*PLZ: no political rants in here. It's ONLY about the bets.
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Where's the fuckin power box, Carol? -
Shaping up as a wide-open race. Current odds that I see (Euro odds):
KHarris 4.9
EWarren 4.3
Biden 4.0
Buttigieg 12.5
Sanders 9.2
Gabbard 29Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Is anyone looking beyond the top3? Does Gabbard have any real chance?Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I don't regard Biden as a strong Fav. Seems too old, to me.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
It all has to do wit the money, and as long as Biden has the money, he can buy the nomination.Comment -
i think it'll be biden.
dems need some major candidates to drop out long before the convention if they want to beat biden.
seems like dem nominee odds move on air......... huge harris surge and biden plunge after 1st debate. completely reversed (and more) after 2nd debate. neither debate was that eventful. non-progressives (i.e. most people and many many democratic voters) don't care about the stuff biden is getting tarred with (bussing. some op-ed from many many years ago)....
i will note that traditional betting markets and predictit.com have MASSIVE DIFFERENCES at times. predictit.com seems to be considered the gold standard but betting limits are pretty severe. and then i'm not sure how much volume there is at all at traditional sites.....
probably the biggest decision for a better is kamala or elizabeth warren. i think one of those 2 will be biden's main eventual rival. not sure if harris actually believes in all this progressive policy she spouts.
tulsi and booker are surging. don't think either will get remotely close to nomination....... surprised castro hasn't surged more.
i like klobucher as a dark-horse......... woman, mid-west. doesn't seem like crazy progressive, like many of the key contendersComment -
Good post, Jets. Remember, I'm just talking betting value.
Maybe Biden IS value at +300 or so. I just can't envision him winning Nom + then defeating the Republicans.
If we think about Obama as the most recent DEM to win...Biden seems like a million miles away from that.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I will say one thing for BObama. He was one hell of an orator.
You have to go back a good bit in history to find a guy who can sway crowds like he did.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
my comments are 100% related to betting value........ it's impossible to discuss betting value without discussing how the candidates perform and how they may perform in the future.
how is biden miles away from obama? biden is up 10 points on trump. leading trump in TEXAS. 8 points better than harris/warren and any other candidate other than sanders, who is maybe 6 points up on trump.
it's basically biden vs. who can be the most progressive...........
harris is tough to judge........... seems to have superstar potential but not sure as to how much she believes in heavy duty progressive policies........... biden/warren/sanders i think you know what you'll get. it's just a matter of if people want it. (and of course, republican senate may block tons of initiatives but that's way down the road)
anyone outside the big 4 who you can't get at 100-1 or more is just burning money in my opinion. even buttigieg.Comment -
the betting movement so far has been pretty predictable i think. not sure that will be the case going forward.
i'd probably do a medium term (a few months) SELL biden and maybe warren to BUY harris and sanders..... a bit torn on whether tulsi and booker will go higher (at some point they will be great shorts but not yet)... i personally like klobuchar but that will take awhile to work.Comment -
Its gonna be HarrisComment -
It's gonna be Biden..Comment -
Dam warren was 30-1 about 3-4 months ago..now 3-1..that was the best value on the board.Even my wife who is a warren supporter told me Im a dumbass for not grabbing that price.Comment -
Are there republican candidates other than Trump?
If there are, I don't know if they can compete with the democrat party being a tragic cross between a train wreck and a freakshow.Comment -
If Michelle runs, she's the nominee. Won't matter how late she shows up to the party.Comment -
Do you guys know ANYTHING about politics? After the 2016 fiasco, do you think the Democrats with the MONEY (and that is what counts, no matter what you fools may think) are going to allow another dumb broad to win the nomination? The blacks are too busy cutting each others throats to win. Harris is running for VP, hoping that when she runs with either Biden or Sanders, and that the winner between those two old farts dies in office. That is the ONLY way she ever becomes president.Comment -
I put 5 bucks on Warren at 25 to 1. That was before morinos thread. He got her at 30.
I put 5 on Harris at 8 to1.
I think the dems will have to go female.Comment -
Guys, I know Beto is polling shitty, but he is getting a HUGE PR bump from the shootings in El paso...Hes 50-1 for the nom and 85-1 to win the presidency...Might be a good time to grab this priceComment -
Good post, beef. If Beto hits...I'll send u 500pts. Free-roll, if u will.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Nice!Comment
