Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I thought we agreed about the Twins.

Fukk them.

Right?????

In the mud you go.

My bad… I totally forgot

In my defense though, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

[wolfmanmeadows]

When you compare two teams, are you already putting it in a percentage (it makes sense) or are you creating a score for the forecast? Raw scores can be converted to moneylines with this formula.


This is the topic of my next video, a calculator. Prepared the video when I posted that thread with Detroit but never actually recorded.

Need to do that today.


<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/AlertChillyAnchovy' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='404'></iframe>

Predicting 1 output variable per game like score differential or combined score or win probability, don't have a model that predicts away and home scores independently yet. Maybe I should build a model to predict away score and home score, might be more predictable than score differentials.

[KVB]

Predicting 1 output variable per game like score differential or combined score or win probability, don't have a model that predicts away and home scores independently yet. Maybe I should build a model to predict away score and home score, might be more predictable than score differentials.

If you do all three...score differential, Total score, and win probability, how do you compare to the formula? If you can make a score differential, and a Total prediction, you can make a score prediction. If you have a 1 run game and a Total of 8, you have 4.5 to 3.5.

I'm not really suggesting you do that, the output of win probability is probably more useful. Definitely be comparing that to sharp books to see the "true" no vig line in the market.

But honestly this formula and it's use is a bit less sophisticated. It can be used by anyone estimating runs. That said it can also be used by saber guys when they are estimating. There are many run estimator formulas as well.

Now that we've had this little chat, lol, I'll probably throw one of those formulas in my video as well.

Thanks, you just made me glad I put off recording. For real. I think a base run estimator is needed to at least give a little more value to the video.

Just thought it was out of the scope, but clearly it's not.

Thanks.

Going to listen to this song at different speeds...

[stevenash]

Royals??

I think I'm the only KC Royals fan in New England.

Same old shit, different smell.
What good is a team stacked with hitting and speed when they can't pitch a lick.
It's the bullpen era now, and KC neglected to address the bullpen depth entering the season.

And when the stacked lineup fails to hit, and the bullpen is bottom five in OBA (allowing baserunners to reach base) and bottom ten in homeruns allowed, is it any wonder why KC is day in, day out, one of biggest bankroll killers in the game.

2022 is on a record pace for bullpen innings pitched.

10040 IP total.
5670 IP by starters
4370 IP by starters

56%/44% SP to RP ratio

KC's SP to RP ratio is higher.
173 IP starters/150 IP relievers
54%/46% ratio.

For all intents and purposes half the pitching game is now bullpen, unheard of before 2020, if you're not handicapping the back end, you're not going to win betting baseball.

Trust me, I had to overhaul my handicapping approach totally.
For the past 25 years it was handicap the SP first, then everything else.

And if you're betting first five innings with teams starting aces, books have the drop on you as they juice those first five innings.

The only time I consider a first five inning bet with KC is with Greinke or Keller, and unless I can get +180 on a game line I think KC should be +160, I wouldn't consider betting them.

My site I have a more detailed breakdown on relief pitching 40 games in, who has it, who doesn't, the whole nine yards.

Regarding the Twins, they'll crash and burn come mid August.
Long story short, they're over using their relievers.
It's almost a 50/50 split there, those relievers can't handle that workload long term.

New baseball era, same story.
Pitching wins, always has, always will.

Now it's not just starting pitching wins, it's overall staff pitching.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Now that Nasher is back it’s time to paaaaartay!


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[KVB]

Jeeeezues.

I can't believe I watched the hole GIF.

If I wasn't so repulsed I might have gotten a wierd boner when she finger fukked her belly button.

Might have.

Also...

Reported

[KVB]

Nasher pitching appears to be getting the edge so far this season with UNDERs being extremely profitable early on.

Good to see you around Nasher.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Jeeeezues.

I can't believe I watched the hole GIF.

If I wasn't so repulsed I might have gotten a wierd boner when she finger fukked her belly button.

Might have.

Also...

Reported

It was hypnotizing wasn’t it?


Check this out:

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[Bostongambler]

Some drunk guy thought her ass was the Hollywood walk of fame.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

#MeToo movement at it again.

They got our boy Keanu. Fuk

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Some drunk guy thought her ass was the Hollywood walk of fame.

[stevenash]

Good to see you around Nasher.

Thanks.

Had to step away from all the bullshit drama for awhile which I didn't create.
I do blame myself for getting caught up in it though.

I almost walked away for good, but I've got too much time invested here.

Good timing anyway for taking a break, WordPress just released their latest version of their beta editor that I wanted and needed to learn.
It's user friendly enough, just a ton of options and such.

I'll be around, just not as much as in the past.

[BeatTheJerk]

Thanks.

Had to step away from all the bullshit drama for awhile which I didn't create.
I do blame myself for getting caught up in it though.

I almost walked away for good, but I've got too much time invested here.

Good timing anyway for taking a break, WordPress just released their latest version of their beta editor that I wanted and needed to learn.
It's user friendly enough, just a ton of options and such.

I'll be around, just not as much as in the past.

It’s not the same around here without our leader, sad times for the homies.

[DwightShrute]

PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[37] TOTAL o5½+104
(N.Y. RANGERS vrs CAROLINA)
[37] N.Y. RANGERS +146
[39] TOTAL o6½EV
(EDMONTON vrs CALGARY)
[40] CALGARY -166

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/shear?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"> #shear</a> stupidity is what made me chuckle �� <a href="https://t.co/u3lkueejZo">pic.twitter.com/u3lkueejZo</a></p>&mdash; Crazy funny Stuff (@crazyfunnystuff) <a href="https://twitter.com/crazyfunnystuff/status/1527667007495225349?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

925

20-May

TEX +153

BAS line but they kind of suck these days.

[stevenash]

It’s not the same around here without our leader, sad times for the homies.

Time to send out Hank Voight and his Intelligence Team.

Monkey pox, huh?
There's a ton of potential humor there.

[MaltedHopsFrenzy]

Now that Nasher is back it’s time to paaaaartay!


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[Bostongambler]

🤢 🤢 🤢

[KVB]

No fukkin way.

No way a man would do that to his own belly button.

Well, maybe CashFlow.

But no other man.

[KVB]

CaaaaaashFlooooooooooow!!

Come out to plaaaayaaaay!!

[KVB]

CashFlow is radio silent.

But I know he's around.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

KVB knows something

[KVB]

KVB knows something

Correct.

But what I don't know is if he ever replaced is broken phone, changed a number, or what.

For awhile he wasn't getting texts, don't know that status there to be honest.

I didn't press much because he's around, but if he doesn't come out to play I'll escalate. I may have something he wants.

I don't think anyone needs to be worried though.

[stevenash]

KVB knows something

But does he know Bo?

[KVB]

I don't know Bo but I know CashFlow

And CashFlow now knows that I know what he knows.

Perhaps these will entice him...

[Bostongambler]

She/he / they must of had a lot of dairy when she/he/they were young.

[KVB]

Perhaps a pair of these could draw out CashFlow...

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Wait… you guys are trying to lure Fidels in here?

Lemme help you out…

[KVB]

[KVB]

Great idea.

Caaaaashfloooooooohhhhh

Come out to plaaaaayaaaaay!!

[stevenash]

Just heard a report that an auto self driving Tesla crashed causing a major accident?

Drunk driver?

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">First <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#M LB</a> player you think of when you see this swing. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CompareTheSwing?src=hash&amp;ref_src=tws rc%5Etfw">#CompareTheSwing</a> <a href="https://t.co/tTzCOrNwiQ">pic.twitter.com/tTzCOrNwiQ</a></p>&mdash; Eduardo Perez (@PerezEd) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerezEd/status/1527423476499369985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[DiggityDaggityDo]

That dog could start for the Reds

I bet

[Bostongambler]

It’s Tony Gwynn’s dog.