Tokyo Brandon Japanese Baseball Wagertalk

[PKING]

304127) Hiroshima Carp at (304128) Yakult Swallows
Game: (304127) Hiroshima Carp at (304128) Yakult Swallows
Date/Time: Jun 19 2022 12:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Hiroshima Carp Total Under 3.5 (+100)



🐠🐣 The Carp are cold and Ishikawa has allowed more than 1 run in only 1 of his last 5 starts. He is backed by the best bullpen in the league.

Team Starting Pitcher Proj Score
Swallows 石川 雅規 3.96
Carp 九里 亜蓮 2.91




Released June 18, 2022 5:22 PM EDT
(304125) Orix Buffaloes at (304126) Seibu Lions
Game: (304125) Orix Buffaloes at (304126) Seibu Lions
Date/Time: Jun 19 2022 12:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Total Under 6.5 (+100)

I have this under 6.



Team Starting Pitcher Proj Score
Buffaloes 山﨑 福也 2.35
Lions 與座 海人 3.32


Released June 18, 2022 5:46 PM EDT
(304135) Chiba Lotte Marines at (304136) Nippon Ham Fighters
Game: (304135) Chiba Lotte Marines at (304136) Nippon Ham Fighters
Date/Time: Jun 19 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Nippon Ham Fighters +100

The Fighters are not a good team but they are a decent hitting team and they play well in the 1st 5. Take them to win the 1st 5 here:

1st 5 innings 1st 5 runs rank Runs 1st 5 ERA 1st 5 score
Marines 12 1.58 1.63 1.13
Fighters 3 2.29 0.67 1.96


Released June 18, 2022 5:15 PM EDT
Last Update June 18, 2022 6:47 PM EDT
(304133) Yokohama Baystars at (304134) Hanshin Tigers
Game: (304133) Yokohama Baystars at (304134) Hanshin Tigers
Date/Time: Jun 19 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Hanshin Tigers Total Over 2.5 (-110)

The Tigers are averaging more than 5 runs per game their last week of games and face an awful bullpen and a starting pitcher with a 4.50 FIP. They scored 4 on this team yesterday and I think 3 is not such a tough hurdle. I have them scoring 4.7.

L7 + H/A AVERAGE
2.97 BayStars
4.71 Tigers


Released June 18, 2022 5:26 PM EDT
Last Update June 18, 2022 6:45 PM EDT
(304133) Yokohama Baystars at (304134) Hanshin Tigers
Game: (304133) Yokohama Baystars at (304134) Hanshin Tigers
Date/Time: Jun 19 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Hanshin Tigers -105

I have Hanshin at -167 so anything better is a play on.

Team Starting Pitcher Proj Score Win% US odds
BayStars 京山 将弥 2.87 37.4% +167
Tigers 西 純矢 3.63 62.6% -167

[PKING]

This clown finally hits a 5% Play. Claims he us 72% on the Year. I have to lay -200 juice. Insane!

[kobe bean]

this clown finally hits a 5% play. Claims he us 72% on the year. I have to lay -200 juice. Insane!

was actually gonna be a moron and play the 5 but exactly i saw -200 im like these guys are fkn retarted man lol....u cant tell customers to lay -200 on a max bet its comical man..

[PKING]

304101) Yakult Swallows at (304102) Chunichi Dragons
Game: (304101) Yakult Swallows at (304102) Chunichi Dragons
Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Yakult Swallows -137

The Swallows are on a tear and they have the SP, bullpen and lineup advantage here. I have them winning this one by a large margin. Take the Swallows on the money line for anything -210 or better.

Starter SP 2022 ERA SP 2022 WHIP Proj Runs (L7) Bookie TT H/A Adv% SP Rank BP Rank Season Runs/G
小川 泰弘 2.23 1.12 3.52 3.5 11.97% 84 2 4.14
小笠原 慎之介 3.86 1.33 3.15 3.5 12.96% 170 8 3.03


Released June 20, 2022 12:55 PM EDT
(304103) Yokohama Baystars at (304104) Yomiuri Giants
Game: (304103) Yokohama Baystars at (304104) Yomiuri Giants
Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Yokohama Baystars Total Over 2.5 (-110)

I have Yokohama scoring 3.8 here they are going against an SP who rarely goes past 5 innings and the worst bullpen in the league.

L7 + H/A AVERAGE
3.88 BayStars
3.22 Giants
7.10 6.83


Released June 20, 2022 1:08 PM EDT
(304101) Yakult Swallows at (304102) Chunichi Dragons
Game: (304101) Yakult Swallows at (304102) Chunichi Dragons
Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Yakult Swallows Total Over 2.5 (-125)

In my most conservative projection I have Yakult scoring 3.6 but they are averaging over 6 runs a game the last week.



Team Starting Pitcher Proj Score
Swallows 小川 泰弘 3.65
Dragons 小笠原 慎之介 2.90


Released June 20, 2022 1:15 PM EDT
(304105) Seibu Lions at (304106) Chiba Lotte Marines
Game: (304105) Seibu Lions at (304106) Chiba Lotte Marines
Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Chiba Lotte Marines -125



2.69 Lions
3.95 Marines


Released June 20, 2022 1:20 PM EDT
(304109) Fukuoka S. Hawks at (304110) Orix Buffaloes
Game: (304109) Fukuoka S. Hawks at (304110) Orix Buffaloes
Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Fukuoka S. Hawks Total Over 2.5 (-115)

In my most conservative projection this is at 3.8.

Team Starting Pitcher Proj Score
Hawks 石川 柊太 3.83
Buffaloes 宮城 大弥 3.48


Released June 20, 2022 1:23 PM EDT

[BigFletch]

This clown finally hits a 5% Play. Claims he us 72% on the Year. I have to lay -200 juice. Insane!

And will still claim 5% profit! "Number 1 profit capper on Wagertalk!!!" its a joke. However, it was a 2.5 team total, so I took the 3 point team total that still paid better odds.

[BigFletch]

some of the KBO picks:

• (304613) Lotte Giants at (304614) KIA Tigers
  Game: (304613) Lotte Giants at (304614) KIA Tigers
  Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:30 AM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: KIA Tigers +1.5 (-130)
  
  I have KIA a small favorite here as they have the bullpen and lineup advantages.
  
  
  Released June 20, 2022 1:32 PM EDT
• (304609) Kiwoom Heroes at (304610) Samsung Lions
  Game: (304609) Kiwoom Heroes at (304610) Samsung Lions
  Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:30 AM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 1%
  Play: 1H Samsung Lions +0.5 (-105)
  
  
  ⚾�� I have Samsung the better 1st half team here so take the 1st 5 run line with them.
  
  
  
  Released June 20, 2022 1:38 PM EDT
• Game: (304609) Kiwoom Heroes at (304610) Samsung Lions
  Date/Time: Jun 21 2022 5:30 AM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 1%
  Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-110)
  
  I have this right at 4.
  
• 
  

[PKING]

304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Jun 22 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 6.0 (-105)

I have both teams under 3 here so I am playing the Under 6.

L7 + H/A AVERAGE
2.27 Fighters
2.65 Eagles
4.93 5.74


Released June 21, 2022 11:32 AM EDT
(304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Jun 22 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Rakuten Gold. Eagles Total Under 1.5 (+100)

THIS IS FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 1.5

I have this total at 1.15. Kato has not allowed a run in 4 starts (26 innings)

1st 5 innings 1st 5 runs rank Runs 1st 5 ERA 1st 5 score
Fighters 3 2.24 0.42 2.02
Eagles 9 1.88 1.80 1.15


Released June 21, 2022 11:34 AM EDT
Last Update June 21, 2022 11:39 AM EDT
(304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Jun 22 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 3.5 (-110)

I have this right at three in all of my projections. Both teams are pretty cold and one SP has not allowed a run in 26 innings. Take the Under 3.5.

1st 5 innings 1st 5 runs rank Runs 1st 5 ERA 1st 5 score 1st 5 Total Runs/Inning
Fighters 3 2.24 0.42 2.02 3.17
Eagles 9 1.88 1.80 1.15


Released June 21, 2022 11:41 AM EDT
(304117) Seibu Lions at (304118) Chiba Lotte Marines
Game: (304117) Seibu Lions at (304118) Chiba Lotte Marines
Date/Time: Jun 22 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 3.5 (-140)

This is the alt 1st 5 under 3.5 for -140. I like this better than 3 at -110. Two of the best SPs in the league here and I can not see either pushing this to 4 runs in the 1st 5.



Released June 21, 2022 12:06 PM EDT
(304121) Fukuoka S. Hawks at (304122) Orix Buffaloes
Game: (304121) Fukuoka S. Hawks at (304122) Orix Buffaloes
Date/Time: Jun 22 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Fukuoka S. Hawks -110

I have Fukuoka with the SP, bullpen and lineup advantages here to take them -152 or better.

Team Starting Pitcher Proj Score Win% US odds
Hawks 東浜 巨 3.96 60.3% -152
Buffaloes 田嶋 大樹 2.66 39.7% +152


Released June 21, 2022 12:09 PM EDT
(304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304123) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Jun 22 2022 5:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Nippon Ham Fighters +0.5 (-125)

1st 5 innings 1st 5 runs rank Runs 1st 5 ERA 1st 5 score
Fighters 3 2.24 0.42 2.02
Eagles 9 1.88 1.80 1.15

[kobe bean]

Lost his largest play of course…fkn bumbs all of them..