Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

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  • Fidel_CashFlow
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-03-12
    • 53970

    #66991
    Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
    Oh shit... you’re still here?

    OK.. I’ll come back later.
    Bogus
    Comment
    • BrickJames
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 05-05-11
      • 9749

      #66992
      Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
      I Slapped them cheeks

      Goodnight Daggles
      I need to slap some cheeks, I've been laid up with the flu for a week.

      Starting to feel better.

      Girlfriend getting pissed.
      Comment
      • KVB
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 05-29-14
        • 74817

        #66993
        Feel better Brickster and when you do get to motorboatin' and slappin'.

        My new computer came with free McAfee for a trial period. Not it's over and the popup says I'm at risk.

        The options are to "Buy" or to "Accept Risk"



        Whatever happened to "No Thanks" or "Cancel" or "Maybe Later"?

        Instead I have to "Accept Risk".

        Probably not buying, I think Windows is protection enough.

        Anyone disagree?

        Comment
        • KVB
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 05-29-14
          • 74817

          #66994
          I normally convert my data to a percentage chance to win for each MLB team, convert that into a moneyline, then compare the "line" to the market.

          The same approach is for NHL as well.

          Now, maybe you've noticed I haven't really been posting a price when I forecast these sports, I've been offering a score prediction. It's far less accurate, as you can't have partial points so I post an adjusted and rounded score. Pairing each each tenth or half point of a raw score point to a price, based on an amalgam of push rates being used by leading online books, or really just historical pricing, can also give a price difference to compare to the market...this can be done but it's far less about a number and so much more about a price of a number.

          All that said, I will probably try to make percentages in more posts but today I have the Yankees with a raw score of more than 6 points to with TB getting about 4 less points. We're looking at a predicted 8.5 point game, but the total has ticked the other way.

          But a 4 point predicted win for the Yankees showing a listed price of just over -150 clearly shows some estimated value, without even going further.

          I realize all of this is early season and these numbers are designed to compete with a more sophisticated group as more data is obtained and those groups start to enter the market in about a month.

          Regardless, I like the perceived value and I took both the OVER and the Yankees, contest too...

          N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
          04/03/18 04:05 PM ET


          Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
          04/03/18 04:05 PM ET

          The Yankees are a X3 bet.I have the OVER 7 but the contest only offered 7.5. I'll take it at plus money.



          Good Luck.

          Comment
          • KVB
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 05-29-14
            • 74817

            #66995
            Shit, that line is moving as I was looking for a picture.

            Fawk, trying to buy more but can only see more than -165 now.

            Talk about timing. Fukkin SBR posting and getting picks in a contest getting in the way. If I don't get my full position I'm will not be pleased.

            Comment
            • KVB
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 05-29-14
              • 74817

              #66996
              Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
              My girl getting a Brazilian wax today after work
              and you can’t have sex after for up to 2 days
              So I’m trying to stay awake till her lunch which is at 12:30
              and struggling mightily
              Fuk that.

              Shave her yourself, then eat her out and bust a nut inside that same day.

              Comment
              • KVB
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 05-29-14
                • 74817

                #66997
                Originally posted by KVB
                Good Luck Cash!

                I also took the Dodgers, managed to get them in the contest too.

                3-0 first inning lead...

                I was insisting to a friend that the 3-0 lead meant it was doomed. I acknowledged when the Dodgers went up 5-3 mid game that it would be a tough issue to settle but the Dodgers were still fukked.

                Check the scoreboard. Dodger gave up 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth to go to extra innings.

                The took a one run lead in the top of the 15th only to give up 2 runs in the bottom of the 15th.



                I swear it feels like some kind of Japanese game show...

                Comment
                • DiggityDaggityDo
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-30-08
                  • 81450

                  #66998
                  I’m getting ready KVB.



                  Comment
                  • KVB
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 05-29-14
                    • 74817

                    #66999
                    Wow she looks like she's already ready.

                    Comment
                    • Hugh Madbrough
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 01-08-12
                      • 834

                      #67000
                      Yo.....is that gun video real? and WTF did i just watch?
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #67001
                        Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                        <blockquote class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/BgzlFYehysx/" data-instgrm-version="8" style=" background:#FFF; border:0; border-radius:3px; box-shadow:0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width:658px; padding:0; width:99.375%; width:-webkit-calc(100% - 2px); width:calc(100% - 2px);"><div style="padding:8px;"> <div style=" background:#F8F8F8; line-height:0; margin-top:40px; padding:50.0% 0; text-align:center; width:100%;"> <div style=" background:url(data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAACwAA AAsCAMAAAApWqozAAAABGdBTUEAALGPC/xhBQAAAAFzUkdCAK7OHOkAAAAMUExURczMzPf399 fX1+bm5mzY9AMAAADiSURBVDjLvZXbEsMgCES5/P8/t9FuRVCRmU73JWlzosgSIIZURCjo/ad+EQJJB4Hv8BFt+IDpQoCx1wjOSBFhh2XssxEIY n3ulI/6MNReE07UIWJEv8UEOWDS88LY97kqyTliJKKtuYB bruAyVh5wOHiXmpi5we58Ek028czwyuQdLKPG1Bk b4NnM+VeAnfHqn1k4+GPT6uGQcvu2h2OVuIf/gWUFyy8OWEpdyZSa3aVCqpVoVvzZZ2VTnn2wU8qz VjDDetO90GSy9mVLqtgYSy231MxrY6I2gGqjrTY0 L8fxCxfCBbhWrsYYAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC); display:block; height:44px; margin:0 auto -44px; position:relative; top:-22px; width:44px;"></div></div><p style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px; margin-bottom:0; margin-top:8px; overflow:hidden; padding:8px 0 7px; text-align:center; text-overflow:ellipsis; white-space:nowrap;"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BgzlFYehysx/" style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px; text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">A post shared by Hood Movement (@hoodmovement)</a> on <time style=" font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px;" datetime="2018-03-27T00:08:52+00:00">Mar 26, 2018 at 5:08pm PDT</time></p></div></blockquote> <script async defer src="//www.instagram.com/embed.js"></script>
                        Dude,if she let's go...

                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #67002
                          Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
                          Even her boobs have boobs.
                          Comment
                          • KVB
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 05-29-14
                            • 74817

                            #67003
                            I have a three pik with Yankees, Over, and Houston to win. Bought it when the Yankees ML moved. Put Houston in the contest too.

                            N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
                            04/03/18 04:05 PM ET


                            Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
                            04/03/18 04:05 PM ET


                            Houston -216MLB [General]
                            04/03/18 08:10 PM ET

                            If NY hangs on it'll be up to Houston to come through.

                            I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers lose again tonight, and I have reasons for that, including, but not limited to(
                            ), those chasers insisting Kershaw must get a win combined with a public who also thinks LA must get a win, but I have no other plays, yet.

                            The early season forecast has Dodgers winning with about 5.5 runs to Zona's roughly 2.5 runs.

                            Seems like a lot of reasons to pick up the "Doyers" here tonight and a good set up for an early season loss.

                            The Doyers have an odd month ahead, setting an MLB record for the number of times they will play the same team in one month...that will be the Giants.

                            Tough call tonight on that Kershaw start, line seemed to have moved towards Zona. With time and games being played, the market brings more info. Game doesn't start for a couple of hours.










                            Comment
                            • turtledoves
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-27-17
                              • 3398

                              #67004
                              Originally posted by KVB
                              I normally convert my data to a percentage chance to win for each MLB team, convert that into a moneyline, then compare the "line" to the market.

                              The same approach is for NHL as well.

                              Now, maybe you've noticed I haven't really been posting a price when I forecast these sports, I've been offering a score prediction. It's far less accurate, as you can't have partial points so I post an adjusted and rounded score. Pairing each each tenth or half point of a raw score point to a price, based on an amalgam of push rates being used by leading online books, or really just historical pricing, can also give a price difference to compare to the market...this can be done but it's far less about a number and so much more about a price of a number.

                              All that said, I will probably try to make percentages in more posts but today I have the Yankees with a raw score of more than 6 points to with TB getting about 4 less points. We're looking at a predicted 8.5 point game, but the total has ticked the other way.

                              But a 4 point predicted win for the Yankees showing a listed price of just over -150 clearly shows some estimated value, without even going further.

                              I realize all of this is early season and these numbers are designed to compete with a more sophisticated group as more data is obtained and those groups start to enter the market in about a month.

                              Regardless, I like the perceived value and I took both the OVER and the Yankees, contest too...

                              N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
                              04/03/18 04:05 PM ET


                              Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
                              04/03/18 04:05 PM ET

                              The Yankees are a X3 bet.I have the OVER 7 but the contest only offered 7.5. I'll take it at plus money.



                              Good Luck.

                              thanks for the sports insights dude, i have a lot of thinking to do. screw likes the houston over
                              Comment
                              • KVB
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 05-29-14
                                • 74817

                                #67005
                                Doves.

                                I have Balty Houston at 9.5 runs for what it's worth. Saw the ml move toward Hou and Balty up 1-0.

                                I like Houston's chances now. It's our bet to win, the opposite of the shark situation.

                                Also, if the market players seeking balance, because this early on there is only so much to go on, are looking for an upset, with Balty playing Hou close early and it looks like that's the upset, then it could shift money toward the favorite in the other big line... the Dodgers.

                                Yet another reason for some other type of bettor to get the Dodgers. With the Cubs game postponed could the market be trying sell the Dodgers? On top of what else I've said about getting them?

                                It could be a sick upset if that's true. Let's see what happens in Houston and see if that game turns as the game in Arizona begins.

                                Just something to look out for.

                                After all, it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

                                Comment
                                • KVB
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 05-29-14
                                  • 74817

                                  #67006
                                  Comment
                                  • KVB
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 05-29-14
                                    • 74817

                                    #67007
                                    As far as current large lines, right now Boston looks suspect but with Houston already coming back I may just have to pass by that Dodger game.

                                    Comment
                                    • BrickJames
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 05-05-11
                                      • 9749

                                      #67008
                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                      Feel better Brickster and when you do get to motorboatin' and slappin'.

                                      My new computer came with free McAfee for a trial period. Not it's over and the popup says I'm at risk.

                                      The options are to "Buy" or to "Accept Risk"



                                      Whatever happened to "No Thanks" or "Cancel" or "Maybe Later"?

                                      Instead I have to "Accept Risk".

                                      Probably not buying, I think Windows is protection enough.

                                      Anyone disagree?

                                      Use Avast free security. Works great.

                                      Just like when you hump a half drunk bar skank you need to accept risk.
                                      Comment
                                      • DiggityDaggityDo
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 11-30-08
                                        • 81450

                                        #67009
                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                        I have a three pik with Yankees, Over, and Houston to win. Bought it when the Yankees ML moved. Put Houston in the contest too.

                                        N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
                                        04/03/18 04:05 PM ET


                                        Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
                                        04/03/18 04:05 PM ET


                                        Houston -216MLB [General]
                                        04/03/18 08:10 PM ET

                                        If NY hangs on it'll be up to Houston to come through.

                                        I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers lose again tonight, and I have reasons for that, including, but not limited to(
                                        ), those chasers insisting Kershaw must get a win combined with a public who also thinks LA must get a win, but I have no other plays, yet.

                                        The early season forecast has Dodgers winning with about 5.5 runs to Zona's roughly 2.5 runs.

                                        Seems like a lot of reasons to pick up the "Doyers" here tonight and a good set up for an early season loss.

                                        The Doyers have an odd month ahead, setting an MLB record for the number of times they will play the same team in one month...that will be the Giants.

                                        Tough call tonight on that Kershaw start, line seemed to have moved towards Zona. With time and games being played, the market brings more info. Game doesn't start for a couple of hours.










                                        Comment
                                        • DiggityDaggityDo
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 11-30-08
                                          • 81450

                                          #67010
                                          Comment
                                          • DiggityDaggityDo
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 11-30-08
                                            • 81450

                                            #67011
                                            Comment
                                            • Fidel_CashFlow
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-03-12
                                              • 53970

                                              #67012
                                              Oh so now you like women now ?
                                              ur such a prick , get out of my life
                                              Comment
                                              • Fidel_CashFlow
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-03-12
                                                • 53970

                                                #67013
                                                I’m sorry, come over and talk to me
                                                we don’t have to do anything, just at least talk to me

                                                Comment
                                                • Fidel_CashFlow
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-03-12
                                                  • 53970

                                                  #67014
                                                  Originally posted by KVB
                                                  Fuk that.

                                                  Shave her yourself, then eat her out and bust a nut inside that same day.

                                                  Damn KVB , never heard you talk so

                                                  Comment
                                                  • Fidel_CashFlow
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-03-12
                                                    • 53970

                                                    #67015
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Fidel_CashFlow
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-03-12
                                                      • 53970

                                                      #67016
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Fidel_CashFlow
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-03-12
                                                        • 53970

                                                        #67017
                                                        Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                                                        My god






                                                        Lord jesus
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Bostongambler
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 02-01-08
                                                          • 35581

                                                          #67018
                                                          Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                                                          Wtf Earl!!!!!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • KVB
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 05-29-14
                                                            • 74817

                                                            #67019
                                                            Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                                                            Damn KVB , never heard you talk so

                                                            Well, once you've learned how to load the Musket from Montana, there's no going back.

                                                            Comment
                                                            • KVB
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 05-29-14
                                                              • 74817

                                                              #67020
                                                              Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BrickJames
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 05-05-11
                                                                • 9749

                                                                #67021
                                                                Wtf is going on in here?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • dlowilly
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-09-16
                                                                  • 13862

                                                                  #67022
                                                                  Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
                                                                  Spectacular
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • KVB
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 05-29-14
                                                                    • 74817

                                                                    #67023
                                                                    I have the Chicago White Sox beating Toronto 4-3 but it's really a raw score of about a 1.5 win for CWS. It's low 4's to high 2's and I think it's bullshit.

                                                                    I have reasons to believe this is not exploiting a market inefficiency.

                                                                    I think it's enough bullshit for the early season prediction that I may be willing to do a 3X play on Toronto to win in the contest.

                                                                    That's a lot of muthafukkin chalk to chomp down on for sure...



                                                                    I did take White Sox +1.5 for even, but that's based on totally different metrics. It furthers my case a bit though, as those who smell the bullshit, if indeed it is a bullshit forecast, will try to save money with the -1.5.

                                                                    That becomes a form of greed and we know greed is not good in sports betting.

                                                                    Says the guy who may risk -736 units in the contest.

                                                                    CH White Sox +1.5 (+100)MLB [General]
                                                                    04/04/18 07:07 PM ET

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • KVB
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                                      • 74817

                                                                      #67024
                                                                      One strategy I've been dipping into and making it a point to post about has to do with identifying what makes bettors lose and avoiding those behaviors. I've posted quite about about that in the past.

                                                                      Now there's a next step and I've made it a point to reflect on them in the posts with specific games. Behaviors like chasing and greed are the downfall of any bettor.

                                                                      What if you could up the sophistication of your decision making by not only identifying the behaviors at work during a given market snapshot but also being able to identify those moments when the oddsmakers and bookmakers (which can be the same anymore) are trying to exploit those behaviors?

                                                                      It's a form of picking spots and you can bet your ass that as sure as the Lordy Almighty made midgets as well as Andre the Giant, King Kong Bundy, and Butterbean on the same planet, last night's Dodger upset was one of those spots.

                                                                      As the season progresses and more sophisticated decision makers enter the market, it gets tougher and tougher to clean up these spots...they lose some probability of win occurrence.

                                                                      But in terms of spots like these in any sport, there can be no better times than the first two weeks of a season and when the market swells, usually during playoffs and championships.



                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • KVB
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                                        • 74817

                                                                        #67025
                                                                        Think Tank this shit.

                                                                        Comment
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