I have decided to quit all forms of gambling for good.

[Headsterx]

Man got shot, Pearsall, and he has more yards than CMC. 😮

[HoleWrecker]

They tried to clip him. Unreal.

[lonegambler23]

I been gambling for over 25 years and am probably down about 150k in my life. I deposuted 400 today and got penetrated. I cant take the feeling of losing anymore.

I will make this post and look at the timestamp as the day and time I finally hung it up for good. This shit is stupid, you can win sometimes but we're all gonna lose in the long run. Time money and life wasted. Even if you are lucky enough to somehow come out slightly ahead, it wont be enough to justify the investment of time.

Basically, we would be much better off doing other things.

Im done for good guys. Quitting.

who we got tonight brother?

[lonegambler23]

Im down 150k Ive had swings of 30k in one day and people expect me to deposit 400 dollars and bet 4 bucks a game? Is there a hunan being alive that could do such a thing?

By the way I am also quitting cigarettes, alcohol, and carbohydrates. Thanks for the support guys.

lol dude be realistic. just play the lottery instead.

[HoleWrecker]

Im not betting tonight but I like the Jets.

[JohnGalt2341]

I been gambling for over 25 years and am probably down about 150k in my life. I deposuted 400 today and got penetrated. I cant take the feeling of losing anymore.

I will make this post and look at the timestamp as the day and time I finally hung it up for good. This shit is stupid, you can win sometimes but we're all gonna lose in the long run. Time money and life wasted. Even if you are lucky enough to somehow come out slightly ahead, it wont be enough to justify the investment of time.

Basically, we would be much better off doing other things.

Im done for good guys. Quitting.

In my prime, Shaq would clobber me in a rebounding contest. Even at his age now. But in Shaq's prime, I could beat him in a free throw shooting contest. Even at my age now. For some reason, people always want to challenge Shaq to rebounds, even when money is on the line. I choose to challenge him in free throws instead.

[HoleWrecker]

Andy Reid just continues to slamrape Kyle Shanahan.

No lube, not even a courtesy spit.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I been gambling for over 25 years and am probably down about 150k in my life. I deposuted 400 today and got penetrated. I cant take the feeling of losing anymore.

I will make this post and look at the timestamp as the day and time I finally hung it up for good. This shit is stupid, you can win sometimes but we're all gonna lose in the long run. Time money and life wasted. Even if you are lucky enough to somehow come out slightly ahead, it wont be enough to justify the investment of time.

Basically, we would be much better off doing other things.

Im done for good guys. Quitting.

Hole, respect your decision. You may be the sane one.

Don't agree about everyone losing. As to idea of doing something better with one's time? Oh yeah, you're right about that one.

[mjsuax13]

This thread 0-2. Who do you like tomorrow?

[gauchojake]

I need to check thread before tomorrow

[blankoblanco]

Actually, hitting 58% daily over the course of 2 years with a $1000 bankroll will make you a millionaire

MIGHT MAKE A THREAD FOR SHITS N GIGGLES

no, 6% of bankroll

So am I understanding this right, Rudy? What you're saying is betting a total of 6% of your bankroll each day every day for 2 years at 58% turns $1k into 1 million+ on average, right? I'll trust the math unless someone proves it's wrong, I'm too lazy to check

It's an interesting concept, but I'm not sure anybody is that sharp at that many sports to have that win rate long-term and consistently. It's hard enough to go 58% when you're choosing your spots carefully; doing it every single day in a wide variety of sports is something else

[TommieGunshot]

Actually, hitting 58% daily over the course of 2 years with a $1000 bankroll will make you a millionaire

MIGHT MAKE A THREAD FOR SHITS N GIGGLES

This is a bunch of bullshit

Unless you are betting what 1000 games a day?

A bet with a 58% chance of winning and a 1.91 payout has an expected growth of 0.64%. Would take about 7000 bets to go from $1,000 to $1,000,000. Or about 9.6 bets per day. But growth would be a little lower making wagers on concurrent events, obscuring the exact numbers.

Another option would be to get a job in the workforce for a few months, save $10,000, then turn that into $1,000,000 in two years making only one bet per day that has a 58% chance to win.

[HoleWrecker]

A bet with a 58% chance of winning and a 1.91 payout has an expected growth of 0.64%. Would take about 7000 bets to go from $1,000 to $1,000,000. Or about 9.6 bets per day. But growth would be a little lower making wagers on concurrent events, obscuring the exact numbers.

Another option would be to get a job in the workforce for a few months, save $10,000, then turn that into $1,000,000 in two years making only one bet per day that has a 58% chance to win.

So as your bankroll increases, you continously wager 1% of your roll right?

The other thing is, who hits 58% long term?

[Headsterx]

Two MNF games… what are your picks?

[HoleWrecker]

Chargers and Bucs

[TommieGunshot]

So as your bankroll increases, you continously wager 1% of your roll right?

in theory, optimal bet size is based on the probability the bet wins, the payout if it does win, and how much money we have. In reality, it’s usually based on how much the sportsbook will let us bet.

The other thing is, who hits 58% long term?

You tell be the probability the bet has to win and the potential payout and I will tell you the expected profit and expected growth based on optimal bet size.

[HoleWrecker]

Ok lets say I have a bankroll of 1500. And I try live parlays on massive favorites.

For example I take some soccer game live under 4.5 at -2200 parlayed with some live international basketball Money Line that is -1600.

And I risk 300 to win 50 or something like that

Is there any possible way this could be a slow bankroll building option, or am I delusional

I mean, the bet has a high probability of hitting right?

[Headsterx]

That’s called Seaweed’s Game Theory.
🤣🤣🤣

[JohnGalt2341]

Ok lets say I have a bankroll of 1500. And I try live parlays on massive favorites.

For example I take some soccer game live under 4.5 at -2200 parlayed with some live international basketball Money Line that is -1600.

And I risk 300 to win 50 or something like that

Is there any possible way this could be a slow bankroll building option, or am I delusional

I mean, the bet has a high probability of hitting right?

The problem most bettors have is, they over estimate their probability by A LOT. AND, what's worse is, they don't know what the price means(what's the break even on -1600 and -2200?).

So, for a parlay of -1600 and -2200, you are going to have to hit these at least 90% of the time, just to break even.

Personally, I think there is better value in Dogs(not always, but often). You may lose several in a row, but IMO, it's still a better value than betting big faves. The bottom line is, your ACTUAL probability has to be greater than your break even price. That's all it comes down to. It's not about picking winners, it's about understanding probability and price.

[HoleWrecker]

I just dont see how one can say they accurately know the probability of something hitting. If they do they are either lying or delusional.

Theres no real way to know.

We can estimate, sure.

[TommieGunshot]

Ok lets say I have a bankroll of 1500. And I try live parlays on massive favorites.

For example I take some soccer game live under 4.5 at -2200 parlayed with some live international basketball Money Line that is -1600.

And I risk 300 to win 50 or something like that

Is there any possible way this could be a slow bankroll building option, or am I delusional

I mean, the bet has a high probability of hitting right?

if you can bet at a sportsbook that will let you parlay a -2200 favorite with a -1600 favorite and only have to lay 6-to-1, there could be some good bets for you. From what I've seen, those type of boosts are usually pretty small limits and usually much more value on big underdogs rather than big favorites.

[HoleWrecker]

This is so absurd. If we really knew for sure we would all be rich.

Nobody knows shit. We just pretend to.

[mjsuax13]

This guy is on the chargers? Fuk me

[HoleWrecker]

This guy is on the chargers? Fuk me

[HoleWrecker]

if you can bet at a sportsbook that will let you parlay a -2200 favorite with a -1600 favorite and only have to lay 6-to-1, there could be some good bets for you. From what I've seen, those type of boosts are usually pretty small limits and usually much more value on big underdogs rather than big favorites.

It would not pay 50 it would pay 33.24

I dont know what you mean by finding a book that would pay different odds LOL

All sportsbooks pay based off the odds, by definition the odds

[TommieGunshot]

It would not pay 50 it would pay 33.24

I dont know what you mean by finding a book that would pay different odds LOL

All sportsbooks pay based off the odds, by definition the odds

since you know what the odds are and how much money you have, the only other piece you need to determine optimal bet size is the probability the bet wins. Since you are now saying you cannot come up with that, the correct bet size is zero.

[JohnGalt2341]

It would not pay 50 it would pay 33.24

I dont know what you mean by finding a book that would pay different odds LOL

All sportsbooks pay based off the odds, by definition the odds

Let's say you wagered $300 to win $33.24 ten times. If you win 9 of them, that's $299.16(9x$33.24). That means you will lose 1 of them. So that's $299.16-$300=-.84 cents. So, even at 90%, you are still losing money. I don't recommend trying to beat the Books this way.

[HoleWrecker]

since you know what the odds are and how much money you have, the only other piece you need to determine optimal bet size is the probability the bet wins. Since you are now saying you cannot come up with that, the correct bet size is zero.

What I am saying is nobody can possibly come up with it. Any such declaration that anyone ever makes is a bunch of BS.

Theres no possible way to know the exact odds something will hit. There never is, never was, and never will be.

[TommieGunshot]

What I am saying is nobody can possibly come up with it. Any such declaration that anyone ever makes is a bunch of BS.

Theres no possible way to know the exact odds something will hit. There never is, never was, and never will be.

When there is certainty about probabilities of an event, it generally becomes impossible to earn money betting on it. The sportsbooks could take the probability, add vig, and no one could win. Like the casinos do with bets at the roulette table. It's because there is uncertainty, we can earn money betting on sports. Any such declaration doesn't have to be correct, it only has to be better than what the sportsbook is offering.

[mjsuax13]

Chargers and Bucs

What was your old username? Thomorino?

[mjsuax13]

Chargers and Bucs

WOW. 0-4 in here. OP really should quit!

[HoleWrecker]

Ive been ice cold on NFL this year, its incredible. I told you.

I wouldnt be able to hit water if I fell out of a boat.

Its been the craziest year I can remember.

[Headsterx]

WOW. 0-4 in here. OP really should quit!

Hell no! Big weekend coming up! If he keeps this up, this might bring back Thomorino and Seaweed. 😂

[mjsuax13]

Ive been ice cold on NFL this year, its incredible. I told you.

I wouldnt be able to hit water if I fell out of a boat.

It’s been the craziest year I can remember.

Just lay out all your picks in this thread for the rest of the NFL. Let’s roll!

[JohnGalt2341]

Ive been ice cold on NFL this year, its incredible. I told you.

I wouldnt be able to hit water if I fell out of a boat.

Its been the craziest year I can remember.

Have you ever considered...