Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 11:47 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

957	26-Jul	DET +172
959		KC +201
961		BAL +169

Let's get a jump in the market.

**turtledoves** · 07-26-20, 11:49 AM

I was watching these videos yesterday morning out of the blue. Was thinking to myself "i want to be a millionaire" before baseball betting. then I had a bong session to the theme song and thought "this is great music to get stoned to". even looked up a regis gif.

weird coincidence to be looking up this stuff and then a few hours later Regis dies. I guess if everyone across the country is looking up random stuff, one of them has to look up Millionaire stuff right before Regis dies.

MIL
NYY
SEA

**turtledoves** · 07-26-20, 11:52 AM

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

...weird coincidence to be looking up this stuff and then a few hours later Regis dies. I guess if everyone across the country is looking up random stuff, one of them has to look up Millionaire stuff right before Regis dies...

Maybe you're right. Give an infinite number of monkeys typewriters, blah blah blah.

Still, if it happens to you, like it did, then it's a bit chilling to say the least.

Contrarian RL Fund had a bunch of plays yesterday and it's on Seattle today. I wasn't going to track that one and concentrate on aggressive trade when markets shift. It was down more than -10 units last year.

I should have brought it back this year, but I do want to try some market tracking aggressive stuff instead.

Right now though, I'm pretty unorganized over here...lol.

**turtledoves** · 07-26-20, 12:28 PM

banging head on door gifs

caused me 500 days and counting of persistent symptoms

going distributed computing. orchestrator app receives commands to download and parse data. The command is written to a database and assigned to any available worker node. Worker apps poll Orchestrator app via HTTP to receive instructions of what to download. Worker apps have rotating VPN connection every 1-2 minutes, but orchestrator app is not behind a VPN so there is a static IP address that is known by the worker apps. Worker nodes restart the ubuntu virtual machine via superuser terminal command every 45 minutes to handle failures and crashes. A failed VPN connection also causes machine to restart. Once the VM boots up again, it launches the worker app on startup and the worker app starts to poll the orchestrator again. Once the worker app has downloaded all the files to the shared file location, the worker app writes "DOWNLOAD_COMPLETE" status which then causes the orchestrator to retrieve the files from the FTP server and load it into DB. This will allow me to run 4 worker apps that are constantly downloading data, stats, odds, etc. Because the worker apps are simplistic and all the complexity/DB is on the orchestrator node, I can buy $2.50/month VMs for the worker apps.

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

banging head on door gifs

caused me 500 days and counting of persistent symptoms

going distributed computing. orchestrator app receives commands to download and parse data. The command is written to a database and assigned to any available worker node. Worker apps poll Orchestrator app via HTTP to receive instructions of what to download. Worker apps have rotating VPN connection every 1-2 minutes, but orchestrator app is not behind a VPN so there is a static IP address that is known by the worker apps. Worker nodes restart the ubuntu virtual machine via superuser terminal command every 45 minutes to handle failures and crashes. A failed VPN connection also causes machine to restart. Once the VM boots up again, it launches the worker app on startup and the worker app starts to poll the orchestrator again. Once the worker app has downloaded all the files to the shared file location, the worker app writes "DOWNLOAD_COMPLETE" status which then causes the orchestrator to retrieve the files from the FTP server and load it into DB. This will allow me to run 4 worker apps that are constantly downloading data, stats, odds, etc. Because the worker apps are simplistic and all the complexity/DB is on the orchestrator node, I can buy $2.50/month VMs for the worker apps.

1) I have been desperate for GIFS or music as I quickly post the plays. Just trying to keep it going while figure out what to write.

2) Really? Hit a door? Jam the neck or something. Fawk.

3) looks like all you really need is to make sense and organize that data.

I was going to talk a bout another guage this year, it's more for spread bets like basketball or football.

Think about this. I always mention the value of 50-50 and just getting there is a good thing. What if we have some metrics that hover about 50-50, or at some level. You might remember me talking about the "sharp" football forecast predicting an upset 33% of time and in any rolling average it remains about 33%.

I posted a stat in another thread about MLB games going to extra innings 8.6 or 8.7 percent of the time. That is very, very consistent. That's an example.

Point is that if some things stray to far from 50-50, we can "buy in" when for the regression. Predicitng such regression has value, but as usual only when combined with other capping.

I have what I consider a nuts and bolts basic function of the spread markets. A true just better than half metric that, when combined with other factors, like region, reveal a lot about what they bring and how it's brought.

Numbers matter here, margins are very tight and the best bets push.

Remember that PUSH I had in the Aggressive NBA Fund?

A pretty big unit difference considering it's placement...

Record	Date	NBA Contrarian Aggressive Trading	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

1-0	7-Mar	SAC +3 (-110) x15	13.64	2	Y	1
1-0-1	8-Mar	SAC +5 (-105) x14	0	5	PUSH	0
2-0-1	10-Mar	SA +3.5 (-110) x13	11.82	4	N	-0.5
3-0-1	11-Mar	NY +5 (-105) x12	11.43	5.5	N	-0.5

3-0-1		Total	36.89		1-2-1	0.000

Fukk I miss those days. We really had the turn pegged before the Kung Flu hit.

Anyway going to get into this some more but there could be some math we can apply to a histogram or something to judge the type of market we are in, maybe dealing with slopes.

Maybe lagging indicators are enough, but I think we can do better.

Someone tell me, is this real?

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by Ian

Won a little last night. Two small bets for tonight ChiSox and Dbacks/Padres over 8. Go go go.

LOL at this picture.

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 05:12 PM

I wonder if they'll give him the ball...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hey <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dodgers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/will_smith30?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@will_ smith30</a> do I get to keep the ball <a href="https://t.co/wMeZrU2EYD">pic.twitter.com/wMeZrU2EYD</a></p>— Austin Donley (@adonley3) <a href="https://twitter.com/adonley3/status/1287174485523591168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >July 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**stevenash** · 07-26-20, 05:46 PM

The difference between being a Royals fan and a Red Sox fan is us Royals fans knew we were going to suck going in.

That Red Sox staff is in shambles without Sale and pretty much everybody else,

**turtledoves** · 07-26-20, 07:23 PM

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

The difference between being a Royals fan and a Red Sox fan is us Royals fans knew we were going to suck going in.

That Red Sox staff is in shambles without Sale and pretty much everybody else,

Yeah, it probably won't be the last time KC gets a contrarian Fund trigger and it definitely won't be the last time I lose with them.

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

this trend is on fire

MLB/20200726/SF/LAD/1 ?
MLB/20200726/MIA/PHI/1 W
MLB/20200726/DET/CIN/1 W
MLB/20200726/COL/TEX/1 W
MLB/20200725/SF/LAD/1 W
MLB/20200725/KC/CLE/1 W
MLB/20200725/DET/CIN/1 W
MLB/20200724/SF/LAD/1 W
MLB/20200724/MIA/PHI/1 W
MLB/20200724/DET/CIN/1 W
MLB/20200723/SF/LAD/1 L

Nice

**turtledoves** · 07-26-20, 07:37 PM

didn't play any of the selections, just found the trend now. was surprised by that dodgers opening ML. buy the regression, sell the regression, maybe it's time to play against the trend and take the dodgers.

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 08:29 PM

She brought home some whoppers.

They're not going to be as good as my home made super duper onion cheeseburgers, but they'll do.

**Ian** · 07-26-20, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by KVB

LOL at this picture.

Thanks for the point, KVB. The artist is Raymond Pettibon. Look him up. Here's a couple more of his pen and inks.

[IMG][/IMG]
[IMG][/IMG]

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 09:10 PM

2 days in and we already get one of these...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ouch, that can't feel good �� <a href="https://t.co/oRPJ3X6MVQ">pic.twitter.com/oRPJ3X6MVQ</a></p>— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCSGiants/status/1286862880944553986?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >July 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 09:15 PM

Check out the difference between the THC and the Total Cannabinoids.

CBD, just out of view, came out to .301%, 10.535 milligrams...

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 09:29 PM

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 09:35 PM

Had that little remix going on in the background.

This one too...

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 10:19 PM

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after 10 plays, with links to each play...

957	26-Jul	DET +172	1.72
959		KC +201	-1
961		BAL +169	1.69

		Sun	2.41

		Fri	-3
		Sat	-1.95

		Total	-2.54

It's going to be a blitz of games that last a mere two months so it will help to not go down too much , too soon.

**KVB** · 07-26-20, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...

Bruhhhh.

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/ImmediateBlaringBarebirdbat' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='876'></iframe><p> <a href="https://gfycat.com/immediateblaringbarebirdbat">via Gfycat</a></p>

**Ian** · 07-27-20, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by KVB

2 days in and we already get one of these...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ouch, that can't feel good �� <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/oRPJ3X6MVQ">pic.twitter.com/oRPJ3X6MVQ</a></p>— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/NBCSGiants/status/1286862880944553986?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >July 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Is that Mark Sanchez running the bases?

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by Ian

Is that Mark Sanchez running the bases?

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 11:58 AM

Marlins stuck in Philly, NYY can't fly into Phill because Marlins used the clubhouse.

CLEAN THE GOTDAMN CLUBHOUSE!!!!

That's two games off the board with Cinci players testing positive too now.

It's gonna be a long week for MLB.

**turtledoves** · 07-27-20, 12:47 PM

NYY

this one can't lose!

**turtledoves** · 07-27-20, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Check out the difference between the THC and the Total Cannabinoids.

CBD, just out of view, came out to .301%, 10.535 milligrams...

THCa? I could make those graphs in MS paint

**turtledoves** · 07-27-20, 12:53 PM

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

THCa? I could make those graphs in MS paint

Good question. I'm assuming the generic THC will be for all types.

Assuming.

Simple excel graphs from a column of data, but did you see the shape of both graphs?

Interesting consider the number of different plays in each graph.

I may have summed up your trend in 1/10th the plays.

Something a GAUGE might do.

Not saying the two are related, but you can see, and have to a degree, how a guage can help us with the deeper, micro transactions.

It was interesting when I graphed your results then the Fund graph generated later and I happen to look at it. With only 11 plays you just can't read much into it. But the similarites jumped out.

**turtledoves** · 07-27-20, 03:34 PM

They test separately for THC and THCa here in concentrates. Have to think that missing 10% is mostly THCa, what other cannabinoid could make up levels of that percentage?

Saw the shapes, didn't realize the data points were what I posted. Game dates span across 5 seasons. Maybe another Regis gif coincidence?

**turtledoves** · 07-27-20, 03:37 PM

Bout to hit this shit mixed with the rosin budder pressed at 187F Dr. Dre style

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 04:14 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

914	27-Jul	PIT +159
929		CHW +120

Good Luck

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 04:18 PM

Hey BG, I bet she works out...

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/BewitchedFearfulHapuka' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='684'></iframe><p> <a href="https://gfycat.com/bewitchedfearfulhapuka-hot-girl-jedrulag">via Gfycat</a></p>

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

...Game dates span across 5 seasons. Maybe another Regis gif coincidence?

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 04:20 PM

5 seasons, LMAO and here talking about the similar pattern.

So Regis weird to say the least.

**KVB** · 07-27-20, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

They test separately for THC and THCa here in concentrates. Have to think that missing 10% is mostly THCa, what other cannabinoid could make up levels of that percentage?...

Yeah, the concentrates do usually itemize the THCa.

New Batch of Cereal Milk and Larry Kush Burn.

But just as we are talking about this, the labels are new too, with a little terp profile...