Keep mondays in mind guys, Germany 2. Bundesliga PART II

[zizoudane10]

You already know how this works guys:

Monday=drawday in the 2. Bundesliga.

Always has been that way, it's proved to be highly +EV.

We are betting every single draw of a monday game in here. Always 1 unit. We don't look at the games, we don't give a flying fukk about the odds. We simply bet them and be in the green at the end of the season.

1st game of the season, 22.07.2013:

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Energie Cottbus, x @3.66 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

[zizoudane10]

Also, we can keep a record for the under. We could hypothetically bet them as well with 1 unit, no matter what the odds are to see if it might be profitable or not. (I myself am only playing the x, but I will list the record for unders as well here, just to see how it works out at the end of the season).

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Energie Cottbus, under 2.5 @1.91 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

[theballsflop]

'Monday=drawday in the 2. Bundesliga.

Always has been that way, it's proved to be highly +EV.'

Sorry for being a noob, but which system is this? Never read of it before

[zizoudane10]

'Monday=drawday in the 2. Bundesliga.

Always has been that way, it's proved to be highly +EV.'

Sorry for being a noob, but which system is this? Never read of it before

Quoting my opening post from last years thread:

Another draw this monday between 1860 Munich and Erzgebirge Aue.
Now here's the thing: games on mondays are on free television here. But I hate to watch them, because most of the time, they are boring, lowscoring AND are ending in a draw. Time to take a closer look at it: This season there were 8 games on monday until now, 6 of them ended in a draw! Odds were always around 3.8
If we have a closer look at the last 34 games on a monday: 17 of them ended in a draw! Smells like value to me.
So remember guys: monday=drawday in 2. Bundesliga

You can check all the last years back, how many draws there were and what the odds have been for them. It was always profitable. So we bet them just blind. That's all. We have a samplesize, we know it is profitable since years, so we don't give a flying fukk about the monday games, we don't analyze them, we don't look for information, we just bet them no matter what. Every single game on a monday in the 2. Bundesliga in Germany. Only those, nothing more, nothing less.

[theballsflop]

Tyvm for the kind explanation!

[zizoudane10]

Remember though: We only bet the draw. We keep track of the under every monday as well, but we don't bet them for now. I have done the math for the past years for the draw, didn't do it for the under. I think it might be profitable, but it is very well possible that it is not because the odds are too bad to be profitable. We will see about that.

EDIT: No prob pal, you're welcome!

[Vaughany]

If my data is correct there were 26 games played on a Monday night last season in 2. Bundesliga, and 14 of these games ended up being draws (53.84%). So based on draw odds being +250 (just random, no idea if that is the average odds) and bet $100 on each one you'd of ended up with $2,300 profit.

Season before it wasnt as high percentage, with 12 draws out of 30 games (40%)...still would of made slight profit tho I guess, especially as a lot of the Monday games seemed to feature Dusseldorf and Frankfurt who both ended up getting promoted. That is one variable to consider - the bigger clubs that are battling for promotion seem to be on Monday nights more, I guess for TV purposes? Like Hertha played on a Monday night quite a few times last season, and also Koln

[zizoudane10]

If my data is correct there were 26 games played on a Monday night last season in 2. Bundesliga, and 14 of these games ended up being draws (53.84%). So based on draw odds being +250 (just random, no idea if that is the average odds) and bet $100 on each one you'd of ended up with $2,300 profit

Also I would like to ask you guys for something:
It might be possible from time to time that I do not find the time to post the monday games. In this case it would be great if someone would post the game and the odds, so we don't miss out on a single game this season. Thx in advance guys!

[Akatana]

Hi Zizou great thread and great reminder for a really profitable trend! Will definitely be involved in this one starting from today.

I just wanted to start a thread to tell everyone that Clubs like Bayern Munich or Dortmund Or even other very consistent clubs for example can be looked at in the same way as a long term investment. For example even now from Bayern's friendly games we have seen that they haven't changed much from last season if anything they've even improved. Now they even have Mario Gotze and others for even more strength, tbh i wanted to do this way earlier, but i was stupid not to. But i'm going to look at Bayern's stats all of them for the whole season and do some trend analysis, this is a perfect opportunity to look at for example with Bayern for long term EV+ because they're going to be just as consistent this season. But from what we know already for example they score a ton of goals they are deadly so for instance we can do some calculations of the stats and odds for the over's in the Bayern's graph and see what we can come up with any ideas about that would be appreciated. I think some of these big clubs can be very profitable if you consider betting certain specific trends of them long term with a blind eye, i know a lot of modelers do these things but so can anyone else, it takes knowledge and good analysis with calculations.

[Vaughany]

yes, I think just playing the asian handicap -1.5 or -2 on Bayern each week would yield great results!

Or with Dortmund the Over 3 every game

[Akatana]

Hi Zizou great thread and great reminder for a really profitable trend! Will definitely be involved in this one starting from today.

I just wanted to start a thread to tell everyone that Clubs like Bayern Munich or Dortmund Or even other very consistent clubs for example can be looked at in the same way as a long term investment. For example even now from Bayern's friendly games we have seen that they haven't changed much from last season if anything they've even improved. Now they even have Mario Gotze and others for even more strength, tbh i wanted to do this way earlier, but i was stupid not to. But i'm going to look at Bayern's stats all of them for the whole season and do some trend analysis, this is a perfect opportunity to look at for example with Bayern for long term EV+ because they're going to be just as consistent this season. But from what we know already for example they score a ton of goals they are deadly so for instance we can do some calculations of the stats and odds for the over's in the Bayern's graph and see what we can come up with any ideas about that would be appreciated. I think some of these big clubs can be very profitable if you consider betting certain specific trends of them long term with a blind eye, i know a lot of modelers do these things but so can anyone else, it takes knowledge and good analysis with calculations.

From very simple trend analysis and odds calculations it could be seen that, let's say Bayern's overs for example: If you were to blindly and consistently bet the over 2.5 over a season unless you have a gigantic bank and are employing progressive betting, it's not going to be profitable. But they can be profitable if you design a short term project with progressive betting. On the other hand the over 3.5 will be fairly profitable. But this is subject to more accurate analysis and project planning, i just wanted to give the simple idea of how it would be.

[swordsandtequila]

Remember though: We only bet the draw. We keep track of the under every monday as well, but we don't bet them for now. I have done the math for the past years for the draw, didn't do it for the under. I think it might be profitable, but it is very well possible that it is not because the odds are too bad to be profitable. We will see about that.

EDIT: No prob pal, you're welcome!

Zizou, how many years back did you analyze? Thanks.

[ghislaine]

Good sh#t. Gotta love those +240 - +330 odds

[Vaughany]

Zizou, how many years back did you analyze? Thanks.

2012/2013: 53.84%
2011/2012: 40%
2010/2011: 26.66%
2009/2010: 16.13%
2008/2009: 25%
2007/2008: 48%

34.93% of Monday night games on average ended in a draw over past 6 seasons.

[swordsandtequila]

Thanks Vaughany! Played today's game @ +266 (5Dimes). Gonna keep a spreadsheet to track these games, will post each week. Good luck everyone!

[DarkNite]

Looking at the line, it tells me that this game will be X and Cottbus +0.5

[zizoudane10]

Basically Vaughany already answered all questions while I've been away
I have bet all games the last 2 seasons, 100€ (1 unit) each. (Missed a few games last season though).
Great thing is, average odds should be somewhere @~3.5, but often we will get prices as high as 4.33 (had them a few times last season). And the more big names in the league, the better the monday draw. We have quite a few of them this year. The bigger the name, the more games they play on mondays because that's what the guys behind the TV want to see. And often we will have matchups like f.e. Kaiserslautern against some mediocre team where the odds for the draw are high because the hometeam is the big favourite. But the mediocre teams don't go for the away win in such games. They often try to park the bus and often are successfull with it. Anything above 30% this year would be a success, if we can hit >40% again it would be really nice. There is a tendency for the monday x the last years, because so many teams are fighting against relegation and their motto is: 1 point is better then no point. The 2. Bundesliga has become a lot tougher over the last few years, there are basically (at least) 10 teams that can be too sure that they are save for the season. And the difference (moneywise) between the 2. Bundesliga and the 3. Bundesliga is HUGE.

What I also like about this "experiment" is: We just do it. We don't give a fukk about analysis or anything else here. We are just playing them. If it doesn't work out it doesn't hurt our bankroll too much, but if it does work out, it is a real nice + in the end without doing much. Last year I made ~20 units with these plays (because I missed a few). That's pretty cool when we think about the fact that we don't put any effort in this at all. It is a nice little funny thing to do every monday, to place the bet and check how it worked out after the game.

I wish all of us the best of luck for this thread!

[zizoudane10]

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Energie Cottbus, x @3.66 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

1:0 FT, -1 unit

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Energie Cottbus, under 2.5 @1.91 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

1:0 Ft, +0.91 units

[zizoudane10]

Posting the game for Monday early, just in case:

VfL Bochum - Dynamo Dresden, x@3.46 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

under 2.5 @1.91 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

[zizoudane10]

Bump as a reminder

[mentorUS]

5 dimes good price
7/29/2013 2:15 PM Germany Soccer 103 Draw (Dynamo Dresden (GER-2) vs Bochum (GER-2))* +250 3.500

[zizoudane10]

5 dimes good price
7/29/2013 2:15 PM Germany Soccer 103 Draw (Dynamo Dresden (GER-2) vs Bochum (GER-2))* +250 3.500

Pinnacle and marathonbet with @3.5 as well today. I played it earlier so I had 3.46.

[alex0]

Like the draw bochum )) 90%

[Vaughany]

I think this is type of game that has a great chance of being 1-1. Dresden aren't great away from home but did draw 7 games on their travels last season (joint highest in league) so that bodes well.

[zizoudane10]

I think this is type of game that has a great chance of being 1-1. Dresden aren't great away from home but did draw 7 games on their travels last season (joint highest in league) so that bodes well.

Bochum looks good under Neururer so far, even without Goretzka. Based on form a normal punter (not following this thread) would have to pick Bochum, but Dresden has shown us so often that they are very able to stand well defensively in away games, that I would like this play even if I wouldn't play every monday draw.

[swordsandtequila]

On it, +253 @ 5Dimes now. Good luck!

[DarkNite]

Dresden +0.5 and X.

[dk70]

5dimes has hidden the Money Lines and Draw line for the past 15 minutes. Think the draw is looking better and better now. bol

[Vaughany]

I think this is type of game that has a great chance of being 1-1. Dresden aren't great away from home but did draw 7 games on their travels last season (joint highest in league) so that bodes well.

Called it and didnt even play it

[zizoudane10]

Posting the game for Monday early, just in case:

VfL Bochum - Dynamo Dresden, x@3.46 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

under 2.5 @1.91 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

draw, +2.46 units

1:1, +0.91 units

[zizoudane10]

Record:

1 draw - 1 loss, +1.46 units

2 under - 0 loss, +1.82 units

[swordsandtequila]

Nice! Great to get our first win early. Kicking myself, was also going to play the under each week, would be 2-0. Congrats everyone!

[oldscho0led]

Shitt. first time i saw this thread yesterday! hit the under 2.5, Dresden +0.5 and draw! Soccer bettor or not, lets bump this thread! will be profitable for everyone. Thanks a lot Zoudane.

[mentorUS]

Good job !!

[zizoudane10]

Nice! Great to get our first win early. Kicking myself, was also going to play the under each week, would be 2-0. Congrats everyone!

Shitt. first time i saw this thread yesterday! hit the under 2.5, Dresden +0.5 and draw! Soccer bettor or not, lets bump this thread! will be profitable for everyone. Thanks a lot Zoudane.

Good job !!

Always good to get the first one in early.