democratic race - what am i missing?

[gojetsgomoxies]

i've been looking at the democratic race and polls..

biden leads in most polls. but warren has had a pretty big surge in popularity (perhaps among people who would never have voted for biden anyways)

warren is now 50% chance to win democratic nomination, up from 3% probably 6 to 8 months ago.. what has actually happened to warrant that?

i will add that kamala harris went from 10% to 30% based on feistiness with biden and is now back to 5%.

here is the gist of my comments,

if you combined the progressives (warren and sanders for sure. not sure who else to add) votes, they would beat biden. but that is not how the primaries work and one of them will have to drop out to get that benefit (and then i think only in states yet to be contested)..

here is the latest polling data from the biggest states,

florida B+17
texas B+16
new york B+5
ohio B+17 (oldish data)
penn B+7
cal B+9 (or B+6)
wisconsin B+8 (old data)
michigan B+19
new jersey B+6
Georgia B+24
north carolina B+21

early dem states,

new hampshire B+13
South carolina B+33
iowa W+2

some liberal states,

oregon sanders +1
massacheusits B+2 (YES)
minnesota warren+1

and of course, all the republican dominated states still count for the dem nomination and biden is very strong there.

how can biden not be a HUGE favorite? only way i think is if someone they can combine sanders/warren votes at some point... but i assume they can't consolidate the votes on states that have already been decided... or can they?

thx in advance

[gojetsgomoxies]

I WAS WRONG IN AN ASSUMPTION

dems = proportionate delegate system. so sanders/warren support can consolidate later if one of them (i.e. SANDERS) drops out of race... subject to 15% minimum though. and that's pretty significant hurdle.

[Slurry Pumper]

Biden won't last until Chistmas that is when Hillary will parachute back in and steal it from Chief dances like spaz.

[thechaoz]

i've been looking at the democratic race and polls..

biden leads in most polls. but warren has had a pretty big surge in popularity (perhaps among people who would never have voted for biden anyways)

warren is now 50% chance to win democratic nomination, up from 3% probably 6 to 8 months ago.. what has actually happened to warrant that?

i will add that kamala harris went from 10% to 30% based on feistiness with biden and is now back to 5%.

here is the gist of my comments,

if you combined the progressives (warren and sanders for sure. not sure who else to add) votes, they would beat biden. but that is not how the primaries work and one of them will have to drop out to get that benefit (and then i think only in states yet to be contested)..

here is the latest polling data from the biggest states,

florida B+17
texas B+16
new york B+5
ohio B+17 (oldish data)
penn B+7
cal B+9 (or B+6)
wisconsin B+8 (old data)
michigan B+19
new jersey B+6
Georgia B+24
north carolina B+21

early dem states,

new hampshire B+13
South carolina B+33
iowa W+2

some liberal states,

oregon sanders +1
massacheusits B+2 (YES)
minnesota warren+1

and of course, all the republican dominated states still count for the dem nomination and biden is very strong there.

how can biden not be a HUGE favorite? only way i think is if someone they can combine sanders/warren votes at some point... but i assume they can't consolidate the votes on states that have already been decided... or can they?

thx in advance

Biden is old and tired and doesn't inspire voters, like Hillary (even though she won by 3.8 million , lol democracy)

Warren and Bernie have passion, fire, progressive ideas and aren't part of the old guard in WA. I've said for months I think Warren will be the nominee.

[dannydiceman]

Sleepy uncle joe is gonna get eaten alive by trump

[gojetsgomoxies]

Sleepy uncle joe is gonna get eaten alive by trump

that won't happen.

i see that you can get the same price on kamala harris as hillary.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think you guys are nuts (respectfully)..... biden has huge support in every state for this democratic race......

warren is getting so much coverage now. and shooting up the polls. but the last massachuesits poll i saw had biden leading. biden leading warren in her home state, think about that

and what about all the republican states? do people think warren will play well in georgia, north carolina, texas not to mention about 20-25 other republican states. i don't think warren will play well in kentucky, oklahoma, west virginia etc. but joe biden will, and so may bernie sanders.

[gojetsgomoxies]

the last 5 polls RCP lists (some national, some state) have biden up by 11, 11, 10, 21, 11 points on 2nd place. but somehow warren has got to 50% betting odds to win.

makes no sense.

i do appreciate the responses.

[KVB]

...(even though she won by 3.8 million , lol democracy)...

lol, I believe it was something like Trump winning more than 2600 counties while Hillary was closer to 500.

lol.

The election was a landslide for Trump.

[TheGoldenGoose]

The facts:

H. Clinton won the Popular vote over D. Trump by 2,868,686 votes.

D. Trump won the Electoral vote over H. Clinton by 304 to 227 votes.

Trump became the oldest President elected first term to the White House.

[slambam]

Biden won't last until Chistmas that is when Hillary will parachute back in and steal it from Chief dances like spaz.

Does anybody really think the dems are dumb enough to let Hillary run against Trump again? Imo, a big part of the reason Trump won is because a ton of people hate Hillary. I just can't imagine it happening.

[Auto Donk]

nothing to miss, just the sorriest slate of candidates ever known to mankind.... that pocahauntus is going to be the candidate shows you what a lack of any viable candidate there is on behalf of the dems.... f'n george clooney should have ran, he'd win it going away against this field....

we'd rather have a good lookin' dude with a good voice who can "act" like he's president than a lying sack of shit who only got her start (at harvard) by couching herself as a goddam "native american" to get the job.... that sorry bitch doesn't lie about that and get that harvard faculty pedigree, we'd never have had to hear about this stupid socialist bitch....

[Slurry Pumper]

A shit load of people hate the Trumpster as well. As soon as people see Biden is as crooked as they come in the next few months
during the impeachment clown show. There will be a giant hole that Clinton won't be able to stay away from. Maybe it is wishful
thinking on my part, but I really believe that it will be a rematch this time around.

[Auto Donk]

joe should do do what his dad should have done the night he was spawned.... PULL OUT..........


This corrupt lying sack of shit has no chance.... and we haven't even gotten into his brother receiving over a billion dollars from our gov't to ""build houses" in iraq, despite not having an ounce of construction experience.... and then there's china.... it never ends with corrupt old kahksucker....

never discussed his son's business in ukraine, yet here he is golfing with his son and the ukranians the son "worked" for:

[slambam]

nothing to miss, just the sorriest slate of candidates ever known to mankind.... that pocahauntus is going to be the candidate shows you what a lack of any viable candidate there is on behalf of the dems.... f'n george clooney should have ran, he'd win it going away against this field....

we'd rather have a good lookin' dude with a good voice who can "act" like he's president than a lying sack of shit who only got her start (at harvard) by couching herself as a goddam "native american" to get the job.... that sorry bitch doesn't lie about that and get that harvard faculty pedigree, we'd never have had to hear about this stupid socialist bitch....

Lol yea, because Trump is a saint. Pot meet kettle.