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Feel better Brickster and when you do get to motorboatin' and slappin'.
My new computer came with free McAfee for a trial period. Not it's over and the popup says I'm at risk.
The options are to "Buy" or to "Accept Risk"
Whatever happened to "No Thanks" or "Cancel" or "Maybe Later"?
Instead I have to "Accept Risk".
Probably not buying, I think Windows is protection enough.
Anyone disagree?
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I normally convert my data to a percentage chance to win for each MLB team, convert that into a moneyline, then compare the "line" to the market.
The same approach is for NHL as well.
Now, maybe you've noticed I haven't really been posting a price when I forecast these sports, I've been offering a score prediction. It's far less accurate, as you can't have partial points so I post an adjusted and rounded score. Pairing each each tenth or half point of a raw score point to a price, based on an amalgam of push rates being used by leading online books, or really just historical pricing, can also give a price difference to compare to the market...this can be done but it's far less about a number and so much more about a price of a number.
All that said, I will probably try to make percentages in more posts but today I have the Yankees with a raw score of more than 6 points to with TB getting about 4 less points. We're looking at a predicted 8.5 point game, but the total has ticked the other way.
But a 4 point predicted win for the Yankees showing a listed price of just over -150 clearly shows some estimated value, without even going further.
I realize all of this is early season and these numbers are designed to compete with a more sophisticated group as more data is obtained and those groups start to enter the market in about a month.
Regardless, I like the perceived value and I took both the OVER and the Yankees, contest too...
N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
The Yankees are a X3 bet.I have the OVER 7 but the contest only offered 7.5. I'll take it at plus money.
Good Luck.
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Shit, that line is moving as I was looking for a picture.
Fawk, trying to buy more but can only see more than -165 now.
Talk about timing. Fukkin SBR posting and getting picks in a contest getting in the way. If I don't get my full position I'm will not be pleased.
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I was insisting to a friend that the 3-0 lead meant it was doomed. I acknowledged when the Dodgers went up 5-3 mid game that it would be a tough issue to settle but the Dodgers were still fukked.
Check the scoreboard. Dodger gave up 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth to go to extra innings.
The took a one run lead in the top of the 15th only to give up 2 runs in the bottom of the 15th.
I swear it feels like some kind of Japanese game show...
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I’m getting ready KVB.
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Wow she looks like she's already ready.
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Yo.....is that gun video real? and WTF did i just watch?Comment -
I have a three pik with Yankees, Over, and Houston to win. Bought it when the Yankees ML moved. Put Houston in the contest too.
N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
Houston -216MLB [General]
04/03/18 08:10 PM ET
If NY hangs on it'll be up to Houston to come through.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers lose again tonight, and I have reasons for that, including, but not limited to(
), those chasers insisting Kershaw must get a win combined with a public who also thinks LA must get a win, but I have no other plays, yet.
The early season forecast has Dodgers winning with about 5.5 runs to Zona's roughly 2.5 runs.
Seems like a lot of reasons to pick up the "Doyers" here tonight and a good set up for an early season loss.
The Doyers have an odd month ahead, setting an MLB record for the number of times they will play the same team in one month...that will be the Giants.
Tough call tonight on that Kershaw start, line seemed to have moved towards Zona. With time and games being played, the market brings more info. Game doesn't start for a couple of hours.
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thanks for the sports insights dude, i have a lot of thinking to do. screw likes the houston overI normally convert my data to a percentage chance to win for each MLB team, convert that into a moneyline, then compare the "line" to the market.
The same approach is for NHL as well.
Now, maybe you've noticed I haven't really been posting a price when I forecast these sports, I've been offering a score prediction. It's far less accurate, as you can't have partial points so I post an adjusted and rounded score. Pairing each each tenth or half point of a raw score point to a price, based on an amalgam of push rates being used by leading online books, or really just historical pricing, can also give a price difference to compare to the market...this can be done but it's far less about a number and so much more about a price of a number.
All that said, I will probably try to make percentages in more posts but today I have the Yankees with a raw score of more than 6 points to with TB getting about 4 less points. We're looking at a predicted 8.5 point game, but the total has ticked the other way.
But a 4 point predicted win for the Yankees showing a listed price of just over -150 clearly shows some estimated value, without even going further.
I realize all of this is early season and these numbers are designed to compete with a more sophisticated group as more data is obtained and those groups start to enter the market in about a month.
Regardless, I like the perceived value and I took both the OVER and the Yankees, contest too...
N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
The Yankees are a X3 bet.I have the OVER 7 but the contest only offered 7.5. I'll take it at plus money.
Good Luck.
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Doves.
I have Balty Houston at 9.5 runs for what it's worth. Saw the ml move toward Hou and Balty up 1-0.
I like Houston's chances now. It's our bet to win, the opposite of the shark situation.
Also, if the market players seeking balance, because this early on there is only so much to go on, are looking for an upset, with Balty playing Hou close early and it looks like that's the upset, then it could shift money toward the favorite in the other big line... the Dodgers.
Yet another reason for some other type of bettor to get the Dodgers. With the Cubs game postponed could the market be trying sell the Dodgers? On top of what else I've said about getting them?
It could be a sick upset if that's true. Let's see what happens in Houston and see if that game turns as the game in Arizona begins.
Just something to look out for.
After all, it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.
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As far as current large lines, right now Boston looks suspect but with Houston already coming back I may just have to pass by that Dodger game.
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Use Avast free security. Works great.Feel better Brickster and when you do get to motorboatin' and slappin'.
My new computer came with free McAfee for a trial period. Not it's over and the popup says I'm at risk.
The options are to "Buy" or to "Accept Risk"
Whatever happened to "No Thanks" or "Cancel" or "Maybe Later"?
Instead I have to "Accept Risk".
Probably not buying, I think Windows is protection enough.
Anyone disagree?
Just like when you hump a half drunk bar skank you need to accept risk.Comment -
I have a three pik with Yankees, Over, and Houston to win. Bought it when the Yankees ML moved. Put Houston in the contest too.
N.Y. Yankees -156MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay vs N.Y. Yankees Over 7.5 (+103)MLB [General]
04/03/18 04:05 PM ET
Houston -216MLB [General]
04/03/18 08:10 PM ET
If NY hangs on it'll be up to Houston to come through.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers lose again tonight, and I have reasons for that, including, but not limited to(), those chasers insisting Kershaw must get a win combined with a public who also thinks LA must get a win, but I have no other plays, yet.
The early season forecast has Dodgers winning with about 5.5 runs to Zona's roughly 2.5 runs.
Seems like a lot of reasons to pick up the "Doyers" here tonight and a good set up for an early season loss.
The Doyers have an odd month ahead, setting an MLB record for the number of times they will play the same team in one month...that will be the Giants.
Tough call tonight on that Kershaw start, line seemed to have moved towards Zona. With time and games being played, the market brings more info. Game doesn't start for a couple of hours.
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Oh so now you like women now ?
ur such a prick , get out of my lifeComment -
I’m sorry, come over and talk to me
we don’t have to do anything, just at least talk to me
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Wtf is going on in here?Comment -
I have the Chicago White Sox beating Toronto 4-3 but it's really a raw score of about a 1.5 win for CWS. It's low 4's to high 2's and I think it's bullshit.
I have reasons to believe this is not exploiting a market inefficiency.
I think it's enough bullshit for the early season prediction that I may be willing to do a 3X play on Toronto to win in the contest.
That's a lot of muthafukkin chalk to chomp down on for sure...
I did take White Sox +1.5 for even, but that's based on totally different metrics. It furthers my case a bit though, as those who smell the bullshit, if indeed it is a bullshit forecast, will try to save money with the -1.5.
That becomes a form of greed and we know greed is not good in sports betting.
Says the guy who may risk -736 units in the contest.
CH White Sox +1.5 (+100)MLB [General]
04/04/18 07:07 PM ET
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One strategy I've been dipping into and making it a point to post about has to do with identifying what makes bettors lose and avoiding those behaviors. I've posted quite about about that in the past.
Now there's a next step and I've made it a point to reflect on them in the posts with specific games. Behaviors like chasing and greed are the downfall of any bettor.
What if you could up the sophistication of your decision making by not only identifying the behaviors at work during a given market snapshot but also being able to identify those moments when the oddsmakers and bookmakers (which can be the same anymore) are trying to exploit those behaviors?
It's a form of picking spots and you can bet your ass that as sure as the Lordy Almighty made midgets as well as Andre the Giant, King Kong Bundy, and Butterbean on the same planet, last night's Dodger upset was one of those spots.
As the season progresses and more sophisticated decision makers enter the market, it gets tougher and tougher to clean up these spots...they lose some probability of win occurrence.
But in terms of spots like these in any sport, there can be no better times than the first two weeks of a season and when the market swells, usually during playoffs and championships.
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Think Tank this shit.
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