Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**PittsburghPlayer** · 06-14-19, 10:48 AM

my comeback depends again on an FBI agent (not same as 2 plus years ago) that I spoke to a this morning, as I just do not see a recovery until I am vindicated
(fukking hated lawsuits and all, for keeping my Mother out of a nursing home - yes, I am evil)

part of me feels bad for using SBR as a journal and what I wanted at times to be my obit, was I supposed to shut the fukk up?

this has been 8 full years of hell in another week or so ...

looks like you fukkers are doing well
good

**turtledoves** · 06-14-19, 11:19 AM

might buy low

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-14-19, 03:53 PM

**turtledoves** · 06-14-19, 04:04 PM

**KVB** · 06-14-19, 04:10 PM

Kind of like the Liberty tonight, actually.

SF on the radar big time and Cubs RL will indeed trigger, likely going to hit -155 soon.

Went to the dispensary, amazing selection right now, good genetics, well grown, 30%ers.

Details later, I need to go mobile and head out again. Right when I leave, plays will trigger, they always do.

**KVB** · 06-14-19, 04:16 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

917	14-Jun	LAA +160
924		CHW -101

**KVB** · 06-14-19, 05:02 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

914

14-Jun

SF +130

Been buying this one on the way to +130.

**KVB** · 06-14-19, 05:53 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

911

14-Jun

CHC +1.5 (-155)

Have the beach on my mind.

**KVB** · 06-14-19, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

**turtledoves** · 06-14-19, 08:20 PM

creep and red light district are my faves

new drake songs drop at 11pm. i could cry i'm so happy

sitting on lynx and over

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-14-19, 10:36 PM

Guys, have you ever finger-banged a chick while she finger-banged your asshole until you both climaxed?

Or, have you ever finger-banged a chick while she finger-banged your asshole until you climaxed, but she didn’t, or she pretended to, because she was so turned off and disgusted that you even asked her to finger-bang your asshole?

Be honest.

I haven’t.

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 09:52 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953	15-Jun	ARI/WAS OVER 9 (-110)
957		STL/NYM OVER 8.5 (-117)
967		BOS/BAL OVER 8.5 (-115)
974		KC/MIN UNDER 9 (-105)

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-15-19, 10:08 AM

Good morning KVB.

Would you like some eggs for breakfast?

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 11:12 AM

Been busy this week, posting the minimum, still need to do daily results for both Funds.

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

965

15-Jun

LAA +1.5 (+100)

When I do get the results posted, it looks the RL Fund has been hanging in there.

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Good morning KVB.

Would you like some eggs for breakfast?

Thanks for offering, DDD, but after a quick jump rope session, I'll probably just go for the melons this morning, they look ripe...

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 11:17 AM

lmao made myself laugh.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-15-19, 11:24 AM

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by turtledoves

we build a model that makes forecasts for this season. it uses game data, season data, league data, rankings, averages, medians, odds data, etc as input.

what if we make a second model that takes as input the first model's forecast and also average margin of forecast error for the given teams playing?
or maybe all the first model's inputs, plus the error of the first model?

we know how the model has been performing and what teams/scenarios it is "off", so why not use data related to how the model is performing as the season progresses as input to a second model?

warriors tonight

It's all about that 50-50.

If we can hover around that, then any thing that get's too far out of whack should regress.

I've always said that if a bettor can get to 50-50, then the bettor is close to breaking through.

No matter the stat, no matter the metric, we can not only see it's performance, but we can see how it varies from what it "should" do.

The market knows this and some of those streaks can be brutal, and hard to recover from after the vig.

Remember I was all high on graphing the metrics, trying to design some type of bollinger style bands.

It's interesting thinking and goes back to the condition the condition is in thing...

The good thing is that we have some truly 50-50 metrics and you can see when those metrics start streaking that it's not what what's being brought that is fascinating, it's how it's being brought.

Some markets flush out the chasers...lol.

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 11:30 AM

The bad thing is that past performance doesn't always mean immediate future results.

We need something to fall back on that isn't just doubling units in hopes of a win streak...lol...something I considered with the Contrarian Fund posting...and you know how I fell about changing bet sizes.

Eggs or melons aside, I sent the runner for coffee...

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 11:50 AM

Dj Old Sch00l helping me cap this morn...

**turtledoves** · 06-15-19, 12:27 PM

thanks for the food for thought

been listening to even older school this morning,

**turtledoves** · 06-15-19, 12:28 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-15-19, 12:48 PM

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 12:53 PM

Some things are 50-50 but when you look at the big picture there are hardly any samples.

But they are still 50-50 and don't vary by much. They are like what I called functions. They are the culmination of market activity, like a settlement type thing so they don't need many samples, they just need the market to operate over time. It doesn't matter the team or players, they come and go but the market stays.

Even the Warriors of great who had that records season of wins weren't profitable on the moneyline, if I remember correctly.

Too much of a tangent, point is that it's funny how some of those 50-50 things don't come up often, but manage to sneak in at key times, often when other sports are helping to bring volume into the market. When there is a big football night, like the playoffs, it's surprising just how big it is for other sports, yet the stories remain under the radar.

A lot of meat to be had at those times. There was a time where I concluded that the only time to bet all year is to be patient and wait for the end of the year holidays and playoffs. Trying to catch the pile while it splashes and forget the rest of the year.

In one sport, using just the last 4 games points and the league median points, you can develop a way to predict the upset 33% of the time, almost all the time.

That means if succeeds almost 1 in every 3 tries, when predicting the upset. If it fails 6 times in a row (not likely and usually during those times when everyone sees that every favorite is winning), expect two upsets, they are coming. If it succeeds a lot, expect failure. What's crazy is that I can use other metrics, when the market is at a point like that, to help us get the winner. In the CFL, I wrote a couple of times about the market hiding an upset, once we hit a 10 point dog during that time. This is why patience is known as one of the biggest virtues of the game.

I think the 33% method can be done for all sports, all markets are the same. So busy but proton is in the back of my in pain procrastinating mind all the time.

Need to start the top secret Proton Project. Need to fire it up...

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 01:17 PM

Was going to post this with the catching up on results, that's right, get ready to get dosed with 4 days of spreadsheet results.

But I'm posting this by itself, because I love what they did.

You guys should have gone to Wrigley.

Starts about 13:40 and don't worry, Bobby's not going to show his

3 minutes into the song.

But John Mayer might...

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I'll see your sideboob and raise you Danny DeVito AND a small umbrella with a feather.

So I'm basically all in here...

Originally posted by KVB

Bump for when DDD gets back from the shitter.

So are you folding or what?

I'm all in here and want to take my feather umbrella to the beach.

It's like DDD took a second trip to the shitter...

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by PittsburghPlayer

my comeback depends again on an FBI agent (not same as 2 plus years ago) that I spoke to a this morning, as I just do not see a recovery until I am vindicated
(fukking hated lawsuits and all, for keeping my Mother out of a nursing home - yes, I am evil)

part of me feels bad for using SBR as a journal and what I wanted at times to be my obit, was I supposed to shut the fukk up?

this has been 8 full years of hell in another week or so ...

looks like you fukkers are doing well
good

Pitt in the house, glad to see you're kickin' and smellin' like a rose.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-15-19, 01:38 PM

Sorry KVB, I just got out of the hospital.

Let me check my cards.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-15-19, 01:40 PM

I call.

One side boob and two ass cheeks.

What you got?

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Sorry KVB, I just got out of the hospital.

Let me check my cards.

No fukkin way.

That is some crazy shit, let me guess, he cuts is O2 off just as he's about to jizz in clam.

Unreal.

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 02:06 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

969

15-Jun

TOR +1.5 (+108)

Like the offs here too. Angels looking ok, losing their lead though as the first game today, and teh Cubs are most definitely on the Rl radar, checking off all the boxes and summing up to qualify. I see money coming in on them though, and I want them at a better contrarian point. Cubs might be such a good play that the cat is out of the bag, and our value is eroding.

Let's see if it swings back or gets stuck.

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

I call.

One side boob and two ass cheeks.

What you got?

I had the same, but in the air...

I should win here, but your suit just plain ranks higher.

You win. Enjoy the feathered umbrella, asshole.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 06-15-19, 02:13 PM

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 04:02 PM

Here come those results, starting with Tuesday...

Trailing 10-1 in the top of the 9th, the Cubs scored 2 runs to make it 10-3, spoiling the UNDER 12.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after Tuesday, through 290 plays, touching -20 units again...

951	11-Jun	ARI +127	-1
952		ARI/PHI UNDER 9 (-105)	-1
954		MIA +131	-1
955		PIT +139	-1
958		CHC/COL UNDER 12 (-105)	-1
960		SF +135	1.35
963		OAK +141	1.41
975		MIL +108	-1

		Tue	-3.24

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Week 11	-17.75
		Mon	2.93

		Total	-20.61

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund after Tue, through 54 plays...

918	10-Jun	LAA +1.5 (+100)	1
963	11-Jun	OAK +1.5 (-140)	0.71

		Week 12	1.71

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Week 11	2.39

		Total	-5.41

Plenty more to post, with a controversial result on Thursday.

This...

**KVB** · 06-15-19, 04:12 PM

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after Wed, through 295 plays...

903	12-Jun	ARI +115	1.15
907		PIT +190	-1
911		OAK +143	1.43
921		CIN +129	1.29
923		MIL +125	1.25

		Wed	4.12

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Week 11	-17.75
		Mon	2.93
		Tue	-3.24

		Total	-16.49

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund after Wed, through 56 plays...

918	10-Jun	LAA +1.5 (+100)	1
963	11-Jun	OAK +1.5 (-140)	0.71
917	12-Jun	SEA +1.5 (+110)	1.1
923		MIL +1.5 (-160)	0.63

		Week 12	3.44

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Week 11	2.39

		Total	-3.68

Remember when the RL Fund was bouncing off -10 and -11, and I said it will sharpen? Seeing some results here, let's see if it can maintain.

Nice to turn the negative trend upside down...