Sports Wagering Folklore and Myths Busted to shreds

[sportsfan9698]

I have no idea if anybody has created a thread like this before here at SBR... so I will start. It pains me to hear all of the misconceptions being thrown around here like facts. I will no doubt draw plenty of criticism for the things I will put in this thread, but that is not my purpose. Please add your own if you would like. Here goes...

Line Movement - does not tell you damn thing. It tells you that the books are making an adjustment to the odds because either they have unbalanced action, or they want you to think they have unbalanced action. You don't know, and it does not matter. Many players have gone broke trying to cap the line movement. STOP IT

[sportsfan9698]

Value + or +EVEN - Nonsense. You cap a game and you take in a very small fraction of the available information and you think you found the value. No you did not. You have a biased view because you don't know all of the information. Stop thinking you are smarter than the odds, you are not.

[sportsfan9698]

Writeups for a wager - Nonsense. You lay out all of the reasons your pick is so great. For any "writeup" another person can also do a writeups using differing PROPAGANDA and shred yours. Writeups have zero value. Just an attempt to satisfy your own ego or confidence before the game begins.

[sportsfan9698]

Opening Lines are weak - BS This is pure folklore to make you think you have an advantage. The opening lines are just as sharp as the closing lines. 95% of the time it does not make any difference. You wager early thinking you gained an advantage and miss all of the news of a player being out, or the team got in late, or somebody has the flu but is going to tough it out. Stop this early wagering it is not effective

[sportsfan9698]

Sharp money vs Public money - This is a big one and it is again pure folklore to make you think you know something. Truth is that some people are better at wagering than most... but they also lose more than you think. The important part here is that the books try to balance the action so there is equal amounts of "sharps" on both sides. So if somebody tells you the sharps are all over XXXX, they are lying to you or they don't know what the hell they are talking about.

[sportsfan9698]

Consensus % numbers Useless usually. If you keep records, you will find that 80% plays hit about 50% of the time, as do 20% plays. I don't care what source you are using, it is useless (as a stand alone variable). Now you can use these numbers in combination to glean some good information... but usually this will simply lead you to go broke.

[sportsfan9698]

Fading a team because XXX is out. Dumb. Usually the play is to wager that team. The public and the odds overreact, and the teams expectations are reversed. This one takes some thought, but it is true. If Mr Brady is out, the only play you really should consider is the Pats at a very strongly adjusted line.

[sportsfan9698]

Jets are DUE for a win - probably the dumbest strategy, and any chase system goes right along with it. Study statistics and you will understand that each and every game is a separate occurrence, and yes you can flip a coin and get heads 20 times in a row.

[sportsfan9698]

I just realized I used a mixed metaphor in the title... busted to shreds? lol