portugal was never a football powerhouse, they have never won anything, heck, this is only the 5th time they have qualified to play in a world cup

their best international result was runner-up in the 2004 Euro, in the final in their HOME GROUND against GREECE and they choked, they are the cavaliers of soccer and ronaldo is lebron

[fedtpels]

Too many people are on Netherland's balls. Denmark has beaten the likes of Portugal away from home, have a rock solid WC qualifying record and are in the WC instead of Sweden. They can easily pull an upset against better players with tactics. This isn't indoor football, Robben can do as many step overs as he likes in the center of the field.

If I could pick a winner it would obviously be Netherlands, but Lakerboy's point is that if there is an upset, which is likely, then the price is right on Denmark. Netherlands need to be almost 100% to close out teams like Denmark.

By the way stop with the negativity, if you got problems at home don't bring it on here. thanks

A very good point JOHON.

Mich, maybe you don't consider Sweden a very good team and I actually agree with you. I don't know what country you're from, but as a Dane let me tell you that there's nothing easy about beating Sweden away or at home. It's one of those games where the rivalry usually evens it out.
As for Portugal I don't think it's fair to label them as a weak team. They have amazing players that sometimes struggle with playing together for Portugal, but I think they showed for the last couple of years that they deserve a lot more credit. Denmark is not even that good, but they fight and play as a team which is gonna win them games, but let's not discard their qualifying round as a small bump in the road. They can very well end up sucking big time in the World Cup.

As I said earlier, I don't expect Denmark to win this game, but for value it looks pretty good right now.

[michalis]

A very good point JOHON.

Mich, maybe you don't consider Sweden a very good team and I actually agree with you. I don't know what country you're from, but as a Dane let me tell you that there's nothing easy about beating Sweden away or at home. It's one of those games where the rivalry usually evens it out.
As for Portugal I don't think it's fair to label them as a weak team. They have amazing players that sometimes struggle with playing together for Portugal, but I think they showed for the last couple of years that they deserve a lot more credit. Denmark is not even that good, but they fight and play as a team which is gonna win them games, but let's not discard their qualifying round as a small bump in the road. They can very well end up sucking big time in the World Cup.

As I said earlier, I don't expect Denmark to win this game, but for value it looks pretty good right now.

I agree, working as a team is more important than the individual players

all Im saying is that holland has freakish talent and I would not put money on any team that faces them

[Tommy_de1st]

I can agree with one thing. This bet is very good for the value purpopses. I cant see danes past Holland but the odds are definitely gonna change in Holland favour so you can hedge the bet and get the profit anyways.
I rate Dutch team same as Japan and Cameroon, they are solid , thats all

[lakerboy]

I agree, working as a team is more important than the individual players

all Im saying is that holland has freakish talent and I would not put money on any team that faces them

So even if they faced Brazil or Spain or Argentina you would bet on Holland?

[HCBoone]

Holland always start very good, winning in blowouts then they crash out.

But Denmark is a well organized team, I can see a draw here, but not Denmark to win. Might be worth a longshot though but I think Holland will be Holland in this summer as well, meaning great games in their group and people will talk about their great offense and then they get knocked out in the quarter finals.