Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 05-09-16, 02:24 PM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:31 PM

hey DDD's

would you agree that its better to maybe have too much booty than having too small of one ?

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:36 PM

example

lol

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:39 PM

...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:45 PM

God Almighty

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 02:48 PM

thats beautiful flow

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 02:51 PM

KVB is the real McCoy

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:51 PM

i know.... its hard to choose ...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

God Almighty

*only for research*

without seeing faces .... Id have to go (from left to right)

1. 4. 3. 2

IDK, this one is tough

**KVB** · 05-09-16, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

skimmed through the thread with khan. he has a right to be skeptical of kvb's market analysis. perfectly fine to disagree or even think kvb is full of shit with his writings. not really cool to make up a bunch lies about his results though or caution other posters away from kvb.

if posters talk about things like FG%, ATS results, these are concrete things that can be tracked and proven. what kvb writes about the market and sharps cannot be confirmed that way. we can't go to espn and look up what the sharps are doing, how are we to take kvb's word for it? you can't prove the reasons for line movement, maybe that's why people naturally reject any analysis into it.

Exactly.

What I do, however, is give a prediction, a forecast, almost every time, and often explain where other forecasts sit.

You want to confirm whether a sharp is doing what I say, realize that a sharp is saying it. You don’t have to take my word, just look at the results.

I have said in the CFL thread that readers will be fine by just following my forecast and that my analysis will likely have them perform even better. This has been true of all my analysis, and has been tracked.

I am giving a sharp forecast, whether someone believes it or not, makes little difference to me. There was definitely more teachable moments in the CFL thread, because it was season long and designed that way. I almost went into how to make a basic line there, but withheld.

At one point, there are only so many things I can reveal about the line construction; and that is why my writings focus on the marketplace. Recently I haven’t taught as much but go ahead and track anything outside of the CFL thread; the forecast results are the same.

Anyone who actually read the CFL thread should get where I am coming from; that is the reason I tracked the whole season…mind you…for the pure benefit of the SBR Forum.

I put my forecast and prediction out there like any other poster, my performance is fine. If a reader questions percentages or specific stats, they could just ask.

If they question the performance, then they should read for themselves.

I would say the proof is in the pudding, but piece of shit lying posters Gheghis Kahn wait many months for the pudding to get old, then lie like mutherfukkers about the flavor.

It’s more than that; dude is just trying to discredit me. Use words like tout then ask me, the author of the thread, to name a poster who profited from thread? How the hell would I know? I know the thread made profit and if readers followed my conclusions, they made profit too.

So da fuk is wrong with that guy?

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

Almost everyone forecasting with numbers agrees that the Spurs are the winner and they do vary by how much. Like I said before, I have them winning by 10 points and the line is only -2. Less dynamic models that are either triggering bets or representative of those bettors who follow subjectively do have it much closer, but still a San Antonio win.

"Almost everyone"? The only source I see is KVB. I guess that is fair though, you did say almost, acknowledging some people might forecast OKC. Are you making assumptions based on the line being offered in the big nba market? Friends you know who also model?

"I have them winning by 10 points" - All you share is the output of your model, I don't see any insight into the decisionmaking or the secrets. Mention no stats, input variables. I guess if it's information you want to keep secret, we have to take your word that your model is valuable. Even if you post 1000 winners on the forums, we can't know for sure that your model has shown to be profitable through backtesting or anything like that. Or goofy stuff like Z scores or G scores and other stuff I haven't learned about yet. How do we know your model has been tested to be profitable?

"Less dynamic models....bettors who follow subjectively do have it much closer" - Bettors who follow subjectively could be a large set of people. How can you assume they have it much closer which differs from your stronger position on spurs? How do you reach your conclusions on the mindset of subjective gamblers?

"heavy action on both road favorites....value to many sharp bettors." - How do we know there is heavy action? Where is your source? Value to sharp bettors assumes you know who the sharp bettors are, what an accurate prediction is. How do we know either of these?

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 02:57 PM

your 4 looks the drunkest

1 2 4 3

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 02:59 PM

is Grapes trollin K-ViBBs

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

God Almighty

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

*only for research*

without seeing faces .... Id have to go (from left to right)

1. 4. 3. 2

IDK, this one is tough

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

your 4 looks the drunkest

1 2 4 3

we both agree on the first one though

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Exactly.

What I do, however, is give a prediction, a forecast, almost every time, and often explain where other forecasts sit.

You want to confirm whether a sharp is doing what I say, realize that a sharp is saying it. You don’t have to take my word, just look at the results.

I have said in the CFL thread that readers will be fine by just following my forecast and that my analysis will likely have them perform even better. This has been true of all my analysis, and has been tracked.

I am giving a sharp forecast, whether someone believes it or not, makes little difference to me. There was definitely more teachable moments in the CFL thread, because it was season long and designed that way. I almost went into how to make a basic line there, but withheld.

At one point, there are only so many things I can reveal about the line construction; and that is why my writings focus on the marketplace. Recently I haven’t taught as much but go ahead and track anything outside of the CFL thread; the forecast results are the same.

Anyone who actually read the CFL thread should get where I am coming from; that is the reason I tracked the whole season…mind you…for the pure benefit of the SBR Forum.

I put my forecast and prediction out there like any other poster, my performance is fine. If a reader questions percentages or specific stats, they could just ask.

If they question the performance, then they should read for themselves.

I would say the proof is in the pudding, but piece of shit lying posters Gheghis Kahn wait many months for the pudding to get old, then lie like mutherfukkers about the flavor.

It’s more than that; dude is just trying to discredit me. Use words like tout then ask me, the author of the thread, to name a poster who profited from thread? How the hell would I know? I know the thread made profit and if readers followed my conclusions, they made profit too.

So da fuk is wrong with that guy?

good answers, that khan guy is whack for saying those things, i guess i was questioning you in general as a gambler. i guess you are just a gambler sharing your forecast and insight, it isn't required of you to prove to the world how you came to reach all your conclusions. i do appreciate the insight and getting posters to think in different ways. i'm sure your posts go over a lot of guys heads, and they just want to talk about the game and try to pick a winner.

**KVB** · 05-09-16, 03:02 PM

I should add that I have been in the past and am in contact with some very heavy market hitters, and their groups.

I also should add that I understand how each of them handicap, as well as how different levels of bettors operate as they go through a learning curve.

There are as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers, but the market is excellent at rounding groups up, on a regular basis.

Readers don't have to believe me, but to believe Kahn is likely to steer them wrong, as I have documented results that the piece of shit lying poster is lying about.

The pudding is good, Kahn is a piece of shit and still have no idea why he does it.

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:04 PM

good answers KVB, i'm sold

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:06 PM

beating the lines back then was easy. my grandma could hit 60% lines used to be so soft

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

good answers, that khan guy is whack for saying those things, i guess i was questioning you in general as a gambler. i guess you are just a gambler sharing your forecast and insight, it isn't required of you to prove to the world how you came to reach all your conclusions. i do appreciate the insight and getting posters to think in different ways. i'm sure your posts go over a lot of guys heads, and they just want to talk about the game and try to pick a winner.

the art of it is incorporating many dif elements ...
from KVB's market analysis to match up's,trends,nagging injuries,officials, and dear I say "gut feeling"
don't discredit anything that can help you get that edge. When you watch teams play closely you can help
gauge how one teams designs will work against another teams set up ...

The key to me though is limiting the amount of daily plays.

The End.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 05-09-16, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

hey DDD's

would you agree that its better to maybe have too much booty than having too small of one ?

Fidels, yes. I'm not a big fan of bony ass syndrome.

But...

There can also be TOO MUCH of a good thing.

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:16 PM

i know some heavy market hitters too

and i mean heavy

**KVB** · 05-09-16, 03:19 PM

You want a handicapping secret...

The best handicapper in the world is not the math major trying to determine motivations.

He's the psychology major with a minor in math.

Top market traders from around the world, and many you've heard on CNBC and elsewhere often mention the psychology of the market dynamics.

There is a reason for this and sports is really just another market.

Grapes, I read those bold above after writing the other posts, I will answer you as best I can later, I have to go. I will say that I did want to put more specifics into the layers of handicapping, for more sports. It takes time I have been poor a that. Readers deserve more.

That said, I feel I have been stronger in the season long thread with teaching points. There is evidence as to the credibility of the market analysis. I, not sure, but I don't think there was a single play in bold whereby I didn't correctly predict the line movement. I have column in the quarterly summaries that tracked it. What about beating the closing line...some readers take that into consideration.

And what reader could forget when I asked the forum..."do you know where your sharp money is?" when dealing with a total.

Those were teaching points, anticipated from market, and posted as such. I've only seen better in certain corners of the Think Tank...period.

Read the CFL thread Grapes, then you'll see why Kahn is a piece of shit.

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by KVB

You want a handicapping secret...

The best handicapper in the world is not the math major trying to determine motivations.

He's the psychology major with a minor in math.

Top market traders from around the world, and many you've heard on CNBC and elsewhere often mention the psychology of the market dynamics.

There is a reason for this and sports is really just another market.

Grapes, I read those bold above after writing the other posts, I will answer you as best I can later, I have to go. I will say that I did want to put more specifics into the layers of handicapping, for more sports. It takes time I have been poor a that. Readers deserve more.

That said, I feel I have been stronger in the season long thread with teaching points. There is evidence as to the credibility of the market analysis. I, not sure, but I don't think there was a single play in bold whereby I didn't correctly predict the line movement. I have column in the quarterly summaries that tracked it. What about beating the closing line...some readers take that into consideration.

And what reader could forget when I asked the forum..."do you know where your sharp money is?" when dealing with a total.

Those were teaching points, anticipated from market, and posted as such. I've only seen better in certain corners of the Think Tank...period.

Read the CFL thread Grapes, then you'll see why Kahn is a piece of shit.

readers deserve more

this fukkin guy

appreciate sharing knowledge

you answered the questions well, don't feel the need to respond any further. one day i will be a pro gambler and clock more dough than you and your friends combined. bill gates will be my butler.

never bothered to check out the cfl thread much, don't care about cfl. will give it a browse though. i will write real time software to scrape twitter and figure out the social trends, you use it to play the stocks, give me 50%.

**KVB** · 05-09-16, 03:30 PM

Posts like this...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3116443-cfl-p17.html#post24416573

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:30 PM

might be going to the cubs game tonight, watch them lose

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:31 PM

Killin eVery Bookie

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:37 PM

...Remember light, it is particle vs. wave and I may view these markets through an unfamiliar lens...

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 03:38 PM

kvb the zen master

**JMon** · 05-09-16, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

I skmimed over it myself last night but considering I had eaten 1 and a half very potent brownies
I was a bit too medicated to read through all of it. Def some lengthy bickering back and forth
just hope the right thing is done in the end and thats KVB coming in here
and throat punching Grapes for doubting him

Fidel, throat punches can be deadly...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

...Remember light, it is particle vs. wave and I may view these markets through an unfamiliar lens...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 04:30 PM

So.......

this Raptors/Heat game 4 tonight........

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 04:54 PM

**PerfectGrape** · 05-09-16, 05:24 PM

Looking like an under 194 pound play

might hit 194.5

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 05:32 PM

why the under Grapes ?

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-09-16, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

Looking like an under 194 pound play

might hit 194.5

only play im liking in that one is the over 194....
I think this is the game the guards come out and play
both big men out for the full game this time around
and each team has most likely designed a new offensive game plan around the 7 footers being gone

With most overs, prolly come down to free throws made or if the refs turn off the whistles