Tracking the Car Market - into 2025

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm all for buying a nice car and enjoying it. But only at a reasonable financing rate.

My observation is that the car dealers have accumulated a big stock-piling. Hard for them to move cars, as so many people have affordability issues.

I view a car as a good investment, ONLY if you get a good financing deal. I'm hearing that the dealer interest rate is often > 7% now.

No way! To even consider, it has to be a low interest rate. <4%.

If I think about buying a car, I want interest working FOR ME. Not Against me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another thing I tell people about cars. A car is an incredible drain on money.

Count the number of ways you pay out on a Car. I think it easily gets to 10+ line items:

1) Down payment
2) Monthly payment
3) Auto insurance
4) Oil change - Props to any guys who can do the mechanic work on their own.
5) Servicing - at every 12,000 miles (?)

6) Gas
7) Car wash
8) Licensing fee
9) Property tax
10) Speeding tickets

11) Tolls

If you live in an urban area, best served to live WITHOUT a car.

[jackpot269]

You make a lot of good points. I live in an area where the average family income is below the national average.
Yet the roads are full of 40, 50, $60,000 and above vehicles. How do they afford them.

[mjsuax13]

Another thing I tell people about cars. A car is an incredible drain on money.

Count the number of ways you pay out on a Car. I think it easily gets to 10+ line items:

1) Down payment
2) Monthly payment
3) Auto insurance
4) Oil change - Props to any guys who can do the mechanic work on their own.
5) Servicing - at every 12,000 miles (?)

6) Gas
7) Car wash
8) Licensing fee
9) Property tax
10) Speeding tickets

11) Tolls

If you live in an urban area, best served to live WITHOUT a car.

This… it’s a money pit.

[mjsuax13]

You make a lot of good points. I live in an area where the average family income is below the national average.
Yet the roads are full of 40, 50, $60,000 and above vehicles. How do they afford them.

Lease, finance, shady loans, etc… people will buy a car over investing $100 a month in anything

[jackpot269]

MSRP's up 42% since 2019. Car insurance has doubled in some parts of the country last 3 years.
I watched this video a couple of weeks ago, it is interesting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This… it’s a money pit.

Salud, mj. Appreciate the positive feedback.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

MSRP's up 42% since 2019. Car insurance has doubled in some parts of the country last 3 years.
I watched this video a couple of weeks ago, it is interesting.

Ha-ha. Jack, that's the exact video I was going to post. That guy's good.

I might stop over at my local Ford dealer. I'll see what he has. But I'll only consider it if it works FOR ME:
1) Trade-in has to be good.
2) It has to be something THEY want to move. So, I get a fair price.
3) The financing HAS TO be good. Low interest rate, where I feel like I can earn interest quicker.

I truly think we see the car mkt bubble in early 2025. Going to be hard to justify purchases.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My list doesn't even include Depreciation. You're purchasing a depreciating asset. Your re-sale value declines QUICKLY on new vehicles.

I will be interested to see how Used vehicles versus New vehicles line up in 2025. I get the feeling that VERY FEW will be able to purchase these expensive new vehicles. Could see more demand in the Used vehicle mkt.

[Optional]

You make a lot of good points. I live in an area where the average family income is below the national average.
Yet the roads are full of 40, 50, $60,000 and above vehicles. How do they afford them.

Unless you have a business where you can write off the lease payments against tax liability, buying a brand new car is probably the most indulgent and biggest boat anchor on becoming successful for the average younger wage earner.

Yet we almost all want that so badly we do it.


If you have the time and motivation you can take advantage of that though. Just chose to buy a car you can profit on. Either by smart buying at auction, or by targeting cars others are afraid to buy (exotic Euro brands with dash lights stuck on for example). And then don't mess about... sell it and make that profit and do it again.

You'd be shocked how much people pay more than they could pay for a well presented vehicle. Stuff like Alfa Romeo and Land Rover are perfect for it. The people who like them expect to pay big bucks but both brands are prone to a xmas tree of warning lights on the dash that freak out people and mechanics. Funnily enough, 80% of the time anyone can fix them on those models with a little research.

Just saying. I sold my vehicles and bought a house in 2020 that left me completely cash broke. I needed a new car and did this for a year or two as I had no other option at the time if I wanted a decent car. Ended up great timing during covid and I make over 50k profit and ended up with a nice Mercedes and a 4WD ute for "free" that I still drive now. And had some fun cars to drive along the way too.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good writeup, Opti. I'm in agreement.

A car is so expensive when you add it all up. The video (above) tracks the truck prices. Way too high.

I don't know why people like trucks so much. Unless you're using it for business to haul lumber etc, I don't see the fascination with oversized trucks that get low mileage.

My prediction for 2025 is that we'll see a change in the Auto market. Food and Heat are higher on the hierarchy of needs than an Auto. After the Auto, I predict the Housing prices bubble in mid-2025.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This… it’s a money pit.

12) I forgot about TIRES.

...I have no mechanical skills. So, I can't do this stuff on my own. I've often thought about how often the Servicing companies tack on items. "You need a new Johnson rod." And I wouldn't know the difference.

I've twice lived in urban areas. I could get to work via transit or walking. Best decision ever was to get rid of my car.

[jackpot269]

Unless you have a business where you can write off the lease payments against tax liability, buying a brand new car is probably the most indulgent and biggest boat anchor on becoming successful for the average younger wage earner.

Yet we almost all want that so badly we do it.


If you have the time and motivation you can take advantage of that though. Just chose to buy a car you can profit on. Either by smart buying at auction, or by targeting cars others are afraid to buy (exotic Euro brands with dash lights stuck on for example). And then don't mess about... sell it and make that profit and do it again.

You'd be shocked how much people pay more than they could pay for a well presented vehicle. Stuff like Alfa Romeo and Land Rover are perfect for it. The people who like them expect to pay big bucks but both brands are prone to a xmas tree of warning lights on the dash that freak out people and mechanics. Funnily enough, 80% of the time anyone can fix them on those models with a little research.

Just saying. I sold my vehicles and bought a house in 2020 that left me completely cash broke. I needed a new car and did this for a year or two as I had no other option at the time if I wanted a decent car. Ended up great timing during covid and I make over 50k profit and ended up with a nice Mercedes and a 4WD ute for "free" that I still drive now. And had some fun cars to drive along the way too.

Good info. and good writeup, thanks Opti. I did mostly the same thing with lower end cars back in the 90's and early 2000's. Put several of them on football boards. There is a few other ways, to work the cars to your advantage that I know of.

[slewfan]

Leasing is not always a bad plan.

If you lease a 35,000 dollar car for 300 dollars a month, it comes out to 10,800 dollars. You get the servicing and maintenance over the course of the lease. If you are older, it's even better because it would take you around 9 years of leases to pay off the 35,000 original cost.

Having a business to write it off is even better. Never pay 'upfront costs' on a 3 year lease. Put them into the loan and the interest is minute over the time.

I don't lease. But considering it now instead of a new car. It's just another option to consider than paying to own a car and having it depreciate 20 to 30% as soon as the rear wheels hit the black top.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Slew, I think you're on to something. Americans think so much about OWNERSHIP as it relates to Houses (and Cars).

This guy is good. Same creator as above (as post #6):

(4:00) He quotes an Average Negative Equity of $7,200 in each vehicle.
...That's insane. Financing to the moon.
...People talk about being under-water on their House. But it's the same thing on their Car.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like this thread. This creator (above) is quite smart.

I think changes will hit the Car market before the Housing market. More options on Transportation.

These auto CEOs have to think about taking less money. The profits don't merit it.

Auto financing options better get more attractive. Otherwise, auto sales are going to dry up.

[jackpot269]

Slew, I think you're on to something. Americans think so much about OWNERSHIP as it relates to Houses (and Cars).

This guy is good. Same creator as above (as post #6):

(4:00) He quotes an Average Negative Equity of $7,200 in each vehicle.
...That's insane. Financing to the moon.
...People talk about being under-water on their House. But it's the same thing on their Car.

I think it is worse on cars. Although easier to turn it around on a car, only because the investment is less. On a house 15-to-30-year mortgage. On a car 3-to-7-year loan.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think it is worse on cars. Although easier to turn it around on a car, only because the investment is less. On a house 15-to-30-year mortgage. On a car 3-to-7-year loan.

I agree, Jack. Ties out to the theme of this thread.

People view a Car as a necessity. They get into a bad financing agreement. Add up the Interest payments and see how bad your situation is on a Depreciating asset.

[Optional]

I like this thread. This creator (above) is quite smart.

I think changes will hit the Car market before the Housing market. More options on Transportation.

These auto CEOs have to think about taking less money. The profits don't merit it.

Auto financing options better get more attractive. Otherwise, auto sales are going to dry up.

I think you should be able to see strong evidence of this in places like Europe ahead of it happening in America. Very large distances and the home of the car will be last to give up I think.

[jackpot269]

I cant find a Montana, or IMV O for sale in the southeast. They may still be unavailable in the US. Have not looked for the Brat yet.

I don't know how to fix the video.

https://youtu.be/tZYTVECq0kI?si=ryjr3ai01lxAgEcD

[mjsuax13]

I like this thread. This creator (above) is quite smart.

I think changes will hit the Car market before the Housing market. More options on Transportation.

These auto CEOs have to think about taking less money. The profits don't merit it.

Auto financing options better get more attractive. Otherwise, auto sales are going to dry up.

You are spot on. I’ve been looking for something different for a few years but the costs are outrageous and I’m running it through a business. It just makes little sense so I drive my paid for Grand Cherokee.

[jackpot269]

You are spot on. I’ve been looking for something different for a few years but the costs are outrageous and I’m running it through a business. It just makes little sense so I drive my paid for Grand Cherokee.

My brother-in-law owns an electrical construction business. Just north of Atlanta and he is very successful. Three years ago, his accountant said, you need to by a truck. So, he buys a brand-new truck for his business. Last year same thing, it's time to buy another truck. So, he buys another brand-new truck in the business name. I'm sure he takes his 4 years write off (deprecation) on them and then he sales them cheap to his long-time employees or one of his kids. His accountant is great or the economy.

[Optional]

I cant find a Montana, or IMV O for sale in the southeast. They may still be unavailable in the US. Have not looked for the Brat yet.

I don't know how to fix the video.

https://youtu.be/tZYTVECq0kI?si=ryjr3ai01lxAgEcD

Clickbait. And also AI generated.


A Montana is a cheap, small, minimal safety junker made for poor countries.

No chance it will be sold for 8k in USA once they make it compliant with local safety laws. Still be cheap, but I bet you don't want one. Has an 1100cc engine btw.

[jackpot269]

Clickbait. And also AI generated.


A Montana is a cheap, small, minimal safety junker made for poor countries.

No chance it will be sold for 8k in USA once they make it compliant with local safety laws. Still be cheap, but I bet you don't want one. Has an 1100cc engine btw.

My nephew just got out of the Marines. He fukked his hand and wrist up bad. He finished his 4 years, but his last year was mainly surgery and recovery. He lost about 50% of use. I said all that to say, I'm going to help him get a truck and when I saw those 3, I just wanted to look at them If they were selling them here.

[Optional]

Oh nice idea.

A Brat for 8k would be awesome. If it ever happens it will be 30-40 though I bet.

[mjsuax13]

My brother-in-law owns an electrical construction business. Just north of Atlanta and he is very successful. Three years ago, his accountant said, you need to by a truck. So, he buys a brand-new truck for his business. Last year same thing, it's time to buy another truck. So, he buys another brand-new truck in the business name. I'm sure he takes his 4 years write off (deprecation) on them and then he sales them cheap to his long-time employees or one of his kids. His accountant is great or the economy.

Yes- I’m in Media/Advertising so we can’t buy vehicles annually or at volume like that. An electrical or construction business easily has a fleet. We have leased in the past but with the current tax code the writes offs aren’t as strong as before because the cuts are already baked in.

For me- it’s the principle of the cost of the vehicle now. It’s fuckin expensive and there is for sure some corporate greed baked in. I also spend way more time on a plane or in another city. What I do is take advantage of travel write offs so I can live, work and play annually all over the world if I want and live seasonally in places… sort of pick your poison on how you want to approach it.

[jackpot269]

Oh nice idea.

A Brat for 8k would be awesome. If it ever happens it will be 30-40 though I bet.

Those Brats are supposed to start at 26,000, but I never believe what they say until I see it for myself.

[jackpot269]

Yes- I’m in Media/Advertising so we can’t buy vehicles annually or at volume like that. An electrical or construction business easily has a fleet. We have leased in the past but with the current tax code the writes offs aren’t as strong as before because the cuts are already baked in.

For me- it’s the principle of the cost of the vehicle now. It’s fuckin expensive and there is for sure some corporate greed baked in. I also spend way more time on a plane or in another city. What I do is take advantage of travel write offs so I can live, work and play annually all over the world if I want and live seasonally in places… sort of pick your poison on how you want to approach it.

Yes sir, I completely understand. That is a great way to go. When I had my business, it worked out best for me to take mileage each year.

[jackpot269]

Audi, Tesla, and Nissan — reported weaker sales data in 2024.

The average new vehicle price for American cars hovered around $48,000, a $13,000 jump from 2020.

No 3 car brand in US suffers shock 70% drop in profits… because it takes hundreds of days to sell a single car