Spain/United States 6.24
I wont be laying the chalk on Spain even though it's solid as it comes. I'll be surprised if the US scores.
Spain Double Result (-150)
Spain Double Result (-150)
-
-
I lean Spain -1.5 (-120).
USA is outmatched here.Comment -
Spain (to advance to finals) -935
I can't see anyway US advancesComment -
Any value here?
Anytime goalscorer:
Landon Donovan +500
I think Landon will be taking some shots this game after being too unselfish recently. He is probably the US's best chance to score and if there is a penalty, he will take it.Comment -
No. He can't score in the run of play so you're depending on the US to get a PK. If you think the odds of them getting one are higher than 20%, then it is good value... but I don't remember the last time Casillas let one in, let alone Spain even giving one up.
What odds are they giving on Bradley? He's the guy who scores the Lampard type goals for the US. Dempsey and Adu are the only ones who can actually create their own shots off the dribble.Comment -
Team Total Betting
USA
OVER 0.5 +117
UNDER 0.5 -137
The betting market favors the US not scoring at all. Spain just possesses the ball to well. US will not get any breaks in this match from the ref's unless it is very obvious.Comment -
These lines are from sportsbook.com, I'm sure you could find better
Bradley +1200
Dempsey +400
Adu +900
**Fernando Torres -125 is worth a shotComment -
This game could go Under 2.5 goals if U.S.A deploys the same tactics used by Iraq and South Africa, Spain has problems breaking down teams who sit back and close down. USA should play a 4-5-1 formation, play hard and aggressive, chase down Spain like wild dogs in the midfield, disrupt the game and get physical.
Spain play like Barcelona but are lacking the creative explosion of a Messi and Iniesta as he is currently injured. If you can't match them for skill then don't try to play their game, USA should take watch the Barcelona-Chelsea games in detail. Iraq did their homework, with a very weak team they made life difficult for Spain and only lost by one goal.
The only problem is, USA lets in goals every game, they are going to have to urgently repair the holes or the ships going to sink pretty fast come match day.
The best chance is to play a very cautious game, break fast on counter attacks, try to snatch a goal and sit on it, if not get to penalties were its anybodies game.Comment -
The USA didn't play a 4-5-1 against Brazil when a draw would've been a great result. Why would they EVER play a 4-5-1 in an elimination game?Comment -
When playing Brazil, especially the way Brazil is playing now you can't let them come on to you. They are far more creative, physical and attacking minded than Spain especially when the Spanish are without Iniesta. If you watch the Brazil games again you will see how they hardly ever play the ball backwards and its very rare to see them pass the ball back to the keeper when keeping position.Dwest718
The USA didn't play a 4-5-1 against Brazil when a draw would've been a great result. Why would they EVER play a 4-5-1 in an elimination game?
Spain on the other hand are far more happy to just keep the ball even if they arn't causing a threat with it, they do alot more build up play. Spain sometimes play as if they are on a loop, they will keep repeating the same moves and pass the ball until their opponent gets dizzy.
Its harder for Spain to break down teams that sit back than it is for Brazil. But its also harder to score against Spain than against Brazil.
U.S.A usually plays a 4-4-2 with the fullbacks getting forward, they can't play like that against Spain, the wingers will be more defensively minded. U.S.A held out well against Italy until the red-card. Discipline is a problem for the team, they have moments of sloppy play and acts of madness. The manager if he's any good would have the team working on these weaknesses and drill the importance of having 100% concentration in defense tomorrow.Comment -
The fact is... they played like that against Brazil so they WILL play like that against Spain. It's not a matter of what you think they should do or not. You can't bet on something you think might happen... the US has been playing an attacking 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 all tournament. They will not change that for this game. Don't bet the under just because you think they will play a defensive 4-4-2 against Spain. Bet the under because you think they will be tired and not score and Spain will win 2-0.Comment -
Karay your write ups and analysis are pretty sick. Good job pal. Keep it coming!Originally posted by SBR_JohnComment -
I doubt US crosses midfield. I see a 3-0 Spain win.Comment -
Spain wins games in the midfield, if you disrupt their midfield it hurts their game, last time USA played Spain which was last summer this is exactly what the team did and only lost 1-0. Now that game was a friendly but it shows they can adapt to playing different teams. A team does not play the same in every game against every opposition. The typical US game style is an open game but they do adapt when needed.Dwest
The fact is... they played like that against Brazil so they WILL play like that against Spain.
Spain will control the ball for most of the game, I don't see USA getting much possession, if USA is to get anything from this game they have to clamp down the midfield. US team is stronger than New Zealand, South Africa and Iraq, Spain hasn't been tested yet in this competition and they have lacked flair and creativity without Iniesta.
Another angle to look at in this game is the referee, none other than the hot-head Jorge LARRIONDA, anybody who doesn't remember this guy should look back to the Italy-USA world cup 2006, he sent off about half the players on the pitch... 4 yellow cards and 3 red cards, last season in the Copa Libertadores he handed out an average of 4 yellow cards again. Also, South American referees tend to be power crazed, they like to assert their control on the game, in big games the games are often always stopping and starting due to the ref blowing his whistle alot and being fussy. This could help USA as it can disrupt Spains passing rhythm if the game keeps stopping. However, the ref could also be a problem as the team have discipline issues and make rash tackled.
This ref isn't scared to show a red card and in competition games there is likely to be passion and due to Spains playing style quite a few fouls.
There could be a few yellow cards in this game even a red.Last edited by Karayilan9; 06-23-09, 07:33 PM.Comment -
Betting the over with insurance..might go fukin crazy tomorrow..too much potential not to take a shot..
Over 2.5 (-120) 360>300
Exact Score 2-0 Spain (+450) 80>360
Spain Double Result (-150) 150>100
Spain Win to nil (-117) 117>100Comment -
I would never bet a bet that would nullify another. If you like 2-0 bet the under.Comment -
The blowout possibility worries me, i bet the 2-0 for insurance because I think it's the most likely under score to occur but I can't limit myself to the under.
A few things concern me in this game
US confidence after scoring 3 vs. Egypt, no one gives them any chance to win so there is no pressure. The fact that Egypt didn't score boosts the defense too after giving up 3 to Italy and Brazil. I understand Egypt isn't on the same level as Spain, Italy, and Brazil but confidence goes a long way.
The US's last 7 games have gone over 2.5
The meeting last year that Spain won 1-0 on a late goal.Last edited by bostonbruins; 06-23-09, 08:38 PM.Comment -
Well, I was just checking to see what a parlay of Spain -1.5 and Brazil -1.5 would pay, and I hit "Confirm" instead of "Cancel". So I'm in for $108.75 to pay $257.45.
Oh well, good luck to all of us.Comment -
The US doesn't bunker. Maybe they should, but they don't. And especially, if they get down 1-0, they'll really go full out attack.
They didn't even bunker when up 1-0 on Italy and down a player. They didn't even bunker late in the Egypt game.
Spain is great at, and experienced at, beating good teams straight up and weaker teams who are bunkering. They've probably never played a weaker team which will take it to them. They'll be in for the shock of their lives.
Spain is my favorite team to watch, but they're in an emotional no-win spot here. The only thing going for them--and it's a big thing, I admit--is that FIFA almost always cheats the US, and here is under extra pressure to do so because they desperately want the dream matchup of Spain-Brazil in the final.
US +1.5 -102 at 5Dimes.
over 2.5 -119, same place.
I only fear Spain 2-0, but it's a fear I'll overcome.
1/2 unit to boot on US pk, +1149.
US shocks the bridge-jumpers, the fave-players, the crowd-followers and the skirt-wearers in this one.Comment -
This ref famously does what Seth Blatter tells him to do. He gives FIFA the results they want; FIFA assigns him to key games. He scratches their back; they scratch his. He's assigned this game for a reason: to make sure the dream matchup of Spain vs Brazil isn't disturbed.
I now officially regret my bet of the post just above. Wow, just wow, that a guy who so openly and proudly cheated the US last WC is assigned this game. Just, wow.
This is like letting the Klan ref a BYU-Georgetown basketball game.
FIFA: Fugging Idiot Flop AllowersComment -
This is like letting the Klan ref a BYU-Georgetown basketball game.
That is one of the funniest lines I've ever read.Comment -
Can they cause the mother of all upsetsPokerJoe
1/2 unit to boot on US pk, +1149.
US shocks the bridge-jumpers, the fave-players, the crowd-followers and the skirt-wearers in this one.
if they were to beat Spain this would be the best time with them missing Iniesta and Senna. Its a very unlikely event but nobody thought the team would be here.
The odds for between 3-4 yellow cards are +200, for over 4 yellow cards its +150. US will have to play physical, the referee is famous for painting the pitch yellow and red with his cards and has a history against USA. Its really worrying how many red cards the team get in big games. The style Spain play, USA will have to be physical and disrupt the defense, there could be alot of fouling going on and with this ref that could mean a few yellows. If a goal is scored in the first half and US is chasing the game there is a high possibility of a few cards being shown.PokerJoe
This ref famously does what Seth Blatter tells him to do. He gives FIFA the results they want; FIFA assigns him to key games. He scratches their back; they scratch his. He's assigned this game for a reason: to make sure the dream matchup of Spain vs Brazil isn't disturbed.
I now officially regret my bet of the post just above. Wow, just wow, that a guy who so openly and proudly cheated the US last WC is assigned this game. Just, wow.
This is like letting the Klan ref a BYU-Georgetown basketball game.
FIFA: Fugging Idiot Flop Allowers
This guy is like the Judge Dredd of referees, he can be very harsh, the guy loves dishing them out and blowing his whistle every few minutes. He's been involved in alot of controversy, from World Cup matches to Copa Libertadores to being involved in corruption charges. But he's a good friend to Fifa who can't get enough of the guy.Last edited by Karayilan9; 06-23-09, 09:53 PM.Comment -
Spain doesn't need ref's help to beat the USA. Spain is the best team in the tournament.Comment -
but brazil will win because its really hot thereComment -
Johannesurg, South Africa:
Longitude:
26 12 S
Latitude:
28 4 E
Comment -
I obv. rooting for USA, but will bet on Spain.
Love Brazil on Thursday as well, I know both are HUGE Favs, but they are eqasy bets IMO.
Spain over Brazil in finalsComment -
No one wants to pay the inflated price on Spain even though they seem like a lock...the goal line is also a bit much for Spain to cover at -1.5 ... USA has a way of showing up against big teams when they are huge dogs.. they also have a tendency to follow up a good outing with another good outing... i think they will be playing hard and have a shot at winning this game.. i think in the end the smart play is the over at 2.5 I see the final score 2 to 1 ..Comment -
i like the over 2.5 TOTALComment
