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Shit, gotta go to breakfast.
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Good deal
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I'm on the over Basketball WNBA - Washington Mystics @ New York LibertyTotal O 164 -145 for Game
Bought a 1.5 in case Epiphanny Prince doesn't play. For your time.
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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Under 8.5 (-115)MLB [General]
07/21/18 07:05 PM ET
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8 (-106)MLB [General]
07/21/18 08:10 PM ET
Ch White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Under 8.5 (+100)MLB [General]
07/21/18 10:10 PM ET
Two more plays, feeling a bit robbed in the SBR book by about 1/2 point on each line, shit's moving.
Yes DDD, bacon, eggs, and ass.
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As I was looking at the lines here I was thinking that the bought points may not be worth it, but then BM just spiked to 165.5.
Just a rise in number so far, the ratios from my samples don't seem to be enough to classify as RLM even though there are a few more tickets and money on that Under.
I think there was some manipulation in the spread, but it could have been multiple different actors. I saw some RLM (though it was early and many bets weren't in yet so it's not convincing RLM), but then it was steamed down, below 5, early today.
Then a few moves at Pinny and we have a steam back up to -6 much more currently.
That feels like manipulation in an effort to get a number better than 6, but it doesn't have to be.Comment -
When you break it down by book, different books have different results when you figure things like steam and RLM because they have different customers.
That means that, when tracking these things, there will be different results as well. Some sharper books may be best to pay heed to RLM, others not so much.
This WNBA game has some mixed signals with a book right now, and a decent one as well, showing RLM with pressure on the +6.
So this line around 6 is feeling pretty sharp, for the books purpose. Overall, there is way more money on the -6, tickets too, than the +6.
This drift will likely trigger RLM on large dog plays, at some books.
Blowvada, for example, just dropped to 5.5 then adjusted back to +6 (-115). They are getting RLM but trying to protect a bit.Comment -
It could be that the only thing keeping this line down at 6 is that there is more money on the upset moneyline, or the books are holding it down on purpose.
That rarely bodes well for the favorite.Comment -
Left or right?
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Yes.Comment -
To be clear, I agree DDD.Comment -
Here's an example.
Arizona is low 140's around the world.
I expect that to go to -150.
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Fuk, picked up Det +135, but missed it for the contest, didn't get to SBR in time.
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It's ok DDD, they scored first.
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They also scored 2nd.Comment -
5-0, Detroit, DDD!!!
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Really wanted that in the contest, was going to make it X3 and it would have made a dent. Then I can live up to my shit talking about the second half of the MLB season and Doves was going to finally see some MLB winners.
Now my whole big plan of MLB redemption is under fire, the odds on the dogs are essential, even though the odds in the contest are shit, but I need the 3x bangers to hit.
It's one less winner on my small margin calculated comeback.
Hey, at least it won't be a loser in the contest.
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You will always be a winner in my book, KVB.Comment -
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meant to ask, how many minutes would it take you to find that stat? trying to gauge your tech capabilities. i can find it in secondsIt's all a part of the big picture, it's not what they bring...
Just take the two contrarian play I made in MLB yesterday. They paid, and one was the ridiculous OVER, early in the day. This emboldens those players and that market for the later games.
Those early games commanded multiple times the betting volume of the late games. (MLB versus WNBA)
But those later games, showing the contrarian factors almost in total, missing a few key items, like that convincing RLM movement we didn't see, were enough to for unsuspecting bettors to give back some MLB money.
This happens daily on many levels, this was just one of them.
I often refer to these, and similar situations as the markets natural give and take.
Having the market, even if it is lower volume, swing back last night give us a better chance with the Under I bet today.
Haven't been breaking down WNBA forecasts really too much this week, been working on the trading desk and market volume, action, and movement (or lack thereof).
Heading to breakfast, a little late, will look into that little WNBA stat in a bit.
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Remember when you almost one the pole vault DDD? Almost...
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KVB is probably some Indian guy who watches cricket. Bet he doesn't even know the rules of baseballComment -
KVB at MLB sports bettingComment -
I actually meant to tell you that I don't even have that stat right now, could take a long time, because of the need for the Friday.
I'm not running much of a campaign on the WNBA and we haven't used those kind of stats in awhile.
Back in the day, for almost any sport, but thinking about NBA and NCAAB in particular, one of the rules was "Tuesday and Thursday are favorites, Wednesday and Friday are underdogs" when we were looking at particular plays.
It was one other factor involved. That lasted, not quite weekly, but over time, for a long time. Eventually things started to even out as online gambling began to take hold.
There is no doubt you are going to eclipse me in tech capabilities, no doubt at all.
Going to input game facts that you can not download or get in a box score, but are created based on things you can get in box scores or betting results online, into an excel spreadsheet then literally hand create graphs and other summaries that are used many ways, some with regressed results.
It's true.
The database we need needs scores and stats, but it needs them under the context of the market environment, the easiest of which can be derived from spread and total betting results.
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